Cultivating C4 crops in a changing climate: sugarcane in Ghana

Over the next few decades, it is expected that increasing fossil fuel prices will lead to a proliferation of energy crop cultivation initiatives. The environmental sustainability of these activities is thus a pressing issue—particularly when they take place in vulnerable regions, such as West Africa. In more general terms, the effect of increased CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures on biomass production and evapotranspiration affects the evolution of the global hydrological and carbon cycles. Investigating these processes for a C4 crop, such as sugarcane, thus provides an opportunity both to extend our understanding of the impact of climate change, and to assess our capacity to model the underpinning processes. This paper applies a process-based crop model to sugarcane in Ghana (where cultivation is planned), and the São Paulo region of Brazil (which has a well-established sugarcane industry). We show that, in the Daka River region of Ghana, provided there is sufficient irrigation, it is possible to generate approximately 75% of the yield achieved in the São Paulo region. In the final part of the study, the production of sugarcane under an idealized temperature increase climate change scenario is explored. It is shown that doubling CO2 mitigates the degree of water stress associated with a 4 °C increase in temperature.

Electrical signature in polar night cloud base variations

Layer clouds are globally extensive. Their lower edges are charged negatively by the fair weather atmospheric electricity current flowing vertically through them. Using polar winter surface meteorological data from Sodankyla ̈ (Finland) and Halley (Antarctica), we find that when meteorological diurnal variations are weak, an appreciable diurnal cycle, on average, persists in the cloud base heights, detected using a laser ceilometer. The diurnal cloud base heights from both sites correlate more closely with the Carnegie curve of global atmospheric electricity than with local meteorological measurements. The cloud base sensitivities are indistinguishable between the northern and southern hemispheres, averaging a (4.0 ± 0.5) m rise for a 1% change in the fair weather electric current density. This suggests that the global fair weather current, which is affected by space weather, cosmic rays and the El Nin ̃o Southern Oscillation, is linked with layer cloud properties.

System identification algorithms for the analysis of dielectric responses from broadband spectroscopies

We discuss the modeling of dielectric responses for an electromagnetically excited network of capacitors and resistors using a systems identification framework. Standard models that assume integral order dynamics are augmented to incorporate fractional order dynamics. This enables us to relate more faithfully the modeled responses to those reported in the Dielectrics literature.

Extending Murty interferometry to the Terahertz part of the spectrum

We discuss some novel technologies that enable the implementation of shearing interferometry at the terahertz part of the spectrum. Possible applications include the direct measurement of lens parameters, the measurement of refractive index of materials that are transparent to terahertz frequencies, determination of homogeneity of samples, measurement of optical distortions and the non-contact evaluation of thermal expansion coefficient of materials buried inside media that are opaque to optical or infrared frequencies but transparent to THz frequencies. The introduction of a shear to a Gaussian free-space propagating terahertz beam in a controlled manner also makes possible a range of new encoding and optical signal processing modalities.

The global atmospheric water cycle

Water vapour plays a key role in the Earth's energy balance. Almost 50% of the absorbed solar radiation at the surface is used to cool the surface, through evaporation, and warm the atmosphere, through release of latent heat. Latent heat is the single largest factor in warming the atmosphere and in transporting heat from low to high latitudes. Water vapour is also the dominant greenhouse gas and contributes to a warming of the climate system by some 24°C (Kondratev 1972). However, water vapour is a passive component in the troposphere as it is uniquely determined by temperature and should therefore be seen as a part of the climate feedback system. In this short overview, we will first describe the water on planet Earth and the role of the hydrological cycle: the way water vapour is transported between oceans and continents and the return of water via rivers to the oceans. Generally water vapour is well observed and analysed; however, there are considerable obstacles to observing precipitation, in particular over the oceans. The response of the hydrological cycle to global warming is far reaching. Because different physical processes control the change in water vapour and evaporation/precipitation, this leads to a more extreme distribution of precipitation making, in general, wet areas wetter and dry areas dryer. Another consequence is a transition towards more intense precipitation. It is to be expected that the changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate warming may be more severe that the temperature changes.

