Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Genetic association analysis of vitamin D pathway with obesity traits

Objective:Observational studies have examined the link between vitamin D deficiency and obesity traits. Some studies have reported associations between vitamin D pathway genes such as VDR, GC and CYP27B1 with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC); however, the findings have been inconsistent. Therefore, we investigated the involvement of vitamin D metabolic pathway genes in obesity-related traits in a large population-based study.Methods:We undertook a comprehensive analysis between 100 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) in genes encoding for DHCR7, CYP2R1, VDBP, CYP27B1, CYP27A1, CYP24A1, VDR and RXRG, and obesity traits in 5224 participants (aged 45 years) in the 1958 British birth cohort (1958BC). We further extended our analyses to investigate the associations between SNPs and obesity traits using the summary statistics from the GIANT (Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits) consortium (n=123 865).Results:In the 1958BC (n=5224), after Bonferroni correction, none of the tagSNPs were associated with obesity traits except for one tagSNP from CYP24A1 that was associated with waist-hip ratio (WHR) (rs2296239, P=0.001). However, the CYP24A1 SNP was not associated with BMI-adjusted WHR (WHRadj) in the 1958BC (rs2296239, P=1.00) and GIANT results (n=123 865, P=0.18). There was also no evidence for an interaction between the tagSNPs and obesity on BMI, WC, WHR and WHRadj in the 1958BC. In the GIANT consortium, none of the tagSNPs were associated with obesity traits.Conclusions:Despite a very large study, our findings suggest that the vitamin D pathway genes are unlikely to have a major role in obesity-related traits in the general population.

Family-based association analysis with ordered categorical phenotypes, covariates and interactions

Genetic association analyses of family-based studies with ordered categorical phenotypes are often conducted using methods either for quantitative or for binary traits, which can lead to suboptimal analyses. Here we present an alternative likelihood-based method of analysis for single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes and ordered categorical phenotypes in nuclear families of any size. Our approach, which extends our previous work for binary phenotypes, permits straightforward inclusion of covariate, gene-gene and gene-covariate interaction terms in the likelihood, incorporates a simple model for ascertainment and allows for family-specific effects in the hypothesis test. Additionally, our method produces interpretable parameter estimates and valid confidence intervals. We assess the proposed method using simulated data, and apply it to a polymorphism in the c-reactive protein (CRP) gene typed in families collected to investigate human systemic lupus erythematosus. By including sex interactions in the analysis, we show that the polymorphism is associated with anti-nuclear autoantibody (ANA) production in females, while there appears to be no effect in males.

Candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility show enriched association within a large genome-wide association study for BMI

Before the advent of genome-wide association studies (GWASs), hundreds of candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility had been identified through a variety of approaches. We examined whether those obesity candidate genes are enriched for associations with body mass index (BMI) compared with non-candidate genes by using data from a large-scale GWAS. A thorough literature search identified 547 candidate genes for obesity-susceptibility based on evidence from animal studies, Mendelian syndromes, linkage studies, genetic association studies and expression studies. Genomic regions were defined to include the genes ±10 kb of flanking sequence around candidate and non-candidate genes. We used summary statistics publicly available from the discovery stage of the genome-wide meta-analysis for BMI performed by the genetic investigation of anthropometric traits consortium in 123 564 individuals. Hypergeometric, rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment analysis tests were used to test for the enrichment of association in candidate compared with non-candidate genes. The hypergeometric test of enrichment was not significant at the 5% P-value quantile (P = 0.35), but was nominally significant at the 25% quantile (P = 0.015). The rank tail-strength and gene-set enrichment tests were nominally significant for the full set of genes and borderline significant for the subset without SNPs at P < 10(-7). Taken together, the observed evidence for enrichment suggests that the candidate gene approach retains some value. However, the degree of enrichment is small despite the extensive number of candidate genes and the large sample size. Studies that focus on candidate genes have only slightly increased chances of detecting associations, and are likely to miss many true effects in non-candidate genes, at least for obesity-related traits.

Genetic variation in GABRB3 is associated with Asperger syndrome and multiple endophenotypes relevant to autism.

