Calibrating flood inundation models: identifying and addressing uncertainty in satellite observed flood extents

Improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery have enabled extraction of water surface elevations at the margins of the flood. Comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations provides a new means for calibrating and validating flood inundation models, however the uncertainty in this observed data has yet to be addressed. Here a flood inundation model is calibrated using a probabilistic treatment of the observed data. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to determine an outline of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, using a 12.5m ERS-1 image. Points at approximately 100m intervals along this outline are selected, and the water surface elevation recorded as the LiDAR DEM elevation at each point. With a planar water surface from the gauged upstream to downstream water elevations as an approximation, the water surface elevations at points along this flooded extent are compared to their ‘expected’ value. The pattern of errors between the two show a roughly normal distribution, however when plotted against coordinates there is obvious spatial autocorrelation. The source of this spatial dependency is investigated by comparing errors to the slope gradient and aspect of the LiDAR DEM. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the flood event is set-up to investigate the effect of observed data uncertainty on the calibration of flood inundation models. Multiple simulations are run using different combinations of friction parameters, from which the optimum parameter set will be selected. For each simulation a T-test is used to quantify the fit between modelled and observed water surface elevations. The points chosen for use in this T-test are selected based on their error. The criteria for selection enables evaluation of the sensitivity of the choice of optimum parameter set to uncertainty in the observed data. This work explores the observed data in detail and highlights possible causes of error. The identification of significant error (RMSE = 0.8m) between approximate expected and actual observed elevations from the remotely sensed data emphasises the limitations of using this data in a deterministic manner within the calibration process. These limitations are addressed by developing a new probabilistic approach to using the observed data.

Harmonic force fields from scaled SCF calculations: Program ASYM40

We report an extended version of our normal coordinate program ASYM40, which may be used to transform Cartesian force constants from ab initio calculations to a force field in nonredundant internal (symmetry) coordinates. When experimental data are available, scale factors for the theoretical force field may then be optimized by least-squares refinement. The alternative of refining an empirical force field to fit a wide variety of data, as with the previous version ASYM20, has been retained. We compare the results of least-squares refinement of the full harmonic force field with least-squares refinement of only the scale factors for an SCF calculated force field and conclude that the latter approach may be useful for large molecules where more sophisticated calculations are impractical. The refinement of scale factors for a theoretical force field is also useful when there are only limited spectroscopic data. The program will accept ab initio calculated force fields from any program that presents Cartesian force constants as output. The program is available through Quantum Chemistry Program Exchange.

Anharmonic force constant calculations

The relationship of the anharmonic force constants in curvilinear internal coordinates to the observed vibration-rotation spectrum of a molecule is reviewed. A simplified method of setting up the required non-linear coordinate transformations is described: this makes use of an / tensor, which is a straightforward generalization of the / matrix used in the customary description of harmonic force constant calculations. General formulae for the / tensor elements, in terms of the familiar L matrix elements, are presented. The use of non-linear symmetry coordinates and redundancies are described. Sample calculations on the water and ammonia molecules are reported.

Vibrational intensities VI: ethylene and its deutero-isotopes

Absolute intensity measurements have been made on the fundamental vibrations of ethylene and four of its deuteroisotopes. The bands were pressure broadened with nitrogen at 50 atmos, and the intensities were determined by the method of Wilson and Wells except that the observed optical density was integrated against logv rather than v. Normal coordinates have been calculated, and the intensities have been interpreted in terms of quantities (∂p/∂Si) giving the change in dipole moment with respect to each internal symmetry coordinate. Data from the different isotopic species have been used to eliminate ambiguities in the interpretation. Effective bond moments are calculated for each symmetry coordinate.

Vibration–rotation variational calculations: precise results on HCN up to 25 000 cm−1

Variation calculations of the vibration–rotation energy levels of many isotopomers of HCN are reported, for J=0, 1, and 2, extending up to approximately 8 quanta of each of the stretching vibrations and 14 quanta of the bending mode. The force field, which is represented as a polynomial expansion in Morse coordinates for the bond stretches and even powers of the angle bend, has been refined by least squares to fit simultaneously all observed data on the Σ and Π state vibrational energies, and the Σ state rotational constants, for both HCN and DCN. The observed vibrational energies are fitted to roughly ±0.5 cm−1, and the rotational constants to roughly ±0.0001 cm−1. The force field has been used to predict the vibration rotation spectra of many isotopomers of HCN up to 25 000 cm−1. The results are consistent with the axis‐switching assignments of some weak overtone bands reported recently by Jonas, Yang, and Wodtke, and they also fit and provide the assignment for recent observations by Romanini and Lehmann of very weak absorption bands above 20 000 cm−1.

