Global radiative and climate effect of the water vapour continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths

Recent laboratory measurements show that absorption by the water vapour continuum in near-infrared windows may be about an order of magnitude higher than assumed in many radiation codes. The radiative impact of the continuum at visible and near-infrared wavelengths is examined for the present day and for a possible future warmer climate (with a global-mean total column water increase of 33%). The calculations use a continuum model frequently used in climate models (‘CKD’) and a continuum model where absorption is enhanced at wavelengths greater than 1 µm based on recent measurements (‘CAVIAR’). The continuum predominantly changes the partitioning between solar radiation absorbed by the surface and the atmosphere; changes in top-of-atmosphere net irradiances are smaller. The global-mean clear-sky atmospheric absorption is enhanced by 1.5 W m−2 (about 2%) and 2.8 W m−2 (about 3.5%) for CKD and CAVIAR respectively, relative to a hypothetical no-continuum case, with all-sky enhancements about 80% of these values. The continuum is, in relative terms, more important for radiation budget changes between the present day and a possible future climate. Relative to the no-continuum case, the increase in global-mean clear-sky absorption is 8% higher using CKD and almost 20% higher using CAVIAR; all-sky enhancements are about half these values. The effect of the continuum is estimated for the solar component of the water vapour feedback, the reduction in downward surface irradiance and precipitation change in a warmer world. For CKD and CAVIAR respectively, and relative to the no-continuum case, the solar component of the water vapour feedback is enhanced by about 4 and 9%, the change in clear-sky downward surface irradiance is 7 and 18% more negative, and the global-mean precipitation response decreases by 1 and 4%. There is a continued need for improved continuum measurements, especially at atmospheric temperatures and at wavelengths below 2 µm.

Climate at high-obliquity

The question of climate at high obliquity is raised in the context of both exoplanet studies (e.g. habitability) and paleoclimates studies (evidence for low-latitude glaciation during the Neoproterozoic and the ”Snowball Earth” hypothesis). States of high obliquity, φ, are distinctive in that, for φ ≥54◦, the poles receive more solar radiation in the annual mean than the Equator, opposite to the present day situation. In addition, the seasonal cycle of insolation is extreme, with the poles alternatively “facing” the sun and sheltering in the dark for months. The novelty of our approach is to consider the role of a dynamical ocean in controlling the surface climate at high obliquity, which in turn requires understanding of the surface winds patterns when temperature gradients are reversed. To address these questions, a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice GCM configured on an aquaplanet is employed. Except for the absence of topography and modified obliquity, the set-up is Earth-like. Two large obliquities φ, 54◦ and 90◦, are compared to today’s Earth value, φ=23.5◦. Three key results emerge at high obliquity: 1) despite reversed temper- ature gradients, mid-latitudes surface winds are westerly and trade winds exist at the equator (as for φ=23.5◦) although the westerlies are confined to the summer hemisphere, 2) a habitable planet is possible with mid-latitude temperatures in the range 300-280 K and 3) a stable climate state with an ice cap limited to the equatorial region is unlikely. We clarify the dynamics behind these features (notably by an analysis of the potential vorticity structure and conditions for baroclinic instability of the atmosphere). Interestingly, we find that the absence of a stable partially glaciated state is critically linked to the absence of ocean heat transport during winter, a feature ultimately traced back to the high seasonality of baroclinic instability conditions in the atmosphere.

A risk-based framework for assessing the effectiveness of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Geoengineering by stratospheric aerosol injection has been proposed as a policy response to warming from human emissions of greenhouse gases, but it may produce unequal regional impacts. We present a simple, intuitive risk-based framework for classifying these impacts according to whether geoengineering increases or decreases the risk of substantial climate change, with further classification by the level of existing risk from climate change from increasing carbon dioxide concentrations. This framework is applied to two climate model simulations of geoengineering counterbalancing the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentrations, with one using a layer of sulphate aerosol in the lower stratosphere, and the other a reduction in total solar irradiance. The solar dimming model simulation shows less regional inequality of impacts compared with the aerosol geoengineering simulation. In the solar dimming simulation, 10% of the Earth’s surface area, containing 10% of its population and 11% of its gross domestic product, experiences greater risk of substantial precipitation changes under geoengineering than under enhanced carbon dioxide concentrations. In the aerosol geoengineering simulation the increased risk of substantial precipitation change is experienced by 42% of Earth’s surface area, containing 36% of its population and 60% of its gross domestic product.

