A sequential procedure for comparing two experimental treatments with a control

A procedure is described in which patients are randomized between two experimental treatments and a control. At a series of interim analyses, each experimental treatment is compared with control. One of the experimental treatments might then be found sufficiently superior to the control for it to be declared the best treatment, and the trial stopped. Alternatively, experimental treatments might be eliminated from further consideration at any stage. It is shown how the procedure can be conducted while controlling overall error probabilities. Data concerning evaluation of different doses of riluzole in the treatment of motor neurone disease are used for illustration.

Simultaneous optical and radar signatures of poleward-moving auroral forms

Dayside poleward moving auroral forms (PMAFs) were detected between 06:30 and 07:00 UT on December 16, 1998, by the meridian scanning photometer and the all-sky camera at Ny Alesund, Svalbard. Simultaneous SuperDARN HF radar measurements permitted the study of the associated ionospheric velocity pattern. A good general agreement is observed between the location and movement of velocity enhancements (flow channels) and the PMAFs. Clear signatures of equatorward flow were detected in the vicinity of PMAFs. This flow is believed to be the signature of a return flow outside the reconnected Aux tube, as predicted by the Southwood model. The simulated signatures of this model reproduce globally the measured signatures, and differences with the experimental data can be explained by the simplifications of the model. Proposed schemes of the flow modification due to the presence of several flow channels and the modification of cusp and region 1 field-aligned currents at the time of sporadic reconnection events are shown to fit well with the observations.

A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.