Microwave spectrum of 2-aminopyridine

The microwave spectra of 2-aminopyridine-NH2, -ND2, and of both of the two possible -NHD molecules have been observed and assigned in the 0+ vibrational state of the amino group inversion vibration; the assignment for three of the molecules in the 0− state is also made. From intensity measurements the 0+-0− splitting is estimated to be 135 ± 25 cm−1 for the -NH2 molecule and 95 ± 30 cm−1 for the -ND2 molecule. The rotational constants are interpreted in terms of a structure in which the amino group is bent about 32° out of the molecular plane, the c coordinates of the two amino H atoms being 0.21 and 0.28 Å. Stark effect measurements give a dipole moment of about 0.9 D which is almost entirely in the b axis, and which changes quite significantly between the 0+ and 0− states.

Vibrational intensities VII: ethane and ethane-d6

Absolute intensity measurements have been made on the fundamental vibrations of C2H6 and C2D6, using the extrapolation method of Wilson and Wells and using nitrogen at pressures up to 50 atmospheres to broaden the bands. The absorption coefficient was integrated against the logarithm of the frequency. Normal coordinates were calculated from the potential function of Hansen and Dennison, and were used to interpret the results in terms of quantities (∂p/∂Si) giving the change of dipole moment with respect to the symmetry coordinates Si. Consistency of data between the isotopes was used both to eliminate ambiguities in the interpretation, and as a criterion in separating overlapping pairs of absorption bands. The results have been interpreted in terms of bond effective moments.

General derivative relations for anharmonic force fields

The brace notation, introduced by Allen and Csaszar (1993, J. chem. Phys., 98, 2983), provides a simple and compact way to deal with derivatives of arbitrary non-tensorial quantities. One of its main advantages is that it builds the permutational symmetry of the derivatives directly into the formalism. The brace notation is applied to formulate the general nth-order Cartesian derivatives of internal coordinates, and to provide closed forms for general, nth-order transformation equations of anharmonic force fields, expressed as Taylor series, from internal to Cartesian or normal coordinate spaces.

The two-dimensional anharmonic oscillator I: vibration-rotation constants of fulminic acid, HCNO

The lowest-wavenumber vibration of HCNO and DCNO, ν5, is known to involve a largeamplitude low-frequency anharmonic bending of the CH bond against the CNO frame. In this paper the anomalous vibrational dependence of the observed rotational constants B(v5, l5), and of the observed l-doubling interactions, is interpreted according to a simple effective vibration-rotation Hamiltonian in which the appropriate vibrational operators are averaged in an anharmonic potential surface over the normal coordinates (Q5x, Q5y). All of the data on both isotopes are interpreted according to a single potential surface having a minimum energy at a slightly bent configuration of the HCN angle ( 170°) with a maximum at the linear configuration about 2 cm−1 higher. The other coefficients in the Hamiltonian are also interpreted in terms of the structure and the harmonic and anharmonic force fields; the substitution structure at the “hypothetical linear configuration” determined in this way gives a CH bond length of 1.060 Å, in contrast to the value 1.027 Å determined from the ground-state rotational constants. We also discuss the difficulties in rationalizing our effective Hamiltonian in terms of more fundamental theory, as well as the success and limitations of its use in practice.

Vibrational intensities VIII: CH3- and CD3- chloride, bromide and iodide

Absolute intensity measurements have been made on the fundamental vibrations of methyl chloride, bromide, and iodide, and their fully deuterated derivatives, by integrating the optical density over the absorption bands. The bands were fully pressure broadened by using up to 80 atmos of foreign gas. Band separations were made graphically. The results are analyzed in terms of the dipole moment derivatives with respect to symmetry coordinates in the molecule, (∂p/∂Si). The data on the different isotopic species are shown to yield consistent results, and this requirement of consistency has also been used as an aid in the analysis. In the E‐class vibrations the signs of the dipole moment derivatives have been determined unambiguously by assuming the permanent dipole to be directed CH3+☒X—.

A potential energy surface for the ground state of formaldehyde, H2CO(1A1)

A model potential energy function for the ground state of H2CO has been derived which covers the whole space of the six internal coordinates. This potential reproduces the experimental energy, geometry and quadratic force field of formaldehyde, and dissociates correctly to all possible atom, diatom and triatom fragments. Thus there are good reasons for believing it to be close to the true potential energy surface except in regions where both hydrogen atoms are close to the oxygen. It leads to the prediction that there should be a metastable singlet hydroxycarbene HCOH which has a planar trans structure and an energy of 2•31 eV above that of equilibrium formaldehyde. The reaction path for dissociation into H2 + CO is predicted to pass through a low symmetry transition state with an activation energy of 4•8 eV. Both of these predictions are in good agreement with recently published ab initio calculations.

