Self-consistent field theory for diblock copolymers grafted to a sphere

An efficient numerical self-consistent field theory (SCFT) algorithm is developed for treating structured polymers on spherical surfaces. The method solves the diffusion equations of SCFT with a pseudospectral approach that combines a spherical-harmonics expansion for the angular coordinates with a modified real-space Crank–Nicolson method for the radial direction. The self-consistent field equations are solved with Anderson-mixing iterations using dynamical parameters and an alignment procedure to prevent angular drift of the solution. A demonstration of the algorithm is provided for thin films of diblock copolymer grafted to the surface of a spherical core, in which the sequence of equilibrium morphologies is predicted as a function of diblock composition. The study reveals an array of interesting behaviors as the block copolymer pattern is forced to adapt to the finite surface area of the sphere.

A comparison of extreme value theory approaches for determining value at risk

This paper compares a number of different extreme value models for determining the value at risk (VaR) of three LIFFE futures contracts. A semi-nonparametric approach is also proposed, where the tail events are modeled using the generalised Pareto distribution, and normal market conditions are captured by the empirical distribution function. The value at risk estimates from this approach are compared with those of standard nonparametric extreme value tail estimation approaches, with a small sample bias-corrected extreme value approach, and with those calculated from bootstrapping the unconditional density and bootstrapping from a GARCH(1,1) model. The results indicate that, for a holdout sample, the proposed semi-nonparametric extreme value approach yields superior results to other methods, but the small sample tail index technique is also accurate.

Decision theory and real estate development: a note on uncertainty

Real estate development appraisal is a quantification of future expectations. The appraisal model relies upon the valuer/developer having an understanding of the future in terms of the future marketability of the completed development and the future cost of development. In some cases the developer has some degree of control over the possible variation in the variables, as with the cost of construction through the choice of specification. However, other variables, such as the sale price of the final product, are totally dependent upon the vagaries of the market at the completion date. To try to address the risk of a different outcome to the one expected (modelled) the developer will often carry out a sensitivity analysis on the development. However, traditional sensitivity analysis has generally only looked at the best and worst scenarios and has focused on the anticipated or expected outcomes. This does not take into account uncertainty and the range of outcomes that can happen. A fuller analysis should include examination of the uncertainties in each of the components of the appraisal and account for the appropriate distributions of the variables. Similarly, as many of the variables in the model are not independent, the variables need to be correlated. This requires a standardised approach and we suggest that the use of a generic forecasting software package, in this case Crystal Ball, allows the analyst to work with an existing development appraisal model set up in Excel (or other spreadsheet) and to work with a predetermined set of probability distributions. Without a full knowledge of risk, developers are unable to determine the anticipated level of return that should be sought to compensate for the risk. This model allows the user a better understanding of the possible outcomes for the development. Ultimately the final decision will be made relative to current expectations and current business constraints, but by assessing the upside and downside risks more appropriately, the decision maker should be better placed to make a more informed and “better”.

Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

The economic theory of international business: a supply chain perspective

This paper proposes a way of addressing unresolved issues in international business theory by modelling the multinational enterprise as a coordinator of supply chains. It identifies a new market seeking strategy that is an alternative to conventional strategies such as exporting, licensing and FDI, and analyses the conditions under which it will be adopted by firms. The new strategy involves the off-shoring of production and the out-sourcing of R&D, and is implemented through co-operation between a source country firm and a host country firm.

Can sentiment surveys pre-empt real estate market activities?

We evaluate a number of real estate sentiment indices to ascertain current and forward-looking information content that may be useful for forecasting the demand and supply activities. Our focus lies on sector-specific surveys targeting the players from the supply-side of both residential and non-residential real estate markets. Analyzing the dynamic relationships within a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) framework, we test the efficacy of these indices by comparing them with other coincident indicators in predicting real estate returns. Overall, our analysis suggests that sentiment indicators convey important information which should be embedded in the modeling exercise to predict real estate market returns. Generally, sentiment indices show better information content than broad economic indicators. The goodness of fit of our models is higher for the residential market than for the non-residential real estate sector. The impulse responses, in general, conform to our theoretical expectations. Variance decompositions and out-of-sample predictions generally show desired contribution and reasonable improvement respectively, thus upholding our hypothesis. Quite remarkably, consistent with the theory, the predictability swings when we look through different phases of the cycle. This perhaps suggests that, e.g. during recessions, market players’ expectations may be more accurate predictor of the future performances, conceivably indicating a ‘negative’ information processing bias and thus conforming to the precautionary motive of consumer behaviour.

