Forecasting global ENSO-related climate anomalies

Long-range global climate forecasts have been made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of the wintertime 500 mb height, surface air temperature and precipitation for seven large climatic events of the 1970–1990s by this two-tiered technique agree well in general with observations over many regions of the globe. The levels of agreement are high enough in some regions to have practical utility.

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Land use intensity and trees on farms in Malawi

Rapidly increasing population densities in Malawi have put a huge strain on the existing agricultural land and the surrounding woodland. Smallholder agriculture is the dominant economic activity of Malawi’s rural population and many farmers have been forced to cultivate marginal lands with less fertile soils, making conditions much more difficult to grow crops. Natural woodland is under increasing pressure from the opening of new lands for cultivation and the increased demand for firewood, timber and other woody resources, with rural households historically obtaining most of their complementary inputs and saleable commodities from nearby areas of forest (Arnold, 1997a). Despite this increasing pressure, woodlands are not being cleared indiscriminately; selected indigenous species are left standing in fields and around households. These are joined by exotic species that are planted and maintained. These trees provide products and services that are vital, yielding food, firewood, building materials and medicine, replenishing soil fertility and protecting against soil erosion. Following a Boserupian approach, this study attempts to establish the reality of a trajectory of enhanced on-farm tree planting and management as population pressure mounts and as part of a more general process of agricultural intensification. The study examines the combination of factors (social, economic, political and environmental) that either stimulate or discourage on-farm tree planting on smallholdings in Malawi, highlighting how woodland resource use changes over a gradient of land use intensity. This study gives a detailed insight into the way that tree planting and management in the smallholder farming system in Malawi works and identifies a trend of increased tree planting/management alongside an increase in agricultural intensification. However, there is no single ‘path’ of intensification; the link between agricultural change and tree planting is complex and there are many trajectories of intensification that a farmer may follow, dependent on his/her social or economic circumstances. The study recommends that agroforestry interventions give rigorous consideration to the needs of the local community, and the suitability of trees to address those needs, before embarking on programmes that advocate tree planting and management as a panacea.

Codon and mRNA sequence optimization of microdystrophin transgenes improves expression and physiological outcome in dystrophic mdx mice following AAV2/8 gene transfer

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is a fatal muscle-wasting disorder. Lack of dystrophin compromises the integrity of the sarcolemma and results in myofibers that are highly prone to contraction-induced injury. Recombinant adenoassociated virus (rAAV)-mediated dystrophin gene transfer strategies to muscle for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) have been limited by the small cloning capacity of rAAV vectors and high titers necessary to achieve efficient systemic gene transfer. In this study, we assess the impact of codon optimization on microdystrophin (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT) expression and function in the mdx mouse and compare the function of two different configurations of codon-optimized microdystrophin genes (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT and ΔR4-R23/ΔCT) under the control of a muscle-restrictive promoter (Spc5-12). Codon optimization of microdystrophin significantly increases levels of microdystrophin mRNA and protein after intramuscular and systemic administration of plasmid DNA or rAAV2/8. Physiological assessment demonstrates that codon optimization of ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT results in significant improvement in specific force, but does not improve resistance to eccentric contractions compared with noncodon-optimized ΔAB/ R3-R18/ΔCT. However, codon-optimized microdystrophin ΔR4-R23/ΔCT completely restored specific force generation and provided substantial protection from contraction-induced injury. These results demonstrate that codon optimization of microdystrophin under the control of a muscle-specific promoter can significantly improve expression levels such that reduced titers of rAAV vectors will be required for efficient systemic administration.

Application of hydrogen-bond propensity calculations to an indomethacin–nicotinamide (1:1) co-crystal

The crystal structure of an indomethacin–nicotinamide (1 : 1) cocrystal produced by milling has been determined from laboratory powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) data. The hydrogen bonding motifs observed in the structure represent one of the most probable of all the possible combinations of donors and acceptors in the constituent molecules.

