A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Use of nutritional complete supplements in older adults with dementia: systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical outcomes

Background & Aims: Malnutrition is prevalent in people diagnosed with dementia however ensuring adequate oral intake within this group is often problematic. It is important to determine whether providing nutritionally complete oral nutritional supplements (ONS) drinks is an effective way of improving clinical outcomes for older people with dementia. This paper systematically reviewed clinical, wellbeing and nutritional outcomes in people with long-term cognitive impairment. Methods: The CINAHL, Medline and EMBASE databases were searched from their inception until January 2012. Reference lists of the included papers, foreign language papers and review articles obtained were manually searched. Results: Twelve articles were included in the review containing 1076 people in the supplement groups (intervention) and 748 people in the control groups. Meta-analysis shows there was a significant improvement in weight (p=<0.0001), Body Mass Index (BMI) (p=<0.0001) and cognition at 6.5+/-3.9 month follow up (p=0.002) when supplements were given compared to the control group. Conclusions: Providing ONS drinks has a positive effect on weight gain and cognition at follow up in older people with dementia. Additional research is required in both comparing nutritional supplements to vitamin/mineral tablets and high protein/calorie shots and clinical outcomes relevant to hospitalised people with dementia.

Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

The effects of a soft drink tax in the UK

The majority of the UK population is either overweight or obese. Health economists, nutritionists and doctors are calling for the UK to follow the example of other European countries and introduce a tax on soft drinks as a result of the perception that high intakes contribute to diet-related disease. We use a demand model estimated with household-level data on beverage purchases in the UK to investigate the effects of a tax on soft drink consumption. The model is a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, and censoring is handled by applying a double hurdle. Separate models are estimated for low, moderate and high consumers to allow for a differential impact on consumption between these groups. Applying different hypothetical tax rates, we conclude that understanding the nature of substitute/complement relationships is crucial in designing an effective policy as these relationships differ between consumers depending on their consumption level. The overall impact of a soft drink tax on calorie consumption is likely to be small.

Potential sources of mouth drying in beverages fortified with dairy proteins: a comparison of casein and whey-rich ingredients

Oral nutritional supplement drinks (ONS) are beverages high in dairy proteins that are prescribed to individuals at risk of malnutrition. Consumption of ONS is poor in elderly care facilities, with patients commenting that the sensory attributes of these drinks reduce their enjoyment and willingness to consume. Mouth drying is an attribute of ONS found to build with repeated consumption, which may further limit liking of these products. This study investigated the sources of drying sensations by sequential profiling, with a trained sensory panel rating a range of model milk systems and ONS over repeated sips and during after-effects. Sequential profiling found that fortification of milk with both caseinate and whey protein concentrate significantly increased the perception of mouth drying over repeated consumption, increasing by between 35 and 85% over consumption of 40mL. Enrichment of ONS with either whey protein concentrate or milk protein concentrate to a total protein content of 8.7% (wt/wt) resulted in whey and casein levels of 4.3:4.4% and 1.7:7.0% respectively. The product higher in whey protein was substantially more mouth drying, implying that whey proteins may be the most important contributor to mouth drying in ONS. However, efforts to mask mouth drying of protein-fortified milk by increasing sweetness or fat level were unsuccessful at the levels tested. Increasing the viscosity of protein-fortified milk led to a small but significant reduction in mouth drying. However, this approach was not successful when tested within complete ONS. Further analysis is required into the mechanism of protein-derived mouth drying to mask negative sensations and improve the enjoyment and consumption of protein-rich ONS.

A pilot study investigating the effects of a single dose of a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink on memory in 8-10 year old children

Recent evidence from animal and adult human subjects has demonstrated potential benefits to cognition from flavonoid supplementation. This study aimed to investigate whether these cognitive benefits extended to a sample of school-aged children. Using a cross-over design, with a wash out of at least seven days between drinks, fourteen 8-10 year old children consumed either a flavonoid-rich blueberry drink or matched vehicle. Two hours after consumption, subjects completed a battery of five cognitive tests comprising the Go-NoGo, Stroop, Rey’s Auditory Verbal Learning Task, Object Location Task, and a Visual N-back. In comparison to vehicle, the blueberry drink produced significant improvements in the delayed recall of a previously learned list of words, showing for the first time a cognitive benefit for acute flavonoid intervention in children. However, performance on a measure of proactive interference indicated that the blueberry intervention led to a greater negative impact of previously memorised words on the encoding of a set of new words. There was no benefit of our blueberry intervention for measures of attention, response inhibition or visuo-spatial memory. While findings are mixed, the improvements in delayed recall found in this pilot study suggest that, following acute flavonoid-rich blueberry interventions, school aged children encode memory items more effectively.

Chronic consumption of flavanone-rich orange juice is associated with cognitive benefits: an 8-wk randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in healthy older adults

Background: Research indicates that chronic consumption of flavonoids is associated with cognitive benefits in adults with mild cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative disease, although, there has been no such studies in healthy older adults. Furthermore, the effects of commonly consumed orange juice flavanones on cognitive function remain unexplored. Objective: To investigate whether eight weeks of daily flavanone-rich orange juice consumption was beneficial for cognitive function in healthy older adults. Design: High flavanone (HF: 305mg) 100% orange juice and equicaloric low flavanone (LF: 37mg) orange flavored cordial (500ml) were consumed daily for eight weeks by thirty seven healthy older adults (mean age 67 years) according to a crossover, double blind, randomized design separated by a four week washout. Cognitive function, mood and blood pressure were assessed at baseline and follow up with standardized validated tests. Results: Global cognitive function was significantly better following eight week consumption of flavanone-rich juice relative to eight week consumption of the low flavanone control. No significant effects on mood or blood pressure were observed. Conclusions: Chronic daily consumption of flavanone-rich 100% orange juice over eight weeks is beneficial for cognitive function in healthy older adults. The potential for flavanone-rich foods and drinks to attenuate cognitive decline in ageing and the mechanisms which underlie these effects should be investigated.

