Fingerprints of changes in annual and seasonal precipitation from CMIP5 models over land and ocean

By comparing annual and seasonal changes in precipitation over land and ocean since 1950 simulated by the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) climate models in which natural and anthropogenic forcings have been included, we find that clear global-scale and regional-scale changes due to human influence are expected to have occurred over both land and ocean. These include moistening over northern high latitude land and ocean throughout all seasons and over the northern subtropical oceans during boreal winter. However we show that this signal of human influence is less distinct when considered over the relatively small area of land for which there are adequate observations to make assessments of multi-decadal scale trends. These results imply that extensive and significant changes in precipitation over the land and ocean may have already happened, even though, inadequacies in observations in some parts of the world make it difficult to identify conclusively such a human fingerprint on the global water cycle. In some regions and seasons, due to aliasing of different kinds of variability as a result of sub sampling by the sparse and changing observational coverage, observed trends appear to have been increased, underscoring the difficulties of interpreting the apparent magnitude of observed changes in precipitation.

The use of risk registers by project managers

The construction industry is widely recognised as being inherent with risk and uncertainty. This necessitates the need for effective project risk management to achieve the project objectives of time, cost and quality. A popular tool employed in projects to aid in the management of risk is a risk register. This tool documents the project risks and is often employed by the Project Manager (PM) to manage the associated risks on a project. This research aims to ascertain how widely risk registers are used by Project Managers as part of their risk management practices. To achieve this aim entailed interviewing ten PMs, to discuss their use of the risk register as a risk management tool. The results from these interviews indicated the prevalent use of this document and recognised its effectiveness in the management of project risks. The findings identified the front end and feasibility phases of a project as crucial stages for using risk registers, noting it as a vital ingredient in the risk response planning of the decision making process. Moreover, the composition of the risk register was also understood, with an insight into how PMs produce and develop this tool also ascertained. In conclusion, this research signifies the extensive use of the risk register by PMs. A majority of PMs were of the view that risk registers constitute an essential component of their project risk management practices. This suggests a need for further research on the extent to which risk registers actually help PMs to control the risks in a construction project, particularly residual risks, and how this can be improved to minimize deviations from expected outcomes.

The effectiveness of botanic garden collections in supporting plant conservation: a European case study

Europe has the greatest concentration of botanic gardens in the world, they cultivate extensive collections of plants that include samples of European threatened plant species. This study looks at the effectiveness of these collections in supporting species conservation. A three part study is presented: (1) the results of a survey and assessment of threatened plants in botanic gardens, as defined by the Bern Convention; (2) case studies illustrating current issues in the ex situ management of European threatened plant species; and (3) presentation of policy recommendations on further improving botanic garden contributions to European plant conservation. The survey indicated that of 119 European botanic gardens in 29 European countries, 105 are cultivating 308 of the 573 threatened plant species listed by the Bern Convention. The survey identified 25 botanic gardens in 14 countries undertaking 51 conservation projects focused on 27 Bern listed species. In particular this survey has established that the majority of taxa are held in a small number of collections, dominated by non-wild origin accessions, and are not adequately documented. The majority of specimens in botanic gardens are cultivated out of the range country and not contributing to a specific conservation project. We review the genetic representation and documentation of origin in collections. Existing plant collections contain representatives of populations, now lost in the wild and maintain samples of at least nine European plant taxa identified as 'Extinct in the Wild'. However, inadequate standards of record keeping has compromised the conservation value of many collections. We highlight the dangers of hybridisation and disease in ex situ collections. The results suggest that botanic garden collections are skewed towards horticulturally robust and ornamental species and do not fully reflect priorities as defined by the Bern Convention. Recognising the limitations of traditional botanic garden collections we propose that botanic gardens more effectively utilise their two core competencies, namely scientific horticulture and public display and interpretation. The unique horticultural skills resident in European botanic gardens could be more effectively utilised through the application of horticulture to the management of wild populations.

An unusual axial–axial combination of alternating cyclic rings in the chair conformations of hexameric water and chlorine-water clusters

An alternating hexameric water (H2O)(6) cluster and a chlorine-water cluster [Cl-2(H2O)(4)](2-) in the chair forms combine axially to each other to form a 1D chain [{Cl-2(H2O)(6)}(2-)](n) in complex [FeL2]Cl center dot(H2O)(3) (L=2-[(2-methylaminoethylimino)-methyl]-phenol)]. The water molecules display extensive H-bonding interactions with monomeric iron-organic units to form a hydrogen-bonded 2D supramolecular assembly.

