An experimental test of response consistency in contingent valuation

We compare hypothetical and observed (experimental) willingness to pay (WTP) for a gradual improvement in the environmental performance of a marketed good (an office table). First, following usual practices in marketing research, subjects’ stated WTP for the improvement is obtained. Second, the same subjects participate in a real reward experiment designed to replicate the scenario valued in the hypothetical question. Our results show that, independently of the degree of the improvement, there are no significant median differences between stated and experimental data. However, subjects reporting extreme values of WTP (low or high) exhibit a more moderate behavior in the experiment.

Thermodynamic and kinetic properties of interpolymer complexes assessed by isothermal titration calorimetry and surface plasmon resonance

Interpolymer complexes (IPCs) formed between complimentary polymers in solution have shown a wide range of applications from drug delivery to biosensors. This work describes the combined use of isothermal titration calorimetry and surface plasmon resonance to investigate the thermodynamic and kinetic processes during hydrogen-bonded interpolymer complexation. Varied polymers that are commonly used in layer-by-layer coatings and pharmaceutical preparations were selected to span a range of chemical functionalities including some known IPCs previously characterized by other techniques, and other polymer combinations with unknown outcomes. This work is the first to comprehensively detail the thermodynamic and kinetic data of hydrogen bonded IPCs, aiding understanding and detailed characterization of the complexes. The applicability of the two techniques in determining thermodynamic, gravimetric and kinetic properties of IPCs is considered.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Inferring the structure of the solar corona and inner heliosphere during the Maunder minimum using global thermodynamic magnetohydrodynamic simulations

Observations of the Sun’s corona during the space era have led to a picture of relatively constant, but cyclically varying solar output and structure. Longer-term, more indirect measurements, such as from 10Be, coupled by other albeit less reliable contemporaneous reports, however, suggest periods of significant departure from this standard. The Maunder Minimum was one such epoch where: (1) sunspots effectively disappeared for long intervals during a 70 yr period; (2) eclipse observations suggested the distinct lack of a visible K-corona but possible appearance of the F-corona; (3) reports of aurora were notably reduced; and (4) cosmic ray intensities at Earth were inferred to be substantially higher. Using a global thermodynamic MHD model, we have constructed a range of possible coronal configurations for the Maunder Minimum period and compared their predictions with these limited observational constraints. We conclude that the most likely state of the corona during—at least—the later portion of the Maunder Minimum was not merely that of the 2008/2009 solar minimum, as has been suggested recently, but rather a state devoid of any large-scale structure, driven by a photospheric field composed of only ephemeral regions, and likely substantially reduced in strength. Moreover, we suggest that the Sun evolved from a 2008/2009-like configuration at the start of the Maunder Minimum toward an ephemeral-only configuration by the end of it, supporting a prediction that we may be on the cusp of a new grand solar minimum.

The impact of a thermodynamic sea-ice module in the COSMO numerical weather prediction model on simulations for the Laptev Sea, Siberian Arctic

Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14-30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.