Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

A survey of terahertz applications in cultural heritage conservation science

The authors present a review of the advances that have been made to establish terahertz applications in the cultural heritage conservation sector over the last several years. This includes material spectroscopy, 2D and 3D imaging and tomographic studies, using a broad range of terahertz sources demonstrating the breadth and application of this burgeoning community.

Skilloscopy: Bayesian modeling of decision makers' skill

This paper proposes and demonstrates an approach, Skilloscopy, to the assessment of decision makers. In an increasingly sophisticated, connected and information-rich world, decision making is becoming both more important and more difficult. At the same time, modelling decision-making on computers is becoming more feasible and of interest, partly because the information-input to those decisions is increasingly on record. The aims of Skilloscopy are to rate and rank decision makers in a domain relative to each other: the aims do not include an analysis of why a decision is wrong or suboptimal, nor the modelling of the underlying cognitive process of making the decisions. In the proposed method a decision-maker is characterised by a probability distribution of their competence in choosing among quantifiable alternatives. This probability distribution is derived by classic Bayesian inference from a combination of prior belief and the evidence of the decisions. Thus, decision-makers’ skills may be better compared, rated and ranked. The proposed method is applied and evaluated in the gamedomain of Chess. A large set of games by players across a broad range of the World Chess Federation (FIDE) Elo ratings has been used to infer the distribution of players’ rating directly from the moves they play rather than from game outcomes. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the Chess community regarding the stability of the Elo rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The method of Skilloscopy may be applied in any decision domain where the value of the decision-options can be quantified.

Sub-surface terahertz imaging through uneven surfaces: visualizing Neolithic wall paintings in Çatalhöyük

Pulsed terahertz imaging is being developed as a technique to image obscured mural paintings. Due to significant advances in terahertz technology, portable systems are now capable of operating in unregulated environments and this has prompted their use on archaeological excavations. August 2011 saw the first use of pulsed terahertz imaging at the archaeological site of Çatalhöyük, Turkey, where mural paintings dating from the Neolithic period are continuously being uncovered by archaeologists. In these particular paintings the paint is applied onto an uneven surface, and then covered by an equally uneven surface. Traditional terahertz data analysis has proven unsuccessful at sub-surface imaging of these paintings due to the effect of these uneven surfaces. For the first time, an image processing technique is presented, based around Gaussian beam-mode coupling, which enables the visualization of the obscured painting.

Terahertz deconvolution

The ability to retrieve information from different layers within a stratified sample using terahertz pulsed reflection imaging and spectroscopy has traditionally been resolution limited by the pulse width available. In this paper, a deconvolution algorithm is presented which circumvents this resolution limit, enabling deep sub-wavelength and sub-pulse width depth resolution. The algorithm is explained through theoretical investigation, and demonstrated by reconstructing signals reflected from boundaries in stratified materials that cannot be resolved directly from the unprocessed time-domain reflection signal. Furthermore, the deconvolution technique has been used to recreate sub-surface images from a stratified sample: imaging the reverse side of a piece of paper.

Terahertz pulse imaging of stratified architectural materials for cultural heritage studies

Terahertz pulse imaging (TPI) is a novel noncontact, nondestructive technique for the examination of cultural heritage artifacts. It has the advantage of broadband spectral range, time-of-flight depth resolution, and penetration through optically opaque materials. Fiber-coupled, portable, time-domain terahertz systems have enabled this technique to move out of the laboratory and into the field. Much like the rings of a tree, stratified architectural materials give the chronology of their environmental and aesthetic history. This work concentrates on laboratory models of stratified mosaics and fresco paintings, specimens extracted from a neolithic excavation site in Catalhoyuk, Turkey, and specimens measured at the medieval Eglise de Saint Jean-Baptiste in Vif, France. Preparatory spectroscopic studies of various composite materials, including lime, gypsum and clay plasters are presented to enhance the interpretation of results and with the intent to aid future computer simulations of the TPI of stratified architectural material. The breadth of the sample range is a demonstration of the cultural demand and public interest in the life history of buildings. The results are an illustration of the potential role of TPI in providing both a chronological history of buildings and in the visualization of obscured wall paintings and mosaics.

Deconvolution: imaging the unturned page

A custom-built deconvolution technique for pulsed terahertz imaging is presented in this paper. It is examined as a tool for the measurement of thin transparent films. The power of the technique is illustrated by using the impulse response function, calculated in the deconvolution process, to recreate terahertz images of both sides of a piece of paper derived from one single terahertz reflection measurement.

Terahertz pulse investigation of paleolithic wall etchings

Results are presented of an examination of flow rock-covered Paleoloithic cave art using time-domain terahertz reflectometry.