Mesolithic to Neolithic and medieval coastal environmental change: intertidal survey at Woolaston, Gloucestershire

At Woolaston on the western shores of the middle Severn Estuary c. 7 km upstream of Chepstow intertidal Holocene sediment exposures have been surveyed and the stratigraphic sequence established by coring and limited excavation. There are two main peats each with a submerged forest. An existing dendrochronological sequence for the Upper Submerged Forest has been extended and the preliminary results of pollen analysis from the peat sequence are summarised. A few flint flakes were found but were not stratified in the mid-Holocene sequence. There is evidence for late Mesolithic / early Neolithic burning episodes which may relate to human activity. Evidence is reported for Medieval activity and the extensive modification of drainage in this period is suggested.

Reading Clausewitz

The main ideas of Clausewitz and how they were taken up, discussed, or rejected in the following centuries.

Striving for inclusive design in the built environment: learning strategy adopted by policy implementers at local authorities in England

The research will explore views on inclusive design policy implementation and learning strategy used in practice by Local Authorities’ planning, building control and policy departments in England. It reports emerging research findings. The research aim was developed from an extensive literature review, and informed by a pilot study with relevant Local Authority departments. The pilot study highlighted gaps within the process of policy implementation, a lack of awareness of the process and flaws in the design guidance policy. This has helped inform the development of a robust research design using both a survey and semi-structured interviews. The questionnaire targeted key employees within Local Authorities designed to establish how employees learn about inclusive design policy and to determine their views on current approaches of inclusive design policy implementation adopted by their Local Authorities. The questionnaire produces 117 responses. Interestingly approximately 9 out of 129 Local Authorities approached claimed that they were unable to participate either because an inclusive design policy was not adopted or they were faced with a high workload and thus unable to take part. An emerging finding is a lack of understanding of inclusive design problems, which may lead to problem with inclusive design policy implementation, and thus adversely affect how the built environment can be experienced. There is a strong indication from the survey respondents indicating that they are most likely to learn about inclusive design from policy guides produced by their Local Authorities and from their colleagues.

Fenced in: Common property struggles in the management of communal rangelands in central Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

This paper takes as its starting point the assertion that current rangeland management in the central Eastern Cape Province (former Ciskei) of South Africa, is characterised primarily by an ‘open access’ approach. Empirical material drawn from three case-study communities in the region is used to examine the main barriers to management of rangeland as a ‘commons’. The general inability to define and enforce rights to particular grazing resourses in the face of competing claims from ‘outsiders’, as well as inadequate local institutions responsible for rangeland management are highlighted as being of key importance. These are often exacerbated by lack of available grazing land, diffuse user groups and local political and ethnic divisions. Many of these problems have a strong legacy in historical apartheid policies such as forced resettlement and betterment planning. On this basis it is argued that policy should focus on facilitating the emergence of effective, local institutions for rangeland management. Given the limited grazing available to many communities in the region, a critical aspect of this will be finding ways to legitimise current patterns of extensive resource use, which traverse existing ‘community’ boundaries. However, this runs counter to recent legislation, which strongly links community management with legal ownership of land within strict boundaries often defined through fencing. Finding ways to overcome this apparent disjuncture between theory and policy will be vital for the effective management of common pool grazing resources in the region.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Reading is now 'cool': a study of English teachers' perspectives on e-reading devices as a challenge and an opportunity

E-reading devices such as The Kindle have rapidly secured a significant place in a number of societies as at least one major platform for reading. To some extent they are part of the overarching move towards a fully digitised world but they have a distinctiveness in being deliberately “book-like”. Teachers generally have some suspicion towards “New Media”, especially when it challenges their established practice and nothing dominates the school more than the physical book. What may be the challenges but also the benefits of e-readers to teachers and students? What may be the particular challenges to those teachers who are, traditionally, the guardians of the book, that is the teachers of mother tongue literature? This article reports on a survey of English teachers in England to gauge their reactions to e-readers, both personally and professionally and describes their speculations about the place of e-readers in schools in the future. There is a mixed reaction with some teachers concerned about the demise of the book and the potential negative impact on reading. However, the majority welcome e-readers as a dynamic element within the reading environment with particular potential to enthuse reluctant readers and those with special or linguistic needs. They also, some grudgingly, view the fact that reading using this form of technology appeals to the “e-generation” and may succeed in making reading “cool”. This form of technology is, ironically (given that it appears to threaten traditional books) likely to be rapidly adopted in classrooms.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000- fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Keywords: haldanes, biological time, scaling, pedomorphosis

