Older adults encode-but do not always use-perceptual details: intentional versus unintentional effects of detail on memory judgments

Investigations of memory deficits in older individuals have concentrated on their increased likelihood of forgetting events or details of events that were actually encountered (errors of omission). However mounting evidence demonstrates that normal cognitive aging also is associated with an increased propensity for errors of commission-shown in false alarms or false recognition. The present study examined the origins of this age difference. Older and younger adults each performed three types of memory tasks in which details of encountered items might influence performance. Although older adults showed greater false recognition of related lures on a standard (identical) old/new episodic recognition task, older and younger adults showed parallel effects of detail on repetition priming and meaning-based episodic recognition (decreased priming and decreased meaning-based recognition for different relative to same exemplars). The results suggest that the older adults encoded details but used them less effectively than the younger adults in the recognition context requiring their deliberate, controlled use.

Robust abandoned object detection integrating wide area visual surveillance and social context

This paper presents a video surveillance framework that robustly and efficiently detects abandoned objects in surveillance scenes. The framework is based on a novel threat assessment algorithm which combines the concept of ownership with automatic understanding of social relations in order to infer abandonment of objects. Implementation is achieved through development of a logic-based inference engine based on Prolog. Threat detection performance is conducted by testing against a range of datasets describing realistic situations and demonstrates a reduction in the number of false alarms generated. The proposed system represents the approach employed in the EU SUBITO project (Surveillance of Unattended Baggage and the Identification and Tracking of the Owner).

Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

Challenges in communicating and using ensembles in operational flood forecasting.

Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, flood forecasters are beginning to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the effort to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Drawing on interviews and other research with operational flood forecasters from across Europe, this paper highlights a number of challenges to communicating and using ensemble flood forecasts operationally. It is shown that operational flood forecasters understand the skill, operational limitations, and informational value of EPS products in a variety of different and sometimes contradictory ways. Despite the efforts of forecasting agencies to design effective ways to communicate EPS forecasts to non-experts, operational flood forecasters were often skeptical about the ability of forecast recipients to understand or use them appropriately. It is argued that better training and closer contacts between operational flood forecasters and EPS system designers can help ensure the uncertainty represented by EPS forecasts is represented in ways that are most appropriate and meaningful for their intended consumers, but some fundamental political and institutional challenges to using ensembles, such as differing attitudes to false alarms and to responsibility for management of blame in the event of poor or mistaken forecasts are also highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society.

False recognition of abstract versus common objects in older and younger adults: testing the semantic categorization account

Older adults often demonstrate higher levels of false recognition than do younger adults. However, in experiments using novel shapes without preexisting semantic representations, this age-related elevation in false recognition was found to be greatly attenuated. Two experiments tested a semantic categorization account of these findings, examining whether older adults show especially heightened false recognition if the stimuli have preexisting semantic representations, such that semantic category information attenuates or truncates the encoding or retrieval of item-specific perceptual information. In Experiment 1, ambiguous shapes were presented with or without disambiguating semantic labels. Older adults showed higher false recognition when labels were present but not when labels were never presented. In Experiment 2, older adults showed higher false recognition for concrete but not abstract objects. The semantic categorization account was supported.

There must be more to development of mindreading and metacognition than passing false belief tasks

We argue that while it is a valuable contribution, Carruthers' Model may be too restrictive to elaborate our understanding of the development of mindreading and metacognition, or to enrich our knowledge of individual differences and psychopathology. To illustrate, we describe pertinent examples where there may be a critical interplay between primitive social-cognitive processes and emerging self-attributions.

Neural correlates of true and false memory in mild cognitive impairment

The goal of this research was to investigate the changes in neural processing in mild cognitive impairment. We measured phase synchrony, amplitudes, and event-related potentials in veridical and false memory to determine whether these differed in participants with mild cognitive impairment compared with typical, age-matched controls. Empirical mode decomposition phase locking analysis was used to assess synchrony, which is the first time this analysis technique has been applied in a complex cognitive task such as memory processing. The technique allowed assessment of changes in frontal and parietal cortex connectivity over time during a memory task, without a priori selection of frequency ranges, which has been shown previously to influence synchrony detection. Phase synchrony differed significantly in its timing and degree between participant groups in the theta and alpha frequency ranges. Timing differences suggested greater dependence on gist memory in the presence of mild cognitive impairment. The group with mild cognitive impairment had significantly more frontal theta phase locking than the controls in the absence of a significant behavioural difference in the task, providing new evidence for compensatory processing in the former group. Both groups showed greater frontal phase locking during false than true memory, suggesting increased searching when no actual memory trace was found. Significant inter-group differences in frontal alpha phase locking provided support for a role for lower and upper alpha oscillations in memory processing. Finally, fronto-parietal interaction was significantly reduced in the group with mild cognitive impairment, supporting the notion that mild cognitive impairment could represent an early stage in Alzheimer’s disease, which has been described as a ‘disconnection syndrome’.

Research practices that can prevent an inflation of false-positive rates

Recent studies have indicated that research practices in psychology may be susceptible to factors that increase false-positive rates, raising concerns about the possible prevalence of false-positive findings. The present article discusses several practices that may run counter to the inflation of false-positive rates. Taking these practices into account would lead to a more balanced view on the false-positive issue. Specifically, we argue that an inflation of false-positive rates would diminish, sometimes to a substantial degree, when researchers (a) have explicit a priori theoretical hypotheses, (b) include multiple replication studies in a single paper, and (c) collect additional data based on observed results. We report findings from simulation studies and statistical evidence that support these arguments. Being aware of these preventive factors allows researchers not to overestimate the pervasiveness of false-positives in psychology and to gauge the susceptibility of a paper to possible false-positives in practical and fair ways.