Using historical lesion volume data in the design of a new phase II clinical trial in acute stroke

Background and Purpose-Clinical research into the treatment of acute stroke is complicated, is costly, and has often been unsuccessful. Developments in imaging technology based on computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans offer opportunities for screening experimental therapies during phase II testing so as to deliver only the most promising interventions to phase III. We discuss the design and the appropriate sample size for phase II studies in stroke based on lesion volume. Methods-Determination of the relation between analyses of lesion volumes and of neurologic outcomes is illustrated using data from placebo trial patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. The size of an effect on lesion volume that would lead to a clinically relevant treatment effect in terms of a measure, such as modified Rankin score (mRS), is found. The sample size to detect that magnitude of effect on lesion volume is then calculated. Simulation is used to evaluate different criteria for proceeding from phase II to phase III. Results-The odds ratios for mRS correspond roughly to the square root of odds ratios for lesion volume, implying that for equivalent power specifications, sample sizes based on lesion volumes should be about one fourth of those based on mRS. Relaxation of power requirements, appropriate for phase II, lead to further sample size reductions. For example, a phase III trial comparing a novel treatment with placebo with a total sample size of 1518 patients might be motivated from a phase II trial of 126 patients comparing the same 2 treatment arms. Discussion-Definitive phase III trials in stroke should aim to demonstrate significant effects of treatment on clinical outcomes. However, more direct outcomes such as lesion volume can be useful in phase II for determining whether such phase III trials should be undertaken in the first place. (Stroke. 2009;40:1347-1352.)

A randomised clinical trial to assess the effect of total enteral and total parenteral nutritional support on metabolic, inflammatory and oxidative markers in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II >= 66)

Background: Total enteral nutrition (TEN) within 48 h of admission has recently been shown to be safe and efficacious as part of the management of severe acute pancreatitis. Our aim was to ascertain the safety of immediate TEN in these patients and the effect of TEN on systemic inflammation, psychological state, oxidative stress, plasma glutamine levels and endotoxaemia. Methods: Patients admitted with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II score 15) were randomised to total enteral (TEN; n = 8) or total parenteral nutrition (TPN; n = 9). Measurements of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein), fatigue ( visual analogue scale), oxidative stress ( plasma thiobarbituric acid- reactive substances), plasma glutamine and anti-endotoxin IgG and IgM antibody concentrations were made on admission and repeated on days 3 and 7 thereafter. Clinical progress was monitored using APACHE II score. Organ failure and complications were recorded. Results: All patients tolerated the feeding regime well with few nutrition-related complications. Fatigue improved in both groups but more rapidly in the TEN group. Oxidative stress was high on admission and rose by similar amounts in both groups. Plasma glutamine concentrations did not change significantly in either group. In the TPN group, 3 patients developed respiratory failure and 3 developed non-respiratory single organ failure. There were no such complications in the TEN group. Hospital stay was shorter in the TEN group [ 7 (4-14) vs. 10 (7-26) days; p = 0.05] as was time to passing flatus and time to opening bowels [1 (0-2) vs. 2 (1-5) days; p = 0.01]. The cost of TEN was considerably less than of TPN. Conclusion: Immediate institution of nutritional support in the form of TEN is safe in predicted severe acute pancreatitis. It is as safe and as efficacious as TPN and may be beneficial in the clinical course of this disease. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP.