Climate determinism revisited: multiple equilibria in a complex climate model

Multiple equilibria in a coupled ocean–atmosphere–sea ice general circulation model (GCM) of an aquaplanet with many degrees of freedom are studied. Three different stable states are found for exactly the same set of parameters and external forcings: a cold state in which a polar sea ice cap extends into the midlatitudes; a warm state, which is ice free; and a completely sea ice–covered “snowball” state. Although low-order energy balance models of the climate are known to exhibit intransitivity (i.e., more than one climate state for a given set of governing equations), the results reported here are the first to demonstrate that this is a property of a complex coupled climate model with a consistent set of equations representing the 3D dynamics of the ocean and atmosphere. The coupled model notably includes atmospheric synoptic systems, large-scale circulation of the ocean, a fully active hydrological cycle, sea ice, and a seasonal cycle. There are no flux adjustments, with the system being solely forced by incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. It is demonstrated that the multiple equilibria owe their existence to the presence of meridional structure in ocean heat transport: namely, a large heat transport out of the tropics and a relatively weak high-latitude transport. The associated large midlatitude convergence of ocean heat transport leads to a preferred latitude at which the sea ice edge can rest. The mechanism operates in two very different ocean circulation regimes, suggesting that the stabilization of the large ice cap could be a robust feature of the climate system. Finally, the role of ocean heat convergence in permitting multiple equilibria is further explored in simpler models: an atmospheric GCM coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean and an energy balance model

High Resolution Melt (HRM) analysis is an efficient tool to genotype EMS mutants in complex crop genomes

Background: Targeted Induced Loci Lesions IN Genomes (TILLING) is increasingly being used to generate and identify mutations in target genes of crop genomes. TILLING populations of several thousand lines have been generated in a number of crop species including Brassica rapa. Genetic analysis of mutants identified by TILLING requires an efficient, high-throughput and cost effective genotyping method to track the mutations through numerous generations. High resolution melt (HRM) analysis has been used in a number of systems to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and insertion/deletions (IN/DELs) enabling the genotyping of different types of samples. HRM is ideally suited to high-throughput genotyping of multiple TILLING mutants in complex crop genomes. To date it has been used to identify mutants and genotype single mutations. The aim of this study was to determine if HRM can facilitate downstream analysis of multiple mutant lines identified by TILLING in order to characterise allelic series of EMS induced mutations in target genes across a number of generations in complex crop genomes. Results: We demonstrate that HRM can be used to genotype allelic series of mutations in two genes, BraA.CAX1a and BraA.MET1.a in Brassica rapa. We analysed 12 mutations in BraA.CAX1.a and five in BraA.MET1.a over two generations including a back-cross to the wild-type. Using a commercially available HRM kit and the Lightscanner™ system we were able to detect mutations in heterozygous and homozygous states for both genes. Conclusions: Using HRM genotyping on TILLING derived mutants, it is possible to generate an allelic series of mutations within multiple target genes rapidly. Lines suitable for phenotypic analysis can be isolated approximately 8-9 months (3 generations) from receiving M3 seed of Brassica rapa from the RevGenUK TILLING service.

Building post crisis watchtowers: investment management Systems and new institutional logics for regulatory compliance

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has precipitated large scale regulatory change. Tight deadlines for implementation require organizations to start working on remediation projects before final drafts of regulations are crystalized. Firms are faced with engaging in complex and costly change management programs at a time when profits are diminished. As a consequence of these factors, pre-crisis logics for organizing compliance practices are being questioned and new approaches introduced. Our study explores the use of Investment Management Systems (IMS) in facilitating compliance arrangements. Our motivation is to understand the new logics and the part played by IMS in supporting these approaches. The study adopts an institutional logics perspective to explore the use of such systems at eight financial organizations. The study found new logics for organizing compliance include consolidation, centralization, harmonization and consistency and that the IMS plays an important role in supporting and enabling related activities.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Pragmatic oriented data interoperability for smart healthcare information systems