Doing more harm than good? Community based natural resource management and the neglect of local institutions in policy development

Approaches to natural resource management emphasise the importance of involving local people and institutions in order to build capacity, limit costs, and achieve environmental sustainability. Governments worldwide, often encouraged by international donors, have formulated devolution policies and legal instruments that provide an enabling environment for devolved natural resource management. However, implementation of these policies reveals serious challenges. This article explores the effects of limited involvement of local people and institutions in policy development and implementation. An in-depth study of the Forest Policy of Malawi and Village Forest Areas in the Lilongwe district provides an example of externally driven policy development which seeks to promote local management of natural resources. The article argues that policy which has weak ownership by national government and does not adequately consider the complexity of local institutions, together with the effects of previous initiatives on them, can create a cumulative legacy through which destructive resource use practices and social conflict may be reinforced. In short, poorly developed and implemented community based natural resource management policies can do considerably more harm than good. Approaches are needed that enable the policy development process to embed an in-depth understanding of local institutions whilst incorporating flexibility to account for their location-specific nature. This demands further research on policy design to enable rigorous identification of positive and negative institutions and ex-ante exploration of the likely effects of different policy interventions.

C-slow retimed parallel histogram architectures for consumer imaging devices

A parallel pipelined array of cells suitable for real-time computation of histograms is proposed. The cell architecture builds on previous work obtained via C-slow retiming techniques and can be clocked at 65 percent faster frequency than previous arrays. The new arrays can be exploited for higher throughput particularly when dual data rate sampling techniques are used to operate on single streams of data from image sensors. In this way, the new cell operates on a p-bit data bus which is more convenient for interfacing to camera sensors or to microprocessors in consumer digital cameras.

3D cloud reconstructions: evaluation of scanning radar scan strategy with a view to surface shortwave radiation closure

The ability of six scanning cloud radar scan strategies to reconstruct cumulus cloud fields for radiation study is assessed. Utilizing snapshots of clean and polluted cloud fields from large eddy simulations, an analysis is undertaken of error in both the liquid water path and monochromatic downwelling surface irradiance at 870 nm of the reconstructed cloud fields. Error introduced by radar sensitivity, choice of radar scan strategy, retrieval of liquid water content (LWC), and reconstruction scheme is explored. Given an in␣nitely sensitive radar and perfect LWC retrieval, domain average surface irradiance biases are typically less than 3 W m␣2 ␣m␣1, corresponding to 5–10% of the cloud radiative effect (CRE). However, when using a realistic radar sensitivity of ␣37.5 dBZ at 1 km, optically thin areas and edges of clouds are dif␣cult to detect due to their low radar re-ectivity; in clean conditions, overestimates are of order 10 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~20% of the CRE), but in polluted conditions, where the droplets are smaller, this increases to 10–26 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 (~40–100% of the CRE). Drizzle drops are also problematic; if treated as cloud droplets, reconstructions are poor, leading to large underestimates of 20–46 W m␣2 ␣m␣1 in domain average surface irradiance (~40–80% of the CRE). Nevertheless, a synergistic retrieval approach combining the detailed cloud structure obtained from scanning radar with the droplet-size information and location of cloud base gained from other instruments would potentially make accurate solar radiative transfer calculations in broken cloud possible for the first time.

