7 resultados para Efficient market theory

em CaltechTHESIS


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Signal processing techniques play important roles in the design of digital communication systems. These include information manipulation, transmitter signal processing, channel estimation, channel equalization and receiver signal processing. By interacting with communication theory and system implementing technologies, signal processing specialists develop efficient schemes for various communication problems by wisely exploiting various mathematical tools such as analysis, probability theory, matrix theory, optimization theory, and many others. In recent years, researchers realized that multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) channel models are applicable to a wide range of different physical communications channels. Using the elegant matrix-vector notations, many MIMO transceiver (including the precoder and equalizer) design problems can be solved by matrix and optimization theory. Furthermore, the researchers showed that the majorization theory and matrix decompositions, such as singular value decomposition (SVD), geometric mean decomposition (GMD) and generalized triangular decomposition (GTD), provide unified frameworks for solving many of the point-to-point MIMO transceiver design problems.

In this thesis, we consider the transceiver design problems for linear time invariant (LTI) flat MIMO channels, linear time-varying narrowband MIMO channels, flat MIMO broadcast channels, and doubly selective scalar channels. Additionally, the channel estimation problem is also considered. The main contributions of this dissertation are the development of new matrix decompositions, and the uses of the matrix decompositions and majorization theory toward the practical transmit-receive scheme designs for transceiver optimization problems. Elegant solutions are obtained, novel transceiver structures are developed, ingenious algorithms are proposed, and performance analyses are derived.

The first part of the thesis focuses on transceiver design with LTI flat MIMO channels. We propose a novel matrix decomposition which decomposes a complex matrix as a product of several sets of semi-unitary matrices and upper triangular matrices in an iterative manner. The complexity of the new decomposition, generalized geometric mean decomposition (GGMD), is always less than or equal to that of geometric mean decomposition (GMD). The optimal GGMD parameters which yield the minimal complexity are derived. Based on the channel state information (CSI) at both the transmitter (CSIT) and receiver (CSIR), GGMD is used to design a butterfly structured decision feedback equalizer (DFE) MIMO transceiver which achieves the minimum average mean square error (MSE) under the total transmit power constraint. A novel iterative receiving detection algorithm for the specific receiver is also proposed. For the application to cyclic prefix (CP) systems in which the SVD of the equivalent channel matrix can be easily computed, the proposed GGMD transceiver has K/log_2(K) times complexity advantage over the GMD transceiver, where K is the number of data symbols per data block and is a power of 2. The performance analysis shows that the GGMD DFE transceiver can convert a MIMO channel into a set of parallel subchannels with the same bias and signal to interference plus noise ratios (SINRs). Hence, the average bit rate error (BER) is automatically minimized without the need for bit allocation. Moreover, the proposed transceiver can achieve the channel capacity simply by applying independent scalar Gaussian codes of the same rate at subchannels.

In the second part of the thesis, we focus on MIMO transceiver design for slowly time-varying MIMO channels with zero-forcing or MMSE criterion. Even though the GGMD/GMD DFE transceivers work for slowly time-varying MIMO channels by exploiting the instantaneous CSI at both ends, their performance is by no means optimal since the temporal diversity of the time-varying channels is not exploited. Based on the GTD, we develop space-time GTD (ST-GTD) for the decomposition of linear time-varying flat MIMO channels. Under the assumption that CSIT, CSIR and channel prediction are available, by using the proposed ST-GTD, we develop space-time geometric mean decomposition (ST-GMD) DFE transceivers under the zero-forcing or MMSE criterion. Under perfect channel prediction, the new system minimizes both the average MSE at the detector in each space-time (ST) block (which consists of several coherence blocks), and the average per ST-block BER in the moderate high SNR region. Moreover, the ST-GMD DFE transceiver designed under an MMSE criterion maximizes Gaussian mutual information over the equivalent channel seen by each ST-block. In general, the newly proposed transceivers perform better than the GGMD-based systems since the super-imposed temporal precoder is able to exploit the temporal diversity of time-varying channels. For practical applications, a novel ST-GTD based system which does not require channel prediction but shares the same asymptotic BER performance with the ST-GMD DFE transceiver is also proposed.

The third part of the thesis considers two quality of service (QoS) transceiver design problems for flat MIMO broadcast channels. The first one is the power minimization problem (min-power) with a total bitrate constraint and per-stream BER constraints. The second problem is the rate maximization problem (max-rate) with a total transmit power constraint and per-stream BER constraints. Exploiting a particular class of joint triangularization (JT), we are able to jointly optimize the bit allocation and the broadcast DFE transceiver for the min-power and max-rate problems. The resulting optimal designs are called the minimum power JT broadcast DFE transceiver (MPJT) and maximum rate JT broadcast DFE transceiver (MRJT), respectively. In addition to the optimal designs, two suboptimal designs based on QR decomposition are proposed. They are realizable for arbitrary number of users.