Endothelial function and insulin sensitivity during acute non-esterified fatty acid elevation: effects of fat composition and gender

Background and Aims: We have reported that adverse effects on flow-mediated dilation of an acute elevation of non-esterified fatty acids rich in saturated fat (SFA) are reversed following addition of long-chain (LC) n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and hypothesised that these effects may be mediated through alterations in insulin signalling pathways. In a subgroup, we explored the effects of raised NEFA enriched with SFA, with or without LC n-3 PUFA, on whole body insulin sensitivity (SI) and responsiveness of the endothelium to insulin infusion. Methods and Results: Thirty adults (mean age 27.8 y, BMI 23.2 kg/m2) consumed oral fat loads on separate occasions with continuous heparin infusion to elevate NEFA between 60-390 min. For the final 150 min, a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp was performed, whilst FMD and circulating markers of endothelial function were measured at baseline, pre-clamp (240 min) and post-clamp (390 min). NEFA elevation during the SFA-rich drinks was associated with impaired FMD (P=0.027) whilst SFA+LC n-3 PUFA improved FMD at 240 min (P=0.003). In males, insulin infusion attenuated the increase in FMD with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA (P=0.049), with SI 10% greater with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA than SFA (P=0.041). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that NEFA composition during acute elevation influences both FMD and SI, with some indication of a difference by gender. However our findings are not consistent with the hypothesis that the effects of fatty acids on endothelial function and SI operate through a common pathway. Trial registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01351324.

The effect of flavanol-rich cocoa on cerebral perfusion in healthy older adults during conscious resting state: a placebo controlled, crossover, acute trial

Rationale: There has recently been increasing interest in the potential of flavanols, plant derived compounds found in foods such as fruit and vegetables, to ameliorate age-related cognitive decline. Research suggests that cocoa flavanols improve memory and learning, possibly as a result of their anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective effects. These effects may be mediated by increased cerebral blood flow (CBF), thus stimulating neuronal function. Objectives: The present study employed arterial spin labelling (ASL) functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) to explore the effect of a single acute dose of cocoa flavanols on regional CBF. Methods: CBF was measured pre and post consumption of low (23mg) or high (494mg) 330ml equicaloric flavanol drinks matched for caffeine, theobromine, taste and appearance according to a randomised counterbalanced crossover double-blind design in eight males and ten females, aged 50-65 years. Changes in perfusion from pre to post consumption were calculated as a function of each drink. Results: Significant increases in regional perfusion across the brain were observed following consumption of the high flavanol drink relative to the low flavanol drink, particularly in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the central opercular cortex of the parietal lobe. Conclusions: Consumption of cocoa flavanol improves regional cerebral perfusion in older adults. This provides evidence for a possible acute mechanism by which cocoa flavanols are associated with benefits for cognitive performance.

Flavonoid-rich orange juice is associated with acute improvements in cognitive function in healthy middle-aged males

Purpose: Epidemiological evidence suggests that chronic consumption of fruit based flavonoids is associated with cognitive benefits, however, the acute effects of flavonoid rich drinks on cognitive function in the immediate postprandial period requires examination. The objective was to investigate whether consumption of flavonoid rich orange juice is associated with acute cognitive benefits over six hours in healthy middle-aged adults. Methods: Males aged 30-65 consumed a 240ml flavonoid rich (FR) orange juice (272mg) and a calorie matched placebo in a randomized, double-blind, counterbalanced order on two days separated by a two week washout. Cognitive function and subjective mood were assessed at baseline (prior to drink consumption) and 2hrs and 6hrs post consumption. The cognitive battery included eight individual cognitive tests. A standardized breakfast was consumed prior to the baseline measures, and a standardized lunch was consumed 3hrs post drink consumption. Results: Change from baseline analysis revealed that performance on tests of executive function and psychomotor speed was significantly better following the FR drink compared to the placebo. The effects for objective cognitive function were supported by significant benefits for subjective alertness following the FR drink relative to the placebo. Conclusions: These data demonstrate that consumption of flavonoid rich orange juice can acutely enhance objective and subjective cognition over the course of six hours in healthy middle-aged adults.

Cognitive effects following acute wild blueberry supplementation in 7 – 10 year old children

Purpose: Previously, anthocyanin-rich blueberry treatments have shown positive effects on cognition in both animals and human adults. However, little research has considered whether these benefits transfer to children. Here we describe an acute time-course and dose–response investigation considering whether these cognitive benefits extend to children. Methods: Using a double-blind cross-over design, on three occasions children (n = 21; 7–10 years) consumed placebo (vehicle) or blueberry drinks containing 15 or 30 g freeze-dried wild blueberry (WBB) powder. A cognitive battery including tests of verbal memory, word recognition, response interference, response inhibition and levels of processing was performed at baseline, and 1.15, 3 and 6 h following treatment. Results: Significant WBB-related improvements included final immediate recall at 1.15 h, delayed word recognition sustained over each period, and accuracy on cognitively demanding incongruent trials in the interference task at 3h. Importantly, across all measures, cognitive performance improved, consistent with a dose–response model, with the best performance following 30 g WBB and the worst following vehicle. Conclusion: Findings demonstrate WBB-related cognitive improvements in 7- to 10-year-old children. These effects would seem to be particularly sensitive to the cognitive demand of task.