Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere. II: Annual and interannual variability

The annual and interannual variability of idealized, linear, equatorial waves in the lower stratosphere is investigated using the temperature and velocity fields from the ECMWF 15-year re-analysis dataset. Peak Kelvin wave activity occurs during solstice seasons at 100 hPa, during December-February at 70 hPa and in the easterly to westerly quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phase transition at 50 hPa. Peak Rossby-gravity wave activity occurs during equinox seasons at 100 hPa, during June-August/September-November at 70 hPa and in the westerly to easterly QBO phase transition at 50 hPa. Although neglect of wind shear means that the results for inertio-gravity waves are likely to be less accurate, they are still qualitatively reasonable and an annual cycle is observed in these waves at 100 hPa and 70 hPa. Inertio-gravity waves with n = 1 are correlated with the QBO at 50 hPa, but the eastward inertio-gravity n = 0 wave is not, due to its very fast vertical group velocity in all background winds. The relative importance of different wave types in driving the QBO at 50 hPa is also discussed. The strongest acceleration appears to be provided by the Kelvin wave while the acceleration provided by the Rossby-gravity wave is negligible. Of the higher-frequency waves, the westward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave appears able to contribute more to the acceleration of the 50 hPa mean zonal wind than the eastward inertio-gravity n = 1 wave.

Space physics for graduate students: an activities-based approach

The geospace environment is controlled largely by events on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, which generate significant geomagnetic and upper atmospheric disturbances. The study of this Sun-Earth system, which has become known as space weather, has both intrinsic scientific interest and practical applications. Adverse conditions in space can damage satellites and disrupt communications, navigation, and electric power grids, as well as endanger astronauts. The Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM), a Science and Technology Center (STC) funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (see http://www.bu.edu/cism/), is developing a suite of integrated physics-based computer models that describe the space environment from the Sun to the Earth for use in both research and operations [Hughes and Hudson, 2004, p. 1241]. To further this mission, advanced education and training programs sponsored by CISM encourage students to view space weather as a system that encompasses the Sun, the solar wind, the magnetosphere, and the ionosphere/thermosphere. This holds especially true for participants in the CISM space weather summer school [Simpson, 2004].

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

A shift to randomness of brain oscillations in people with autism

BACKGROUND: Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables investigation of the intrinsic functional organization of the brain. Fractal parameters such as the Hurst exponent, H, describe the complexity of endogenous low-frequency fMRI time series on a continuum from random (H = .5) to ordered (H = 1). Shifts in fractal scaling of physiological time series have been associated with neurological and cardiac conditions. METHODS: Resting-state fMRI time series were recorded in 30 male adults with an autism spectrum condition (ASC) and 33 age- and IQ-matched male volunteers. The Hurst exponent was estimated in the wavelet domain and between-group differences were investigated at global and voxel level and in regions known to be involved in autism. RESULTS: Complex fractal scaling of fMRI time series was found in both groups but globally there was a significant shift to randomness in the ASC (mean H = .758, SD = .045) compared with neurotypical volunteers (mean H = .788, SD = .047). Between-group differences in H, which was always reduced in the ASC group, were seen in most regions previously reported to be involved in autism, including cortical midline structures, medial temporal structures, lateral temporal and parietal structures, insula, amygdala, basal ganglia, thalamus, and inferior frontal gyrus. Severity of autistic symptoms was negatively correlated with H in retrosplenial and right anterior insular cortex. CONCLUSIONS: Autism is associated with a small but significant shift to randomness of endogenous brain oscillations. Complexity measures may provide physiological indicators for autism as they have done for other medical conditions.

Inequality and GM crops: a case study of Bt cotton in India

Critics of genetically modified (GM) crops often contend that their introduction enhances the gap between rich and poor farmers, as the former group are in the best position to afford the expensive seed as well as provide other inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation. The research reported in this paper explores this issue with regard to Bt cotton (cotton with the endotoxtin gene from Bacillus thuringiensis conferring resistance to some insect pests) in Jalgaon, Maharashtra State, India, spanning the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Questionnaire–based survey results from 63 non–adopting and 94 adopting households of Bt cotton were analyzed, spanning 137 Bt cotton plots and 95 non–Bt cotton plots of both Bt adopters and non–adopters. For these households, cotton income accounted for 85 to 88% of total household income, and is thus of vital importance. Results suggest that in 2003 Bt adopting households have significantly more income from cotton than do non–adopting households (Rp 66,872 versus Rp 46,351) but inequality in cotton income, measured with the Gini coefficient (G), was greater amongst non–adopters than adopters. While Bt adopters had greater acreage of cotton in 2003 (9.92 acres versus 7.42 for non–adopters), the respective values of G were comparable. The main reason for the lessening of inequality amongst adopters would appear to be the consistency in the performance of Bt cotton along with the preferred non–Bt cultivar of Bt adopters—Bunny. Taking gross margin as the basis for comparison, Bt plots had 2.5 times the gross margin of non–Bt plots of non–adopters, while the advantage of Bt plots over non–Bt plots of adopters was 1.6 times. Measured in terms of the Gini coefficient of gross margin/acre it was apparent that inequality was lessened with the adoption of Bunny (G = 0.47) and Bt (G = 0.3) relative to all other non–Bt plots (G = 0.63). Hence the issue of equality needs to be seen both in terms of differences between adopters and non–adopters as well as within each of the groups.