Forward pricing and the housing market: the pre-sales housing system in Taiwan

In countries that have experienced rapid economic development, the need to establish more efficient markets in which private property can be constructed has induced some innovative solutions. One such solution is the phenomenon of a pre-sales market of the kind that can be observed in Taiwan, Korea, and more recently in China. Developers sell their property before building is started in order to acquire financing for the development companies. This paper discusses the process and, by recognising the analogy between the pre-sales market and forwards markets, analyses the implications for developers

Ideological dominance in recreation provision: towards a theory of Local Authority response to Compulsory Competitive Tendering in Britain

This paper considers how the delivery of public leisure services in Britain has been affected by the imposition of Compulsory Competitive Tendering (CCT) on the management of facilities. In particular, it focuses on the changing relationship between the central and local levels of government, theorising a tripartite local response to CCT, incorporating local statism, post-Fordist rejection of CCT and post- Fordist compliance with the aims of the central administration. The paper then discusses the actual implementation of CCT, relating the theorised responses to those witnessed in practice. This results in the delineation of a continuum of stances, ranging from pragmatic forms of local statism, such as the protection of the former direct labour force, to centrist attempts to combine the ethics of socialism with the mechanics of the market, to an outright rejection of state organisation and control. The paper concludes that although legitimate attempts have been made to protect local services, the outcome of the CCT process has undoubtedly been the regeneration of public leisure provision away from its service roots towards a market model of provision.

Entrepreneurial opportunities, implicit contracts and market making for complex consumer goods

This article extends the theory of entrepreneurial opportunity exploitation, outlining how under certain conditions, opportunity exploitation is dependent on market making innovations. Where adverse selection and moral hazard characterize markets, consumers are likely to withdraw regardless of product quality. In order to overcome consumer resistance, entrepreneurs must signal credible commitments. But because consumers purchase without fully specifying requirements, entrepreneurs' commitments take the partial form of implicit contracts, creating strong mutual commitments to repeated transactions. These commitments enable novel markets to function, but introduce additional costs. This article illustrates the theory with the historic case of Singer in sewing machines

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

The economic theory of international supply chains: a systems view

This paper offers an integrated analysis of out-sourcing, off-shoring and foreign direct investment within a systems view of international business. This view takes the supply chain rather than the firm as the basic unit of analysis. It argues that competition in the global economy selects supply chains that maximise the joint profit of all the firms in the chain. The systems view is compared with the firm-centred view commonly used in strategy literature. The paper shows that a firm’s strategy must be embedded within an efficient supply chain strategy, and that this strategy must be negotiated with, rather than imposed upon, other firms. The paper analyses the conditions under which various supply chain strategies - and by implication various firm-level strategies - are efficient. Only by adopting a systems view of supply chains is it possible to determine which firm-level strategies will succeed in a volatile global economy.

Review of R&D progress and practical application of the solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies

In this paper, the global market potential of solar thermal, photovoltaic (PV) and combined photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies in current time and near future was discussed. The concept of the PV/T and the theory behind the PV/T operation were briefly introduced, and standards for evaluating technical, economic and environmental performance of the PV/T systems were addressed. A comprehensive literature review into R&D works and practical application of the PV/T technology was illustrated and the review results were critically analysed in terms of PV/T type and research methodology used. The major features, current status, research focuses and existing difficulties/barriers related to the various types of PV/T were identified. The research methods, including theoretical analyses and computer simulation, experimental and combined experimental/theoretical investigation, demonstration and feasibility study, as well as economic and environmental analyses, applied into the PV/T technology were individually discussed, and the achievement and problems remaining in each research method category were described. Finally, opportunities for further work to carry on PV/T study were identified. The review research indicated that air/water-based PV/T systems are the commonly used technologies but their thermal removal effectiveness is lower. Refrigerant/heat-pipe-based PV/Ts, although still in research/laboratory stage, could achieve much higher solar conversion efficiencies over the air/water-based systems. However, these systems were found a few technical challenges in practice which require further resolutions. The review research suggested that further works could be undertaken to (1) develop new feasible, economic and energy efficient PV/T systems; (2) optimise the structural/geometrical configurations of the existing PV/T systems; (3) study long term dynamic performance of the PV/T systems; (4) demonstrate the PV/T systems in real buildings and conduct the feasibility study; and (5) carry on advanced economic and environmental analyses. This review research helps finding the questions remaining in PV/T technology, identify new research topics/directions to further improve the performance of the PV/T, remove the barriers in PV/T practical application, establish the standards/regulations related to PV/T design and installation, and promote its market penetration throughout the world.

P-Prism: a computationally efficient approach to scaling up classification rule induction

Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) is the most commonly used method of constructing a model from a dataset in the form of classification rules to classify previously unseen data. Alternative algorithms have been developed such as the Prism algorithm. Prism constructs modular rules which produce qualitatively better rules than rules induced by TDIDT. However, along with the increasing size of databases, many existing rule learning algorithms have proved to be computational expensive on large datasets. To tackle the problem of scalability, parallel classification rule induction algorithms have been introduced. As TDIDT is the most popular classifier, even though there are strongly competitive alternative algorithms, most parallel approaches to inducing classification rules are based on TDIDT. In this paper we describe work on a distributed classifier that induces classification rules in a parallel manner based on Prism.

Was the Australian meat and livestock corporations advertising efficient?

A theory of the allocation of producer levies earmarked for downstream promotion is developed and applied to quarterly series (1970:2–1988:4) on red-meats advertising by the Australian Meat and Live-stock Corporation. Robust inferences about program efficiency are contained in the coefficients of changes in promotion effort regressed against movements in farm price and quantity. Empirical evidence of program efficiency is inconclusive. While the deeper issue of efficient disbursement of funds remains an open question, there is evidence, at least, of efficient taxation.