Risk assessment of UK skylark populations using life-history and individual-based landscape models

Abstract: Following a workshop exercise, two models, an individual-based landscape model (IBLM) and a non-spatial life-history model were used to assess the impact of a fictitious insecticide on populations of skylarks in the UK. The chosen population endpoints were abundance, population growth rate, and the chances of population persistence. Both models used the same life-history descriptors and toxicity profiles as the basis for their parameter inputs. The models differed in that exposure was a pre-determined parameter in the life-history model, but an emergent property of the IBLM, and the IBLM required a landscape structure as an input. The model outputs were qualitatively similar between the two models. Under conditions dominated by winter wheat, both models predicted a population decline that was worsened by the use of the insecticide. Under broader habitat conditions, population declines were only predicted for the scenarios where the insecticide was added. Inputs to the models are very different, with the IBLM requiring a large volume of data in order to achieve the flexibility of being able to integrate a range of environmental and behavioural factors. The life-history model has very few explicit data inputs, but some of these relied on extensive prior modelling needing additional data as described in Roelofs et al.(2005, this volume). Both models have strengths and weaknesses; hence the ideal approach is that of combining the use of both simple and comprehensive modeling tools.

Surviving Objects

Surviving Objects (2012) is a devised multi-media practice-as-research performance based on extensive interviews conducted with my elderly mother and recorded on a hand-held device. Our conversations concern her experiences as a child refugee following violent deportation by the Soviet Army from Eastern Poland to Siberia (1941), and her subsequent route, via Persia, to a British-run refugee camp in Northern Rhodesia, where she remained for 6 years before arriving in the UK. In order to aid my mother’s reflections, our recorded conversations focus on the objects remaining from that period in her life – my ‘inheritance’. The material presence of this handful of objects is central to the ninety-minute performance. Surviving Objects constitutes my attempt to locate a theatrical form through which to root/re-route this engagement with my mother’s marginalised voice. The end-on performance haptically navigates themes of intimacy and failing memory – navigates, indeed, my constantly shifting relationship with my mother. It searches for new cross-medial pathways along which her experience, and my experience of her, can play-out. Surviving Objects involves: 1. live performance (two silent female actors handling/presenting my mother’s objects); 2. Film (two synchronously-playing, large-scale projections exploring the objects by means of a highly-magnifying macro lens); 3. Pre-recorded sound (my mother’s voice, taken from our recorded interviews, which were conducted in Polish, with my own verbal contribution meticulously editorially excised from those conversations); 4. My translation of her stories (appearing periodically as written text that ‘overlays’ - rather than sub- or surtitles - the projected imagery).

Student teachers’ perceptions of reading and the teaching of reading: the implications for teacher education

This article reports on research which identified perceptions of reading and the teaching of reading held by trainee teachers and the impact on my provision as a teacher educator. It found that students’ past and present experiences of learning to read and being a reader influenced their perceptions of what reading is and of what it means to teach reading. As a teacher educator, I am not able to give students long experience of seeing children becoming readers, but I am able to give them richer experiences of reading in personally and culturally relevant contexts. This has implications for the nature of subject knowledge required by a student teacher of reading and the curriculum and practice of teacher education.

The effects of word exposure frequency and elaboration of word processing on incidental L2 vocabulary acquisition through reading

Research on incidental second language (L2) vocabulary acquisition through reading has claimed that repeated encounters with unfamiliar words and the relative elaboration of processing these words facilitate word learning. However, so far both variables have been investigated in isolation. To help close this research gap, the current study investigates the differential effects of the variables ‘word exposure frequency’ and ‘elaboration of word processing’ on the initial word learning and subsequent word retention of advanced learners of L2 English. Whereas results showed equal effects for both variables on initial word learning, subsequent word retention was more contingent on elaborate processing of form–meaning relationships than on word frequency. These results, together with those of the studies reviewed, suggest that processing words again after reading (input–output cycles) is superior to reading-only tasks. The findings have significant implications for adaptation and development of teaching materials that enhance L2 vocabulary learning.