Impact of variable atmospheric and oceanic form drag on simulations of Arctic sea ice

Over Arctic sea ice, pressure ridges and floe andmelt pond edges all introduce discrete obstructions to the flow of air or water past the ice and are a source of form drag. In current climate models form drag is only accounted for by tuning the air–ice and ice–ocean drag coefficients, that is, by effectively altering the roughness length in a surface drag parameterization. The existing approach of the skin drag parameter tuning is poorly constrained by observations and fails to describe correctly the physics associated with the air–ice and ocean–ice drag. Here, the authors combine recent theoretical developments to deduce the total neutral form drag coefficients from properties of the ice cover such as ice concentration, vertical extent and area of the ridges, freeboard and floe draft, and the size of floes and melt ponds. The drag coefficients are incorporated into the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) and show the influence of the new drag parameterization on the motion and state of the ice cover, with the most noticeable being a depletion of sea ice over the west boundary of the Arctic Ocean and over the Beaufort Sea. The new parameterization allows the drag coefficients to be coupled to the sea ice state and therefore to evolve spatially and temporally. It is found that the range of values predicted for the drag coefficients agree with the range of values measured in several regions of the Arctic. Finally, the implications of the new form drag formulation for the spinup or spindown of the Arctic Ocean are discussed.

Meta-morphs: – being a mediator of the ‘thin’ place and ‘thin’ experience in the HE classroom. A paper on the experience of creating transformations in HE teaching and learning

The research which underpins this paper began as a doctoral project exploring archaic beliefs concerning Otherworlds and Thin Places in two particular landscapes - the West Coast of Wales and the West Coast of Ireland. A Thin Place is an ancient Celtic Christian term used to describe a marginal, liminal realm, beyond everyday human experience and perception, where mortals could pass into the Otherworld more readily, or make contact with those in the Otherworld more willingly. To encounter a Thin Place in ancient folklore was significant because it engendered a state of alertness, an awakening to what the theologian John O’ Donohue (2004: 49) called “the primal affection.” These complex notions and terms will be further explored in this paper in relation to Education. Thin Teaching is a pedagogical approach which offers students the space to ruminate on the possibility that their existence can be more and can mean more than the categories they believed they belonged to or felt they should inhabit. Central to the argument then, is that certain places and their inhabitants can become revitalised by sensitively considered teaching methodologies. This raises interesting questions about the role spirituality plays in teaching practice as a tool for healing in the twenty first century.

The dependence of high-latitude dayside ionospheric flows on the North-South component of the IMF: A high time resolution correlation analysis using EISCAT “Polar” and AMPTE UKS and IRM data

In 1984 and 1985 a series of experiments was undertaken in which dayside ionospheric flows were measured by the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, while observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) were made by the AMPTE UKS and IRM spacecraft upstream from the Earth's bow shock. As a result, 40 h of simultaneous data were acquired, which are analysed in this paper to investigate the relationship between the ionospheric flow and the North-South (Bz) component of the IMF. The ionospheric flow data have 2.5 min resolution, and cover the dayside local time sector from ∼ 09:30 to ∼ 18:30 M.L.T. and the latitude range from 70.8° to 74.3°. Using cross-correlation analysis it is shown that clear relationships do exist between the ionospheric flow and IMF Bz, but that the form of the relations depends strongly on latitude and local time. These dependencies are readily interpreted in terms of a twinvortex flow pattern in which the magnitude and latitudinal extent of the flows become successively larger as Bz becomes successively more negative. Detailed maps of the flow are derived for a range of Bz values (between ± 4 nT) which clearly demonstrate the presence of these effects in the data. The data also suggest that the morning reversal in the East-West component of flow moves to earlier local times as Bz, declines in value and becomes negative. The correlation analysis also provides information on the ionospheric response time to changes in IMF Bz, it being found that the response is very rapid indeed. The most rapid response occurs in the noon to mid-afternoon sector, where the westward flows of the dusk cell respond with a delay of 3.9 ± 2.2 min to changes in the North-South field at the subsolar magnetopause. The flows appear to evolve in form over the subsequent ~ 5 min interval, however, as indicated by the longer response times found for the northward component of flow in this sector (6.7 ±2.2 min), and in data from earlier and later local times. No evidence is found for a latitudinal gradient in response time; changes in flow take place coherently in time across the entire radar field-of-view.

