Development of warm SST errors in the southern tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 decadal hindcasts

SST errors in the tropical Atlantic are large and systematic in current coupled general-circulation models. We analyse the growth of these errors in the region of the south-eastern tropical Atlantic in initialised decadal hindcasts integrations for three of the models participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5. A variety of causes for the initial bias development are identified, but a crucial involvement is found, in all cases considered, of ocean-atmosphere coupling for their maintenance. These involve an oceanic “bridge” between the Equator and the Benguela-Angola coastal seas which communicates sub-surface ocean anomalies and constitutes a coupling between SSTs in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic and the winds over the Equator. The resulting coupling between SSTs, winds and precipitation represents a positive feedback for warm SST errors in the south-eastern tropical Atlantic.

Large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: an analysis using the extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model is used to investigate the large-scale dynamics of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). It is shown that the 4-day wave is substantially amplified in southern polar winter in the presence of instabilities arising from strong vertical shears in the MLT zonal mean zonal winds brought about by parameterized nonorographic gravity wave drag. A weaker 4-day wave in northern polar winter is attributed to the weaker wind shears that result from weaker parameterized wave drag. The 2-day wave also exhibits a strong dependence on zonal wind shears, in agreement with previous modeling studies. In the equatorial upper mesosphere, the migrating diurnal tide provides most of the resolved westward wave forcing, which varies semiannually in conjunction with the tide itself; resolved forcing by eastward traveling disturbances is dominated by smaller scales. Nonmigrating tides and other planetary-scale waves play only a minor role in the zonal mean zonal momentum budget in the tropics at these heights. Resolved waves are shown to play a significant role in the zonal mean meridional momentum budget in the MLT, impacting significantly on gradient wind balance. Balance fails at low latitudes as a result of a strong Reynolds stress associated with the migrating diurnal tide, an effect which is most pronounced at equinox when the tide is strongest. Resolved and parameterized waves account for most of the imbalance at higher latitudes in summer. This results in the gradient wind underestimating the actual eastward wind reversal by up to 40%.

Impact of climate change on stratospheric sudden warmings as simulated by the Canadian middle atmosphere model

The dynamics of Northern Hemisphere major midwinter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are examined using transient climate change simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM). The simulated SSWs show good overall agreement with reanalysis data in terms of composite structure, statistics, and frequency. Using observed or model sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is found to make no significant difference to the SSWs, indicating that the use of model SSTs in the simulations extending into the future is not an issue. When SSWs are defined by the standard (wind based) definition, an absolute criterion, their frequency is found to increase by;60% by the end of this century, in conjunction with a;25% decrease in their temperature amplitude. However, when a relative criterion based on the northern annular mode index is used to define the SSWs, no future increase in frequency is found. The latter is consistent with the fact that the variance of 100-hPa daily heat flux anomalies is unaffected by climate change. The future increase in frequency of SSWs using the standard method is a result of the weakened climatological mean winds resulting from climate change, which make it easier for the SSW criterion to be met. A comparison of winters with and without SSWs reveals that the weakening of the climatological westerlies is not a result of SSWs. The Brewer–Dobson circulation is found to be stronger by ;10% during winters with SSWs, which is a value that does not change significantly in the future.

Some challenges of middle atmosphere data assimilation

The assimilation of measurements from the stratosphere and mesosphere is becoming increasingly common as the lids of weather prediction and climate models rise into the mesosphere and thermosphere. However, the dynamics of the middle atmosphere pose specific challenges to the assimilation of measurements from this region. Forecast-error variances can be very large in the mesosphere and this can render assimilation schemes very sensitive to the details of the specification of forecast error correlations. An example is shown where observations in the stratosphere are able to produce increments in the mesosphere. Such sensitivity of the assimilation scheme to misspecification of covariances can also amplify any existing biases in measurements or forecasts. Since both models and measurements of the middle atmosphere are known to have biases, the separation of these sources of bias remains a issue. Finally, well-known deficiencies of assimilation schemes, such as the production of imbalanced states or the assumption of zero bias, are proposed explanations for the inaccurate transport resulting from assimilated winds. The inability of assimilated winds to accurately transport constituents in the middle atmosphere remains a fundamental issue limiting the use of assimilated products for applications involving longer time-scales.

