A comparison of methods for treatment selection in seamless phase II/III clinical trials incorporating information on short-term endpoints

In an adaptive seamless phase II/III clinical trial interim analysis, data are used for treatment selection, enabling resources to be focused on comparison of more effective treatment(s) with a control. In this paper, we compare two methods recently proposed to enable use of short-term endpoint data for decision-making at the interim analysis. The comparison focuses on the power and the probability of correctly identifying the most promising treatment. We show that the choice of method depends on how well short-term data predict the best treatment, which may be measured by the correlation between treatment effects on short- and long-term endpoints.

Systematic selection of analogue redesign method for forward-type digital power converters

This article proposes a systematic approach to determine the most suitable analogue redesign method to be used for forward-type converters under digital voltage mode control. The focus of the method is to achieve the highest phase margin at the particular switching and crossover frequencies chosen by the designer. It is shown that at high crossover frequencies with respect to switching frequency, controllers designed using backward integration have the largest phase margin; whereas at low crossover frequencies with respect to switching frequency, controllers designed using bilinear integration with pre-warping have the largest phase margins. An algorithm has been developed to determine the frequency of the crossing point where the recommended discretisation method changes. An accurate model of the power stage is used for simulation and experimental results from a Buck converter are collected. The performance of the digital controllers is compared to that of the equivalent analogue controller both in simulation and experiment. Excellent closeness between the simulation and experimental results is presented. This work provides a concrete example to allow academics and engineers to systematically choose a discretisation method.

The influence of anxiety on the initial selection of emotional faces presented in binocular rivalry

Neurocognitive theories of anxiety predict that threat-related information can be evaluated before attentional selection, and can influence behaviour differentially in high anxious compared to low anxious individuals. We investigate this further by presenting emotional and neutral faces in an adapted binocular rivalry paradigm. We show that the initial selection of emotional faces presented in binocular rivalry is highly influenced by self-reported state and trait anxiety-level. Heightened anxiety was correlated with increased perception of angry and fearful faces, and decreased perception of happy expressions. These results are consistent with recent evidence of involuntary selection of threat in anxiety.

Effects of organic and conventional fertilizer treatments on host selection by the aphid parasitoid Diaeretiella rapae

The type and quantity of fertilizer supplied to a crop will differ between organic and conventional farming practices. Altering the type of fertilizer a plant is provided with can influence a plant’s foliar nitrogen levels, as well as the composition and concentration of defence compounds, such as glucosinolates. Many natural enemies of insect herbivores can respond to headspace volatiles emitted by the herbivores’ host plant in response to herbivory. We propose that manipulating fertilizer type may also influence the headspace volatile profiles of plants, and as a result, the tritrophic interactions that occur between plants, their insect pests and those pests’ natural enemies. Here, we investigate a tritrophic system consisting of cabbage plants, Brassica oleracea, a parasitoid, Diaeretiella rapae, and one of its hosts, the specialist cabbage aphid Brevicoryne brassicae. Brassica oleracea plants were provided with either no additional fertilization or one of three types of fertilizer: Nitram (ammonium nitrate), John Innes base or organic chicken manure. We investigated whether these changes would alter the rate of parasitism of aphids on those plants and whether any differences in parasitism could be explained by differences in attractivity of the plants to D. rapae or attack rate of aphids by D. rapae. In free-choice experiments, there were significant differences in the percentage of B. brassicae parasitized by D. rapae between B. oleracea plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. In a series of dual-choice Y-tube olfactometry experiments, D. rapae females discriminated between B. brassicae-infested and undamaged plants, but parasitoids did not discriminate between similarly infested plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. Correspondingly, in attack rate experiments, there were no differences in the rate that D. rapae attacked B. brassicae on B. oleracea plants grown in different fertilizer treatments. These findings are of direct relevance to sustainable and conventional farming practices.

