The key role of the western boundary in linking the AMOC strength to the north-south pressure gradient

A key idea in the study of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is that its strength is proportional to the meridional density gradient, or more precisely, to the strength of the meridional pressure gradient. A physical basis that would tell us how to estimate the relevant meridional pressure gradient locally from the density distribution in numerical ocean models to test such an idea, has been lacking however. Recently, studies of ocean energetics have suggested that the AMOC is driven by the release of available potential energy (APE) into kinetic energy (KE), and that such a conversion takes place primarily in the deep western boundary currents. In this paper, we develop an analytical description linking the western boundary current circulation below the interface separating the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) to the shape of this interface. The simple analytical model also shows how available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy at each location, and that the strength of the transport within the western boundary current is proportional to the local meridional pressure gradient at low latitudes. The present results suggest, therefore, that the conversion rate of potential energy may provide the necessary physical basis for linking the strength of the AMOC to the meridional pressure gradient, and that this could be achieved by a detailed study of the APE to KE conversion in the western boundary current.

Real options and game theoretical approaches to real estate development projects: multiple equilibria and the implications of different tie-breaking rules

This paper contributes to a fast growing literature which introduces game theory in the analysis of real option investments in a competitive setting. Specifically, in this paper we focus on the issue of multiple equilibria and on the implications that different equilibrium selections may have for the pricing of real options and for subsequent strategic decisions. We present some theoretical results of the necessary conditions to have multiple equilibria and we show under which conditions different tie-breaking rules result in different economic decisions. We then present a numerical exercise using the in formation set obtained on a real estate development in South London. We find that risk aversion reduces option value and this reduction decreases marginally as negative externalities decrease.

From symmetry breaking to Poisson Point Process in 2D Voronoi Tessellations: the generic nature of hexagons

We bridge the properties of the regular triangular, square, and hexagonal honeycomb Voronoi tessellations of the plane to the Poisson-Voronoi case, thus analyzing in a common framework symmetry breaking processes and the approach to uniform random distributions of tessellation-generating points. We resort to ensemble simulations of tessellations generated by points whose regular positions are perturbed through a Gaussian noise, whose variance is given by the parameter α2 times the square of the inverse of the average density of points. We analyze the number of sides, the area, and the perimeter of the Voronoi cells. For all valuesα >0, hexagons constitute the most common class of cells, and 2-parameter gamma distributions provide an efficient description of the statistical properties of the analyzed geometrical characteristics. The introduction of noise destroys the triangular and square tessellations, which are structurally unstable, as their topological properties are discontinuous in α = 0. On the contrary, the honeycomb hexagonal tessellation is topologically stable and, experimentally, all Voronoi cells are hexagonal for small but finite noise withα <0.12. For all tessellations and for small values of α, we observe a linear dependence on α of the ensemble mean of the standard deviation of the area and perimeter of the cells. Already for a moderate amount of Gaussian noise (α >0.5), memory of the specific initial unperturbed state is lost, because the statistical properties of the three perturbed regular tessellations are indistinguishable. When α >2, results converge to those of Poisson-Voronoi tessellations. The geometrical properties of n-sided cells change with α until the Poisson- Voronoi limit is reached for α > 2; in this limit the Desch law for perimeters is shown to be not valid and a square root dependence on n is established. This law allows for an easy link to the Lewis law for areas and agrees with exact asymptotic results. Finally, for α >1, the ensemble mean of the cells area and perimeter restricted to the hexagonal cells agree remarkably well with the full ensemble mean; this reinforces the idea that hexagons, beyond their ubiquitous numerical prominence, can be interpreted as typical polygons in 2D Voronoi tessellations.