Behavioral changes associated with a population density decline in the facultatively social red fox

Understanding the causal mechanisms promoting group formation in carnivores has been widely investigated, particularly how fitness components affect group formation. Population density may affect the relative benefits of natal philopatry versus dispersal. Density effects on individual behavioral strategies have previously been studied through comparisons of different populations, where differences could be confounded by between-site effects. We used a single population of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in the city of Bristol, UK, that underwent a natural perturbation in density to compare key changes in 1) group structure, 2) within-group relatedness, 3) mating system, 4) dispersal, and 5) dominance attainment. At high densities (19.6-27.6 adults km(-2)), group sex ratios were equal and included related and unrelated individuals. At low densities (4.0-5.5 adults km(-2)), groups became female biased and were structured around philopatric females. However, levels of within-group relatedness were unchanged. The genetic mating patterns changed with no instances of multiple-paternity litters and a decline in the frequency of extrapair litters of cubs from <= 77% to <= 38%. However, the number of genetically monogynous groups did not differ between periods. Dispersal was male biased at both high and low densities. At high density, most dominant males in the study groups appeared to have gained dominance after dispersing, but natal philopatry was an equally successful strategy at low density; conversely, most dominant females were philopatric individuals at both high and low densities. These results illustrate how density may alter behavioral strategies such as mating patterns and how this, in turn, alters group structure in a single population.

Synthesis and crystal structure of the thiophene-3-acetonitrile complex fac-[Mo(CO)(3){NCCH2(C4H3S-3)}(3)]

Reaction of fac-[ Mo( CO)(3)( NCMe)(3)] with three equivalents of NCCH2(C4H3S- 3) in acetonitrile gives the tris(thiophene- 3- acetonitrile) complex, fac-[Mo(CO)(3){NCCH2(C4H3S-3)}(3)] (1) in 7% yield. Complex 1 crystallizes out in the orthorhombic space group Pnma with a = 12.714( 17), b = 16.41( 2), c = 11.304(16) Angstrom, Z = 4. The structure has crystallographic m symmetry and the metal is in an almost perfect octahedral environment, with a facial arrangement of carbonyl and thiophene- 3- acetonitrile groups. The thiophene rings are disordered.

Crystal and molecular structure of the thioether-analogue of PEEK from X-ray powder data and diffraction-modelling

Analysis of X-ray powder data for the melt-crystallisable aromatic poly(thioether thioether ketone) [-S-Ar-S-Ar-CO-Ar](n), ('PTTK', Ar= 1,4-phenylene), reveals that it adopts a crystal structure very different from that established for its ether-analogue PEEK. Molecular modelling and diffraction-simulation studies of PTTK show that the structure of this polymer is analogous to that of melt-crystallised poly(thioetherketone) [-SAr-CO-Ar](n) in which the carbonyl linkages in symmetry-related chains are aligned anti-parallel to one another. and that these bridging units are crystallographically interchangeable. The final model for the crystal structure of PTTK is thus disordered, in the monoclinic space group 121a (two chains per unit cell), with cell dimensions a = 7.83, b = 6.06, c = 10.35 angstrom, beta = 93.47 degrees. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure determination, magnetic and optical properties of a new chromium(II) thioantimonate, [Cr((NH2CH2CH2)(3)N)]Sb4S7

The chromium(II) antimony(III) sulphicle, [Cr((NH2CH2CH2)(3)N)]Sb4S7, was synthesised under solvothermal conditions from the reaction of Sb2S3. Cr and S dissolved in tris(2-aminoethyl)amine (tren) at 438 K. The products were characterised by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. elemental analysis, SQUID magnetometry and diffuse reflectance spectroscopy. The compound crystallises in the monoclinic space group P2(1)/n with a = 7.9756(7), b = 10.5191(9), c = 25.880(2) angstrom and beta = 90.864(5)degrees. Alternating SbS33- trigonal pyramids and Sb36 semi-cubes generate Sb4S72- chains which are directly bonded to Cr(tren pendant units. The effective magnetic moment of 4.94(6)mu(B) shows a negligible orbital contribution, in agreement with expectations for Cr(II):d(4) in a (5)A ground state. The measured band gap of 2.14(3) eV is consistent with a correlation between optical band gap and framework density that is established from analysis of a wide range of antimony sulphides. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple general method of generating non-oxo, non-amavadine model octacoordinated vanadium(IV) complexes of some tetradentate ONNO chelating ligands from various oxovanadium(IV/V) compounds and structural characterization of one of them

A simple general route of obtaining very stable octacoordinated non-oxovanadium( IV) complexes of the general formula VL2 (where H2L is a tetradentate ONNO donor) is presented. Six such complexes (1-6) are adequately characterized by elemental analysis, mass spectrometry, and various spectroscopic techniques. One of these compounds (1) has been structurally characterized. The molecule has crystallographic 4 symmetry and has a dodecahedral structure existing in a tetragonal space group P4n2. The non-oxo character and VL2 stoichiometry for all of the complexes are established from analytical and mass spectrometric data. In addition, the non-oxo character is clearly indicated by the complete absence of the strong nu(v=o) band in the 925-1025 cm(-1) region, which is a signature of all oxovanadium species. The complexes are quite stable in open air in the solid state and in solution, a phenomenon rarely observed in non-oxovanadium(IV) or bare vanadium(IV) complexes.