Recent progress in understanding and projecting regional and global mean sea-level change

Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5’s assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003–2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993–2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likely range, indicating that there is a greater probability that sea level rise by 2100 will lie in this range with a corresponding decrease in the likelihood of an additional contribution of several tens of centimeters above the likely range. In view of the comparatively limited state of knowledge and understanding of rapid ice sheet dynamics, we continue to think that it is not yet possible to make reliable quantitative estimates of future GMSL rise outside the likely range. Projections of twenty-first century GMSL rise published since the AR5 depend on results from expert elicitation, but we have low confidence in conclusions based on these approaches. New work on regional projections and emergence of the anthropogenic signal suggests that the two commonly predicted features of future regional sea level change (the increasing tilt across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the dipole in the North Atlantic) are related to regional changes in wind stress and surface heat flux. Moreover, it is expected that sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing, particularly in regions of relatively low unforced variability such as the low-latitude Atlantic, will be detectable over most of the ocean by 2040. The east-west contrast of sea level trends in the Pacific observed since the early 1990s cannot be satisfactorily accounted for by climate models, nor yet definitively attributed either to unforced variability or forced climate change.

The virtual world of exercises and deterrence

Miliary Exercises, Command Post Exercises and War Games serve to test procedures, but in some forms also serve to signal ability to defend against aggression, or to intimidate neighbours with the threat of aggression. Some indicators suggest that the solidarity of NATO and the EU is decreasing, and with it a plausible nuclear deterrence posture. This article discusses whether recent exercises and TV war games make matters better or worse.

Post-Sustainable Development

The past 15 years have witnessed the rise of post-development theory as a means of understanding the development discourse since the 1940s. Post-development argues that intentional development (as distinct from immanent development - what people are doing anyway) is a construct of Western hegemony. Sustainable development, they argue, is no different and indeed is perhaps worse, given that most of the global environmental degradation has been driven by consumerism and industrialization in the West. Critics of post-development counter by stating that it only provides destruction by tearing apart what is currently practiced in 'development' without providing an alternative. When post-developmentalists do offer an alternative it typically amouints to little more than a call for more grassroots involvement in development and disengagement from a Western agenda. Post-sustainable development analysis and counter-analysis has received remarkably little attention within the sustainable development literature, yet this paper argues that it can make a positive contributrion by calling for an analysis of discourse rather than a hiding of power differentials and an assumption that consensus must exist within a community. A case is made for a post-sustainable development that acknowledges that diversity will exist and consensus may not be achievable, but at the same time participation can help with learning. The role of the expert within sustainable development is also discussed. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

Exploring carrier agents in swarm-array computing

How can a bridge be built between autonomic computing approaches and parallel computing systems? The work reported in this paper is motivated towards bridging this gap by proposing a swarm-array computing approach based on ‘Intelligent Agents’ to achieve autonomy for distributed parallel computing systems. In the proposed approach, a task to be executed on parallel computing cores is carried onto a computing core by carrier agents that can seamlessly transfer between processing cores in the event of a predicted failure. The cognitive capabilities of the carrier agents on a parallel processing core serves in achieving the self-ware objectives of autonomic computing, hence applying autonomic computing concepts for the benefit of parallel computing systems. The feasibility of the proposed approach is validated by simulation studies using a multi-agent simulator on an FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array) and experimental studies using MPI (Message Passing Interface) on a computer cluster. Preliminary results confirm that applying autonomic computing principles to parallel computing systems is beneficial.

A child’s burial in unconsecrated ground in early modern Dorchester

Re-examination of a child burial found during excavations in advance of the construction of new offices for Dorset County Council in the north-west quarter of Dorchester in 1937 indicates that it is of early modern, rather than of Roman date, as originally believed at the time of excavation. A possible context is explored for the burial of a child in unconsecrated ground in the 17th century.

Capital market expectations and the London office market

The analysis of office market dynamics has generally concentrated on the impact of underlying fundamental demand and supply variables. This paper takes a slightly different approach to many previous examinations of rental dynamics. Within a Vector-Error-Correction framework the empirical analysis concentrates upon the impact of economic and financial variables on rents in the City of London and West End of London office markets. The impulse response and variance decomposition reveal that while lagged rental values and key demand drivers play a highly important role in the dynamics of rents, financial variables are also influential. Stock market performance not only influences the City of London market but also the West End, whilst the default spread plays an important role in recent years. It is argued that both series incorporate expectations about future economic performance and that this is the basis of their influence upon rental values.

