Identification of fractional-order transfer functions using a step excitation

This brief proposes a new method for the identification of fractional order transfer functions based on the time response resulting from a single step excitation. The proposed method is applied to the identification of a three-dimensional RC network, which can be tailored in terms of topology and composition to emulate real time systems governed by fractional order dynamics. The results are in excellent agreement with the actual network response, yet the identification procedure only requires a small number of coefficients to be determined, demonstrating that the fractional order modelling approach leads to very parsimonious model formulations.

Biodiversity and resilience of ecosystem functions

Accelerating rates of environmental change and the continued loss of global biodiversity threaten functions and services delivered by ecosystems. Much ecosystem monitoring and management is focused on the provision of ecosystem functions and services under current environmental conditions, yet this could lead to inappropriate management guidance and undervaluation of the importance of biodiversity. The maintenance of ecosystem functions and services under substantial predicted future environmental change (i.e., their ‘resilience’) is crucial. Here we identify a range of mechanisms underpinning the resilience of ecosystem functions across three ecological scales. Although potentially less important in the short term, biodiversity, encompassing variation from within species to across landscapes, may be crucial for the longer-term resilience of ecosystem functions and the services that they underpin.

An optimization problem concerning multiplicative functions

In this paper we study the problem of maximizing a quadratic form 〈Ax,x〉 subject to ‖x‖q=1, where A has matrix entries View the MathML source with i,j|k and q≥1. We investigate when the optimum is achieved at a ‘multiplicative’ point; i.e. where x1xmn=xmxn. This turns out to depend on both f and q, with a marked difference appearing as q varies between 1 and 2. We prove some partial results and conjecture that for f multiplicative such that 0

Estimating future bidding performance of competitor bidders in capped tenders

Research in Bid Tender Forecasting Models (BTFM) has been in progress since the 1950s. None of the developed models were easy-to-use tools for effective use by bidding practitioners because the advanced mathematical apparatus and massive data inputs required. This scenario began to change in 2012 with the development of the Smartbid BTFM, a quite simple model that presents a series of graphs that enables any project manager to study competitors using a relatively short historical tender dataset. However, despite the advantages of this new model, so far, it is still necessary to study all the auction participants as an indivisible group; that is, the original BTFM was not devised for analyzing the behavior of a single bidding competitor or a subgroup of them. The present paper tries to solve that flaw and presents a stand-alone methodology useful for estimating future competitors’ bidding behaviors separately.

Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss

The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions-specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience.

Bayesian model comparison with un-normalised likelihoods

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalizing constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes’ factors for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Reverse correlation reveals how observers sample visual information when estimating three-dimensional shape

Human observers exhibit large systematic distance-dependent biases when estimating the three-dimensional (3D) shape of objects defined by binocular image disparities. This has led some to question the utility of disparity as a cue to 3D shape and whether accurate estimation of 3D shape is at all possible. Others have argued that accurate perception is possible, but only with large continuous perspective transformations of an object. Using a stimulus that is known to elicit large distance-dependent perceptual bias (random dot stereograms of elliptical cylinders) we show that contrary to these findings the simple adoption of a more naturalistic viewing angle completely eliminates this bias. Using behavioural psychophysics, coupled with a novel surface-based reverse correlation methodology, we show that it is binocular edge and contour information that allows for accurate and precise perception and that observers actively exploit and sample this information when it is available.

Reproducibility of the online Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire for estimating dietary intakes across Europe

Background: Accurate dietary assessment is key to understanding nutrition-related outcomes and is essential for estimating dietary change in nutrition-based interventions. Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the pan-European reproducibility of the Food4Me food-frequency questionnaire (FFQ) in assessing the habitual diet of adults. Methods: Participantsfromthe Food4Me study, a 6-mo,Internet-based, randomizedcontrolled trial of personalized nutrition conducted in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Greece, and Poland were included. Screening and baseline data (both collected before commencement of the intervention) were used in the present analyses, and participants were includedonly iftheycompleted FFQs at screeningand at baselinewithin a 1-mo timeframebeforethe commencement oftheintervention. Sociodemographic (e.g., sex andcountry) andlifestyle[e.g.,bodymass index(BMI,inkg/m2)and physical activity] characteristics were collected. Linear regression, correlation coefficients, concordance (percentage) in quartile classification, and Bland-Altman plots for daily intakes were used to assess reproducibility. Results: In total, 567 participants (59% female), with a mean 6 SD age of 38.7 6 13.4 y and BMI of 25.4 6 4.8, completed bothFFQswithin 1 mo(mean 6 SD: 19.26 6.2d).Exact plus adjacent classification oftotal energy intakeinparticipants was highest in Ireland (94%) and lowest in Poland (81%). Spearman correlation coefficients (r) in total energy intake between FFQs ranged from 0.50 for obese participants to 0.68 and 0.60 in normal-weight and overweight participants, respectively. Bland-Altman plots showed a mean difference between FFQs of 210 kcal/d, with the agreement deteriorating as energy intakes increased. There was little variation in reproducibility of total energy intakes between sex and age groups. Conclusions: The online Food4Me FFQ was shown to be reproducible across 7 European countries when administered within a 1-mo period to a large number of participants. The results support the utility of the online Food4Me FFQ as a reproducible tool across multiple European populations. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01530139.