Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Change in convergence and accommodation after two weeks of eye exercises in typical young adults

Abstract: Introduction Although eye exercises appear to help heterophoria, convergence insufficiency and intermittent strabismus, true treatment effects can be confounded by placebo, practice and encouragement factors. This study assessed objective changes in vergence and accommodation responses in typical naïve young adults after two weeks of exercises compared to control conditions to assess the extent of treatment effects occur above other factors. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were randomly assigned to 6 exercise groups or 2 no-treatment groups. Treatment targeted i) accommodation, ii)vergence, iii) both, iv) convergence>accommodation, v)accommodation>convergence, or vi) a placebo. All were re-tested under identical conditions, except for the second control group who were additionally encouraged during testing. Objective accommodation and vergence were assessed to a range of targets moving in depth containing combinations of blur, disparity and proximity/looming cues. Results Response gain improved more for less naturalistic targets where more improvement was possible. Convergence exercises improved vergence for near across all targets (P=.035). Mean accommodation changed similarly,but non-significantly. No other treatment group differed significantly from the non-encouraged control group, while encouraging effort produced significantly increased vergence (P=.004) and accommodation (P=.005) gains in the other control group. Conclusions True treatment effects were small, only significantly better after vergence exercises to a non-accommodative target, and were rarely related to response they were designed to improve. Exercising accommodation without convergence made no difference to accommodation to cues containing detail. Additional effort improved objective responses the most, so should be controlled carefully in research, and considered when auditing treatment.

Approximation by harmonic polynomials in star-shaped domains and exponential convergence of Trefftz hp-dGFEM

We study the approximation of harmonic functions by means of harmonic polynomials in two-dimensional, bounded, star-shaped domains. Assuming that the functions possess analytic extensions to a delta-neighbourhood of the domain, we prove exponential convergence of the approximation error with respect to the degree of the approximating harmonic polynomial. All the constants appearing in the bounds are explicit and depend only on the shape-regularity of the domain and on delta. We apply the obtained estimates to show exponential convergence with rate O(exp(−b square root N)), N being the number of degrees of freedom and b>0, of a hp-dGFEM discretisation of the Laplace equation based on piecewise harmonic polynomials. This result is an improvement over the classical rate O(exp(−b cubic root N )), and is due to the use of harmonic polynomial spaces, as opposed to complete polynomial spaces.

Screening for convergence insufficiency using the CISS is not indicated in young adults

Aim This paper presents Convergence Insufficiency Symptom Survey (CISS) and orthoptic findings in a sample of typical young adults who considered themselves to have normal eyesight apart from weak spectacles. Methods The CISS questionnaire was administered,followed by a full orthoptic evaluation, to 167 university undergraduate and postgraduate students during the recruitment phase of another study. The primary criterion for recruitment to this study was that participants‘feltthey had normal eyesight'. A CISS score of ≥21 was used to define‘significant’symptoms, and convergence insufficiency (CI) was defined as convergence≥8cm from the nose with a fusion range <15Δ base-out with small or no exophoria. Results The group mean CISS score was 15.4. In all, 17(10%) of the participants were diagnosed with CI, but 11(65%) of these did not have significant symptoms. 41(25%) participants returned a‘high’CISS score of ≥21 but only 6 (15%) of these had genuine CI. Sensitivity of the CISS to detect CI in this asymptomatic sample was 38%; specificity 77%; positive predictive value 15%; and negative predictive value 92%. The area under a receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.596 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.73). Conclusions‘Visual symptoms’are common in young adults, but often not related to any clinical defect, while true CI may be asymptomatic. This study suggests that screening for CI is not indicated

Umami: a delicious flavor formed by convergence of taste and olfactory pathways in the human brain

Umami taste is produced by glutamate acting on a fifth taste system. However, glutamate presented alone as a taste stimulus is not highly pleasant, and does not act synergistically with other tastes (sweet, salt, bitter and sour). We show here that when glutamate is given in combination with a consonant, savory, odour (vegetable), the resulting flavor can be much more pleasant. Moreover, we showed using functional brain imaging with fMRI that the glutamate taste and savory odour combination produced much greater activation of the medial orbitofrontal cortex and pregenual cingulate cortex than the sum of the activations by the taste and olfactory components presented separately. Supralinear effects were much less (and significantly less) evident for sodium chloride and vegetable odour. Further, activations in these brain regions were correlated with the pleasantness and fullness of the flavor, and with the consonance of the taste and olfactory components. Supralinear effects of glutamate taste and savory odour were not found in the insular primary taste cortex. We thus propose that glutamate acts by the nonlinear effects it can produce when combined with a consonant odour in multimodal cortical taste-olfactory convergence regions. We propose the concept that umami can be thought of as a rich and delicious flavor that is produced by a combination of glutamate taste and a consonant savory odour. Glutamate is thus a flavor enhancer because of the way that it can combine supralinearly with consonant odours in cortical areas where the taste and olfactory pathways converge far beyond the receptors.

Energy-efficient hybrid system for Wireless Body Area Network Applications

Wireless Body Area Networks (WBANs) consist of a number of miniaturized wearable or implanted sensor nodes that are employed to monitor vital parameters of a patient over long duration of time. These sensors capture physiological data and wirelessly transfer the collected data to a local base station in order to be further processed. Almost all of these body sensors are expected to have low data-rate and to run on a battery. Since recharging or replacing the battery is not a simple task specifically in the case of implanted devices such as pacemakers, extending the lifetime of sensor nodes in WBANs is one of the greatest challenges. To achieve this goal, WBAN systems employ low-power communication transceivers and low duty cycle Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols. Although, currently used MAC protocols are able to reduce the energy consumption of devices for transmission and reception, yet they are still unable to offer an ultimate energy self-sustaining solution for low-power MAC protocols. This paper proposes to utilize energy harvesting technologies in low-power MAC protocols. This novel approach can further reduce energy consumption of devices in WBAN systems.

