68 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation, Posterior distribution, Quantile distribution, Response time data


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A multivariate fit to the variation in global mean surface air temperature anomaly over the past half century is presented. The fit procedure allows for the effect of response time on the waveform, amplitude and lag of each radiative forcing input, and each is allowed to have its own time constant. It is shown that the contribution of solar variability to the temperature trend since 1987 is small and downward; the best estimate is -1.3% and the 2sigma confidence level sets the uncertainty range of -0.7 to -1.9%. The result is the same if one quantifies the solar variation using galactic cosmic ray fluxes (for which the analysis can be extended back to 1953) or the most accurate total solar irradiance data composite. The rise in the global mean air surface temperatures is predominantly associated with a linear increase that represents the combined effects of changes in anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases and aerosols, although, in recent decades, there is also a considerable contribution by a relative lack of major volcanic eruptions. The best estimate is that the anthropogenic factors contribute 75% of the rise since 1987, with an uncertainty range (set by the 2sigma confidence level using an AR(1) noise model) of 49–160%; thus, the uncertainty is large, but we can state that at least half of the temperature trend comes from the linear term and that this term could explain the entire rise. The results are consistent with the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) estimates of the changes in radiative forcing (given for 1961–1995) and are here combined with those estimates to find the response times, equilibrium climate sensitivities and pertinent heat capacities (i.e. the depth into the oceans to which a given radiative forcing variation penetrates) of the quasi-periodic (decadal-scale) input forcing variations. As shown by previous studies, the decadal-scale variations do not penetrate as deeply into the oceans as the longer term drifts and have shorter response times. Hence, conclusions about the response to century-scale forcing changes (and hence the associated equilibrium climate sensitivity and the temperature rise commitment) cannot be made from studies of the response to shorter period forcing changes.

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Milk solids yield in modern dairy cows has increased linearly over the last 50 years, stressing the need for maximal dietary energy intake to allow genetic potential for milk energy yield to be realized with minimal negative effects on health and reproduction. Feeding supplemental starch is a common approach for increasing the energy density of the ration and supplying carbon for meeting the substantial glucose requirement of the higher yielding cow. In this regard, it is a long held belief that feeding starch in forms that increase digestion in the small intestine and glucose absorption will benefit the cow in terms of energetic efficiency and production response, but data supporting this dogma are equivocal. This review will consider the impact of supplemental starch and site of starch digestion on metabolic and production responses of lactating dairy cows, including effects on feed intake, milk yield and composition, nutrient partitioning, the capacity of the small intestine for starch digestion, and nutrient absorption and metabolism by the splanchnic tissues (the portal-drained viscera and liver). Whilst there appears to be considerable capacity for starch digestion and glucose absorption in the lactating dairy cow, numerous strategic studies implementing postruminal starch or glucose infusions have observed increases in milk yield, but decreased milk fat concentration such that there is little effect on milk energy yield, even in early lactation. Measurements of energy balance confirm that the majority of the supplemental energy arising from postruminal starch digestion is used with high efficiency to support body adipose and protein retention, even in early lactation. These responses may be mediated by changes in insulin status, and be beneficial to the cow in terms of reproductive success and well-being. However, shifting starch digestion from the rumen impacts the nitrogen economy of the cow as well by shifting the microbial protein gained from starch digestion from potentially absorbable protein to endogenous faecal loss.

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The purpose of this study was to apply and compare two time-domain analysis procedures in the determination of oxygen uptake (VO2) kinetics in response to a pseudorandom binary sequence (PRBS) exercise test. PRBS exercise tests have typically been analysed in the frequency domain. However, the complex interpretation of frequency responses may have limited the application of this procedure in both sporting and clinical contexts, where a single time measurement would facilitate subject comparison. The relative potential of both a mean response time (MRT) and a peak cross-correlation time (PCCT) was investigated. This study was divided into two parts: a test-retest reliability study (part A), in which 10 healthy male subjects completed two identical PRBS exercise tests, and a comparison of the VO2 kinetics of 12 elite endurance runners (ER) and 12 elite sprinters (SR; part B). In part A, 95% limits of agreement were calculated for comparison between MRT and PCCT. The results of part A showed no significant difference between test and retest as assessed by MRT [mean (SD) 42.2 (4.2) s and 43.8 (6.9) s] or by PCCT [21.8 (3.7) s and 22.7 (4.5) s]. Measurement error (%) was lower for MRT in comparison with PCCT (16% and 25%, respectively). In part B of the study, the VO2 kinetics of ER were significantly faster than those of SR, as assessed by MRT [33.4 (3.4) s and 39.9 (7.1) s, respectively; P<0.01] and PCCT [20.9 (3.8) s and 24.8 (4.5) s; P < 0.05]. It is possible that either analysis procedure could provide a single test measurement Of VO2 kinetics; however, the greater reliability of the MRT data suggests that this method has more potential for development in the assessment Of VO2 kinetics by PRBS exercise testing.

