The future returns for property required by UK pension funds: the BHS data

Previous studies of the place of Property in the multi-asset portfolio have generally relied on historical data, and have been concerned with the supposed risk reduction effects that Property would have on such portfolios. In this paper a different approach has been taken. Not only are expectations data used, but we have also concentrated upon the required return that Property would have to offer to achieve a holding of 15% in typical UK pension fund portfolios. Using two benchmark portfolios for pension funds, we have shown that Property's required return is less than that expected, and therefore it could justify a 15% holding.

Required returns for real estate in UK pension fund portfolios

The position of Real Estate within a multi-asset portfolio has received considerable attention recently. Previous research has concentrated on the percentage holding property would achieve given its risk/return characteristics. Such studies have invariably used Modern Portfolio Theory and these approaches have been criticised for both the quality of the real estate data and problems with the methodology itself. The first problem is now well understood, and the second can be addressed by the use of realistic constraints on asset holdings. This paper takes a different approach. We determine the level of return that Real Estate needs to achieve to justify an allocation within the multi asset portfolio. In order to test the importance of the quality of the data we use historic appraisal based and desmoothed returns to examine the sensitivity of the results. Consideration is also given to the Holding period and the imposition of realistic constraints on the asset holdings in order to model portfolios held by pension fund investors. We conclude, using several benchmark levels of portfolio risk and return, that using appraisal based data the required level of return for Real Estate was less than that achieved over the period 1972-1993. The use of desmoothed series can reverse this result at the highest levels of desmoothing although within a restricted holding period Real Estate offered returns in excess of those required to enter the portfolio and might have a role to play in the multi-asset portfolio.

Smoothed histogram modification for image processing

The technique of constructing a transformation, or regrading, of a discrete data set such that the histogram of the transformed data matches a given reference histogram is commonly known as histogram modification. The technique is widely used for image enhancement and normalization. A method which has been previously derived for producing such a regrading is shown to be “best” in the sense that it minimizes the error between the cumulative histogram of the transformed data and that of the given reference function, over all single-valued, monotone, discrete transformations of the data. Techniques for smoothed regrading, which provide a means of balancing the error in matching a given reference histogram against the information lost with respect to a linear transformation are also examined. The smoothed regradings are shown to optimize certain cost functionals. Numerical algorithms for generating the smoothed regradings, which are simple and efficient to implement, are described, and practical applications to the processing of LANDSAT image data are discussed.

Modification of enrofloxacin treatment regimens for poultry experimentally infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 to minimize selection of resistance

We hypothesized that higher doses of fluoroquinolones for a shorter duration could maintain efficacy (as measured by reduction in bacterial count) while reducing selection in chickens of bacteria with reduced susceptibility. Chicks were infected with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium DT104 and treated 1 week later with enrofloxacin at the recommended dose for 5 days (water dose adjusted to give 10 mg/kg of body weight of birds or equivalence, i.e., water at 50 ppm) or at 2.5 or 5 times the recommended dose for 2 days or 1 day, respectively. The dose was delivered continuously (ppm) or pulsed in the water (mg/kg) or by gavage (mg/kg). In vitro in sera, increasing concentrations of 0.5 to 8 mu g/ml enrofloxacin correlated with increased activity. In vivo, the efficacy of the 1-day treatment was significantly less than that of the 2- and 5-day treatments. The 2-day treatments showed efficacy similar to that of the 5-day treatment in all but one repeat treatment group and significantly (P < 0.01) reduced the Salmonella counts. Dosing at 2.5x the recommended dose and pulsed dosing both increased the peak antibiotic concentrations in cecal contents, liver, lung, and sera as determined by high-pressure liquid chromatography. There was limited evidence that shorter treatment regimens (in particular the 1-day regimen) selected for fewer strains with reduced susceptibility. In conclusion, the 2-day treatment would overall require a shorter withholding time than the 5-day treatment and, in view of the increased peak antibiotic concentrations, may give rise to improved efficacy, in particular for treating respiratory and systemic infections. However, it would be necessary to validate the 2-day regimen in a field situation and in particular against respiratory and systemic infections to validate or refute this hypothesis.

Biased interpretation in perfectionism and its modification

Perfectionism is a transdiagnostic construct associated with a range of diagnoses, including depression, eating disorders and obsessive compulsive disorder. Treatments that directly target perfectionist cognitions have been shown to successfully reduce associated pathologies. However, the way in which they do this is not clear. We set out to assess the role of one candidate mechanism of action, namely the cognitive process of interpretation of ambiguity. In one experiment we looked for associations between biased interpretation and perfectionism. In a second, we manipulated interpretations, thereby providing a strong test of their aetiological significance. Results from the first experiment confirmed the presence of biased interpretation in perfectionism and demonstrated that these are highly specific to perfection relevant information, rather than reflecting general negativity. The second experiment succeeded in manipulating these perfection relevant interpretations and demonstrated that one consequence of doing so is a change in perfectionist behaviour. Together, these data experimentally demonstrate that biased interpretation of perfection relevant ambiguity contributes to the maintenance of perfectionism, but that it is also possible to reverse this. Clinical implications include the identification of one likely mechanism of therapeutic change within existing treatments, as well as identification of an appropriate evidence based focus for future treatment development. Targeting underlying functional mechanisms, such as biased interpretation, has the potential to offer transdiagnostic benefits.

On the (un)-ambiguity of adjectival modification in Spanish determiner phrases: informing debates on the mental representations of L2 syntax.