Smart healthcare is a complex domain for systems integration due to human and technical factors and heterogeneous data sources involved. As a part of smart city, it is such a complex area where clinical functions require smartness of multi-systems collaborations for effective communications among departments, and radiology is one of the areas highly relies on intelligent information integration and communication. Therefore, it faces many challenges regarding integration and its interoperability such as information collision, heterogeneous data sources, policy obstacles, and procedure mismanagement. The purpose of this study is to conduct an analysis of data, semantic, and pragmatic interoperability of systems integration in radiology department, and to develop a pragmatic interoperability framework for guiding the integration. We select an on-going project at a local hospital for undertaking our case study. The project is to achieve data sharing and interoperability among Radiology Information Systems (RIS), Electronic Patient Record (EPR), and Picture Archiving and Communication Systems (PACS). Qualitative data collection and analysis methods are used. The data sources consisted of documentation including publications and internal working papers, one year of non-participant observations and 37 interviews with radiologists, clinicians, directors of IT services, referring clinicians, radiographers, receptionists and secretary. We identified four primary phases of data analysis process for the case study: requirements and barriers identification, integration approach, interoperability measurements, and knowledge foundations. Each phase is discussed and supported by qualitative data. Through the analysis we also develop a pragmatic interoperability framework that summaries the empirical findings and proposes recommendations for guiding the integration in the radiology context.

Unified framework for construction of rule based classification systems

Automatic generation of classification rules has been an increasingly popular technique in commercial applications such as Big Data analytics, rule based expert systems and decision making systems. However, a principal problem that arises with most methods for generation of classification rules is the overfit-ting of training data. When Big Data is dealt with, this may result in the generation of a large number of complex rules. This may not only increase computational cost but also lower the accuracy in predicting further unseen instances. This has led to the necessity of developing pruning methods for the simplification of rules. In addition, classification rules are used further to make predictions after the completion of their generation. As efficiency is concerned, it is expected to find the first rule that fires as soon as possible by searching through a rule set. Thus a suit-able structure is required to represent the rule set effectively. In this chapter, the authors introduce a unified framework for construction of rule based classification systems consisting of three operations on Big Data: rule generation, rule simplification and rule representation. The authors also review some existing methods and techniques used for each of the three operations and highlight their limitations. They introduce some novel methods and techniques developed by them recently. These methods and techniques are also discussed in comparison to existing ones with respect to efficient processing of Big Data.

Modelling capability and affordance as properties of human/machine resource systems

Understanding how and why the capability of one set of business resources, its structural arrangements and mechanisms compared to another works can provide competitive advantage in terms of new business processes and product and service development. However, most business models of capability are descriptive and lack formal modelling language to qualitatively and quantifiably compare capabilities, Gibson’s theory of affordance, the potential for action, provides a formal basis for a more robust and quantitative model, but most formal affordance models are complex and abstract and lack support for real-world applications. We aim to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of business capability, by developing a quantitative and qualitative model that underpins earlier work on Capability-Affordance Modelling – CAM. This paper integrates an affordance based capability model and the formalism of Coloured Petri Nets to develop a simulation model. Using the model, we show how capability depends on the space time path of interacting resources, the mechanism of transition and specific critical affordance factors relating to the values of the variables for resources, people and physical objects. We show how the model can identify the capabilities of resources to enable the capability to inject a drug and anaesthetise a patient.

Lattice Boltzmann simulation of viscous fluid systems with elastic boundaries

A lattice Boltzmann model able to simulate viscous fluid systems with elastic and movable boundaries is proposed. By introducing the virtual distribution function at the boundary, the Galilean invariance is recovered for the full system. As examples of application, the how in elastic vessels is simulated with the pressure-radius relationship similar to that of the pulmonary blood vessels. The numerical results for steady how are in good agreement with the analytical prediction, while the simulation results for pulsative how agree with the experimental observation of the aortic flows qualitatively. The approach has potential application in the study of the complex fluid systems such as the suspension system as well as the arterial blood flow.

Introducing "ecoputation": a universal systems design process

A universal systems design process is specified, tested in a case study and evaluated. It links English narratives to numbers using a categorical language framework with mathematical mappings taking the place of conjunctions and numbers. The framework is a ring of English narrative words between 1 (option) and 360 (capital); beyond 360 the ring cycles again to 1. English narratives are shown to correspond to the field of fractional numbers. The process can enable the development, presentation and communication of complex narrative policy information among communities of any scale, on a software implementation known as the "ecoputer". The information is more accessible and comprehensive than that in conventional decision support, because: (1) it is expressed in narrative language; and (2) the narratives are expressed as compounds of words within the framework. Hence option generation is made more effective than in conventional decision support processes including Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, Life Cycle Assessment and Cost-Benefit Analysis.The case study is of a participatory workshop in UK bioenergy project objectives and criteria, at which attributes were elicited in environmental, economic and social systems. From the attributes, the framework was used to derive consequences at a range of levels of precision; these are compared with the project objectives and criteria as set out in the Case for Support. The design process is to be supported by a social information manipulation, storage and retrieval system for numeric and verbal narratives attached to the "ecoputer". The "ecoputer" will have an integrated verbal and numeric operating system. Novel design source code language will assist the development of narrative policy. The utility of the program, including in the transition to sustainable development and in applications at both community micro-scale and policy macro-scale, is discussed from public, stakeholder, corporate, Governmental and regulatory perspectives.

