Climate models without pre-industrial volcanic forcing underestimate historical ocean thermal expansion

Episodic explosive volcanic eruptions are a natural part of the climate system but are often omitted from atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) preindustrial spin-up and control experiments. This omission imposes a negative bias on ocean heat uptake in simulations of the historical period. In models of a range of complexity, we find that global-mean sea level rise due to thermal expansion during the last ∼ 150 years is consequently underestimated by 5–30 mm, which is a substantial proportion of the model mean of 50 mm in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 AOGCMs with anthropogenic forcing only, and is therefore important in accounting for 20th century sea level rise. We test and recommend a procedure for removing the bias.

Ixodes ricinus (Ixodidae), an occasional phoront on necrophagous and coprophagous beetles in Europe

For ticks, phoretic behaviour using insects associated with vertebrates might offer an alternative strategy to host-seeking. Here we report for the first time the presence of immature stages of the most widespread tick species in Western Europe, Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae), on three beetle species belonging to families Silphidae and Geotrupidae (Coleoptera). Specimens were collected while performing fieldwork surveys on insect diversity during the peak of tick’s questing behaviour, therefore, in July and August of 2009 and 2010. The collections took place in two Natural Parks, the Aiako Harria, Guipúzcoa in Northern Spain and Wellington Country Park, Berkshire, in England. The silphid species Nicrophorus vespilloides, together with the geotrupid Trypocopris pyrenaeus were both collected from pig-carcasses and both carried nymphs of I. ricinus; while, the geotrupid Anoplotrupes stercorosus was carrying a tick larva while feeding on Red deer dung. These findings revealed an unnoticed but common relation of ticks not only with decomposed animals but also with insect scavengers. We discuss the rationale of this phenomenon.

Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulation for 6000 years B.P. and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO2 concentration was pre-industrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate “anomalies” (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 °N north (to 18 °N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks.

Terrestrial biosphere changes over the last 120 kyr and their impact on ocean δ 13C

A new global synthesis and biomization of long (>40 kyr) pollen-data records is presented, and used with simulations from the HadCM3 and FAMOUS climate models to analyse the dynamics of the global terrestrial biosphere and carbon storage over the last glacial–interglacial cycle. Global modelled (BIOME4) biome distributions over time generally agree well with those inferred from pollen data. The two climate models show good agreement in global net primary productivity (NPP). NPP is strongly influenced by atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations through CO2 fertilization. The combined effects of modelled changes in vegetation and (via a simple model) soil carbon result in a global terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum that is 210–470 Pg C less than in pre-industrial time. Without the contribution from exposed glacial continental shelves the reduction would be larger, 330–960 Pg C. Other intervals of low terrestrial carbon storage include stadial intervals at 108 and 85 ka BP, and between 60 and 65 ka BP during Marine Isotope Stage 4. Terrestrial carbon storage, determined by the balance of global NPP and decomposition, influences the stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) of seawater because terrestrial organic carbon is depleted in 13C. Using a simple carbon-isotope mass balance equation we find agreement in trends between modelled ocean δ13C based on modelled land carbon storage, and palaeo-archives of ocean δ13C, confirming that terrestrial carbon storage variations may be important drivers of ocean δ13C changes.

Replacing fat and sugar with inulin in cakes: bubble size distribution, physical and sensory properties

The replacement of fat and sugar in cakes is a challenge as they have an important effect on the structural and sensory properties. Moreover, there is the possibility to incorporate an additional value using novel replacers. In this work, inulin and oligofructose were used as fat and sugar replacers, respectively. Different combinations of replacement levels were investigated: fat replacement (0 and 50 %) and sugar replacement (0, 20, 30, 40 and 50 %). Simulated microbaking was carried out to study bubble size distribution during baking. Batter viscosity and weight loss during baking were also analysed. Cake characteristics were studied in terms of cell crumb structure, height, texture and sensory properties. Fat and sugar replacement gave place to batters with low apparent viscosity values. During heating, bubbles underwent a marked expansion in replaced cakes if compared to the control cake. The low batter stability in fat-replaced samples increased bubble movement, giving place to cakes with bigger cells and less height than the control. Sugar-replaced samples had smaller and fewer cells and lower height than the control. Moreover, sugar replacement decreased hardness and cohesiveness and in- creased springiness, which could be related with a denser crumb and an easily crumbled product. Regarding the sensory analysis, a replacement up to 50 % of fat and 30 % of sugar, separately and simultaneously, did not change remarkably the overall acceptability of the cakes. However, the sponginess and the sweetness could be improved in all the replaced cakes, according to the Just About Right scales.

Maternal antenatal anxiety, postnatal stroking and emotional problems in children: outcomes predicted from pre and postnatal programming hypotheses

Background Mothers' self-reported stroking of their infants over the first weeks of life modifies the association between prenatal depression and physiological and emotional reactivity at 7 months, consistent with animal studies of the effects of tactile stimulation. We now investigate whether the effects of maternal stroking persist to 2.5 years. Given animal and human evidence for sex differences in the effects of prenatal stress we compare associations in boys and girls. Method From a general population sample of 1233 first-time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation we drew a random sample of 316 for assessment at 32 weeks, stratified by reported inter-partner psychological abuse, a risk indicator for child development. Of these mothers, 243 reported at 5 and 9 weeks how often they stroked their infants, and completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) at 2.5 years post-delivery. Results There was a significant interaction between prenatal anxiety and maternal stroking in the prediction of CBCL internalizing (p = 0.001) and anxious/depressed scores (p < 0.001). The effects were stronger in females than males, and the three-way interaction prenatal anxiety × maternal stroking × sex of infant was significant for internalizing symptoms (p = 0.003). The interactions arose from an association between prenatal anxiety and internalizing symptoms only in the presence of low maternal stroking. Conclusions The findings are consistent with stable epigenetic effects, many sex specific, reported in animal studies. While epigenetic mechanisms may be underlying the associations, it remains to be established whether stroking affects gene expression in humans.