This study contributes to a central debate within contemporary generative second language (L2) theorizing: the extent to which adult learners are (un)able to acquire new functional features that result in a L2 grammar that is mentally structured like the native target (see White, 2003). The adult acquisition of L2 nominal phi-features is explored, with focus on the syntactic and semantic reflexes in the related domain of adjective placement in two experimental groups: English-speaking intermediate (n = 21) and advanced (n = 24) learners of Spanish, as compared to a native-speaker control group (n = 15). Results show that, on some of the tasks, the intermediate L2 learners appear to have acquired the syntactic properties of the Spanish determiner phrase but, on other tasks, to show some delay with the semantic reflexes of prenominal and postnominal adjectives. Crucially, however, our data demonstrate full convergence by all advanced learners and thus provide evidence in contra the predictions of representational deficit accounts (e.g., Hawkins & Chan, 1997; Hawkins & Franceschina, 2004; Hawkins & Hattori, 2006).

Observing the in situ chiral modification of Ni nanoparticles using scanning transmission X-ray microspectroscopy

Enantioselective heterogeneous hydrogenation of Cdouble bond; length as m-dashO bonds is of great potential importance in the synthesis of chirally pure products for the pharmaceutical and fine chemical industries. One of the most widely studied examples of such a reaction is the hydrogenation of β-ketoesters and β-diketoesters over Ni-based catalysts in the presence of a chiral modifier. Here we use scanning transmission X-ray microscopy combined with near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (STXM/NEXAFS) to investigate the adsorption of the chiral modifier, namely (R,R)-tartaric acid, onto individual nickel nanoparticles. The C K-edge spectra strongly suggest that tartaric acid deposited onto the nanoparticle surfaces from aqueous solutions undergoes a keto-enol tautomerisation. Furthermore, we are able to interrogate the Ni L2,3-edge resonances of individual metal nanoparticles which, combined with X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed them to consist of a pure nickel phase rather than the more thermodynamically stable bulk nickel oxide. Importantly, there appears to be no “particle size effect” on the adsorption mode of the tartaric acid in the particle size range ~ 90–~ 300 nm.

Asset liability modelling and pension schemes: the application of robust optimization to USS

This paper uses a novel numerical optimization technique - robust optimization - that is well suited to solving the asset-liability management (ALM) problem for pension schemes. It requires the estimation of fewer stochastic parameters, reduces estimation risk and adopts a prudent approach to asset allocation. This study is the first to apply it to a real-world pension scheme, and the first ALM model of a pension scheme to maximise the Sharpe ratio. We disaggregate pension liabilities into three components - active members, deferred members and pensioners, and transform the optimal asset allocation into the scheme’s projected contribution rate. The robust optimization model is extended to include liabilities and used to derive optimal investment policies for the Universities Superannuation Scheme (USS), benchmarked against the Sharpe and Tint, Bayes-Stein, and Black-Litterman models as well as the actual USS investment decisions. Over a 144 month out-of-sample period robust optimization is superior to the four benchmarks across 20 performance criteria, and has a remarkably stable asset allocation – essentially fix-mix. These conclusions are supported by six robustness checks.

Enhanced effects of combined cognitive bias modification and computerised cognitive behaviour therapy on social anxiety

This study examines whether combined cognitive bias modification for interpretative biases (CBM-I) and computerised cognitive behaviour therapy (C-CBT) can produce enhanced positive effects on interpretation biases and social anxiety. Forty socially anxious students were randomly assigned into two conditions, an intervention group (positive CBM-I + C-CBT) or an active control (neutral CBM-I + C-CBT). At pre-test, participants completed measures of social anxiety, interpretative bias, cognitive distortions, and social and work adjustment. They were exposed to 6 × 30 min sessions of web-based interventions including three sessions of either positive or neutral CBM-I and three sessions of C-CBT, one session per day. At post-test and two-week follow-up, participants completed the baseline measures. A combined positive CBM-I + C-CBT produced less negative interpretations of ambiguous situations than neutral CBM-I + C-CBT. The results also showed that both positive CBM-I + C-CBT and neutral CBM-I + C-CBT reduced social anxiety and cognitive distortions as well as improving work and social adjustment. However, greater effect sizes were observed in the positive CBM-I + C-CBT condition than the control. This indicates that adding positive CBM-I to C-CBT enhanced the training effects on social anxiety, cognitive distortions, and social and work adjustment compared to the neutral CBM-I + C-CBT condition.

Is cognitive bias modification training truly beneficial for adolescents?

Background Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM) has been shown to change interpretation biases commonly associated with anxiety and depression and may help ameliorate symptoms of these disorders. However, its evidence base for adolescents is scarce. Previous results have been hard to interpret because of methodological issues. In particular, many studies have used negative bias training as the control condition. This would tend to inflate any apparent benefits of CBM compared to a neutral control. Most studies also only examined the effects of a single training session and lacked follow-up assessment or ecologically valid outcome measures. Method Seventy-four adolescents, aged 16–18 years, were randomised to two sessions of CBM training or neutral control. Interpretation bias and mood were assessed three times: at baseline, immediately post-training and 1 week post-training. A controlled experimental stressor was also used, and responses to everyday stressors were recorded for 1 week after training to assess responses to psychological challenges. Feedback for the training programme was collected. Results The CBM group reported a greater reduction in negative affect than control participants. However, other hypothesised advantages of CBM were not demonstrated. Regardless of training group, participants reported increased positive interpretations, decreased negative interpretations, reduced depressive symptoms and no change in trait anxiety. The two groups did not differ in their stress reactivity. After controlling for group differences in training performance, all the mood effects disappeared. Conclusions When tested under stringent experimental conditions the effects of CBM in healthy adolescents appear to be minimal. Future studies should concentrate on participants with elevated cognitive biases and/or mood symptoms who may be more sensitive to CBM.