Symmetry-break in Voronoi tessellations

We analyse in a common framework the properties of the Voronoi tessellations resulting from regular 2D and 3D crystals and those of tessellations generated by Poisson distributions of points, thus joining on symmetry breaking processes and the approach to uniform random distributions of seeds. We perturb crystalline structures in 2D and 3D with a spatial Gaussian noise whose adimensional strength is α and analyse the statistical properties of the cells of the resulting Voronoi tessellations using an ensemble approach. In 2D we consider triangular, square and hexagonal regular lattices, resulting into hexagonal, square and triangular tessellations, respectively. In 3D we consider the simple cubic (SC), body-centred cubic (BCC), and face-centred cubic (FCC) crystals, whose corresponding Voronoi cells are the cube, the truncated octahedron, and the rhombic dodecahedron, respectively. In 2D, for all values α>0, hexagons constitute the most common class of cells. Noise destroys the triangular and square tessellations, which are structurally unstable, as their topological properties are discontinuous in α=0. On the contrary, the honeycomb hexagonal tessellation is topologically stable and, experimentally, all Voronoi cells are hexagonal for small but finite noise with α<0.12. Basically, the same happens in the 3D case, where only the tessellation of the BCC crystal is topologically stable even against noise of small but finite intensity. In both 2D and 3D cases, already for a moderate amount of Gaussian noise (α>0.5), memory of the specific initial unperturbed state is lost, because the statistical properties of the three perturbed regular tessellations are indistinguishable. When α>2, results converge to those of Poisson-Voronoi tessellations. In 2D, while the isoperimetric ratio increases with noise for the perturbed hexagonal tessellation, for the perturbed triangular and square tessellations it is optimised for specific value of noise intensity. The same applies in 3D, where noise degrades the isoperimetric ratio for perturbed FCC and BCC lattices, whereas the opposite holds for perturbed SCC lattices. This allows for formulating a weaker form of the Kelvin conjecture. By analysing jointly the statistical properties of the area and of the volume of the cells, we discover that also the cells shape heavily fluctuates when noise is introduced in the system. In 2D, the geometrical properties of n-sided cells change with α until the Poisson-Voronoi limit is reached for α>2; in this limit the Desch law for perimeters is shown to be not valid and a square root dependence on n is established, which agrees with exact asymptotic results. Anomalous scaling relations are observed between the perimeter and the area in the 2D and between the areas and the volumes of the cells in 3D: except for the hexagonal (2D) and FCC structure (3D), this applies also for infinitesimal noise. In the Poisson-Voronoi limit, the anomalous exponent is about 0.17 in both the 2D and 3D case. A positive anomaly in the scaling indicates that large cells preferentially feature large isoperimetric quotients. As the number of faces is strongly correlated with the sphericity (cells with more faces are bulkier), in 3D it is shown that the anomalous scaling is heavily reduced when we perform power law fits separately on cells with a specific number of faces.

High-strength, healable, supramolecular polymer nanocomposites

A supramolecular polymer blend, formed via π-π interactions between a π-electron rich pyrenyl endcapped oligomer and a chain-folding oligomer containing pairs of π-electron poor naphthalene-diimide (NDI) units, has been reinforced with cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) to afford a healable nanocomposite material. Nanocomposites with varying weight percentage of CNCs (from 1.25 to 20.0 wt.%) within the healable supramolecular polymeric matrix have been prepared via solvent casting followed by compression molding, and their mechanical properties and healing behavior have been evaluated. It is found that homogeneously dispersed films can be formed with CNCs at less than 10 wt.%. Above 10 wt.% CNC heterogeneous nanocomposites were obtained. All the nanocomposites formed could be re-healed upon exposure to elevated temperatures although, for the homogeneous films, it was found that the healing rate was reduced with increasing CNC content. The best combination of healing efficiency and mechanical properties was obtained with the 7.5 wt.% CNC nanocomposite which exhibited a tensile modulus enhanced by as much as a factor of 20 over the matrix material alone and could be fully re-healed at 85 °C within 30 minutes. Thus it is demonstrated that supramolecular nanocomposites can afford greatly enhanced mechanical properties relative to the unreinforced polymer, while still allowing efficient thermal healing.

Linear criteria for gravity-wave breaking in resonant stratified flow over a ridge

Using linear theory, it is shown that, in resonant flow over a 2D mountain ridge, such as exists when a layer of uniform wind is topped by an environmental critical level, the conditions for internal gravity-wave breaking are different from those determined in previous studies for non-resonant flows. For Richardson numbers in the shear layer not exceeding 2.25, two zones of flow overturning exist, respectively below and downstream and above and upstream of the expected locations. Flow overturning occurs for values of the dimensionless height of the ridge smaller than those required for a uniform wind profile. These results may have implications for the physical understanding of high-drag states.