Disparity-driven vs blur-driven models of accommodation and convergence in binocular vision and intermittent strabismus

Background. Current models of concomitant, intermittent strabismus, heterophoria, convergence and accommodation anomalies are either theoretically complex or incomplete. We propose an alternative and more practical way to conceptualize clinical patterns. Methods. In each of three hypothetical scenarios (normal; high AC/A and low CA/C ratios; low AC/A and high CA/C ratios) there can be a disparity-biased or blur-biased “style”, despite identical ratios. We calculated a disparity bias index (DBI) to reflect these biases. We suggest how clinical patterns fit these scenarios and provide early objective data from small illustrative clinical groups. Results. Normal adults and children showed disparity bias (adult DBI 0.43 (95%CI 0.50-0.36), child DBI 0.20 (95%CI 0.31-0.07) (p=0.001). Accommodative esotropes showed less disparity-bias (DBI 0.03). In the high AC/A and low CA/C scenario, early presbyopes had mean DBI of 0.17 (95%CI 0.28-0.06), compared to DBI of -0.31 in convergence excess esotropes. In the low AC/A and high CA/C scenario near exotropes had mean DBI of 0.27, while we predict that non-strabismic, non-amblyopic hyperopes with good vision without spectacles will show lower DBIs. Disparity bias ranged between 1.25 and -1.67. Conclusions. Establishing disparity or blur bias, together with knowing whether convergence to target demand exceeds accommodation or vice versa explains clinical patterns more effectively than AC/A and CA/C ratios alone. Excessive bias or inflexibility in near-cue use increases risk of clinical problems. We suggest clinicians look carefully at details of accommodation and convergence changes induced by lenses, dissociation and prisms and use these to plan treatment in relation to the model.

Noisy Monte Carlo: convergence of Markov chains with approximate transition kernels

Monte Carlo algorithms often aim to draw from a distribution π by simulating a Markov chain with transition kernel P such that π is invariant under P. However, there are many situations for which it is impractical or impossible to draw from the transition kernel P. For instance, this is the case with massive datasets, where is it prohibitively expensive to calculate the likelihood and is also the case for intractable likelihood models arising from, for example, Gibbs random fields, such as those found in spatial statistics and network analysis. A natural approach in these cases is to replace P by an approximation Pˆ. Using theory from the stability of Markov chains we explore a variety of situations where it is possible to quantify how ’close’ the chain given by the transition kernel Pˆ is to the chain given by P . We apply these results to several examples from spatial statistics and network analysis.

The notions of 'restriction' and 'discrimination' in the context of the free movement of persons provisions: from a relationship of interdependence to one of (almost complete) independence

This article aims to analyse how the meaning of the notions of ‘restrictions’ and ‘discrimination’ in EU free movement law has developed through the years, and to explore how the relationship between them has evolved. It is explained that the two concepts under examination had originally been closely intertwined, in the sense that one defined the other, the element holding them together being the aim of the relevant provisions to liberalise the inter-State movement of persons in the EU, as part of the process of establishing an internal market. Yet, more recently, the way that the Court has chosen to delimit their scope, illustrates that each of these notions can now have a life of its own, meaning that ‘discrimination’ can include discriminatory measures which do not lead to restrictions that are contrary to the free movement provisions, and ‘restriction’ can cover national measures that are not discriminatory.

Plane wave discontinuous Galerkin methods: exponential convergence of the hp-version

We consider the two-dimensional Helmholtz equation with constant coefficients on a domain with piecewise analytic boundary, modelling the scattering of acoustic waves at a sound-soft obstacle. Our discretisation relies on the Trefftz-discontinuous Galerkin approach with plane wave basis functions on meshes with very general element shapes, geometrically graded towards domain corners. We prove exponential convergence of the discrete solution in terms of number of unknowns.

Convergence and accommodation development is pre-programmed in premature infants

Purpose This study investigated whether vergence and accommodation development in pre-term infants is pre-programmed or is driven by experience. Methods 32 healthy infants, born at mean 34 weeks gestation (range 31.2-36 weeks) were compared with 45 healthy full-term infants (mean 40.0 weeks) over a 6 month period, starting at 4-6 weeks post-natally. Simultaneous accommodation and convergence to a detailed target were measured using a Plusoptix PowerRefII infra-red photorefractor as a target moved between 0.33m and 2m. Stimulus/response gains and responses at 0.33m and 2m were compared by both corrected (gestational) age and chronological (post-natal) age. Results When compared by their corrected age, pre-term and full-term infants showed few significant differences in vergence and accommodation responses after 6-7 weeks of age. However, when compared by chronological age, pre-term infants’ responses were more variable, with significantly reduced vergence gains, reduced vergence response at 0.33m, reduced accommodation gain, and increased accommodation at 2m, compared to full-term infants between 8-13 weeks after birth. Conclusions When matched by corrected age, vergence and accommodation in pre-term infants show few differences from full-term infants’ responses. Maturation appears pre-programmed and is not advanced by visual experience. Longer periods of immature visual responses might leave pre-term infants more at risk of development of oculomotor deficits such as strabismus.  

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing.