Max Weber in the thought of Edward Shils (1910–1995) and Ernest Gellner (1925–1995): the paradox of two Weberian approaches to the understanding of nations and nationalism?

This article traces the paradoxical impact of Weber's oeuvre on two major scholars of nationalism, Ernest Gellner and Edward Shils. Both these scholars died in 1995, leaving behind a rich corpus of writings on the nation and nationalism, much of which was inspired by Max Weber. The paradox is that although neither scholar accepted Weber's sceptical attitude to the concept of ‘nation’, they both used his other major concepts, such as ‘rationality’, ‘disenchantment’, ‘unintended consequences’, the ‘ethic of responsibility’ and ‘charisma’, in their very analyses of the nation and nationalism. And they both saw, each in his own way, the nation and nationalism as constitutive elements of modern societies. However, the paradox ceases being a paradox if one sees the integration, by Shils and Gellner, of concepts of the nation and of nationalism in the analysis of modernity, as a development of Weber's ideas.

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Complex extreme learning machine applications in terahertz pulsed signals feature sets

This paper presents a novel approach to the automatic classification of very large data sets composed of terahertz pulse transient signals, highlighting their potential use in biochemical, biomedical, pharmaceutical and security applications. Two different types of THz spectra are considered in the classification process. Firstly a binary classification study of poly-A and poly-C ribonucleic acid samples is performed. This is then contrasted with a difficult multi-class classification problem of spectra from six different powder samples that although have fairly indistinguishable features in the optical spectrum, they also possess a few discernable spectral features in the terahertz part of the spectrum. Classification is performed using a complex-valued extreme learning machine algorithm that takes into account features in both the amplitude as well as the phase of the recorded spectra. Classification speed and accuracy are contrasted with that achieved using a support vector machine classifier. The study systematically compares the classifier performance achieved after adopting different Gaussian kernels when separating amplitude and phase signatures. The two signatures are presented as feature vectors for both training and testing purposes. The study confirms the utility of complex-valued extreme learning machine algorithms for classification of the very large data sets generated with current terahertz imaging spectrometers. The classifier can take into consideration heterogeneous layers within an object as would be required within a tomographic setting and is sufficiently robust to detect patterns hidden inside noisy terahertz data sets. The proposed study opens up the opportunity for the establishment of complex-valued extreme learning machine algorithms as new chemometric tools that will assist the wider proliferation of terahertz sensing technology for chemical sensing, quality control, security screening and clinic diagnosis. Furthermore, the proposed algorithm should also be very useful in other applications requiring the classification of very large datasets.

Weighted alpha-rate dominating sets in social networks

We are looking into variants of a domination set problem in social networks. While randomised algorithms for solving the minimum weighted domination set problem and the minimum alpha and alpha-rate domination problem on simple graphs are already present in the literature, we propose here a randomised algorithm for the minimum weighted alpha-rate domination set problem which is, to the best of our knowledge, the first such algorithm. A theoretical approximation bound based on a simple randomised rounding technique is given. The algorithm is implemented in Python and applied to a UK Twitter mentions networks using a measure of individuals’ influence (klout) as weights. We argue that the weights of vertices could be interpreted as the costs of getting those individuals on board for a campaign or a behaviour change intervention. The minimum weighted alpha-rate dominating set problem can therefore be seen as finding a set that minimises the total cost and each individual in a network has at least alpha percentage of its neighbours in the chosen set. We also test our algorithm on generated graphs with several thousand vertices and edges. Our results on this real-life Twitter networks and generated graphs show that the implementation is reasonably efficient and thus can be used for real-life applications when creating social network based interventions, designing social media campaigns and potentially improving users’ social media experience.

The full infinite dimensional moment problem on semi-algebraic sets of generalized functions

We consider a generic basic semi-algebraic subset S of the space of generalized functions, that is a set given by (not necessarily countably many) polynomial constraints. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an infinite sequence of generalized functions to be realizable on S, namely to be the moment sequence of a finite measure concentrated on S. Our approach combines the classical results about the moment problem on nuclear spaces with the techniques recently developed to treat the moment problem on basic semi-algebraic sets of Rd. In this way, we determine realizability conditions that can be more easily verified than the well-known Haviland type conditions. Our result completely characterizes the support of the realizing measure in terms of its moments. As concrete examples of semi-algebraic sets of generalized functions, we consider the set of all Radon measures and the set of all the measures having bounded Radon–Nikodym density w.r.t. the Lebesgue measure.

A method for merging nadir-sounding climate records, with an application to the global-mean stratospheric temperature data sets from SSU and AMSU

A method is proposed for merging different nadir-sounding climate data records using measurements from high-resolution limb sounders to provide a transfer function between the different nadir measurements. The two nadir-sounding records need not be overlapping so long as the limb-sounding record bridges between them. The method is applied to global-mean stratospheric temperatures from the NOAA Climate Data Records based on the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU), extending the SSU record forward in time to yield a continuous data set from 1979 to present, and providing a simple framework for extending the SSU record into the future using AMSU. SSU and AMSU are bridged using temperature measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which is of high enough vertical resolution to accurately represent the weighting functions of both SSU and AMSU. For this application, a purely statistical approach is not viable since the different nadir channels are not sufficiently linearly independent, statistically speaking. The near-global-mean linear temperature trends for extended SSU for 1980–2012 are −0.63 ± 0.13, −0.71 ± 0.15 and −0.80 ± 0.17 K decade−1 (95 % confidence) for channels 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The extended SSU temperature changes are in good agreement with those from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aura satellite, with both exhibiting a cooling trend of ~ 0.6 ± 0.3 K decade−1 in the upper stratosphere from 2004 to 2012. The extended SSU record is found to be in agreement with high-top coupled atmosphere–ocean models over the 1980–2012 period, including the continued cooling over the first decade of the 21st century.