Finally, we investigate the design of a discrete Fourier transform (DFT) modulated filterbank transceiver (DFT-FBT) with LTV scalar channels. For both cases with known LTV channels and unknown wide sense stationary uncorrelated scattering (WSSUS) statistical channels, we show how to optimize the transmitting and receiving prototypes of a DFT-FBT such that the SINR at the receiver is maximized. Also, a novel pilot-aided subspace channel estimation algorithm is proposed for the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) systems with quasi-stationary multi-path Rayleigh fading channels. Using the concept of a difference co-array, the new technique can construct M^2 co-pilots from M physical pilot tones with alternating pilot placement. Subspace methods, such as MUSIC and ESPRIT, can be used to estimate the multipath delays and the number of identifiable paths is up to O(M^2), theoretically. With the delay information, a MMSE estimator for frequency response is derived. It is shown through simulations that the proposed method outperforms the conventional subspace channel estimator when the number of multipaths is greater than or equal to the number of physical pilots minus one.

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The dissertation studies the general area of complex networked systems that consist of interconnected and active heterogeneous components and usually operate in uncertain environments and with incomplete information. Problems associated with those systems are typically large-scale and computationally intractable, yet they are also very well-structured and have features that can be exploited by appropriate modeling and computational methods. The goal of this thesis is to develop foundational theories and tools to exploit those structures that can lead to computationally-efficient and distributed solutions, and apply them to improve systems operations and architecture.

Specifically, the thesis focuses on two concrete areas. The first one is to design distributed rules to manage distributed energy resources in the power network. The power network is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The future smart grid, especially on the distribution system, will be a large-scale network of distributed energy resources (DERs), each introducing random and rapid fluctuations in power supply, demand, voltage and frequency. These DERs provide a tremendous opportunity for sustainability, efficiency, and power reliability. However, there are daunting technical challenges in managing these DERs and optimizing their operation. The focus of this dissertation is to develop scalable, distributed, and real-time control and optimization to achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for the future power grid. In particular, we will present how to explore the power network structure to design efficient and distributed market and algorithms for the energy management. We will also show how to connect the algorithms with physical dynamics and existing control mechanisms for real-time control in power networks.

The second focus is to develop distributed optimization rules for general multi-agent engineering systems. A central goal in multiagent systems is to design local control laws for the individual agents to ensure that the emergent global behavior is desirable with respect to the given system level objective. Ideally, a system designer seeks to satisfy this goal while conditioning each agent’s control on the least amount of information possible. Our work focused on achieving this goal using the framework of game theory. In particular, we derived a systematic methodology for designing local agent objective functions that guarantees (i) an equivalence between the resulting game-theoretic equilibria and the system level design objective and (ii) that the resulting game possesses an inherent structure that can be exploited for distributed learning, e.g., potential games. The control design can then be completed by applying any distributed learning algorithm that guarantees convergence to the game-theoretic equilibrium. One main advantage of this game theoretic approach is that it provides a hierarchical decomposition between the decomposition of the systemic objective (game design) and the specific local decision rules (distributed learning algorithms). This decomposition provides the system designer with tremendous flexibility to meet the design objectives and constraints inherent in a broad class of multiagent systems. Furthermore, in many settings the resulting controllers will be inherently robust to a host of uncertainties including asynchronous clock rates, delays in information, and component failures.

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In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

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The Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is central to stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory, yielding the optimal solution to general problems specified by known dynamics and a specified cost functional. Given the assumption of quadratic cost on the control input, it is well known that the HJB reduces to a particular partial differential equation (PDE). While powerful, this reduction is not commonly used as the PDE is of second order, is nonlinear, and examples exist where the problem may not have a solution in a classical sense. Furthermore, each state of the system appears as another dimension of the PDE, giving rise to the curse of dimensionality. Since the number of degrees of freedom required to solve the optimal control problem grows exponentially with dimension, the problem becomes intractable for systems with all but modest dimension.

In the last decade researchers have found that under certain, fairly non-restrictive structural assumptions, the HJB may be transformed into a linear PDE, with an interesting analogue in the discretized domain of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). The work presented in this thesis uses the linearity of this particular form of the HJB PDE to push the computational boundaries of stochastic optimal control.

This is done by crafting together previously disjoint lines of research in computation. The first of these is the use of Sum of Squares (SOS) techniques for synthesis of control policies. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the stochastic optimal control problem. An SOS relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function. It is shown that these results extend to arbitrary parabolic and elliptic PDEs, yielding a novel method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of systems governed by partial differential constraints. Domain decomposition techniques are also made available, allowing for such problems to be solved via parallelization and low-order polynomials.

The optimization-based SOS technique is then contrasted with the Separated Representation (SR) approach from the applied mathematics community. The technique allows for systems of equations to be solved through a low-rank decomposition that results in algorithms that scale linearly with dimensionality. Its application in stochastic optimal control allows for previously uncomputable problems to be solved quickly, scaling to such complex systems as the Quadcopter and VTOL aircraft. This technique may be combined with the SOS approach, yielding not only a numerical technique, but also an analytical one that allows for entirely new classes of systems to be studied and for stability properties to be guaranteed.