Stratospheric dynamics and midlatitude jets under geoengineering with space mirrors and sulfate and titania aerosols

The impact on the dynamics of the stratosphere of three approaches to geoengineering by solar radiation management is investigated using idealized simulations of a global climate model. The approaches are geoengineering with sulfate aerosols, titania aerosols, and reduction in total solar irradiance (representing mirrors placed in space). If it were possible to use stratospheric aerosols to counterbalance the surface warming produced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, tropical lower stratospheric radiative heating would drive a thermal wind response which would intensify the stratospheric polar vortices. In the Northern Hemisphere this intensification results in strong dynamical cooling of the polar stratosphere. Northern Hemisphere stratospheric sudden warming events become rare (one and two in 65 years for sulfate and titania, respectively). The intensification of the polar vortices results in a poleward shift of the tropospheric midlatitude jets in winter. The aerosol radiative heating enhances the tropical upwelling in the lower stratosphere, influencing the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. In contrast, solar dimming does not produce heating of the tropical lower stratosphere, and so there is little intensification of the polar vortex and no enhanced tropical upwelling. The dynamical response to titania aerosol is qualitatively similar to the response to sulfate.

Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models

Observational analyses of running 5-year ocean heat content trends (Ht) and net downward top of atmosphere radiation (N) are significantly correlated (r~0.6) from 1960 to 1999, but a spike in Ht in the early 2000s is likely spurious since it is inconsistent with estimates of N from both satellite observations and climate model simulations. Variations in N between 1960 and 2000 were dominated by volcanic eruptions, and are well simulated by the ensemble mean of coupled models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We find an observation-based reduction in N of -0.31±0.21 Wm-2 between 1999 and 2005 that potentially contributed to the recent warming slowdown, but the relative roles of external forcing and internal variability remain unclear. While present-day anomalies of N in the CMIP5 ensemble mean and observations agree, this may be due to a cancellation of errors in outgoing longwave and absorbed solar radiation.

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change

Land surface albedo, a key parameter to derive Earth's surface energy balance, is used in the parameterization of numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring and climate change impact assessments. Changes in albedo due to fire have not been fully investigated on a continental and global scale. The main goal of this study, therefore, is to quantify the changes in instantaneous shortwave albedo produced by biomass burning activities and their associated radiative forcing. The study relies on the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned-area product to create an annual composite of areas affected by fire and the MCD43C2 bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) albedo snow-free product to compute a bihemispherical reflectance time series. The approximate day of burning is used to calculate the instantaneous change in shortwave albedo. Using the corresponding National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly mean downward solar radiation flux at the surface, the global radiative forcing associated with fire was computed. The analysis reveals a mean decrease in shortwave albedo of −0.014 (1σ = 0.017), causing a mean positive radiative forcing of 3.99 Wm−2 (1σ = 4.89) over the 2002–20012 time period in areas affected by fire. The greatest drop in mean shortwave albedo change occurs in 2002, which corresponds to the highest total area burned (378 Mha) observed in the same year and produces the highest mean radiative forcing (4.5 Wm−2). Africa is the main contributor in terms of burned area, but forests globally give the highest radiative forcing per unit area and thus give detectable changes in shortwave albedo. The global mean radiative forcing for the whole period studied (~0.0275 Wm−2) shows that the contribution of fires to the Earth system is not insignificant.

Assessing the sensitivities of a distributed snow model to forcing data resolution

Highly heterogeneous mountain snow distributions strongly affect soil moisture patterns; local ecology; and, ultimately, the timing, magnitude, and chemistry of stream runoff. Capturing these vital heterogeneities in a physically based distributed snow model requires appropriately scaled model structures. This work looks at how model scale—particularly the resolutions at which the forcing processes are represented—affects simulated snow distributions and melt. The research area is in the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in southwestern Idaho. In this region, where there is a negative correlation between snow accumulation and melt rates, overall scale degradation pushed simulated melt to earlier in the season. The processes mainly responsible for snow distribution heterogeneity in this region—wind speed, wind-affected snow accumulations, thermal radiation, and solar radiation—were also independently rescaled to test process-specific spatiotemporal sensitivities. It was found that in order to accurately simulate snowmelt in this catchment, the snow cover needed to be resolved to 100 m. Wind and wind-affected precipitation—the primary influence on snow distribution—required similar resolution. Thermal radiation scaled with the vegetation structure (~100 m), while solar radiation was adequately modeled with 100–250-m resolution. Spatiotemporal sensitivities to model scale were found that allowed for further reductions in computational costs through the winter months with limited losses in accuracy. It was also shown that these modeling-based scale breaks could be associated with physiographic and vegetation structures to aid a priori modeling decisions.

Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models

Climate change is amplified in the Arctic region. Arctic amplification has been found in past warm1 and glacial2 periods, as well as in historical observations3, 4 and climate model experiments5, 6. Feedback effects associated with temperature, water vapour and clouds have been suggested to contribute to amplified warming in the Arctic, but the surface albedo feedback—the increase in surface absorption of solar radiation when snow and ice retreat—is often cited as the main contributor7, 8, 9, 10. However, Arctic amplification is also found in models without changes in snow and ice cover11, 12. Here we analyse climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archive to quantify the contributions of the various feedbacks. We find that in the simulations, the largest contribution to Arctic amplification comes from a temperature feedbacks: as the surface warms, more energy is radiated back to space in low latitudes, compared with the Arctic. This effect can be attributed to both the different vertical structure of the warming in high and low latitudes, and a smaller increase in emitted blackbody radiation per unit warming at colder temperatures. We find that the surface albedo feedback is the second main contributor to Arctic amplification and that other contributions are substantially smaller or even opposeArctic amplification.

Vegetation and soils feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon response to orbital forcing in early to middle Holocene

Fossil pollen, ancient lake sediments and archaeological evidence from Africa indicate that the Sahel and Sahara regions were considerably wetter than today during the early to middle Holocene period, about 12,000 to 5,000 years ago1–4. Vegetation associated with the modern Sahara/Sahel boundary was about 5° farther north, and there were more and larger lakes between 15 and 30° N. Simulations with climate models have shown that these wetter conditions were probably caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters that increased the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere, enhanced the land-ocean temperature contrast, and thereby strengthened the African summer monsoon5–7. However, these simulations underestimated the consequent monsoon enhancement as inferred from palaeorecords4. Here we use a climate model to show that changes in vegetation and soil may have increased the climate response to orbital forcing. We find that replacing today's orbital forcing with that of the mid-Holocene increases summer precipitation by 12% between 15 and 22° N. Replacing desert with grassland, and desert soil with more loamy soil, further enhances the summer precipitation (by 6 and 10% respectively), giving a total precipitation increase of 28%. When the simulated climate changes are applied to a biome model, vegetation becomes established north of the current Sahara/Sahel boundary, thereby shrinking the area of the Sahara by 11% owing to orbital forcing alone, and by 20% owing to the combined influence of orbital forcing and the prescribed vegetation and soil changes. The inclusion of the vegetation and soil feedbacks thus brings the model simulations and palaeovegetation observations into closer agreement.

On the importance of Vaisala RS92 radiosonde humidity corrections for a better agreement between measured and modeled satellite radiances

A study has been carried out to assess the importance of radiosonde corrections in improving the agreement between satellite and radiosonde measurements of upper-tropospheric humidity. Infrared [High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS)-12] and microwave [Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU)-18] measurements from the NOAA-17 satellite were used for this purpose. The agreement was assessed by comparing the satellite measurements against simulated measurements using collocated radiosonde profiles of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program undertaken at tropical and midlatitude sites. The Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) was used to simulate the satellite radiances. The comparisons have been done under clear-sky conditions, separately for daytime and nighttime soundings. Only Vaisala RS92 radiosonde sensors were used and an empirical correction (EC) was applied to the radiosonde measurements. The EC includes correction for mean calibration bias and for solar radiation error, and it removes radiosonde bias relative to three instruments of known accuracy. For the nighttime dataset, the EC significantly reduces the bias from 0.63 to 20.10 K in AMSU-18 and from 1.26 to 0.35 K in HIRS-12. The EC has an even greater impact on the daytime dataset with a bias reduction from 2.38 to 0.28 K in AMSU-18 and from 2.51 to 0.59 K in HIRS-12. The present study promises a more accurate approach in future radiosonde-based studies in the upper troposphere.

Global climatology of surface water temperatures of large lakes by remote sensing

Lake surface water temperatures (LSWTs) of 246 globally distributed large lakes were derived from Along-Track Scanning Radiometers (ATSR) for the period 1991–2011. The climatological cycles of mean LSWT derived from these data quantify on a global scale the responses of large lakes' surface temperatures to the annual cycle of forcing by solar radiation and the ambient meteorological conditions. LSWT cycles reflect the twice annual peak in net solar radiation for lakes between 1°S to 12°N. For lakes without a lake-mean seasonal ice cover, LSWT extremes exceed air temperatures by 0.5–1.7 °C for maximum and 0.7–1.9 °C for minimum temperature. The summer maximum LSWTs of lakes from 25°S to 35°N show a linear decrease with increasing altitude; −3.76 ± 0.17 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95), marginally lower than the corresponding air temperature decrease with altitude −4.15 ± 0.24 °C km−1 (inline image = 0.95). Lake altitude of tropical lakes account for 0.78–0.83 (inline image) of the variation in the March to June LSWT–air temperature differences, with differences decreasing by 1.9 °C as the altitude increases from 500 to 1800 m above sea level (a.s.l.) We define an ‘open water phase’ as the length of time the lake-mean LSWT remains above 4 °C. There is a strong global correlation between the start and end of the lake-mean open water phase and the spring and fall 0 °C air temperature transition days, (inline image = 0.74 and 0.80, respectively), allowing for a good estimation of timing and length of the open water phase of lakes without LSWT observations. Lake depth, lake altitude and distance from coast further explain some of the inter-lake variation in the start and end of the open water phase.

Energy savings in buildings or UHI mitigation? Comparison between green roofs and cool roofs

The intensification of the Urban Heat Island effect (UHI) is a problem that involves several fields, and new adequate solutions are required to mitigate its amplitude. The construction sector is strictly related with this phenomenon; in particular, roofs are the envelope components subject to the highest solar irradiance, hence any mitigation strategy should start from them and involve their appropriate design process. For this purpose, cool materials, i.e. materials which are able to reflect a large amount of solar radiation and avoid overheating of building surfaces have been deeply analyzed in the last years both at building and urban scales, showing their benefits especially in hot climates. However, green roofs also represent a possible way to cope with UHI, even if their design is not straightforward and requires taking into account many variables, strictly related with the local climatic conditions. In this context, the present paper proposes a comparison between cool roofs and green roofs for several Italian cities that are representative of different climatic conditions. In search of the most effective solution, the answers may be different depending on the perspective that leads the comparison, i.e. the need to reduce the energy consumption in buildings or the desire to minimize the contribution of the UHI effect.

Cloud information content analysis of multi-angular measurements in the oxygen A-band: application to 3MI and MSPI

The vertical distribution of cloud cover has a significant impact on a large number of meteorological and climatic processes. Cloud top altitude and cloud geometrical thickness are then essential. Previous studies established the possibility of retrieving those parameters from multi-angular oxygen A-band measurements. Here we perform a study and comparison of the performances of future instruments. The 3MI (Multi-angle, Multi-channel and Multi-polarization Imager) instrument developed by EUMETSAT, which is an extension of the POLDER/PARASOL instrument, and MSPI (Multi-angles Spectro-Polarimetric Imager) develoloped by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory will measure total and polarized light reflected by the Earth's atmosphere–surface system in several spectral bands (from UV to SWIR) and several viewing geometries. Those instruments should provide opportunities to observe the links between the cloud structures and the anisotropy of the reflected solar radiation into space. Specific algorithms will need be developed in order to take advantage of the new capabilities of this instrument. However, prior to this effort, we need to understand, through a theoretical Shannon information content analysis, the limits and advantages of these new instruments for retrieving liquid and ice cloud properties, and especially, in this study, the amount of information coming from the A-Band channel on the cloud top altitude (CTOP) and geometrical thickness (CGT). We compare the information content of 3MI A-Band in two configurations and that of MSPI. Quantitative information content estimates show that the retrieval of CTOP with a high accuracy is possible in almost all cases investigated. The retrieval of CGT seems less easy but possible for optically thick clouds above a black surface, at least when CGT > 1–2 km.

The urban cool island phenomenon in a high-rise high-density city and its mechanisms

The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon has been studied extensively, but there are relatively fewer reports on the so-called urban cool island (UCI) phenomenon. We reveal here that the UCI phenomenon exists in Hong Kong during the day, and is associated with the UHI at night under all wind and cloud conditions. The possible mechanisms for the UCI phenomenon in such a high-rise compact city have been discovered using a lumped urban air temperature model. A new concept of urban cool island degree hours (UCIdh) to measure the UCI intensity and duration is proposed. Our analyses reveal that when anthropogenic heat is small or absent, a high-rise and high-density city experiences a significant daytime UCI effect. This is explained by an intensified heat storage capacity and the reduced solar radiation gain of urban surfaces. However, if anthropogenic heat in the urban area increases further, the UCI phenomenon still exists, yet UCIdh decrease dramatically in a high-rise compact city. In a low-rise, low-density city, the UCI phenomenon also occurs when there is no anthropogenic heat, but easily disappears when there is little anthropogenic heat, and the UHI phenomenon dominates. This probably explains why the UHI phenomenon is often observed, but the UCI phenomenon is rarely observed. The co-existence of urban heat/cool island phenomena implies reduction of the daily temperature range (DTR) in such cities, and its dependence on urban morphology also implies that urban morphology can be used to control the urban thermal environment.

The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter(PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000–116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US$232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr−1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as having an unintended impact on the regional radiative balance and climate.