Numerical simulation of tephra transport and deposition of the 1982 El Chichón eruption and implications for hazard assessment

El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550 years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.

Change detection evokes a Simon-like effect

A change detection paradigm was used to estimate the role of explicit change detection in the generation of the irrelevant spatial stimulus coding underlying the Simon effect. In one condition, no blank was interposed between two successive displays, which produced efficient change detection. In another condition, the presence of a blank frame produced a robust change blindness effect, which is crucially assumed to occur as the consequence of impaired attentional orienting to the change location. The results showed a strong Simon-like effect under conditions of efficient change detection. By contrast, no Simon-like effect was observed under conditions of change blindness, namely when attention shifting towards the change location was hampered. Experiment 2 supported this pattern by showing that a Simon-like effect could be observed when the blank was present, but only when participants detected the change by means of a cue that was informative as to change location. Overall, our findings show that a Simon-like effect can only be observed under conditions of explicit change detection, likely because a shift of attention towards the change location has occurred.

Ozone and climate: a review of interconnections

Stratospheric ozone has been depleted over the last 25 years following anthropogenic emissions of a number of chlorine- and bromine-containing compounds (ozone-depleting substances, ODSs), which are now regulated under the Montreal Protocol. The Protocol has been effective in controlling the net growth of these compounds in the atmosphere. As chlorine and bromine slowly decrease in the future, ozone levels are expected to increase in the coming decades, although the evolution will also depend on the changing climate system.

Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Cigarette smoke-induced neurogenic inflammation is mediated by α,β-unsaturated aldehydes and the TRPA1 receptor in rodents

Cigarette smoke (CS) inhalation causes an early inflammatory response in rodent airways by stimulating capsaicin-sensitive sensory neurons that express transient receptor potential cation channel, subfamily V, member 1 (TRPV1) through an unknown mechanism that does not involve TRPV1. We hypothesized that 2 alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes present in CS, crotonaldehyde and acrolein, induce neurogenic inflammation by stimulating TRPA1, an excitatory ion channel coexpressed with TRPV1 on capsaicin-sensitive nociceptors. We found that CS aqueous extract (CSE), crotonaldehyde, and acrolein mobilized Ca2+ in cultured guinea pig jugular ganglia neurons and promoted contraction of isolated guinea pig bronchi. These responses were abolished by a TRPA1-selective antagonist and by the aldehyde scavenger glutathione but not by the TRPV1 antagonist capsazepine or by ROS scavengers. Treatment with CSE or aldehydes increased Ca2+ influx in TRPA1-transfected cells, but not in control HEK293 cells, and promoted neuropeptide release from isolated guinea pig airway tissue. Furthermore, the effect of CSE and aldehydes on Ca2+ influx in dorsal root ganglion neurons was abolished in TRPA1-deficient mice. These data identify alpha,beta-unsaturated aldehydes as the main causative agents in CS that via TRPA1 stimulation mediate airway neurogenic inflammation and suggest a role for TRPA1 in the pathogenesis of CS-induced diseases.

A spatial view of ensemble spread in convection permitting ensembles

With movement toward kilometer-scale ensembles, new techniques are needed for their characterization. A new methodology is presented for detailed spatial ensemble characterization using the fractions skill score (FSS). To evaluate spatial forecast differences, the average and standard deviation are taken of the FSS calculated over all ensemble member–member pairs at different scales and lead times. These methods were found to give important information about the ensemble behavior allowing the identification of useful spatial scales, spinup times for the model, and upscale growth of errors and forecast differences. The ensemble spread was found to be highly dependent on the spatial scales considered and the threshold applied to the field. High thresholds picked out localized and intense values that gave large temporal variability in ensemble spread: local processes and undersampling dominate for these thresholds. For lower thresholds the ensemble spread increases with time as differences between the ensemble members upscale. Two convective cases were investigated based on the Met Office United Model run at 2.2-km resolution. Different ensemble types were considered: ensembles produced using the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS) and an ensemble produced using different model physics configurations. Comparison of the MOGREPS and multiphysics ensembles demonstrated the utility of spatial ensemble evaluation techniques for assessing the impact of different perturbation strategies and the need for assessing spread at different, believable, spatial scales.

Gender and the business cycle: an analysis of labour markets in the US and UK

Starting from an improved understanding of the relationship between gender labour market stocks and the business cycle, we analyse the contributing role of flows in the US and UK. Focusing on the post 2008 recession period, the subsequent greater rise in male unemployment can mostly be explained by a less cyclical response of flows between employment and unemployment for women, especially the entry into unemployment. Across gender and country, the inactivity rate is generally not sensitive to the state of the economy. However, a flows based analysis reveals a greater importance of the participation margin over the cycle. Changes in the rates of flow between unemployment and inactivity can each account for around 0.8-1.1 percentage points of the rise in US male and female unemployment rates during the latest downturn. For the UK, although the participation flow to unemployment similarly contributed to the increase of the female unemployment rate, this was not the case for men. The countercyclical flow rate from inactivity to employment was also more significant for women, especially in the US, where it accounted for approximately all of the fall in employment, compared with only 40% for men.

Using social networking tools for teaching and learning: a perspective of University lecturers and students

The use of online social networking tools (SNTs) has become commonplace within higher education. In this paper a definition and a typology of educational affordance of social networking service (SNS) are presented. The paper also explores the educational affordances whilst examining how university lecturers and students use SNTs to support their educational activities. The data presented here were obtained through a survey in which 38 participants from three universities took part; two universities in Uganda and one in the United Kingdom. The results show that Facebook is the most popular tool with 75 % of participants having profiles. Whilst most participants perceived the educational significance of these tools, social affordances remain more pronounced compared to pedagogical and technological affordances. The limitations of this study have also been discussed.

Students’ perception of privacy risks in using social networking sites for learning: a study of Uganda Christian University

Although social networking sites (SNSs) present a great deal of opportunities to support learning, the privacy risk is perceived by learners as a friction point that affects their full use for learning. Privacy risks in SNSs can be divided into risks that are posed by the SNS provider itself and risks that result from user’s social interactions. Using an online survey questionnaire, this study explored the students’ perception of the benefits in using social networking sites for learning purposes and their perceived privacy risks. A sample of 214 students from Uganda Christian University in Africa was studied. The results show that although 88 % of participants indicated the usefulness of SNSs for learning, they are also aware of the risks associated with these sites. Most of the participants are concerned with privacy risks such as identity theft, cyber bullying, and impersonation that might influence their online learning participation in SNSs.

Different strategies for improving summer thermal comfort in heavyweight traditional buildings

In order to exploit the passive energy potential of the building envelope, it is important to provide a right combination of insulation thickness, heat capacity and night-time ventilation. In this paper, this issue will be tackled with reference to an historic building in Catania (Southern Italy). The building was built at the end of the XIX century, and its opaque envelope is entirely made with lava stones, which is typical of traditional architecture in this area. Starting from the current configuration of the building, many hypotheses for refurbishment are considered, combined with different strategies for passive cooling, such as night-time ventilation, use of shading devices and adoption of highly-reflective coatings. The effectiveness of each solution in terms of summer thermal comfort is evaluated through dynamic thermal simulations carried out with EnergyPlus. The results show the synergic effect of these strategies, as well as their individual impact, and allow to draw some general conclusions about the behaviour of heavyweight buildings under moderately hot weather conditions.