A Lagrangian model of air-mass photochemistry and mixing using a trajectory ensemble: the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport (CiTTyCAT) version 4.2

A Lagrangian model of photochemistry and mixing is described (CiTTyCAT, stemming from the Cambridge Tropospheric Trajectory model of Chemistry And Transport), which is suitable for transport and chemistry studies throughout the troposphere. Over the last five years, the model has been developed in parallel at several different institutions and here those developments have been incorporated into one "community" model and documented for the first time. The key photochemical developments include a new scheme for biogenic volatile organic compounds and updated emissions schemes. The key physical development is to evolve composition following an ensemble of trajectories within neighbouring air-masses, including a simple scheme for mixing between them via an evolving "background profile", both within the boundary layer and free troposphere. The model runs along trajectories pre-calculated using winds and temperature from meteorological analyses. In addition, boundary layer height and precipitation rates, output from the analysis model, are interpolated to trajectory points and used as inputs to the mixing and wet deposition schemes. The model is most suitable in regimes when the effects of small-scale turbulent mixing are slow relative to advection by the resolved winds so that coherent air-masses form with distinct composition and strong gradients between them. Such air-masses can persist for many days while stretching, folding and thinning. Lagrangian models offer a useful framework for picking apart the processes of air-mass evolution over inter-continental distances, without being hindered by the numerical diffusion inherent to global Eulerian models. The model, including different box and trajectory modes, is described and some output for each of the modes is presented for evaluation. The model is available for download from a Subversion-controlled repository by contacting the corresponding authors.

Examination of wind storms over Central Europe with respect to circulation weather types and NAO phases

The occurrence of wind storms in Central Europe is investigated with respect to large-scale atmospheric flow and local wind speeds in the investigation area. Two different methods of storm identification are applied for Central Europe as the target region: one based on characteristics of large-scale flow (circulation weather types, CWT) and the other on the occurrence of extreme wind speeds. The identified events are examined with respect to the NAO phases and CWTs under which they occur. Pressure patterns, wind speeds and cyclone tracks are investigated for storms assigned to different CWTs. Investigations are based on ERA40 reanalysis data. It is shown that about 80% of the storm days in Central Europe are connected with westerly flow and that Central European storm events primarily occur during a moderately positive NAO phase, while strongly positive NAO phases (6.4% of all days) account for more than 20% of the storms. A storm occurs over Central Europe during about 10% of the days with a strong positive NAO index. The most frequent pathway of cyclone systems associated with storms over Central Europe leads from the North Atlantic over the British Isles, North Sea and southern Scandinavia into the Baltic Sea. The mean intensity of the systems typically reaches its maximum near the British Isles. Differences between the characteristics for storms identified from the CWT identification procedure (gale days, based on MSLP fields) and those from extreme winds at Central European grid points are small, even though only 70% of the storm days agree. While most storms occur during westerly flow situations, specific characteristics of storms during the other CWTs are also considered. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Analysis of frequency and intensity of European winter storm events from a multi-model perspective, at synoptic and regional scales

This study focuses on the analysis of winter (October-November-December-January-February-March; ONDJFM) storm events and their changes due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations over Europe. In order to assess uncertainties that are due to model formulation, 4 regional climate models (RCMs) with 5 high resolution experiments, and 4 global general circulation models (GCMs) are considered. Firstly, cyclone systems as synoptic scale processes in winter are investigated, as they are a principal cause of the occurrence of extreme, damage-causing wind speeds. This is achieved by use of an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm applied to GCMs. Secondly, changes in extreme near-surface wind speeds are analysed. Based on percentile thresholds, the studied extreme wind speed indices allow a consistent analysis over Europe that takes systematic deviations of the models into account. Relative changes in both intensity and frequency of extreme winds and their related uncertainties are assessed and related to changing patterns of extreme cyclones. A common feature of all investigated GCMs is a reduced track density over central Europe under climate change conditions, if all systems are considered. If only extreme (i.e. the strongest 5%) cyclones are taken into account, an increasing cyclone activity for western parts of central Europe is apparent; however, the climate change signal reveals a reduced spatial coherency when compared to all systems, which exposes partially contrary results. With respect to extreme wind speeds, significant positive changes in intensity and frequency are obtained over at least 3 and 20% of the European domain under study (35–72°N and 15°W–43°E), respectively. Location and extension of the affected areas (up to 60 and 50% of the domain for intensity and frequency, respectively), as well as levels of changes (up to +15 and +200% for intensity and frequency, respectively) are shown to be highly dependent on the driving GCM, whereas differences between RCMs when driven by the same GCM are relatively small.

Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity

The relationship between winter (DJF) rainfall over Portugal and the variable large scale circulation is addressed. It is shown that the poles of the sea level pressure (SLP) field variability associated with rainfall variability are shifted about 15° northward with respect to those used in standard definitions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is suggested that the influence of NAO on rainfall dominantly arises from the associated advection of humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall is also related to different aspects of baroclinic wave activity, the variability of the latter quantity in turn being largely dependent on the NAO. A negative NAO index (leading to increased westerly surface geostrophic winds into Portugal) is associated with an increased number of deep (ps<980 hPa) surface lows over the central North Atlantic and of intermediate (980of baroclinic wave activity varying with the NAO is the mid-tropospheric storm track (defined by the 500 hPa bandpass-filtered geopotential height variance). A possible local influence of the storm track due to vertical motions ahead of the upper air troughs cannot be unambiguously separated from the effect of advection. A separate influence of local surface cyclones over the Iberian peninsula which may, for instance, arise from the large scale ascent of air, is revealed by the statistics: for a given advection, rainfall amounts for months with local cyclone cores over the considered region tend to exceed those without. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society

On the nature of large-scale mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Studies of tracer transport in the stratosphere have shown that adiabatic quasi-horizontal tracer evolution is controlled primarily by the large-scale low-frequency component of the flow. This behavior is consistent with the concept of chaotic advection, wherein the Eulerian velocity field is spatially coherent and temporally quasi-regular on timescales over which the Lagrangian evolution is chaotic. In this study, winds from a middle atmosphere general circulation model (the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) are used to compare and contrast the nature of tracer evolution in the stratosphere and mesosphere. It is found that the concept of chaotic advection is relevant in the stratosphere but not in the mesosphere. The explanation for this behavior is the increased strength of gravity wave activity in the mesosphere as compared with the stratosphere, which leads to shallower kinetic energy spectra on synoptic scales and a much shorter Eulerian correlation time. The shallower kinetic energy spectra imply that tracer evolution in the mesosphere is spectrally local, in contrast with the spectrally nonlocal regime that prevails in the stratosphere. This means that tracer advection calculations in the mesosphere are controlled primarily by the gravity wave spectrum and are intrinsically resolution dependent.

Radiative-dynamical climatology of the first-generation Canadian middle atmosphere model

The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Modelling (MAM) project is a collaboration between thé Atmospheric Environment Service (AES) of Environment Canada and several Canadian universities. Its goal is thé development of a comprehensive General Circulation Model of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere System, starting from the AES/CCCma third-generation atmospheric General Circulation Model. This paper describes the basic features of the first-generation Canadian MAM and some aspects of its radiative-dynamical climatology. Standard first-order mean diagnostics are presented for monthly means and for the annual cycle of zonal-mean winds and temperatures. The mean meridional circulation is examined, and comparison is made between thé steady diabatic, downward controlled, and residual stream functions. It is found that downward control holds quite well in the monthly mean through most of the middle atmosphere, even during equinoctal periods. The relative roles of different drag processes in determining the mean downwelling over the wintertime polar middle stratosphere is examined, and the vertical structure of the drag is quantified.

Dynamical control of the mesosphere by orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) that is nudged toward reanalysis data up to 1 hPa is used to examine the impacts of parameterized orographic and non-orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD and NGWD) on the zonal-mean circulation of the mesosphere during the extended northern winters of 2006 and 2009 when there were two large stratospheric sudden warmings. The simulations are compared to Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) observations of mesospheric temperature, carbon monoxide (CO) and derived zonal winds. The control simulation, which uses both OGWD and NGWD, is shown to be in good agreement with MLS. The impacts of OGWD and NGWD are assessed using simulations in which those sources of wave drag are removed. In the absence of OGWD the mesospheric zonal winds in the months preceding the warmings are too strong, causing increased mesospheric NGWD, which drives excessive downwelling, resulting in overly large lower mesospheric values of CO prior to the warming. NGWD is found to be most important following the warmings when the underlying westerlies are too weak to allow much vertical propagation of the orographic gravity waves to the mesosphere. NGWD is primarily responsible for driving the circulation that results in the descent of CO from the thermosphere following the warmings. Zonal mean mesospheric winds and temperatures in all simulations are shown to be strongly constrained by (i.e. slaved to) the stratosphere. Finally, it is demonstrated that the responses to OGWD and NGWD are non-additive due to their dependence and influence on the background winds and temperatures.