Cosmic ray modulation of infra-red radiation in the atmosphere

Cosmic rays produce molecular cluster ions as they pass through the lower atmosphere. Neutral molecular clusters such as dimers and complexes are expected to make a small contribution to the radiative balance, but atmospheric absorption by charged clusters has not hitherto been observed. In an atmospheric experiment, a narrowband thermopile filter radiometer centred on 9.15 {\mu}m, an absorption band previously associated with infra-red absorption of molecular cluster ions, was used to monitor changes following events identified by a cosmic ray telescope sensitive to high-energy (>400 MeV) particles, principally muons. The average change in longwave radiation in this absorption band due to molecular cluster ions is 7 mWm sup{-2}. The integrated atmospheric energy density for each event is 2 Jm sup{-2}, representing an amplification factor of 10 sup{12} compared to the estimated energy density of a typical air shower. This absorption is expected to occur continuously and globally, but calculations suggest that it has only a small effect on climate.

Reliability of regional climate model trends

A necessary condition for a good probabilistic forecast is that the forecast system is shown to be reliable: forecast probabilities should equal observed probabilities verified over a large number of cases. As climate change trends are now emerging from the natural variability, we can apply this concept to climate predictions and compute the reliability of simulated local and regional temperature and precipitation trends (1950–2011) in a recent multi-model ensemble of climate model simulations prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment report (AR5). With only a single verification time, the verification is over the spatial dimension. The local temperature trends appear to be reliable. However, when the global mean climate response is factored out, the ensemble is overconfident: the observed trend is outside the range of modelled trends in many more regions than would be expected by the model estimate of natural variability and model spread. Precipitation trends are overconfident for all trend definitions. This implies that for near-term local climate forecasts the CMIP5 ensemble cannot simply be used as a reliable probabilistic forecast.

Evidence for a climate signal in trends of global crop yield variability over the past 50 years

Low variability of crop production from year to year is desirable for many reasons, including reduced income risk and stability of supplies. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of yield variability, whether it is changing through time, and how it varies between crops and regions. Previous studies have shown that national crop yield variability has changed in the past, with the direction and magnitude dependent on crop type and location. Whilst such studies acknowledge the importance of climate variability in determining yield variability, it has been assumed that its magnitude and its effect on crop production have not changed through time and, hence, that changes to yield variability have been due to non-climatic factors. We address this assumption by jointly examining yield and climate variability for three major crops (rice, wheat and maize) over the past 50 years. National yield time series and growing season temperature and precipitation were de-trended and related using multiple linear regression. Yield variability changed significantly in half of the crop–country combinations examined. For several crop–country combinations, changes in yield variability were related to changes in climate variability.

The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi decadal timescales.

Uniqueness results for direct and inverse scattering by infinite surfaces in a lossy medium

We consider the Dirichlet boundary-value problem for the Helmholtz equation, Au + x2u = 0, with Imx > 0. in an hrbitrary bounded or unbounded open set C c W. Assuming continuity of the solution up to the boundary and a bound on growth a infinity, that lu(x)l < Cexp (Slxl), for some C > 0 and S~< Imx, we prove that the homogeneous problem has only the trivial salution. With this resnlt we prove uniqueness results for direct and inverse problems of scattering by a bounded or infinite obstacle.

