Selection-mutation balance models with epistatic selection

We present an application of birth-and-death processes on configuration spaces to a generalized mutation4 selection balance model. The model describes the aging of population as a process of accumulation of mu5 tations in a genotype. A rigorous treatment demands that mutations correspond to points in abstract spaces. 6 Our model describes an infinite-population, infinite-sites model in continuum. The dynamical equation which 7 describes the system, is of Kimura-Maruyama type. The problem can be posed in terms of evolution of states 8 (differential equation) or, equivalently, represented in terms of Feynman-Kac formula. The questions of interest 9 are the existence of a solution, its asymptotic behavior, and properties of the limiting state. In the non-epistatic 10 case the problem was posed and solved in [Steinsaltz D., Evans S.N., Wachter K.W., Adv. Appl. Math., 2005, 11 35(1)]. In our model we consider a topological space X as the space of positions of mutations and the influence of epistatic potentials

Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure.

Investigating the causes of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climate changes

The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv equivalent to 10(6) ms(3) s(-1)) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate sonic weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs.

Synthesis and evaluation of a solid supported molecular tweezer type receptor for cholesterol

A new macroporous stationary phase bearing 'tweezer' receptors that exhibit specificity for cholesterol has been constructed from rigid multifunctional vinylic monomers derived from 3,5-dibromobenzoic acid, propargyl alcohol and cholesterol. The synthesis of the novel tweezer monomer that contains two cholesterol receptor arms using palladium mediated Sonogashira methodologies and carbonate couplings is reported. The subsequent co-polymerisation of this tweezer monomer with a range of cross-linking agents via a 'pseudo' molecular imprinting approach afforded a diverse set of macroporous materials. The selectivity and efficacy of these materials for cholesterol binding was assessed using a chromatographic screening process. The optimum macroporous stationary phase material composition was subsequently used to construct monolithic solid phase extraction columns for use in the selective extraction of cholesterol from multi-component mixtures of structurally related steroids.

Age-related increases in circulating inflammatory markers in men are independent of BMI, blood pressure and blood lipid concentrations

Objective: To examine whether age-related increase in concentrations of circulating inflammatory mediators is due to concurrent increases in cardiovascular risk factors or is independent of these. Methods and results: Cytokines (IL-6, IL-18), chemokines (6Ckine, MCP-1, IP-10), soluble adhesion molecules (sICAM-1, sVCAM-1, sE-selectin) and adipokines (adiponectin) were measured in the plasma of healthy male subjects aged 18-84 years (n = 162). These were related to known cardiovascular risk factors (age, BMI, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, plasma total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol and triacylglycerol concentrations) in order to identify significant associations. Plasma concentrations of sVCAM-1, sE-selectin, IL-6, IL-18, MCP-1, 6Ckine, IP-10 and adiponectin, but not sICAM-1, were significantly positively correlated with age, as well as with several other cardiovascular risk factors. The correlations with other risk factors disappeared when age was controlled for. In contrast, the correlations with age remained significant for sVCAM-1, IL-6, MCP-1, 6Ckine and IP-10 when other cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for. Conclusions: Plasma concentrations of some inflammatory markers (sVCAM-1, IL-6, MCP-L 6Ckine, IP-10) are positively correlated with age, independent of other cardiovascular risk factors. This suggests that age-related inflammation may not be driven by recognised risk factors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro evaluation of the prebiotic activity of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel

The prebiotic effect of a pectic oligosaccharide-rich extract enzymatically derived from bergamot peel was studied using pure and mixed cultures of human faecal bacteria. This was compared to the prebiotic effect of fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS). Individual species of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli responded positively to the addition of the bergamot extract, which contained oligosaccharides in the range of three to seven. Fermentation studies were also carried out in controlled pH batch mixed human faecal cultures and changes in gut bacterial groups were monitored over 24 h by fluorescent in situ hybridisation, a culture-independent microbial assessment. Addition of the bergamot oligosaccharides (BOS) resulted in a high increase in the number of bifidobacteria and lactobacilli, whereas the clostridial population decreased. A prebiotic index (PI) was calculated for both FOS and BOS after 10 and 24 h incubation. Generally, higher PI scores were obtained after 10 h incubation, with BOS showing a greater value (6.90) than FOS (6.12).

Effects of variation in the palm stearin: palm olein ratio on the crystallisation of a low-trans shortening

Changes in the theological properties during crystallisation and in the crystal size and morphology of blends containing rapeseed oil with varying percentages of palm stearin (POs) and palm olein (POf) have been studied. The crystals formed from all three blends were studied by confocal laser scanning microscopy, light microscopy and environmental scanning electron microscopy, which revealed the development of clusters of 3-5 individual elementary "spherulites" in the early stages of crystallisation. The saturated triacylglycerol content of the solid crystals separated at the onset of crystallisation was much greater than that in the total fat. Fat blends with a higher content of palm stearin had a more rapid nucleation rate when observed by light microscopy, and this caused an earlier change in the rheological properties of the fat during crystallisation. Using a low torque amplitude (0.005 Pa, which was within the linear viscoelastic region of all samples studied) and a frequency of 1 Hz, the viscoelastic properties of melted fat during cooling were studied. All samples, prior to crystallisation, showed weak viscoelastic liquid behaviour (G '', loss modulus >G', storage modulus). After crystallisation a more "solid like" behaviour was observed (G' similar to or greater than G ''). The blend having the highest concentration of POs was found to have the earliest onset of crystallisation (27% w/w POs; 12 mins, 22% w/w POs; 13.5 mins, 17% w/w POs, 15 mins, respectively). However, there were no significant differences in the time to the point when G' became greater than G' among the three blends. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of composition on fat rheology and crystallisation

The crystallisation behaviour of three fat blends, comprising a commercial shortening, a blend of fats with a very low trans fatty acid content ("low-trans") and a blend including hardened rapeseed oil with a relatively high trans fatty acid content ("high-trans") was studied. Molten fats were lowered to a temperature of 31 degrees C and stirred for 0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 min. Samples were removed and their rheological properties studied, using a controlled stress rheometer, employing a frequency sweep procedure. Effects of the progressive crystallisation at 31 degrees C on the melting profile of fat samples removed from the stirred vessel and solidified at -20 degrees C were also studied by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The rheological profiles obtained suggested that all of the fats studied had weak viscoelastic "liquid" structures when melted, but these changed to structures perceived by the rheometer as weak viscoelastic "gels" in the early stages of crystallisation (G' (storage modulus) > G" (loss modulus) over most of the measured frequency range). These subsequently developed into weak viscoelastic semi-solids, showing frequency dependent behaviour on further crystallisation. These changes in behaviour were interpreted as changes from a small number of larger crystals "cross-linking" in a liquid matrix to a larger number of smaller crystals packed with a "slip plane" of liquid oil between them. The rate of crystallisation of the three fats was in the order high trans > low-trans > commercial shortening. Changes in the DSC melting profile due to fractionation of triacylglycerols during the crystallisation at 31 degrees C were evident for all three fats. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.