Decadal predictability of regional-scale peak winds over Europe using the Earth System Model of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology

The predictability of high impact weather events on multiple time scales is a crucial issue both in scientific and socio-economic terms. In this study, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is applied to an ensemble of decadal hindcasts obtained with the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) to estimate the decadal predictability of peak wind speeds (as a proxy for gusts) over Europe. Yearly initialized decadal ensemble simulations with ten members are investigated for the period 1979–2005. The SDD approach is trained with COSMO-CLM regional climate model simulations and ERA-Interim reanalysis data and applied to the MPI-ESM hindcasts. The simulations for the period 1990–1993, which was characterized by several windstorm clusters, are analyzed in detail. The anomalies of the 95 % peak wind quantile of the MPI-ESM hindcasts are in line with the positive anomalies in reanalysis data for this period. To evaluate both the skill of the decadal predictability system and the added value of the downscaling approach, quantile verification skill scores are calculated for both the MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and the SDD simulated regional peak winds. Skill scores are predominantly positive for the decadal predictability system, with the highest values for short lead times and for (peak) wind speeds equal or above the 75 % quantile. This provides evidence that the analyzed hindcasts and the downscaling technique are suitable for estimating wind and peak wind speeds over Central Europe on decadal time scales. The skill scores for SDD simulated peak winds are slightly lower than those for large-scale wind speeds. This behavior can be largely attributed to the fact that peak winds are a proxy for gusts, and thus have a higher variability than wind speeds. The introduced cost-efficient downscaling technique has the advantage of estimating not only wind speeds but also estimates peak winds (a proxy for gusts) and can be easily applied to large ensemble datasets like operational decadal prediction systems.

A multifractal zeta function for Gibbs measures supported on cookie-cutter sets

Starting with the work of Lapidus and van Frankenhuysen a number of papers have introduced zeta functions as a way of capturing multifractal information. In this paper we propose a new multifractal zeta function and show that under certain conditions the abscissa of convergence yields the Hausdorff multifractal spectrum for a class of measures.

On the cardinality and complexity of the set of codings for self-similar sets with positive Lebesgue measure

Let λ1,…,λn be real numbers in (0,1) and p1,…,pn be points in Rd. Consider the collection of maps fj:Rd→Rd given by fj(x)=λjx+(1−λj)pj. It is a well known result that there exists a unique nonempty compact set Λ⊂Rd satisfying Λ=∪nj=1fj(Λ). Each x∈Λ has at least one coding, that is a sequence (ϵi)∞i=1 ∈{1,…,n}N that satisfies limN→∞fϵ1…fϵN(0)=x. We study the size and complexity of the set of codings of a generic x∈Λ when Λ has positive Lebesgue measure. In particular, we show that under certain natural conditions almost every x∈Λ has a continuum of codings. We also show that almost every x∈Λ has a universal coding. Our work makes no assumptions on the existence of holes in Λ and improves upon existing results when it is assumed Λ contains no holes.

On univoque points for self-similar sets

Let K⊆R be the unique attractor of an iterated function system. We consider the case where K is an interval and study those elements of K with a unique coding. We prove under mild conditions that the set of points with a unique coding can be identified with a subshift of finite type. As a consequence, we can show that the set of points with a unique coding is a graph-directed self-similar set in the sense of Mauldin and Williams (1988). The theory of Mauldin and Williams then provides a method by which we can explicitly calculate the Hausdorff dimension of this set. Our algorithm can be applied generically, and our result generalises the work of Daróczy, Kátai, Kallós, Komornik and de Vries.

Arnold v. Britton: a ratio and two sets of obiter dicta

Arnold v Britton marks the final stage of the longstanding dispute as to the correct interpretation of a number of 99-year leases of chalets on a leisure park at Oxwich, in the Gower peninsula, near Swansea. The aspect of the case which has attracted most discussion has, understandably, been its main ratio: the proper way to construe a provision of a lease which arguably has an absurd result. This will be considered in this case-note. The judgment of the Supreme Court – particularly the judgment of Lord Neuberger PSC – does, however contain some observations on the possible reform of the law on service charges which are of interest to those engaged in this field. It also contains some obiter comments on ‘letting schemes’ which are – in the view of the present author – highly unorthodox. These three rather disparate issues which are raised by this case will be considered in turn. As they have little in common with each other, they will be considered as separate sections.

Moral uncertainty and permissibility: evaluating option sets

In this essay, we explore an issue of moral uncertainty: what we are permitted to do when we are unsure about which moral principles are correct. We develop a novel approach to this issue that incorporates important insights from previous work on moral uncertainty, while avoiding some of the difficulties that beset existing alternative approaches. Our approach is based on evaluating and choosing between option sets rather than particular conduct options. We show how our approach is particularly well-suited to address this issue of moral uncertainty with respect to agents that have credence in moral theories that are not fully consequentialist.