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The authors investigated whether heart rate (HR) responses to voluntary recall of trauma memories (a) are related to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and (b) predict recovery 6 months later. Sixty-two assault survivors completed a recall task modeled on imaginal reliving in the initial weeks postassault. Possible cognitive modulators of HR responsivity were assessed; dissociation, rumination, trauma memory disorganization. Individuals with PTSD showed a reduced HR response to reliving compared to those without PTSD, but reported greater distress. Notably, higher HR response but not self-reported distress during reliving predicted greater symptom reduction at follow-up in participants with PTSD. Engagement in rumination was the only cognitive factor that predicted lower HR response. The data are in contrast to studies using trauma reminders to trigger memories, which have found greater physiological reactivity in PTSD. The authors' observations are consistent with models of PTSD that highlight differences between cued or stimulus-driven retrieval and intentional trauma recall, and with E B. Foa and M.J. Kozak (1986) hypothesis that full activation of trauma memories facilitates emotional processing.

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The visuospatial perceptual abilities of individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) were investigated in two experiments. Experiment I measured the ability of participants to discriminate between oblique and between nonoblique orientations. Individuals with WS showed a smaller effect of obliqueness in response time, when compared to controls matched for nonverbal mental age. Experiment 2 investigated the possibility that this deviant pattern of orientation discrimination accounts for the poor ability to perform mental rotation in WS (Farran, Jarrold, & Gathercole, 2001). A size transformation task was employed, which shares the image transformation requirements of mental rotation, but not the orientation discrimination demands. Individuals with WS performed at the same level as controls. The results suggest a deviance at the perceptual level in WS, in processing orientation, which fractionates from the ability to mentally transform images.

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Pullpipelining, a pipeline technique where data is pulled from successor stages from predecessor stages is proposed Control circuits using a synchronous, a semi-synchronous and an asynchronous approach are given. Simulation examples for a DLX generic RISC datapath show that common control pipeline circuit overhead is avoided using the proposal. Applications to linear systolic arrays in cases when computation is finished at early stages in the array are foreseen. This would allow run-time data-driven digital frequency modulation of synchronous pipelined designs. This has applications to implement algorithms exhibiting average-case processing time using a synchronous approach.

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An H-infinity control strategy has been developed for the design of controllers used in feedback controlled electrical substitution measurements (FCESM). The methodology has the potential to provide substantial improvements in both response time and resolution of a millimetre-wave absolute photoacoustic power meter.

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Sirens used by police, fire and paramedic vehicles have been designed so that they can be heard over large distances, but unfortunately the siren noise enters the vehicle and corrupts intelligibility of voice communications from the emergency vehicle to the control room. Often the siren needs to be turned off to enable the control room to hear what is being said. This paper discusses a siren noise filter system that is capable of removing the siren noise picked up by the two-way radio microphone inside the vehicle. The removal of the siren noise improves the response time for emergency vehicles and thus save lives. To date, the system has been trialed within a fire tender in a non-emergency situation, with good results.

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Emergency vehicles use high-amplitude sirens to warn pedestrians and other road users of their presence. Unfortunately, the siren noise enters the vehicle and corrupts the intelligibility of two-way radio voice com-munications from the emergency vehicle to a control room. Often the siren has to be turned off to enable the control room to hear what is being said which subsequently endangers people's lives. A digital signal processing (DSP) based system for the cancellation of siren noise embedded within speech is presented. The system has been tested with the least mean square (LMS), normalised least mean square (NLMS) and affine projection algorithm (APA) using recordings from three common types of sirens (two-tone, wail and yelp) from actual test vehicles. It was found that the APA with a projection order of 2 gives comparably improved cancellation over the LMS and NLMS with only a moderate increase in algorithm complexity and code size. Therefore, this siren noise cancellation system using the APA offers an improvement in cancellation achieved by previous systems. The removal of the siren noise improves the response time for the emergency vehicle and thus the system can contribute to saving lives. The system also allows voice communication to take place even when the siren is on and as such the vehicle offers less risk of danger when moving at high speeds in heavy traffic.

