An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

Neural network based control in food processing

A number of commonly encountered simple neural network types are discussed, with particular attention being paid to their applicability in automation and control when applied to food processing. In the first instance n-tuple networks are considered, these being particularly useful for high speed production checking operations. Subsequently backpropagation networks are discussed, these being useful both in a more familiar feedback control arrangement and also for such things as recipe prediction.

An event-based approach to understanding decadal fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Many previous studies have shown that unforced climate model simulations exhibit decadal-scale fluctuations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), and that this variability can have impacts on surface climate fields. However, the robustness of these surface fingerprints across different models is less clear. Furthermore, with the potential for coupled feedbacks that may amplify or damp the response, it is not known whether the associated climate signals are linearly related to the strength of the AMOC changes, or if the fluctuation events exhibit nonlinear behaviour with respect to their strength or polarity. To explore these questions, we introduce an objective and flexible method for identifying the largest natural AMOC fluctuation events in multicentennial/multimillennial simulations of a variety of coupled climate models. The characteristics of the events are explored, including their magnitude, meridional coherence and spatial structure, as well as links with ocean heat transport and the horizontal circulation. The surface fingerprints in ocean temperature and salinity are examined, and compared with the results of linear regression analysis. It is found that the regressions generally provide a good indication of the surface changes associated with the largest AMOC events. However, there are some exceptions, including a nonlinear change in the atmospheric pressure signal, particularly at high latitudes, in HadCM3. Some asymmetries are also found between the changes associated with positive and negative AMOC events in the same model. Composite analysis suggests that there are signals that are robust across the largest AMOC events in each model, which provides reassurance that the surface changes associated with one particular event will be similar to those expected from regression analysis. However, large differences are found between the AMOC fingerprints in different models, which may hinder the prediction and attribution of such events in reality.

Remote control systems laboratory

Control systems theory can be a discipline difficult to learn without some laboratory help. With the help of focused laboratories this discipline turns to be very interesting to the students involved. The main problem is that laboratories aren't always available to students, and sometimes, when they are available, aren't big enough to a growing student population. Thus, with computer networks growing so fast, why don't create remote control labs that can be used by a large number of students? Why don't create remote control labs using Internetⓒ Copyright ?2001 IFAC Keywords: Remote Control, Computer Networks, Database, Educational Aids, Laboratory Education, Communication Control Applications.

Prefrontal control of familiarity and recollection in working memory

Left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) is a critical neural substrate for the resolution of proactive interference (PI) in working memory. We hypothesized that left IFG achieves this by controlling the influence of familiarity- versus recollection-based information about memory probes. Consistent with this idea, we observed evidence for an early (200 msec)-peaking signal corresponding to memory probe familiarity and a late (500 msec)-resolving signal corresponding to full accrual of trial-related contextual ("recollection-based") information. Next, we applied brief trains of repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) time locked to these mnemonic signals, to left IFG and to a control region. Only early rTMS of left IFG produced a modulation of the false alarm rate for high-PI probes. Additionally, the magnitude of this effect was predicted by individual differences in susceptibility to PI. These results suggest that left IFG-based control may bias the influence of familiarity- and recollection-based signals on recognition decisions.

Body-centric modelling, identification, and acceleration tracking control of a quadrotor UAV

This paper presents the mathematical development of a body-centric nonlinear dynamic model of a quadrotor UAV that is suitable for the development of biologically inspired navigation strategies. Analytical approximations are used to find an initial guess of the parameters of the nonlinear model, then parameter estimation methods are used to refine the model parameters using the data obtained from onboard sensors during flight. Due to the unstable nature of the quadrotor model, the identification process is performed with the system in closed-loop control of attitude angles. The obtained model parameters are validated using real unseen experimental data. Based on the identified model, a Linear-Quadratic (LQ) optimal tracker is designed to stabilize the quadrotor and facilitate its translational control by tracking body accelerations. The LQ tracker is tested on an experimental quadrotor UAV and the obtained results are a further means to validate the quality of the estimated model. The unique formulation of the control problem in the body frame makes the controller better suited for bio-inspired navigation and guidance strategies than conventional attitude or position based control systems that can be found in the existing literature.

Can wavelets improve the representation of forecast error covariances in variational data assimilation?

Two wavelet-based control variable transform schemes are described and are used to model some important features of forecast error statistics for use in variational data assimilation. The first is a conventional wavelet scheme and the other is an approximation of it. Their ability to capture the position and scale-dependent aspects of covariance structures is tested in a two-dimensional latitude-height context. This is done by comparing the covariance structures implied by the wavelet schemes with those found from the explicit forecast error covariance matrix, and with a non-wavelet- based covariance scheme used currently in an operational assimilation scheme. Qualitatively, the wavelet-based schemes show potential at modeling forecast error statistics well without giving preference to either position or scale-dependent aspects. The degree of spectral representation can be controlled by changing the number of spectral bands in the schemes, and the least number of bands that achieves adequate results is found for the model domain used. Evidence is found of a trade-off between the localization of features in positional and spectral spaces when the number of bands is changed. By examining implied covariance diagnostics, the wavelet-based schemes are found, on the whole, to give results that are closer to diagnostics found from the explicit matrix than from the nonwavelet scheme. Even though the nature of the covariances has the right qualities in spectral space, variances are found to be too low at some wavenumbers and vertical correlation length scales are found to be too long at most scales. The wavelet schemes are found to be good at resolving variations in position and scale-dependent horizontal length scales, although the length scales reproduced are usually too short. The second of the wavelet-based schemes is often found to be better than the first in some important respects, but, unlike the first, it has no exact inverse transform.