The analysis of the linear HJB is completed by the study of its implications in application. It is shown that the HJB and a popular technique in robotics, the use of navigation functions, sit on opposite ends of a spectrum of optimization problems, upon which tradeoffs may be made in problem complexity. Analytical solutions to the HJB in these settings are available in simplified domains, yielding guidance towards optimality for approximation schemes. Finally, the use of HJB equations in temporal multi-task planning problems is investigated. It is demonstrated that such problems are reducible to a sequence of SOC problems linked via boundary conditions. The linearity of the PDE allows us to pre-compute control policy primitives and then compose them, at essentially zero cost, to satisfy a complex temporal logic specification.

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Energy and sustainability have become one of the most critical issues of our generation. While the abundant potential of renewable energy such as solar and wind provides a real opportunity for sustainability, their intermittency and uncertainty present a daunting operating challenge. This thesis aims to develop analytical models, deployable algorithms, and real systems to enable efficient integration of renewable energy into complex distributed systems with limited information.

The first thrust of the thesis is to make IT systems more sustainable by facilitating the integration of renewable energy into these systems. IT represents the fastest growing sectors in energy usage and greenhouse gas pollution. Over the last decade there are dramatic improvements in the energy efficiency of IT systems, but the efficiency improvements do not necessarily lead to reduction in energy consumption because more servers are demanded. Further, little effort has been put in making IT more sustainable, and most of the improvements are from improved "engineering" rather than improved "algorithms". In contrast, my work focuses on developing algorithms with rigorous theoretical analysis that improve the sustainability of IT. In particular, this thesis seeks to exploit the flexibilities of cloud workloads both (i) in time by scheduling delay-tolerant workloads and (ii) in space by routing requests to geographically diverse data centers. These opportunities allow data centers to adaptively respond to renewable availability, varying cooling efficiency, and fluctuating energy prices, while still meeting performance requirements. The design of the enabling algorithms is however very challenging because of limited information, non-smooth objective functions and the need for distributed control. Novel distributed algorithms are developed with theoretically provable guarantees to enable the "follow the renewables" routing. Moving from theory to practice, I helped HP design and implement industry's first Net-zero Energy Data Center.

The second thrust of this thesis is to use IT systems to improve the sustainability and efficiency of our energy infrastructure through data center demand response. The main challenges as we integrate more renewable sources to the existing power grid come from the fluctuation and unpredictability of renewable generation. Although energy storage and reserves can potentially solve the issues, they are very costly. One promising alternative is to make the cloud data centers demand responsive. The potential of such an approach is huge.

To realize this potential, we need adaptive and distributed control of cloud data centers and new electricity market designs for distributed electricity resources. My work is progressing in both directions. In particular, I have designed online algorithms with theoretically guaranteed performance for data center operators to deal with uncertainties under popular demand response programs. Based on local control rules of customers, I have further designed new pricing schemes for demand response to align the interests of customers, utility companies, and the society to improve social welfare.

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In this work we chiefly deal with two broad classes of problems in computational materials science, determining the doping mechanism in a semiconductor and developing an extreme condition equation of state. While solving certain aspects of these questions is well-trodden ground, both require extending the reach of existing methods to fully answer them. Here we choose to build upon the framework of density functional theory (DFT) which provides an efficient means to investigate a system from a quantum mechanics description.

Zinc Phosphide (Zn3P2) could be the basis for cheap and highly efficient solar cells. Its use in this regard is limited by the difficulty in n-type doping the material. In an effort to understand the mechanism behind this, the energetics and electronic structure of intrinsic point defects in zinc phosphide are studied using generalized Kohn-Sham theory and utilizing the Heyd, Scuseria, and Ernzerhof (HSE) hybrid functional for exchange and correlation. Novel 'perturbation extrapolation' is utilized to extend the use of the computationally expensive HSE functional to this large-scale defect system. According to calculations, the formation energy of charged phosphorus interstitial defects are very low in n-type Zn3P2 and act as 'electron sinks', nullifying the desired doping and lowering the fermi-level back towards the p-type regime. Going forward, this insight provides clues to fabricating useful zinc phosphide based devices. In addition, the methodology developed for this work can be applied to further doping studies in other systems.

Accurate determination of high pressure and temperature equations of state is fundamental in a variety of fields. However, it is often very difficult to cover a wide range of temperatures and pressures in an laboratory setting. Here we develop methods to determine a multi-phase equation of state for Ta through computation. The typical means of investigating thermodynamic properties is via ’classical’ molecular dynamics where the atomic motion is calculated from Newtonian mechanics with the electronic effects abstracted away into an interatomic potential function. For our purposes, a ’first principles’ approach such as DFT is useful as a classical potential is typically valid for only a portion of the phase diagram (i.e. whatever part it has been fit to). Furthermore, for extremes of temperature and pressure quantum effects become critical to accurately capture an equation of state and are very hard to capture in even complex model potentials. This requires extending the inherently zero temperature DFT to predict the finite temperature response of the system. Statistical modelling and thermodynamic integration is used to extend our results over all phases, as well as phase-coexistence regions which are at the limits of typical DFT validity. We deliver the most comprehensive and accurate equation of state that has been done for Ta. This work also lends insights that can be applied to further equation of state work in many other materials.

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Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.