Wave-breaking characteristics of midlatitude blocking

In this article, Northern Hemisphere winter midlatitude blocking is analysed through its wave-breaking characteristics. Rossby wave breaking is identified as a key process in blocking occurrence, as it provides the mechanism for the meridional reversal pattern typical of blocking. Two indices are designed to detect the major properties of wave breaking, i.e. the orientation (cyclonic/anticyclonic–direction of breaking or DB index) and the relative contribution of air masses (warm/cold–relative intensity or RI index). The use of the DB index differentiates between the anticyclonic cases over Europe and Asia and the cyclonic events over the oceanic basins. One of the three regions displaying cyclonic type was found over the Atlantic Ocean, the other two being over the Pacific Ocean. The first of these is located over the western side of the Pacific and is dominated by warm air extrusions, whereas the second is placed northward of the exit region of the jet stream, where the meridional θ gradient is much weaker. Two European blocking types have been detected using the RI index, which separates out the cases dominated by warm and cold air masses. The latter cases in particular exhibited a well-structured dipole, with associated strong anomalies in both temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking

Climate models consistently predict a strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change. Although the predicted circulation changes are clearly the result of changes in stratospheric wave drag, the mechanism behind the wave-drag changes remains unclear. Here, simulations from a chemistry–climate model are analyzed to show that the changes in resolved wave drag are largely explainable in terms of a simple and robust dynamical mechanism, namely changes in the location of critical layers within the subtropical lower stratosphere, which are known from observations to control the spatial distribution of Rossby wave breaking. In particular, the strengthening of the upper flanks of the subtropical jets that is robustly expected from GHG-induced tropospheric warming pushes the critical layers (and the associated regions of wave drag) upward, allowing more wave activity to penetrate into the subtropical lower stratosphere. Because the subtropics represent the critical region for wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, the circulation is thereby strengthened. Transient planetary-scale waves and synoptic-scale waves generated by baroclinic instability are both found to play a crucial role in this process. Changes in stationary planetary wave drag are not so important because they largely occur away from subtropical latitudes.

Wave-breaking characteristics of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking: a two-dimensional approach

This paper generalises and applies recently developed blocking diagnostics in a two- dimensional latitude-longitude context, which takes into consideration both mid- and high-latitude blocking. These diagnostics identify characteristics of the associated wave-breaking as seen in the potential temperature (θ) on the dynamical tropopause, in particular the cyclonic or anticyclonic Direction of wave-Breaking (DB index), and the Relative Intensity (RI index) of the air masses that contribute to blocking formation. The methodology is extended to a 2-D domain and a cluster technique is deployed to classify mid- and high-latitude blocking according to the wave-breaking characteristics. Mid-latitude blocking is observed over Europe and Asia, where the meridional gradient of θ is generally weak, whereas high-latitude blocking is mainly present over the oceans, to the north of the jet-stream, where the meridional gradient of θ is much stronger. They occur respectively on the equatorward and poleward flank of the jet- stream, where the horizontal shear ∂u/∂y is positive in the first case and negative in the second case. A regional analysis is also conducted. It is found that cold-anticyclonic and cyclonic blocking divert the storm-track respectively to the south and to the north over the East Atlantic and western Europe. Furthermore, warm-cyclonic blocking over the Pacific and cold-anticyclonic blocking over Europe are identified as the most persistent types and are associated with large amplitude anomalies in temperature and precipitation. Finally, the high-latitude, cyclonic events seem to correlate well with low- frequency modes of variability over the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean.

Rossby wave-breaking analysis of explosive cyclones in the Euro-Atlantic sector

The two-way relationship between Rossby Wave-Breaking (RWB) and intensification of extra tropical cyclones is analysed over the Euro-Atlantic sector. In particular, the timing, intensity and location of cyclone development are related to RWB occurrences. For this purpose, two potential-temperature based indices are used to detect and classify anticyclonic and cyclonic RWB episodes from ERA-40 Re-Analysis data. Results show that explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic (NA) is fostered by enhanced occurrence of RWB on days prior to the cyclone’s maximum intensification. Under such conditions, the eddy-driven jet stream is accelerated over the NA, thus enhancing conditions for cyclogenesis. For explosive cyclogenesis over the eastern NA, enhanced cyclonic RWB over eastern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over the sub-tropical NA are observed. Typically only one of these is present in any given case, with the RWB over eastern Greenland being more frequent than its southern counterpart. This leads to an intensification of the jet over the eastern NA and enhanced probability of windstorms reaching Western Europe. Explosive cyclones evolving under simultaneous RWB on both sides of the jet feature a higher mean intensity and deepening rates than cyclones preceded by a single RWB event. Explosive developments over the western NA are typically linked to a single area of enhanced cyclonic RWB over western Greenland. Here, the eddy-driven jet is accelerated over the western NA. Enhanced occurrence of cyclonic RWB over southern Greenland and anticyclonic RWB over Europe is also observed after explosive cyclogenesis, potentially leading to the onset of Scandinavian Blocking. However, only very intense developments have a considerable influence on the large-scale atmospheric flow. Non-explosive cyclones depict no sign of enhanced RWB over the whole NA area. We conclude that the links between RWB and cyclogenesis over the Euro-Atlantic sector are sensitive to the cyclone’s maximum intensity, deepening rate and location.