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The goal of this study was to examine behavioral and electrophysiological correlates of involuntary orienting toward rapidly presented angry faces in non-anxious, healthy adults using a dot-probe task in conjunction with high-density event-related potentials and a distributed source localization technique. Consistent with previous studies, participants showed hypervigilance toward angry faces, as indexed by facilitated response time for validly cued probes following angry faces and an enhanced P1 component. An opposite pattern was found for happy faces suggesting that attention was directed toward the relatively more threatening stimuli within the visual field (neutral faces). Source localization of the P1 effect for angry faces indicated increased activity within the anterior cingulate cortex, possibly reflecting conflict experienced during invalidly cued trials. No modulation of the early C1 component was found for affect or spatial attention. Furthermore, the face-sensitive N170 was not modulated by emotional expression. Results suggest that the earliest modulation of spatial attention by face stimuli is manifested in the P1 component, and provide insights about mechanisms underlying attentional orienting toward cues of threat and social disapproval.

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This paper redefines technical efficiency by incorporating provision of environmental goods as one of the outputs of the farm. The proportion of permanent and rough grassland to total agricultural land area is used as a proxy for the provision of environmental goods. Stochastic frontier analysis was conducted using a Bayesian procedure. The methodology is applied to panel data on 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. Results show that farm efficiency rankings change when provision of environmental outputs by farms is incorporated in the efficiency analysis, which may have important political implications.

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The effect of irradiation (UV-visible light) on a nematic liquid crystal doped with a photoactive azobenzene derivative was investigated. The selective irradiation results in either an E implies Z or Z implies E isomerization of the azobenzene unit. The effect of the isomerization is to cause a reversible depression of the liquid crystal to isotropic (LC implies l) phase transition temperature of the doped mixture, which can be monitored optically as an isothermal phase transition. This depression also results in a biphasic liquid crystal+isotropic region which is discussed. The authors investigate the cause and magnitude of the phase depression as a function of the amount of doped 4-butyl-4'-methoxyazobenzene (photoactive unit) in 4-cyano-4'-n-pentylbiphenyl (liquid crystal unit), and as a function of the percentage conversion of E implies Z (caused by isomerization) in the azobenzene. The photostationary state of the doped mixtures achieved by Z implies E isomerization is considered and its effect upon the transition temperature of the mixture and response time of the system is discussed. They discuss the implications of the photostationary state with regards to the reversibility of the photo-induced phase transition and hence potential applications.

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Experimental results of the temperature dependence of the nonlinear optical response of methyl red doped polymethylmethacrylate films in the range 20°C to 170°C are reported. It is found that the intensity of the phase conjugate signal resulting from degenerate four-wave mixing using pump and probe beams with parallel polarisation states increases dramatically on heating by a factor of ∼ 10, reaching a maximum at ∼ 100°C. The intensity of the phase conjugate signal for the case with crossed polarisation states of the pump and probe beams drops monotonically with increasing temperature. For both configurations the response time shortens with increasing temperature. The particular role of the polymer matrix in this temperature variation of the nonlinear optical response is discussed.

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Sirens’ used by police, fire and paramedic vehicles generate noise that propagates inside the vehicle cab that subsequently corrupts intelligibility of voice communications from the emergency vehicle to the control room. It is even common for the siren to be turned off to enable the control room to hear what is being said. Both fixed filter and adaptive filter systems have previously been developed to help cancel the transmission of the siren noise over the radio. Previous cancellation systems have only concentrated on the traditional 2-tone, wail and yelp sirens. This paper discusses an improvement to a previous adaptive filter system and presents the cancellation results to three new types of sirens; being chirp pulsar and localiser. A siren noise filter system has the capability to improve the response time for an emergency vehicle and thus help save lives. To date, this system has been tested using live recordings taken from a nonemergency situation with good results.

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Controllers for feedback substitution schemes demonstrate a trade-off between noise power gain and normalized response time. Using as an example the design of a controller for a radiometric transduction process subjected to arbitrary noise power gain and robustness constraints, a Pareto-front of optimal controller solutions fulfilling a range of time-domain design objectives can be derived. In this work, we consider designs using a loop shaping design procedure (LSDP). The approach uses linear matrix inequalities to specify a range of objectives and a genetic algorithm (GA) to perform a multi-objective optimization for the controller weights (MOGA). A clonal selection algorithm is used to further provide a directed search of the GA towards the Pareto front. We demonstrate that with the proposed methodology, it is possible to design higher order controllers with superior performance in terms of response time, noise power gain and robustness.