Managing change in complex projects: configuration management, asset information and big data

As we enter an era of ‘big data’, asset information is becoming a deliverable of complex projects. Prior research suggests digital technologies enable rapid, flexible forms of project organizing. This research analyses practices of managing change in Airbus, CERN and Crossrail, through desk-based review, interviews, visits and a cross-case workshop. These organizations deliver complex projects, rely on digital technologies to manage large data-sets; and use configuration management, a systems engineering approach with mid-20th century origins, to establish and maintain integrity. In them, configuration management has become more, rather than less, important. Asset information is structured, with change managed through digital systems, using relatively hierarchical, asynchronous and sequential processes. The paper contributes by uncovering limits to flexibility in complex projects where integrity is important. Challenges of managing change are discussed, considering the evolving nature of configuration management; potential use of analytics on complex projects; and implications for research and practice.

Culture bag systems for clinical applications of adult human neural crest-derived stem cells

Introduction Facing the challenging treatment of neurodegenerative diseases as well as complex craniofacial injuries such as those common after cancer therapy, the field of regenerative medicine increasingly relies on stem cell transplantation strategies. Here, neural crest-derived stem cells (NCSCs) offer many promising applications, although scale up of clinical-grade processes prior to potential transplantations is currently limiting. In this study, we aimed to establish a clinical-grade, cost-reducing cultivation system for NCSCs isolated from the adult human nose using cGMP-grade Afc-FEP bags. Methods We cultivated human neural crest-derived stem cells from inferior turbinate (ITSCs) in a cell culture bag system using Afc-FEP bags in human blood plasma-supplemented medium. Investigations of viability, proliferation and expression profile of bag-cultured ITSCs were followed by DNA-content and telomerase activity determination. Cultivated ITSCs were introduced to directed in vitro differentiation assays to assess their potential for mesodermal and ectodermal differentiation. Mesodermal differentiation was determined using an enzyme activity assay (alkaline phosphatase, ALP), respective stainings (Alizarin Red S, Von Kossa and Oil Red O), and RT-PCR, while immunocytochemistry and synaptic vesicle recycling were applied to assay neuroectodermal differentiation of ITSCs. Results When cultivated within Afc-FEP bags, ITSCs grew three-dimensionally in a human blood plasma-derived matrix, thereby showing unchanged morphology, proliferation capability, viability and expression profile in comparison to three dimensionally-cultured ITSCs growing in standard cell culture plastics. Genetic stability of bag-cultured ITSCs was further accompanied by unchanged telomerase activity. Importantly, ITSCs retained their potential to differentiate into mesodermal cell types, particularly including ALP-active, Alizarin Red S-, and Von Kossa-positive osteogenic cell types, as well as adipocytes positive in Oil Red O assays. Bag culture further did not affect the potential of ITSCs to undergo differentiation into neuroectodermal cell types coexpressing β-III-tubulin and MAP2 and exhibiting the capability for synaptic vesicle recycling. Conclusions Here, we report for the first time the successful cultivation of human NCSCs within cGMP-grade Afc-FEP bags using a human blood plasma-supplemented medium. Our findings particularly demonstrate the unchanged differentiation capability and genetic stability of the cultivated NCSCs, suggesting the great potential of this culture system for future medical applications in the field of regenerative medicine.