Modelled and observed changes in aerosols and surface solar radiation over Europe between 1960 and 2009

Substantial changes in anthropogenic aerosols and precursor gas emissions have occurred over recent decades due to the implementation of air pollution control legislation and economic growth. The response of atmospheric aerosols to these changes and the impact on climate are poorly constrained, particularly in studies using detailed aerosol chemistry–climate models. Here we compare the HadGEM3-UKCA (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model-United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols) coupled chemistry–climate model for the period 1960–2009 against extensive ground-based observations of sulfate aerosol mass (1978–2009), total suspended particle matter (SPM, 1978–1998), PM10 (1997–2009), aerosol optical depth (AOD, 2000–2009), aerosol size distributions (2008–2009) and surface solar radiation (SSR, 1960–2009) over Europe. The model underestimates observed sulfate aerosol mass (normalised mean bias factor (NMBF) = −0.4), SPM (NMBF = −0.9), PM10 (NMBF = −0.2), aerosol number concentrations (N30 NMBF = −0.85; N50 NMBF = −0.65; and N100 NMBF = −0.96) and AOD (NMBF = −0.01) but slightly overpredicts SSR (NMBF = 0.02). Trends in aerosol over the observational period are well simulated by the model, with observed (simulated) changes in sulfate of −68 % (−78 %), SPM of −42 % (−20 %), PM10 of −9 % (−8 %) and AOD of −11 % (−14 %). Discrepancies in the magnitude of simulated aerosol mass do not affect the ability of the model to reproduce the observed SSR trends. The positive change in observed European SSR (5 %) during 1990–2009 ("brightening") is better reproduced by the model when aerosol radiative effects (ARE) are included (3 %), compared to simulations where ARE are excluded (0.2 %). The simulated top-of-the-atmosphere aerosol radiative forcing over Europe under all-sky conditions increased by > 3.0 W m−2 during the period 1970–2009 in response to changes in anthropogenic emissions and aerosol concentrations.

Before transparency: control and communication in Early-Modern Europe

Today, transparency is hailed as a key to good governance and economic efficiency, with national states implementing new laws to allow citizens access to information. It is therefore paradoxical that, as shown by a series of crises and scandals, modern governments and international agencies frequently have paid only lip-service to such ideals. Since Jeremy Bentham first introduced the concept of transparency into the language in 1789, few societal debates have sparked so much interest within the academic community, and across a variety of disciplines, using different approaches and methodologies. Within these current debates, however, one fact is striking: the lack of historical reflection about the development of the concept of transparency, both as a principle and as applied in practice, prior to its inception. Accordingly, the aim of this special issue is to contribute to historicising the ways in which communication and control over fiscal policy and state finances operated in early modern European polities.

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out the interest rates from exchange rates. The following analysis is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c.1383-1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non-usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.

Patterns of hominin occupation and cultural diversity across the Gebel Akhdar of Northern Libya over the last ~200 kyr

Excavations at Haua Fteah cave in Cyrenaica, Libya, have revealed a cultural sequence that may span the last glacial–interglacial-glacial cycle. The TRANS-NAP project has been re-excavating Haua Fteah and conducting geoarchaeological survey of an ecologically diverse landscape that includes the fertile Gebel Akhdar and littoral, pre-desert, and desert biomes. A major aim of this project is to characterize cultural and environmental changes across the region and correlate the surface archaeology with that from Haua Fteah. To date, 181 sites have been recorded, ranging from the Middle Stone Age (MSA) to Late Stone Age (LSA). Their geographic distribution suggests temporal variation in patterns of hominin habitat preference, with significantly more LSA than MSA sites at higher elevations. The surface archaeology also points to substantial spatiotemporal technological variation within the MSA. These patterns may be explained by both paleoenvironmental change and paleodemographic shifts in the region, resulting in a variety of hominin adaptive responses.

War and culture studies in 2016. Putting 'translation' into the transnational?

The first issue of the 'Journal of War and Culture Studies' in 2008 mapped out the academic space which the discipline sought to occupy. Nearly a decade later, the location of war, traditionally within the nation-state, is being challenged in ways which arguably affect the analytical spaces of War and Culture Studies. The article argues for an overt engagement with a reconceptualization of the location of war as broader in both spatial and temporal terms than the nation-state. Within this framing, it identifies local 'contact zones' which are multi-vocal translational spaces, and calls for an incorporation of 'translation' into our analyses of war: translating identities, including associations of the material as well as of subjective identities, and espousing a conscious interdisciplinarity which might lead us to focus more on the performative than the representational. Putting 'translation' into the 'transnational' marks the spaces of War and culture studies as multilingual, making accessible the cultural products and cultural analyses of a much broader range of sources and reflections. The article calls for the discipline of Translation Studies to become a leading contributor to War and Culture Studies in the years to come.