A multi-scale framework for strategic management of diffuse pollution

A multi-scale framework for decision support is presented that uses a combination of experiments, models, communication, education and decision support tools to arrive at a realistic strategy to minimise diffuse pollution. Effective partnerships between researchers and stakeholders play a key part in successful implementation of this strategy. The Decision Support Matrix (DSM) is introduced as a set of visualisations that can be used at all scales, both to inform decision making and as a communication tool in stakeholder workshops. A demonstration farm is presented and one of its fields is taken as a case study. Hydrological and nutrient flow path models are used for event based simulation (TOPCAT), catchment scale modelling (INCA) and field scale flow visualisation (TopManage). One of the DSMs; The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is discussed in detail. The PERM was developed iteratively as a point of discussion in stakeholder workshops, as a decision support and education tool. The resulting interactive PERM contains a set of questions and proposed remediation measures that reflect both expert and local knowledge. Education and visualisation tools such as GIS, risk indicators, TopManage and the PERM are found to be invaluable in communicating improved farming practice to stakeholders. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the use of Cottonseed cake in the diet of growing pigs

An experiment was conducted to determine the effects of including cottonseed cake in rations for weaned growing pigs. Thirty-two Landrace x Large White pigs, weighing 20-24 kg, were included in four blocks formed on the basis of initial weight within sex in an otherwise completely randomized block design. The pigs were killed when they reached a live weight of 75.0 +/- 2.0 kg and the half careases were analysed into cuts and the weights of the organs were recorded. An estimate of the productivity of the pigs on each diet was calculated. Cottonseed cake reduced the voluntary feed intake (p < 0.001) and live weight gains (p < 0.001) and increased the heart, kidney and liver weights (p < 0.01). The pigs on the soya bean-based control diet took the shortest time to reach slaughter weight. The result was probably in part due to lysine deficiency and in part to the effect of free gossypol. It was found that it is at present cost-effective to include cottonseed cake in pig weaner grower diets up to 300 g/kg in Cameroon.

Muscle hypertrophy driven by myostatin blockade does not require stem/precursor-cell activity

Myostatin, a member of the TGF-beta family, has been identified as a powerful inhibitor of muscle growth. Absence or blockade of myostatin induces massive skeletal muscle hypertrophy that is widely attributed to proliferation of the population of muscle fiber-associated satellite cells that have been identified as the principle source of new muscle tissue during growth and regeneration. Postnatal blockade of myostatin has been proposed as a basis for therapeutic strategies to combat muscle loss in genetic and acquired myopathies. But this approach, according to the accepted mechanism, would raise the threat of premature exhaustion of the pool of satellite cells and eventual failure of muscle regeneration. Here, we show that hypertrophy in the absence of myostatin involves little or no input from satellite cells. Hypertrophic fibers contain no more myonuclei or satellite cells and myostatin had no significant effect on satellite cell proliferation in vitro, while expression of myostatin receptors dropped to the limits of detectability in postnatal satellite cells. Moreover, hypertrophy of dystrophic muscle arising from myostatin blockade was achieved without any apparent enhancement of contribution of myonuclei from satellite cells. These findings contradict the accepted model of myostatin-based control of size of postnatal muscle and reorient fundamental investigations away from the mechanisms that control satellite cell proliferation and toward those that increase myonuclear domain, by modulating synthesis and turnover of structural muscle fiber proteins. It predicts too that any benefits of myostatin blockade in chronic myopathies are unlikely to impose any extra stress on the satellite cells.

The relative order and inverses of recurrent networks

Differential geometry is used to investigate the structure of neural-network-based control systems. The key aspect is relative order—an invariant property of dynamic systems. Finite relative order allows the specification of a minimal architecture for a recurrent network. Any system with finite relative order has a left inverse. It is shown that a recurrent network with finite relative order has a local inverse that is also a recurrent network with the same weights. The results have implications for the use of recurrent networks in the inverse-model-based control of nonlinear systems.