Breaking the impasse: towards a new regime for international climate governance

The reality of the current international order makes it imperative that a just and effective climate regime balance the historical responsibility of developed countries with the increasing absolute emissions from many developing nations. In this short outlook article, key pillars are proposed for a new international climate architecture that envisions replacing the current annex system with two new annexes –Annex α, for countries with high current emissions and historically high emissions, and Annex β, for countries with high current emissions and historically low emissions. Countries in both annexes would implement legally binding targets under this framework. Additionally, this proposal includes tweaks and revisions to funding and technology transfer mechanisms to correct for weaknesses and inequities under the current Kyoto architecture. The proposed framework stems from a belief that a top-down, international approach to climate policy remains the most effective for ensuring environmental integrity. Given the slow rate of institutional learning, reforming and improving the current system is held as a more efficient course of action than abandoning the progress already achieved. It is argued that the proposed framework effectively accommodates key equity, environmental integrity and political feasibility concerns.

The consolidation and bond strength of rafted sea ice

The consolidation and bond strength of rafted sea ice were investigated through a series of experiments undertaken in the Ice Physics Laboratory at the UCL. To simulate a section of rafted sea ice, blocks of laboratory grown saline ice were stacked in an insulated tank with spacers between adjacent blocks to allow saline water to flood in. The rate of consolidation was then monitored using a combination of temperature readings recorded in the ice and liquid layer, salinity measurements of the liquid layer, and cores taken at specific times of interest. Two states of consolidation were observed: thermodynamic consolidation where the ice blocks were physically bonded but the bond strength was weak, and mechanical consolidation where the bond had reached full strength. Results showed that the rafted ice had physically bonded in less than a day, however it took many more days (6 to 30 depending on the environmental conditions) for the bond to reach maximum strength. Increasing the thickness of the ice, the salinity of the water and the inter-block gap size all increased the consolidation time. Once consolidated, ice cores were taken and sheared using the asymmetric four-point bending method to measure the strength of the bond between the ice blocks. These were then compared to the shear strength of solid ice blocks simulating level sea ice. Our results show that the shear strength of the bond between the rafted ice blocks is about 30% weaker than that of level ice.

Assessment of the relative reinforcing strength of cocaine in socially housed monkeys using a choice procedure.

Position in the social hierarchy can influence brain dopamine function and cocaine reinforcement in nonhuman primates during early cocaine exposure. With prolonged exposure, however, initial differences in rates of cocaine self-administration between dominant and subordinate monkeys dissipate. The present studies used a choice procedure to assess the relative reinforcing strength of cocaine in group-housed male cynomolgus monkeys with extensive cocaine self-administration histories. Responding was maintained under a concurrent fixed-ratio 50 schedule of food and cocaine (0.003-0.1 mg/kg per injection) presentation. Responding on the cocaine-associated lever increased as a function of cocaine dose in all monkeys. Although response distribution was similar across social rank when saline or relatively low or high cocaine doses were the alternative to food, planned t tests indicated that cocaine choice was significantly greater in subordinate monkeys when choice was between an intermediate dose (0.01 mg/kg) and food. When a between-session progressive-ratio procedure was used to increase response requirements for the preferred reinforcer (either cocaine or food), choice of that reinforcer decreased in all monkeys. The average response requirement that produced a shift in response allocation from the cocaine-associated lever to the food-associated lever was higher in subordinates across cocaine doses, an effect that trended toward significance (p = 0.053). These data indicate that despite an extensive history of cocaine self-administration, most subordinate monkeys were more sensitive to the relative reinforcing strength of cocaine than dominant monkeys.