DK-1D: a drift-kinetic simulation tool for modelling the shear Alfvén wave and its interaction with collisionless plasma

We present a highly accurate tool for the simulation of shear Alfven waves (SAW) in collisionless plasma. SAW are important in space plasma environments because for small perpendicular scale lengths they can support an electric field parallel to the ambient magnetic field. Electrons can be accelerated by the parallel electric field and these waves have been implicated as the source of vibrant auroral displays. However, the parallel electric field carried by SAW is small in comparison to the perpendicular electric field of the wave, making it difficult to measure directly in the laboratory, or by satellites in the near-Earth plasma environment. In this paper, we present a simulation code that provides a means to study in detail the SAW-particle interaction in both space and laboratory plasma. Using idealised, small-amplitude propagating waves with a single perpendicular wavenumber, the simulation code accurately reproduces the damping rates and parallel electric field amplitudes predicted by linear theory for varying temperatures and perpendicular scale lengths. We present a rigorous kinetic derivation of the parallel electric field strength for small-amplitude SAW and show that commonly-used inertial and kinetic approximations are valid except for where the ratio of thermal to Alfv\'{e}n speed is between 0.7 and 1.0. We also present nonlinear simulations of large-amplitude waves and show that in cases of strong damping, the damping rates and parallel electric field strength deviate from linear predictions when wave energies are greater than only a few percent of the plasma kinetic energy, a situation which is often observed in the magnetosphere. The drift-kinetic code provides reliable, testable predictions of the parallel electric field strength which can be investigated directly in the laboratory, and will help to bridge the gap between studies of SAW in man-made and naturally occuring plasma.

Why all counter-evidence to the critical period hypothesis in second language acquisition is not equal or problematic

That adult and child language acquisitions differ in route and outcome is observable. Notwithstanding, there is controversy as to what this observation means for the Critical Period Hypothesis’ (CPH) application to adult second language acquisition (SLA). As most versions of the CPH applied to SLA claim that differences result from maturational effects on in-born linguistic mechanisms, the CPH has many implications that are amendable to empirical investigation. To date, there is no shortage of literature claiming that the CPH applies or does not apply to normal adult SLA. Herein, I provide an epistemological discussion on the conceptual usefulness of the CPH in SLA (cf. Singleton 2005) coupled with a review of Long's (2005) evaluation of much available relevant research. Crucially, I review studies that Long did not consider and conclude differently that there is no critical/sensitive period for L2 syntactic and semantic acquisition.

First order k-th moment finite element analysis of nonlinear operator equations with stochastic data

We develop and analyze a class of efficient Galerkin approximation methods for uncertainty quantification of nonlinear operator equations. The algorithms are based on sparse Galerkin discretizations of tensorized linearizations at nominal parameters. Specifically, we consider abstract, nonlinear, parametric operator equations J(\alpha ,u)=0 for random input \alpha (\omega ) with almost sure realizations in a neighborhood of a nominal input parameter \alpha _0. Under some structural assumptions on the parameter dependence, we prove existence and uniqueness of a random solution, u(\omega ) = S(\alpha (\omega )). We derive a multilinear, tensorized operator equation for the deterministic computation of k-th order statistical moments of the random solution's fluctuations u(\omega ) - S(\alpha _0). We introduce and analyse sparse tensor Galerkin discretization schemes for the efficient, deterministic computation of the k-th statistical moment equation. We prove a shift theorem for the k-point correlation equation in anisotropic smoothness scales and deduce that sparse tensor Galerkin discretizations of this equation converge in accuracy vs. complexity which equals, up to logarithmic terms, that of the Galerkin discretization of a single instance of the mean field problem. We illustrate the abstract theory for nonstationary diffusion problems in random domains.

Optimal convergence estimates for the trace of the polynomial L2-projection operator on a simplex

In this paper we study convergence of the L2-projection onto the space of polynomials up to degree p on a simplex in Rd, d >= 2. Optimal error estimates are established in the case of Sobolev regularity and illustrated on several numerical examples. The proof is based on the collapsed coordinate transform and the expansion into various polynomial bases involving Jacobi polynomials and their antiderivatives. The results of the present paper generalize corresponding estimates for cubes in Rd from [P. Houston, C. Schwab, E. Süli, Discontinuous hp-finite element methods for advection-diffusion-reaction problems. SIAM J. Numer. Anal. 39 (2002), no. 6, 2133-2163].