Evidence of neutral transcriptome evolution in plants

The transcriptome of an organism is its set of gene transcripts (mRNAs) at a defined spatial and temporal locus. Because gene expression is affected markedly by environmental and developmental perturbations, it is widely assumed that transcriptome divergence among taxa represents adaptive phenotypic selection. This assumption has been challenged by neutral theories which propose that stochastic processes drive transcriptome evolution. To test for evidence of neutral transcriptome evolution in plants, we quantified 18 494 gene transcripts in nonsenescent leaves of 14 taxa of Brassicaceae using robust cross-species transcriptomics which includes a two-step physical and in silico-based normalization procedure based on DNA similarity among taxa. Transcriptome divergence correlates positively with evolutionary distance between taxa and with variation in gene expression among samples. Results are similar for pseudogenes and chloroplast genes evolving at different rates. Remarkably, variation in transcript abundance among root-cell samples correlates positively with transcriptome divergence among root tissues and among taxa. Because neutral processes affect transcriptome evolution in plants, many differences in gene expression among or within taxa may be nonfunctional, reflecting ancestral plasticity and founder effects. Appropriate null models are required when comparing transcriptomes in space and time.

Shoot calcium and magnesium concentrations differ between subtaxa, are highly heritable, and associate with potentially pleiotropic loci in Brassica oleracea

Calcium (Ca) and magnesium (Mg) are the most abundant group II elements in both plants and animals. Genetic variation in shoot Ca and shoot Mg concentration (shoot Ca and Mg) in plants can be exploited to biofortify food crops and thereby increase dietary Ca and Mg intake for humans and livestock. We present a comprehensive analysis of within-species genetic variation for shoot Ca and Mg, demonstrating that shoot mineral concentration differs significantly between subtaxa (varietas). We established a structured diversity foundation set of 376 accessions to capture a high proportion of species-wide allelic diversity within domesticated Brassica oleracea, including representation of wild relatives (C genome, 1n = 9) from natural populations. These accessions and 74 modern F-1 hybrid cultivars were grown in glasshouse and field environments. Shoot Ca and Mg varied 2- and 2.3-fold, respectively, and was typically not inversely correlated with shoot biomass, within most subtaxa. The closely related capitata (cabbage) and sabauda (Savoy cabbage) subtaxa consistently had the highest mean shoot Ca and Mg. Shoot Ca and Mg in glasshouse-grown plants was highly correlated with data from the field. To understand and dissect the genetic basis of variation in shoot Ca and Mg, we studied homozygous lines from a segregating B. oleracea mapping population. Shoot Ca and Mg was highly heritable (up to 40). Quantitative trait loci (QTL) for shoot Ca and Mg were detected on chromosomes C2, C6, C7, C8, and, in particular, C9, where QTL accounted for 14 to 55 of the total genetic variance. The presence of QTL on C9 was substantiated by scoring recurrent backcross substitution lines, derived from the same parents. This also greatly increased the map resolution, with strong evidence that a 4-cM region on C9 influences shoot Ca. This region corresponds to a 0.41-Mb region on Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) chromosome 5 that includes 106 genes. There is also evidence that pleiotropic loci on C8 and C9 affect shoot Ca and Mg. Map-based cloning of these loci will reveal how shoot-level phenotypes relate to Ca 21 and Mg 21 uptake and homeostasis at the molecular level.

Shoot zinc (Zn) concentration varies widely within Brassica oleracea L. and is affected by soil Zn and phosphorus (P) levels

The low availability of zinc (Zn) in soils and crops affects dietary Zn intake worldwide. This study sought to determine if the natural genetic variation in shoot Zn concentrations (Zn(shoot)) is sufficient to pursue a crop improvement breeding strategy in a leafy vegetable crop. The gene-pool of Brassica oleracea L. was sampled using a large (n = 376) diversity foundation set (DFS), representing almost all species-wide common allelic variation, and 74 commercial varieties (mostly F(1)). The DFS genotypes were grown at low and high soil phosphorus (P) levels under glasshouse and field conditions, and also in a Zn-deficient soil, with or without Zn-fertilisation, in a glasshouse. Despite the large variation in Zn(shoot) among genotypes, environment had a profound effect on Zn(shoot) The heritability of Zn(shoot) was significant, but relatively low, among 90 doubled-haploid (DH) lines from a mapping population. While several quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with Zn(shoot) occurred on chromosomes C2, C3, C5, C7, and C9, these were generally weak and conditional upon growth conditions. Breeding for Zn(shoot) in B. oleracea is therefore likely to be challenging. Shoot P concentrations increased substantially in all genotypes under low soil Zn conditions. Conversely, only some genotypes had increased Zn(shoot) at low soil P levels. Sufficient natural genetic variation may therefore exist to study some of the interactions between Zn and P nutrition.