High resolution Northern Hemisphere wintertime mid-latitude dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

Hourly winter weather of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is simulated using the Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3) on a globally resolved T170 (75 km) grid. Results are compared to a longer LGM climatological run with the same boundary conditions and monthly saves. Hourly-scale animations are used to enhance interpretations. The purpose of the study is to explore whether additional insights into ice age conditions can be gleaned by going beyond the standard employment of monthly average model statistics to infer ice age weather and climate. Results for both LGM runs indicate a decrease in North Atlantic and increase in North Pacific cyclogenesis. Storm trajectories react to the mechanical forcing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, with Pacific storms tracking over middle Alaska and northern Canada, terminating in the Labrador Sea. This result is coincident with other model results in also showing a significant reduction in Greenland wintertime precipitation – a response supported by ice core evidence. Higher-temporal resolution puts in sharper focus the close tracking of Pacific storms along the west coast of North America. This response is consistent with increased poleward heat transport in the LGM climatological run and could help explain “early” glacial warming inferred in this region from proxy climate records. Additional analyses shows a large increase in central Asian surface gustiness that support observational inferences that upper-level winds associated with Asian- Pacific storms transported Asian dust to Greenland during the LGM.

Do phytoplankton communities evolve through a self-regulatory abundance-diversity relationship?

A small group of phytoplankton species that produce toxic or allelopathic chemicals has a significant effect on plankton dynamics in marine ecosystems. The species of non-toxic phytoplankton, which are large in number, are affected by the toxin-allelopathy of those species. By analysis of the abundance data of marine phytoplankton collected from the North-West coast of the Bay of Bengal, an empirical relationship between the abundance of the potential toxin-producing species and the species diversity of the non-toxic phytoplankton is formulated. A change-point analysis demonstrates that the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton increases with the increase of toxic species up to a certain level. However, for a massive increase of the toxin-producing species the diversity of phytoplankton at species level reduces gradually. Following the results, a deterministic relationship between the abundance of toxic phytoplankton and the diversity of non-toxic phytoplankton is developed. The abundance–diversity relationship develops a unimodal pathway through which the abundance of toxic species regulates the diversity of phytoplankton. These results contribute to the current understanding of the coexistence and biodiversity of phytoplankton, the top-down vs. bottom-up debate, and to that of abundance–diversity relationship in marine ecosystems.

Near-earth cosmic ray decreases associated with remote coronal mass ejections

Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux is modulated by both particle drift patterns and solar wind structures on a range of timescales. Over solar cycles, GCR flux varies as a function of the total open solar magnetic flux and the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet. Over hours, drops of a few percent in near-Earth GCR flux (Forbush decreases, FDs) are well known to be associated with the near-Earth passage of solar wind structures resulting from corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and transient coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We report on four FDs seen at ground-based neutron monitors which cannot be immediately associated with significant structures in the local solar wind. Similarly, there are significant near-Earth structures which do not produce any corresponding GCR variation. Three of the FDs are during the STEREO era, enabling in situ and remote observations from three well-separated heliospheric locations. Extremely large CMEs passed the STEREO-A spacecraft, which was behind the West limb of the Sun, approximately 2–3 days before each near- Earth FD. Solar wind simulations suggest that the CMEs combined with pre-existing CIRs, enhancing the pre-existing barriers to GCR propagation. Thus these observations provide strong evidence for the modulation of GCR flux by remote solar wind structures.

Otherworlds: fantasy and history in medieval literature

This book offers a new perspective on the otherworlds of medieval literature. These fantastical realms are among the most memorable places in medieval writing, by turns beautiful and monstrous, alluring and terrifying. Passing over a river or sea, or entering into a hollow hill, heroes come upon strange and magical realms. These places are often very beautiful, filled with sweet music and adorned with precious stones and rich materials. There is often no darkness, time may pass at a different pace, and the people who dwell there are usually supernatural. Sometimes such a place is exactly what it appears to be-the land of heart's desire-but, the otherworld can also have a sinister side, trapping humans and keeping them there against their will. Otherworlds: Fantasy and History in Medieval Literature takes a fresh look at how medieval writers understood these places and why they found them so compelling. It focuses on texts from England, but places this material in the broader context of literary production in medieval Britain and Ireland. The narratives examined in this book tell a rather surprising story about medieval notions of these fantastical places. Otherworlds are actually a lot less 'other' than they might initially seem. Authors often use the idea of the otherworld to comment on very serious topics. It is not unusual for otherworld depictions to address political issues in the historical world. Most intriguing of all are those texts where locations in the real world are re-imagined as otherworlds. The regions on which this book focuses, Britain, Ireland and the surrounding islands, prove particularly susceptible to this characterization.