BACKGROUND: Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) are associated with deficits in social interaction and communication, alongside repetitive, restricted, and stereotyped behavior. ASC is highly heritable. The gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)-ergic system has been associated consistently with atypicalities in autism, in both genetic association and expression studies. A key component of the GABA-ergic system is encoded by the GABRB3 gene, which has been previously implicated both in ASC and in individual differences in empathy. METHODS: In this study, 45 genotyped single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within GABRB3 were tested for association with Asperger syndrome (AS), and related quantitative traits measured through the following tests: the Empathy Quotient (EQ), the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ), the Systemizing Quotient-Revised (SQ-R), the Embedded Figures Test (EFT), the Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test (RMET), and the Mental Rotation Test (MRT). Two-loci, three-loci, four-loci haplotype analyses, and one seven-loci haplotype analysis were also performed in the AS case--control sample. RESULTS: Three SNPs (rs7180158, rs7165604, rs12593579) were significantly associated with AS, and two SNPs (rs9806546, rs11636966) were significantly associated with EQ. Two SNP-SNP pairs, rs12438141-rs1035751 and rs12438141-rs7179514, showed significant association with variation in the EFT scores. One SNP-SNP pair, rs7174437-rs1863455, was significantly associated with variation in the MRT scores. Additionally, a few haplotypes, including a 19 kb genomic region that formed a linkage disequilibrium (LD) block in our sample and contained several nominally significant SNPs, were found to be significantly associated with AS. CONCLUSION: The current study confirms the role of GABRB3 as an important candidate gene in both ASC and normative variation in related endophenotypes.

High throughput, high resolution selection of polymorphic microsatellite loci for multiplex analysis

Background Large-scale genetic profiling, mapping and genetic association studies require access to a series of well-characterised and polymorphic microsatellite markers with distinct and broad allele ranges. Selection of complementary microsatellite markers with non-overlapping allele ranges has historically proved to be a bottleneck in the development of multiplex microsatellite assays. The characterisation process for each microsatellite locus can be laborious and costly given the need for numerous, locus-specific fluorescent primers. Results Here, we describe a simple and inexpensive approach to select useful microsatellite markers. The system is based on the pooling of multiple unlabelled PCR amplicons and their subsequent ligation into a standard cloning vector. A second round of amplification utilising generic labelled primers targeting the vector and unlabelled locus-specific primers targeting the microsatellite flanking region yield allelic profiles that are representative of all individuals contained within the pool. Suitability of various DNA pool sizes was then tested for this purpose. DNA template pools containing between 8 and 96 individuals were assessed for the determination of allele ranges of individual microsatellite markers across a broad population. This helped resolve the balance between using pools that are large enough to allow the detection of many alleles against the risk of including too many individuals in a pool such that rare alleles are over-diluted and so do not appear in the pooled microsatellite profile. Pools of DNA from 12 individuals allowed the reliable detection of all alleles present in the pool. Conclusion The use of generic vector-specific fluorescent primers and unlabelled locus-specific primers provides a high resolution, rapid and inexpensive approach for the selection of highly polymorphic microsatellite loci that possess non-overlapping allele ranges for use in large-scale multiplex assays.

Why are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in males?

Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are much more common in males, a bias that may offer clues to the etiology of this condition. Although the cause of this bias remains a mystery, we argue that it occurs because ASC is an extreme manifestation of the male brain. The extreme male brain (EMB) theory, first proposed in 1997, is an extension of the Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) theory of typical sex differences that proposes that females on average have a stronger drive to empathize while males on average have a stronger drive to systemize. In this first major update since 2005, we describe some of the evidence relating to the EMB theory of ASC and consider how typical sex differences in brain structure may be relevant to ASC. One possible biological mechanism to account for the male bias is the effect of fetal testosterone (fT). We also consider alternative biological theories, the X and Y chromosome theories, and the reduced autosomal penetrance theory. None of these theories has yet been fully confirmed or refuted, though the weight of evidence in favor of the fT theory is growing from converging sources (longitudinal amniocentesis studies from pregnancy to age 10 years old, current hormone studies, and genetic association studies of SNPs in the sex steroid pathways). Ultimately, as these theories are not mutually exclusive and ASC is multi-factorial, they may help explain the male prevalence of ASC.

Variation in the autism candidate gene GABRB3 modulates tactile sensitivity in typically developing children

Background: Autism spectrum conditions have a strong genetic component. Atypical sensory sensitivities are one of the core but neglected features of autism spectrum conditions. GABRB3 is a well-characterised candidate gene for autism spectrum conditions. In mice, heterozygous Gabrb3 deletion is associated with increased tactile sensitivity. However, no study has examined if tactile sensitivity is associated with GABRB3 genetic variation in humans. To test this, we conducted two pilot genetic association studies in the general population, analysing two phenotypic measures of tactile sensitivity (a parent-report and a behavioural measure) for association with 43 SNPs in GABRB3. Findings: Across both tactile sensitivity measures, three SNPs (rs11636966, rs8023959 and rs2162241) were nominally associated with both phenotypes, providing a measure of internal validation. Parent-report scores were nominally associated with six SNPs (P <0.05). Behaviourally measured tactile sensitivity was nominally associated with 10 SNPs (three after Bonferroni correction). Conclusions: This is the first human study to show an association between GABRB3 variation and tactile sensitivity. This provides support for the evidence from animal models implicating the role of GABRB3 variation in the atypical sensory sensitivity in autism spectrum conditions. Future research is underway to directly test this association in cases of autism spectrum conditions.