'Does this compromise your design?' Interactionally producing a design concept in talk

How a design concept was interactionally produced in the talk-in-interaction between an architect and client representatives was studied. The empirical analysis was informed by ethnomethodology and conversation analysis to observe structures and patterns of talk that accomplished actions and practices of design. Some differences were observed between the properties of the design concept in comparison with the design ideas that were considered during these conversations. The design concept was observed to be significant for assessing why some moves in a design space were considered better than others. The importance of the design concept to these interactions raised more general questions about what a design concept is and how it can be described as an object type. With reference to studies of science, technology and society these concerns were provisionally engaged with and further study of the object properties of design concepts is suggested.

Lack of effect of dietary n-6 : n-3 PUFA ratio on plasma lipids and markers of insulin responses in Indian Asians living in the UK

Background: Indian Asians living in Western Countries have an over 50% increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) relative to their Caucasians counterparts. The atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP), which is more prevalent in this ethnic group, may in part explain the increased risk. A low dietary long chain n-3 fatty acid (LC n-3 PUFA) intake and a high dietary n-6 PUFA intake and n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio in Indian Asians have been proposed as contributors to the increased ALP incidence and CHD risk in this subgroup. Aim: To examine the impact of dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio on membrane fatty acid composition, blood lipid levels and markers of insulin sensitivity in Indian Asians living in the UK. Methods: Twenty-nine males were assigned to either a moderate or high n-6:n-3 PUFA (9 or 16) diet for 6 weeks. Fasting blood samples were collected at baseline and 6 weeks for analysis of triglycerides, total-, LDL- and HDL- cholesterol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin, markers of insulin sensitivity and C-reactive protein. Results: Group mean saturated fatty acid, MUFA, n-6 PUFA and n-3 PUFA on the moderate and high n-6:n-3 PUFA diets were 26 g/d, 43 g/d, 15 g/d, 2 g/d and 25 g/d, 25 g/d, 28 g/d, 2 g/d respectively. A significantly lower total membrane n-3 PUFA and a trend towards lower EPA and DHA levels were observed following the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet. However no significant effect of treatment on plasma lipids was evident. There was a trend towards a loss of insulin sensitivity on the high n-6:n-3 PUFA diet, with the increase in fasting insulin (P = 0.04) and HOMA IR [(insulin x glucose)/22.5] (P = 0.02) reaching significance. Conclusion: The results of the current study suggest that, within the context of a western diet, it is unlikely that dietary n-6:n-3 PUFA ratio has any major impact on the levels of LC n-3 PUFA in membrane phospholipids or have any major clinically relevant impact on insulin sensitivity and its associated dyslipidaemia.

Selective increases of bifidobacteria in gut microflora improve high-fat-diet-induced diabetes in mice through a mechanism associated with endotoxaemia

Aims/hypothesis Recent evidence suggests that a particular gut microbial community may favour occurrence of the metabolic diseases. Recently, we reported that high-fat (HF) feeding was associated with higher endotoxaemia and lower Bifidobacterium species (spp.) caecal content in mice. We therefore tested whether restoration of the quantity of caecal Bifidobacterium spp. could modulate metabolic endotoxaemia, the inflammatory tone and the development of diabetes. Methods Since bifidobacteria have been reported to reduce intestinal endotoxin levels and improve mucosal barrier function, we specifically increased the gut bifidobacterial content of HF-diet-fed mice through the use of a prebiotic (oligofructose [OFS]). Results Compared with normal chow-fed control mice, HF feeding significantly reduced intestinal Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria including levels of bifidobacteria, a dominant member of the intestinal microbiota, which is seen as physiologically positive. As expected, HF-OFS-fed mice had totally restored quantities of bifidobacteria. HF-feeding significantly increased endotoxaemia, which was normalised to control levels in HF-OFS-treated mice. Multiple-correlation analyses showed that endotoxaemia significantly and negatively correlated with Bifidobacterium spp., but no relationship was seen between endotoxaemia and any other bacterial group. Finally, in HF-OFS-treated-mice, Bifidobacterium spp. significantly and positively correlated with improved glucose tolerance, glucose-induced insulin secretion and normalised inflammatory tone (decreased endotoxaemia, plasma and adipose tissue proinflammatory cytokines). Conclusions/interpretation Together, these findings suggest that the gut microbiota contribute towards the pathophysiological regulation of endotoxaemia and set the tone of inflammation for occurrence of diabetes and/or obesity. Thus, it would be useful to develop specific strategies for modifying gut microbiota in favour of bifidobacteria to prevent the deleterious effect of HF-diet-induced metabolic diseases.