Hillslope scale surface runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses associated with tramline wheelings

Research on arable sandy loam and silty clay loam soils on 4° slopes in England has shown that tramlines (i.e. the unseeded wheeling areas used to facilitate spraying operations in cereal crops) can represent the most important pathway for phosphorus and sediment loss from moderately sloping fields. Detailed monitoring over the October–March period in winters 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 included event-based sampling of surface runoff, suspended and particulate sediment, and dissolved and particulate phosphorus from hillslope segments (each ∼300–800 m2) established in a randomized block design with four replicates of each treatment at each of two sites on lighter and heavier soils. Experimental treatments assessed losses from the cropped area without tramlines, and from the uncropped tramline area, and were compared to losses from tramlines which had been disrupted once in the autumn with a shallow tine. On the lighter soil, the effects of removal or shallow incorporation of straw residues was also determined. Research on both sandy and silty clay loam soils across two winters showed that tramline wheelings represented the dominant pathway for surface runoff and transport of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen from cereal crops on moderate slopes. Results indicated 5·5–15·8% of rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·8–2·9 kg TP ha−1 and 0·3–4·8 t ha−1 sediment in tramline treatments, compared to only 0·2–1·7% rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·0–0·2 kg TP ha−1 and 0·003–0·3 t ha−1 sediment from treatments without tramlines or those where tramlines had been disrupted. The novel shallow disruption of tramline wheelings using a tine once following the autumn spray operation consistently and dramatically reduced (p < 0·001) surface runoff and loads of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus to levels similar to those measured in cropped areas between tramlines. Results suggest that options for managing tramline wheelings warrant further refinement and evaluation with a view to incorporating them into spatially-targeted farm-level management planning using national or catchment-based agri-environment policy instruments aimed at reducing diffuse pollution from land to surface water systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The effects of age, enactment, and cue-action relatedness on memory for intentions in the Virtual Week task

The current study investigated the influence of encoding modality and cue-action relatedness on prospective memory (PM) performance in young and older adults using a modified version of the Virtual Week task. Participants encoded regular and irregular intentions either verbally or by physically performing the action during encoding. For half of the intentions there was a close semantic relation between the retrieval cue and the intended action, while for the remaining intentions the cue and action were semantically unrelated. For irregular tasks, both age groups showed superior PM for related intentions compared to unrelated intentions in both encoding conditions. While older adults retrieved fewer irregular intentions than young adults after verbal encoding, there was no age difference following enactment. Possible mechanisms of enactment and relatedness effects are discussed in the context of current theories of event-based PM.

Causal evidence for frontal involvement in memory target maintenance by posterior brain areas during distracter interference of visual working memory

Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) is recruited during visual working memory (WM) when relevant information must be maintained in the presence of distracting information. The mechanism by which DLPFC might ensure successful maintenance of the contents of WM is, however, unclear; it might enhance neural maintenance of memory targets or suppress processing of distracters. To adjudicate between these possibilities, we applied time-locked transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) during functional MRI, an approach that permits causal assessment of a stimulated brain region's influence on connected brain regions, and evaluated how this influence may change under different task conditions. Participants performed a visual WM task requiring retention of visual stimuli (faces or houses) across a delay during which visual distracters could be present or absent. When distracters were present, they were always from the opposite stimulus category, so that targets and distracters were represented in distinct posterior cortical areas. We then measured whether DLPFC-TMS, administered in the delay at the time point when distracters could appear, would modulate posterior regions representing memory targets or distracters. We found that DLPFC-TMS influenced posterior areas only when distracters were present and, critically, that this influence consisted of increased activity in regions representing the current memory targets. DLPFC-TMS did not affect regions representing current distracters. These results provide a new line of causal evidence for a top-down DLPFC-based control mechanism that promotes successful maintenance of relevant information in WM in the presence of distraction.

An extreme case of plant-insect co-diversification: figs and fig-pollinating wasps

It is thought that speciation in phytophagous insects is often due to colonization of novel host plants, because radiations of plant and insect lineages are typically asynchronous. Recent phylogenetic comparisons have supported this model of diversification for both insect herbivores and specialized pollinators. An exceptional case where contemporaneous plant insect diversification might be expected is the obligate mutualism between fig trees (Ficus species, Moraceae) and their pollinating wasps (Agaonidae, Hymenoptera). The ubiquity and ecological significance of this mutualism in tropical and subtropical ecosystems has long intrigued biologists, but the systematic challenge posed by >750 interacting species pairs has hindered progress toward understanding its evolutionary history. In particular, taxon sampling and analytical tools have been insufficient for large-scale co-phylogenetic analyses. Here, we sampled nearly 200 interacting pairs of fig and wasp species from across the globe. Two supermatrices were assembled: on average, wasps had sequences from 77% of six genes (5.6kb), figs had sequences from 60% of five genes (5.5 kb), and overall 850 new DNA sequences were generated for this study. We also developed a new analytical tool, Jane 2, for event-based phylogenetic reconciliation analysis of very large data sets. Separate Bayesian phylogenetic analyses for figs and fig wasps under relaxed molecular clock assumptions indicate Cretaceous diversification of crown groups and contemporaneous divergence for nearly half of all fig and pollinator lineages. Event-based co-phylogenetic analyses further support the co-diversification hypothesis. Biogeographic analyses indicate that the presentday distribution of fig and pollinator lineages is consistent with an Eurasian origin and subsequent dispersal, rather than with Gondwanan vicariance. Overall, our findings indicate that the fig-pollinator mutualism represents an extreme case among plant-insect interactions of coordinated dispersal and long-term co-diversification.