STX1A and Asperger syndrome: a replication study

Background Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) are a group of conditions characterized by difficulties in communication and social interaction, alongside unusually narrow interests and repetitive, stereotyped behaviour. Genetic association and expression studies have suggested an important role for the GABAergic circuits in ASC. Syntaxin 1A (STX1A) encodes a protein involved in regulation of serotonergic and GABAergic systems and its expression is altered in autism. Methods In this study, the association between three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs4717806, rs941298 and rs6951030) in STX1A gene and Asperger syndrome (AS) were tested in 650 controls and 479 individuals with AS, all of Caucasian ancestry. Results rs4717806 (P=0.00334) and rs941298 (P=0.01741) showed a significant association with AS, replicating previous results. Both SNPs putatively alter transcription factor binding sites both directly and through other variants in high linkage disequilibrium. Conclusions The current study confirms the role of STX1A as an important candidate gene in ASC. The exact molecular mechanisms through which STX1A contributes to the etiology remain to be elucidated.

Single nucleotide polymorphism rs6716901 in SLC25A12 gene is associated with Asperger syndrome

BACKGROUND: Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are a group of developmental conditions which affect communication, social interactions and behaviour. Mitochondrial oxidative dysfunction has been suggested as a mechanism of autism based on the results of multiple genetic association and expression studies. SLC25A12 is a gene encoding a calcium-binding carrier protein that localizes to the mitochondria and is involved in the exchange of aspartate for glutamate in the inner membrane of the mitochondria regulating the cytosolic redox state. rs2056202 SNP in this gene has previously been associated with ASC. SNPs rs6716901 and rs3765166 analysed in this study have not been previously explored in association with AS. METHODS: We genotyped three SNPs (rs2056202, rs3765166, and rs6716901) in SLC25A12 in n?=?117 individuals with Asperger syndrome (AS) and n?=?426 controls, all of Caucasian ancestry. RESULTS: rs6716901 showed significant association with AS (P?=?0.008) after correcting for multiple testing. We did not replicate the previously identified association between rs2056202 and AS in our sample. Similarly, rs3765166 (P?=?0.11) showed no significant association with AS. CONCLUSION: The present study, in combination with previous studies, provides evidence for SLC25A12 as involved in the etiology of AS. Further cellular and molecular studies are required to elucidate the role of this gene in ASC.

Dating the dead: a high-resolution radiocarbon chronology of burial Within an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire

This paper outlines the results of a programme of radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modelling relating to an Early Bronze Age barrow cemetery at Over, Cambridgeshire. In total, 43 dates were obtained, enabling the first high-resolution independent chronology (relating to both burial and architectural events) to be constructed for a site of this kind. The results suggest that the three main turf-mound barrows were probably constructed and used successively rather than simultaneously, that the shift from inhumation to cremation seen on the site was not a straightforward progression, and that the four main ‘types’ of cremation burial in evidence were used throughout the life of the site. Overall, variability in terms of burial practice appears to have been a key feature of the site. The paper also considers the light that the fine-grained chronology developed can shed on recent much wider discussions of memory and time within Early Bronze Age barrows

Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

A hierarchical Bayesian model for predicting the functional consequences of amino-acid polymorphisms

Genetic polymorphisms in deoxyribonucleic acid coding regions may have a phenotypic effect on the carrier, e.g. by influencing susceptibility to disease. Detection of deleterious mutations via association studies is hampered by the large number of candidate sites; therefore methods are needed to narrow down the search to the most promising sites. For this, a possible approach is to use structural and sequence-based information of the encoded protein to predict whether a mutation at a particular site is likely to disrupt the functionality of the protein itself. We propose a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate adaptive regression spline (BMARS) model for supervised learning in this context and assess its predictive performance by using data from mutagenesis experiments on lac repressor and lysozyme proteins. In these experiments, about 12 amino-acid substitutions were performed at each native amino-acid position and the effect on protein functionality was assessed. The training data thus consist of repeated observations at each position, which the hierarchical framework is needed to account for. The model is trained on the lac repressor data and tested on the lysozyme mutations and vice versa. In particular, we show that the hierarchical BMARS model, by allowing for the clustered nature of the data, yields lower out-of-sample misclassification rates compared with both a BMARS and a frequen-tist MARS model, a support vector machine classifier and an optimally pruned classification tree.

A likelihood ratio appropach to family-based association studies with covariates

We introduce a procedure for association based analysis of nuclear families that allows for dichotomous and more general measurements of phenotype and inclusion of covariate information. Standard generalized linear models are used to relate phenotype and its predictors. Our test procedure, based on the likelihood ratio, unifies the estimation of all parameters through the likelihood itself and yields maximum likelihood estimates of the genetic relative risk and interaction parameters. Our method has advantages in modelling the covariate and gene-covariate interaction terms over recently proposed conditional score tests that include covariate information via a two-stage modelling approach. We apply our method in a study of human systemic lupus erythematosus and the C-reactive protein that includes sex as a covariate.