The dependence of southern ocean meridional overturning on wind stress

An eddy-resolving numerical model of a zonal flow, meant to resemble the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is described and analyzed using the framework of J. Marshall and T. Radko. In addition to wind and buoyancy forcing at the surface, the model contains a sponge layer at the northern boundary that permits a residual meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to exist at depth. The strength of the residual MOC is diagnosed for different strengths of surface wind stress. It is found that the eddy circulation largely compensates for the changes in Ekman circulation. The extent of the compensation and thus the sensitivity of the MOC to the winds depend on the surface boundary condition. A fixed-heat-flux surface boundary severely limits the ability of the MOC to change. An interactive heat flux leads to greater sensitivity. To explain the MOC sensitivity to the wind strength under the interactive heat flux, transformed Eulerian-mean theory is applied, in which the eddy diffusivity plays a central role in determining the eddy response. A scaling theory for the eddy diffusivity, based on the mechanical energy balance, is developed and tested; the average magnitude of the diffusivity is found to be proportional to the square root of the wind stress. The MOC sensitivity to the winds based on this scaling is compared with the true sensitivity diagnosed from the experiments.

Optimising the FAMOUS climate model: inclusion of global carbon cycling

FAMOUS fills an important role in the hierarchy of climate models, both explicitly resolving atmospheric and oceanic dynamics yet being sufficiently computationally efficient that either very long simulations or large ensembles are possible. An improved set of carbon cycle parameters for this model has been found using a perturbed physics ensemble technique. This is an important step towards building the "Earth System" modelling capability of FAMOUS, which is a reduced resolution, and hence faster running, version of the Hadley Centre Climate model, HadCM3. Two separate 100 member perturbed parameter ensembles were performed; one for the land surface and one for the ocean. The land surface scheme was tested against present-day and past representations of vegetation and the ocean ensemble was tested against observations of nitrate. An advantage of using a relatively fast climate model is that a large number of simulations can be run and hence the model parameter space (a large source of climate model uncertainty) can be more thoroughly sampled. This has the associated benefit of being able to assess the sensitivity of model results to changes in each parameter. The climatologies of surface and tropospheric air temperature and precipitation are improved relative to previous versions of FAMOUS. The improved representation of upper atmosphere temperatures is driven by improved ozone concentrations near the tropopause and better upper level winds.

Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones

An idealised modelling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descending mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localised regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. Moist baroclinic lifecycle (LC1) simulations are performed with modifications to produce cyclones resembling observed sting-jet cyclones. A sting jet exists in the idealised control cyclone with similar characteristics to the sting jet in a simulation of windstorm Gudrun (a confirmed sting-jet case). Unlike in windstorm Gudrun, a low-level layer of strong moist static stability prohibits the descent of the strong winds from above the boundary layer to the surface in the idealised case. Conditional symmetric instability (CSI) exists in the cloud head and dissipates as the sting jet leaves the cloud head and descends. The descending, initially moist, sting-jet trajectories consistently have negative or near-zero saturated moist potential vorticity but moist static stability and inertial stability, consistent with CSI release; the moist static stability becomes negative during the period of most rapid descent, by which time the air is relatively dry implying conditional instability release is unlikely. Sensitivity experiments show that the existence of the sting jet is robust to changes in the initial state, and that the initial tropospheric static stability significantly impacts the descent rate of the sting jet. Inertial and conditional instability are probably being released in the experiment with the weakest initial static stability. This suggests that sting jets can arise through the release of all three instabilities associated with negative saturated moist potential vorticity. While evaporative cooling occurs along the sting-jet trajectories, a sensitivity experiment with evaporation effects turned off shows no significant change to the wind strength or descent rate of the sting jet implying that instability release is the dominant sting-jet driving mechanism.

Evaluation of a photosynthesis-based biogenic isoprene emission scheme in JULES and simulation of isoprene emissions under present-day climate conditions

We have incorporated a semi-mechanistic isoprene emission module into the JULES land-surface scheme, as a first step towards a modelling tool that can be applied for studies of vegetation – atmospheric chemistry interactions, including chemistry-climate feedbacks. Here, we evaluate the coupled model against local above-canopy isoprene emission flux measurements from six flux tower sites as well as satellite-derived estimates of isoprene emission over tropical South America and east and south Asia. The model simulates diurnal variability well: correlation coefficients are significant (at the 95 % level) for all flux tower sites. The model reproduces day-to-day variability with significant correlations (at the 95 % confidence level) at four of the six flux tower sites. At the UMBS site, a complete set of seasonal observations is available for two years (2000 and 2002). The model reproduces the seasonal pattern of emission during 2002, but does less well in the year 2000. The model overestimates observed emissions at all sites, which is partially because it does not include isoprene loss through the canopy. Comparison with the satellite-derived isoprene-emission estimates suggests that the model simulates the main spatial patterns, seasonal and inter-annual variability over tropical regions. The model yields a global annual isoprene emission of 535 ± 9 TgC yr−1 during the 1990s, 78 % of which from forested areas.