Energy-efficient resource allocation in OFDM systems with distributed antennas

In this paper, we develop an energy-efficient resource-allocation scheme with proportional fairness for downlink multiuser orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) systems with distributed antennas. Our aim is to maximize energy efficiency (EE) under the constraints of the overall transmit power of each remote access unit (RAU), proportional fairness data rates, and bit error rates (BERs). Because of the nonconvex nature of the optimization problem, obtaining the optimal solution is extremely computationally complex. Therefore, we develop a low-complexity suboptimal algorithm, which separates subcarrier allocation and power allocation. For the low-complexity algorithm, we first allocate subcarriers by assuming equal power distribution. Then, by exploiting the properties of fractional programming, we transform the nonconvex optimization problem in fractional form into an equivalent optimization problem in subtractive form, which includes a tractable solution. Next, an optimal energy-efficient power-allocation algorithm is developed to maximize EE while maintaining proportional fairness. Through computer simulation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed low-complexity algorithm and illustrate the fundamental trade off between energy and spectral-efficient transmission designs.

Controlled dehydration of a ruthenium complex-DNA crystal induces reversible DNA kinking

Hydration-dependent DNA deformation has been known since Rosalind Franklin recognised that the relative humidity of the sample had to be maintained to observe a single conformation in DNA fibre diffraction. We now report for the first time the crystal structure, at the atomic level, of a dehydrated form of a DNA duplex and demonstrate the reversible interconversion to the hydrated form at room temperature. This system, containing d(TCGGCGCCGA) in the presence of Λ-[Ru(TAP)2(dppz)]2+ (TAP = 1,4,5,8-tetraazaphenanthrene, dppz = dipyridophenazine), undergoes a partial transition from an A/B hybrid to the A-DNA conformation, at 84-79% relative humidity. This is accompanied by an increase in kink at the central step from 22° to 51°, with a large movement of the terminal bases forming the intercalation site. This transition is reversible on rehydration. Seven datasets, collected from one crystal at room temperature, show the consequences of dehydration at near-atomic resolution. This result highlights that crystals, traditionally thought of as static systems, are still dynamic and therefore can be the subject of further experimentation.

Urban-scale Environmental Prediction Systems

Weather, climate, water and related environmental conditions, including air quality, all have profound effects on cities. A growing importance is being attached to understanding and predicting atmospheric conditions and their interactions with other components of the Earth System in cities, at multiple scales. We highlight the need for: (1) development of high-resolution coupled environmental prediction models that include realistic city-specific processes, boundary conditions and fluxes; (2) enhanced observational systems to support (force, constrain, evaluate) these models to provide high quality forecasts for new urban services; (3) provision of meteorological and related environmental variables to aid protection of human health and the environment; (4) new targeted and customized delivery platforms using modern communication techniques, developed with users to ensure that services, advice and warnings result in appropriate action; and (5) development of new skill and capacity to make best use of technologies to deliver new services in complex, challenging and evolving city environments. We highlight the importance of a coordinated and strategic approach that draws on, but does not replicate, past work to maximize benefits to stakeholders.

Design of a unified data with business rules storage model for OLTP and OLAP systems

This paper reviews the literature concerning the practice of using Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) systems to recall information stored by Online Transactional Processing (OLTP) systems. Such a review provides a basis for discussion on the need for the information that are recalled through OLAP systems to maintain the contexts of transactions with the data captured by the respective OLTP system. The paper observes an industry trend involving the use of OLTP systems to process information into data, which are then stored in databases without the business rules that were used to process information and data stored in OLTP databases without associated business rules. This includes the necessitation of a practice, whereby, sets of business rules are used to extract, cleanse, transform and load data from disparate OLTP systems into OLAP databases to support the requirements for complex reporting and analytics. These sets of business rules are usually not the same as business rules used to capture data in particular OLTP systems. The paper argues that, differences between the business rules used to interpret these same data sets, risk gaps in semantics between information captured by OLTP systems and information recalled through OLAP systems. Literature concerning the modeling of business transaction information as facts with context as part of the modelling of information systems were reviewed to identify design trends that are contributing to the design quality of OLTP and OLAP systems. The paper then argues that; the quality of OLTP and OLAP systems design has a critical dependency on the capture of facts with associated context, encoding facts with contexts into data with business rules, storage and sourcing of data with business rules, decoding data with business rules into the facts with the context and recall of facts with associated contexts. The paper proposes UBIRQ, a design model to aid the co-design of data with business rules storage for OLTP and OLAP purposes. The proposed design model provides the opportunity for the implementation and use of multi-purpose databases, and business rules stores for OLTP and OLAP systems. Such implementations would enable the use of OLTP systems to record and store data with executions of business rules, which will allow for the use of OLTP and OLAP systems to query data with business rules used to capture the data. Thereby ensuring information recalled via OLAP systems preserves the contexts of transactions as per the data captured by the respective OLTP system.