Optimising the analysis of transcript data using high density oligonucleotide arrays and genomic DNA-based probe selection

Background: Affymetrix GeneChip arrays are widely used for transcriptomic studies in a diverse range of species. Each gene is represented on a GeneChip array by a probe- set, consisting of up to 16 probe-pairs. Signal intensities across probe- pairs within a probe-set vary in part due to different physical hybridisation characteristics of individual probes with their target labelled transcripts. We have previously developed a technique to study the transcriptomes of heterologous species based on hybridising genomic DNA (gDNA) to a GeneChip array designed for a different species, and subsequently using only those probes with good homology. Results: Here we have investigated the effects of hybridising homologous species gDNA to study the transcriptomes of species for which the arrays have been designed. Genomic DNA from Arabidopsis thaliana and rice (Oryza sativa) were hybridised to the Affymetrix Arabidopsis ATH1 and Rice Genome GeneChip arrays respectively. Probe selection based on gDNA hybridisation intensity increased the number of genes identified as significantly differentially expressed in two published studies of Arabidopsis development, and optimised the analysis of technical replicates obtained from pooled samples of RNA from rice. Conclusion: This mixed physical and bioinformatics approach can be used to optimise estimates of gene expression when using GeneChip arrays.

Shoot yield drives phosphorus use efficiency in Brassica oleracea and correlates with root architecture traits

The environmental and financial costs of using inorganic phosphate fertilizers to maintain crop yield and quality are high. Breeding crops that acquire and use phosphorus (P) more efficiently could reduce these costs. The variation in shoot P concentration (shoot-P) and various measures of P use efficiency (PUE) were quantified among 355 Brassica oleracea L. accessions, 74 current commercial cultivars, and 90 doubled haploid (DH) mapping lines from a reference genetic mapping population. Accessions were grown at two or more external P concentrations in glasshouse experiments; commercial and DH accessions were also grown in replicated field experiments. Within the substantial species-wide diversity observed for shoot-P and various measures of PUE in B. oleracea, current commercial cultivars have greater PUE than would be expected by chance. This may be a consequence of breeding for increased yield, which is a significant component of most measures of PUE, or early establishment. Root development and architecture correlate with PUE; in particular, lateral root number, length, and growth rate. Significant quantitative trait loci associated with shoot-P and PUE occur on chromosomes C3 and C7. These data provide information to initiate breeding programmes to improve PUE in B. oleracea.

Regulatory hotspots are associated with plant gene expression under varying soil phosphorus supply in Brassica rapa

Gene expression is a quantitative trait that can be mapped genetically in structured populations to identify expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL). Genes and regulatory networks underlying complex traits can subsequently be inferred. Using a recently released genome sequence, we have defined cis- and trans-eQTL and their environmental response to low phosphorus (P) availability within a complex plant genome and found hotspots of trans-eQTL within the genome. Interval mapping, using P supply as a covariate, revealed 18,876 eQTL. trans-eQTL hotspots occurred on chromosomes A06 and A01 within Brassica rapa; these were enriched with P metabolism-related Gene Ontology terms (A06) as well as chloroplast-and photosynthesis-related terms (A01). We have also attributed heritability components to measures of gene expression across environments, allowing the identification of novel gene expression markers and gene expression changes associated with low P availability. Informative gene expression markers were used to map eQTL and P use efficiency-related QTL. Genes responsive to P supply had large environmental and heritable variance components. Regulatory loci and genes associated with P use efficiency identified through eQTL analysis are potential targets for further characterization and may have potential for crop improvement.