ASYM20: a program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations, with a critical review of the theory involved

The theory of harmonic force constant refinement calculations is reviewed, and a general-purpose program for force constant and normal coordinate calculations is described. The program, called ASYM20. is available through Quantum Chemistry Program Exchange. It will work on molecules of any symmetry containing up to 20 atoms and will produce results on a series of isotopomers as desired. The vibrational secular equations are solved in either nonredundant valence internal coordinates or symmetry coordinates. As well as calculating the (harmonic) vibrational wavenumbers and normal coordinates, the program will calculate centrifugal distortion constants, Coriolis zeta constants, harmonic contributions to the α′s. root-mean-square amplitudes of vibration, and other quantities related to gas electron-diffraction studies and thermodynamic properties. The program will work in either a predict mode, in which it calculates results from an input force field, or in a refine mode, in which it refines an input force field by least squares to fit observed data on the quantities mentioned above. Predicate values of the force constants may be included in the data set for a least-squares refinement. The program is written in FORTRAN for use on a PC or a mainframe computer. Operation is mainly controlled by steering indices in the input data file, but some interactive control is also implemented.

Variational calculations of rovibrational states: a precise high-energy potential surface for HCN [and discussion]

We report the results of variational calculations of the rovibrational energy levels of HCN for J = 0, 1 and 2, where we reproduce all the ca. 100 observed vibrational states for all observed isotopic species, with energies up to 18000 cm$^{-1}$, to about $\pm $1 cm$^{-1}$, and the corresponding rotational constants to about $\pm $0.001 cm$^{-1}$. We use a hamiltonian expressed in internal coordinates r$_{1}$, r$_{2}$ and $\theta $, using the exact expression for the kinetic energy operator T obtained by direct transformation from the cartesian representation. The potential energy V is expressed as a polynomial expansion in the Morse coordinates y$_{i}$ for the bond stretches and the interbond angle $\theta $. The basis functions are built as products of appropriately scaled Morse functions in the bond-stretches and Legendre or associated Legendre polynomials of cos $\theta $ in the angle bend, and we evaluate matrix elements by Gauss quadrature. The hamiltonian matripx is factorized using the full rovibrational symmetry, and the basis is contracted to an optimized form; the dimensions of the final hamiltonian matrix vary from 240 $\times $ 240 to 1000 $\times $ 1000.We believe that our calculation is converged to better than 1 cm$^{-1}$ at 18 000 cm$^{-1}$. Our potential surface is expressed in terms of 31 parameters, about half of which have been refined by least squares to optimize the fit to the experimental data. The advantages and disadvantages and the future potential of calculations of this type are discussed.

Friends or relatives? Phylogenetics and species delimitation in the controversial European orchid Genus ophrys

Background and Aims Highly variable, yet possibly convergent, morphology and lack of sequence variation have severely hindered production of a robust phylogenetic framework for the genus Ophrys. The aim of this study is to produce this framework as a basis for more rigorous species delimitation and conservation recommendations. Methods Nuclear and plastid DNA sequencing and amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) were performed on 85 accessions of Ophrys, spanning the full range of species aggregates currently recognized. Data were analysed using a combination of parsimony and Bayesian tree-building techniques and by principal coordinates analysis. Key Results Complementary phylogenetic analyses and ordinations using nuclear, plastid and AFLP datasets identify ten genetically distinct groups (six robust) within the genus that may in turn be grouped into three sections (treated as subgenera by some authors). Additionally, genetic evidence is provided for a close relationship between the O. tenthredinifera, O. bombyliflora and O. speculum groups. The combination of these analytical techniques provides new insights into Ophrys systematics, notably recognition of the novel O. umbilicata group. Conclusions Heterogeneous copies of the nuclear ITS region show that some putative Ophrys species arose through hybridization rather than divergent speciation. The supposedly highly specific pseudocopulatory pollination syndrome of Ophrys is demonstrably 'leaky', suggesting that the genus has been substantially over-divided at the species level.

Rovibrational energy levels of hydrogen peroxide, studied by MULTIMODE with a reaction path Hamiltonian

Recently. Carter and Handy [J. Chem. Phys. 113 (2000) 987] have introduced the theory of the reaction path Hamiltonian (RPH) [J. Chem. Phys. 72 (1980) 99] into the variational scheme MULTIMODE, for the calculation of the J = 0 vibrational levels of polyatomic molecules, which have a single large-amplitude motion. In this theory the reaction path coordinate s becomes the fourth dimension of the moment-of-inertia tensor, and must be treated separately from the remaining 3N - 7 normal coordinates in the MULTIMODE program. In the modified program, complete integration is performed over s, and the M-mode MULTIMODE coupling approximation for the evaluation of the matrix elements applies only to the 3N - 7 normal coordinates. In this paper the new algorithm is extended to the calculation of rotational-vibration energy levels (i.e. J > 0) with the RPH, following from our analogous implementation for rigid molecules [Theoret. Chem. Acc. 100 (1998) 191]. The full theory is given, and all extra terms have been included to give the exact kinetic energy operator. In order to validate the new code, we report studies on hydrogen peroxide (H2O2), where the reaction path is equivalent to torsional motion. H2O2 has previously been studied variationally using a valence coordinate Hamiltonian; complete agreement for calculated rovibrational levels is obtained between the previous results and those from the new code, using the identical potential surface. MULTIMODE is now able to calculate rovibrational levels for polyatomic molecules which have one large-amplitude motion. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.