An analysis of long-term trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics in water quality data from Plynlimon, Wales

This paper examines two hydrochemical time-series derived from stream samples taken in the Upper Hafren catchment, Plynlimon, Wales. One time-series comprises data collected at 7-hour intervals over 22 months (Neal et al., submitted, this issue), while the other is based on weekly sampling over 20 years. A subset of determinands: aluminium, calcium, chloride, conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, iron, nitrate, pH, silicon and sulphate are examined within a framework of non-stationary time-series analysis to identify determinand trends, seasonality and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that both long-term and high-frequency monitoring provide valuable and unique insights into the hydrochemistry of a catchment. The long-term data allowed analysis of long-termtrends, demonstrating continued increases in DOC concentrations accompanied by declining SO4 concentrations within the stream, and provided new insights into the changing amplitude and phase of the seasonality of the determinands such as DOC and Al. Additionally, these data proved invaluable for placing the short-term variability demonstrated within the high-frequency data within context. The 7-hour data highlighted complex diurnal cycles for NO3, Ca and Fe with cycles displaying changes in phase and amplitude on a seasonal basis. The high-frequency data also demonstrated the need to consider the impact that the time of sample collection can have on the summary statistics of the data and also that sampling during the hours of darkness provides additional hydrochemical information for determinands which exhibit pronounced diurnal variability. Moving forward, this research demonstrates the need for both long-term and high-frequency monitoring to facilitate a full and accurate understanding of catchment hydrochemical dynamics.

Moving the nanoscience and technology (NST) debate forwards: short-term impacts, long-term uncertainty and the social constitution

Nanoscience and technology (NST) are widely cited to be the defining technology for the 21st century. In recent years, the debate surrounding NST has become increasingly public, with much of this interest stemming from two radically opposing long-term visions of a NST-enabled future: ‘nano-optimism’ and ‘nano-pessimism’. This paper demonstrates that NST is a complex and wide-ranging discipline, the future of which is characterised by uncertainty. It argues that consideration of the present-day issues surrounding NST is essential if the public debate is to move forwards. In particular, the social constitution of an emerging technology is crucial if any meaningful discussion surrounding costs and benefits is to be realised. An exploration of the social constitution of NST raises a number of issues, of which unintended consequences and the interests of those who own and control new technologies are highlighted.

A novel alternative to cryopreservation for the short-term storage of stem cells for use in cell therapy using alginate encapsulation

Efficient transport of stem/progenitor cells without affecting their survival and function is a key factor in any practical cell-based therapy. However, the current approach using liquid nitrogen for the transfer of stem cells requires a short delivery time window is technically challenging and financially expensive. The present study aims to use semipermeable alginate hydrogels (crosslinked by strontium) to encapsulate, store, and release stem cells, to replace the conventional cryopreservation method for the transport of therapeutic cells within world-wide distribution time frame. Human mesenchymal stem cell (hMSC) and mouse embryonic stem cells (mESCs) were successfully stored inside alginate hydrogels for 5 days under ambient conditions in an air-tight environment (sealed cryovial). Cell viability, of the cells extracted from alginate gel, gave 74% (mESC) and 80% (hMSC) survival rates, which compared favorably to cryopreservation. More importantly, the subsequent proliferation rate and detection of common stem cell markers (both in mRNA and protein level) from hMSCs and mESCs retrieved from alginate hydrogels were also comparable to (if not better than) results gained following cryopreservation. In conclusion, this new and simple application of alginate hydrogel encapsulation may offer a cheap and robust alternative to cryopreservation for the transport and storage of stem cells for both clinical and research purposes.

The neural bases of the short-term storage of verbal information are anatomically variable across individuals

What are the precise brain regions supporting the short-term retention of verbal information? A previous functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study suggested that they may be topographically variable across individuals, occurring, in most, in regions posterior to prefrontal cortex (PFC), and that detection of these regions may be best suited to a single-subject (SS) approach to fMRI analysis (Feredoes and Postle, 2007). In contrast, other studies using spatially normalized group-averaged (SNGA) analyses have localized storage-related activity to PFC. To evaluate the necessity of the regions identified by these two methods, we applied repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) to SS- and SNGA-identified regions throughout the retention period of a delayed letter-recognition task. Results indicated that rTMS targeting SS analysis-identified regions of left perisylvian and sensorimotor cortex impaired performance, whereas rTMS targeting the SNGA-identified region of left caudal PFC had no effect on performance. Our results support the view that the short-term retention of verbal information can be supported by regions associated with acoustic, lexical, phonological, and speech-based representation of information. They also suggest that the brain bases of some cognitive functions may be better detected by SS than by SNGA approaches to fMRI data analysis.

Computerized short-term memory treatment for older adults with aphasia

We report on a software prototype designed to deliver a novel term memory treatment for older adults with aphasia. We conducted a review of the prototype with 14 speech and language therapists, to elicit feedback on the potential usefulness of the ultimate application and, particularly, the prototype in terms of its main design features and use by older adults with aphasia. The clinicians’ feedback highlights a number of design considerations relating to the usability, training methods, and appeal of treatment software, which can help engage patients more fully in computerized treatments and improve treatment outcomes.

Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz) couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E), during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF) detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

The STEP scale: a measure of short-term export performance improvement

This article is a direct response to a recent observation in the literature that managers appear to be short-term oriented in their assessment of the performance of an export venture (Madsen 1998). On the basis of a cross-national survey of exporting firms, the authors present a three-dimensional scale for assessing managerial judgment of short-term export performance (i.e., the STEP scale). The three dimensions are (1) satisfaction with short-term performance improvement, (2) short-term exporting intensity improvement, and (3) expected short-term performance improvement. The scale presents evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant, and nomological validity, and it reveals factorial similarity and factorial equivalence across both samples. The authors outline managerial and public policy implications that stem from the scale and identify avenues for further export marketing research.

Short-term variability of solar wind number density, speed and dynamic pressure as a function of the interplanetary magnetic field components: A survey over two solar cycles

The variability of hourly values of solar wind number density, number density variation, speed, speed variation and dynamic pressure with IMF Bz and magnitude |B| has been examined for the period 1965–1986. We wish to draw attention to a strong correlation in number density and number density fluctuation with IMF Bz characterised by a symmetric increasing trend in these quantities away from Bz = 0 nT. The fluctuation level in solar wind speed is found to be relatively independent of Bz. We infer that number density and number density variability dominate in controlling solar wind dynamic pressure and dynamic pressure variability. It is also found that dynamic pressure is correlated with each component of IMF and that there is evidence of morphological differences between the variation with each component. Finally, we examine the variation of number density, speed, dynamic pressure and fluctuation level in number density and speed with IMF magnitude |B|. Again we find that number density variation dominates over solar wind speed in controlling dynamic pressure.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Methane emissions from cattle: estimates from short-term measurements using a Green Feed system compared with measurements obtained using respiration chambers or sulphur hexafluoride tracer

The Green Feed (GF) system (C-Lock Inc., Rapid City, USA) is used to estimate total daily methane emissions of individual cattle using short-term measurements obtained over several days. Our objective was to compare measurements of methane emission by growing cattle obtained using the GF system with measurements using respiration chambers (RC)or sulphur hexafluoride tracer (SF6). It was hypothesised that estimates of methane emission for individual animals and treatments would be similar for GF compared to RC or SF6 techniques. In experiment 1, maize or grass silage-based diets were fed to four growing Holstein heifers, whilst for experiment 2, four different heifers were fed four haylage treatments. Both experiments were a 4 × 4 Latin square design with 33 day periods. Green Feed measurements of methane emission were obtained over 7 days (days 22–28) and com-pared to subsequent RC measurements over 4 days (days 29–33). For experiment 3, 12growing heifers rotationally grazed three swards for 26 days, with simultaneous GF and SF6 measurements over two 4 day measurement periods (days 15–19 and days 22–26).Overall methane emissions (g/day and g/kg dry matter intake [DMI]) measured using GF in experiments 1 (198 and 26.6, respectively) and 2 (208 and 27.8, respectively) were similar to averages obtained using RC (218 and 28.3, respectively for experiment 1; and 209 and 27.7, respectively, for experiment 2); but there was poor concordance between the two methods (0.1043 for experiments 1 and 2 combined). Overall, methane emissions measured using SF6 were higher (P<0.001) than GF during grazing (186 vs. 164 g/day), but there was significant (P<0.01) concordance between the two methods (0.6017). There were fewer methane measurements by GF under grazing conditions in experiment 3 (1.60/day) com-pared to indoor measurements in experiments 1 (2.11/day) and 2 (2.34/day). Significant treatment effects on methane emission measured using RC and SF6 were not evident for GF measurements, and the ranking for treatments and individual animals differed using the GF system. We conclude that under our conditions of use the GF system was unable to detectsignificant treatment and individual animal differences in methane emissions that were identified using both RC and SF6techniques, in part due to limited numbers and timing ofmeasurements obtained. Our data suggest that successful use of the GF system is reliant on the number and timing of measurements obtained relative to diurnal patterns of methane emission.

Design of a computerised treatment for short-term memory deficits in aphasia

The treatment of auditory-verbal short-term memory (STM) deficits in aphasia is a growing avenue of research (Martin & Reilly, 2012; Murray, 2012). STM treatment requires time precision, which is suited to computerised delivery. We have designed software, which provides STM treatment for aphasia. The treatment is based on matching listening span tasks (Howard & Franklin, 1990), aiming to improve the temporal maintenance of multi-word sequences (Salis, 2012). The person listens to pairs of word-lists that differ in word-order and decides if the pairs are the same or different. This approach does not require speech output and is suitable for persons with aphasia who have limited or no output. We describe the software and how its review from clinicians shaped its design.