Olfactory selection of Plantago lanceolata by snails declines with seedling age

Background and Aims Despite recent recognition that (1) plant–herbivore interactions during the establishment phase, (2) ontogenetic shifts in resource allocation and (3) herbivore response to plant volatile release are each pivotal to a comprehensive understanding of plant defence, no study has examined how herbivore olfactory response varies during seedling ontogeny. Methods Using a Y-tube olfactometer we examined snail (Helix aspersa) olfactory response to pellets derived from macerated Plantago lanceolata plants harvested at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 weeks of age to test the hypothesis that olfactory selection of plants by a generalist herbivore varies with plant age. Plant volatiles were collected for 10 min using solid-phase microextraction technique on 1- and 8-week-old P. lanceolata pellets and analysed by gas chromatography coupled with a mass spectrometer. Key Results Selection of P. lanceolata was strongly negatively correlated with increasing age; pellets derived from 1-week-old seedlings were three times more likely to be selected as those from 8-week-old plants. Comparison of plant selection experiments with plant volatile profiles from GC/MS suggests that patterns of olfactory selection may be linked to ontogenetic shifts in concentrations of green leaf volatiles and ethanol (and its hydrolysis derivatives). Conclusions Although confirmatory of predictions made by contemporary plant defence theory, this is the first study to elucidate a link between seedling age and olfactory selection by herbivores. As a consequence, this study provides a new perspective on the ontogenetic expression of seedling defence, and the role of seedling herbivores, particularly terrestrial molluscs, as selective agents in temperate plant communities.

The IT outsourcing market-place: vendors and their selection

This paper focuses on outsourcing vendors, their characteristics and the vendor selection process. It draws on current research and two research studies, one specifi- cally examining outsourcing vendors and the other examining vendor-client issues. We first outline the development of the market for the outsourcing of information technology/information systems services and activities, then detail the characteristics of different types of vendor companies and their competitive positions, before providing a client perspective to the issue of vendor selection.

Flexible selection of a single treatment incorporating short-term endpoint information in a phase II/III clinical trial

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is selected at an interim analysis have been the focus of much recent research interest. Many of the methods proposed are based on the group sequential approach. This paper considers designs of this type in which the treatment selection can be based on short-term endpoint information for more patients than have primary endpoint data available. We show that in such a case, the familywise type I error rate may be inflated if previously proposed group sequential methods are used and the treatment selection rule is not specified in advance. A method is proposed to avoid this inflation by considering the treatment selection that maximises the conditional error given the data available at the interim analysis. A simulation study is reported that illustrates the type I error rate inflation and compares the power of the new approach with two other methods: a combination testing approach and a group sequential method that does not use the short-term endpoint data, both of which also strongly control the type I error rate. The new method is also illustrated through application to a study in Alzheimer's disease. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-attribute collaborative filtering recommendation based on improved group decision-making

Currently researchers in the field of personalized recommendations bear little consideration on users' interest differences in resource attributes although resource attribute is usually one of the most important factors in determining user preferences. To solve this problem, the paper builds an evaluation model of user interest based on resource multi-attributes, proposes a modified Pearson-Compatibility multi-attribute group decision-making algorithm, and introduces an algorithm to solve the recommendation problem of k-neighbor similar users. Considering the characteristics of collaborative filtering recommendation, the paper addresses the issues on the preference differences of similar users, incomplete values, and advanced converge of the algorithm. Thus the paper realizes multi-attribute collaborative filtering. Finally, the effectiveness of the algorithm is proved by an experiment of collaborative recommendation among multi-users based on virtual environment. The experimental results show that the algorithm has a high accuracy on predicting target users' attribute preferences and has a strong anti-interference ability on deviation and incomplete values.

Eventive and stative passives and copula selection in Canadian and American heritage speaker Spanish

Spanish captures the difference between eventive and stative passives via an obligatory choice between two copula; verbal passives take the copula ser and adjectival passives take the copula estar. In this study, we compare and contrast US and Canadian heritage speakers of Spanish on their knowledge of this difference in relation to copula choice in Spanish. The backgrounds of the target groups differ significantly from each other in that only one of them, the Canadian group, has grown up in a societal multilingual environment. We discuss the results as being supportive of two non-mutually exclusive explanation factors: (a) French facilitates (bootstraps) the acquisition of eventive and stative passives and/or (b) the US/Canadian HS differences (e.g. status of bilingualism and the languages at stake) is a reflection of the uniqueness of the language contact situations and the effects this has on the input HSS receive.

A five-dimensional model of attributes: some precursors of executive coach selection

The purpose of this study was to specify a set of attributes, identified as important precursors to coach selection. Executive coaching has grown exponentially, but there have been few studies as to the efficacy of coaching, including the factors that influence a manager's choice of coach. This study sought to identify these factors. The 45-item, online survey produced 267 useable responses. Results of the principal component analysis suggested a five-factor solution, with women showing a statistically significant preference over men for coaches who have the Ability to Develop Critical Thinking and Action, the Ability to Forge the Coaching Partnership and Coach Experience and Qualifications. The impact of coachee age was not significant in selecting executive coaches. The findings show a statistically significant relationship between coach attributes and the intention to continue with coaching. The implications of these findings for the selection of coaches, and for the coaching profession are discussed.

A Genetic Algorithm for the selection of structural MRI features for classification of Mild Cognitive Impairment and Alzheimer's Disease

This work investigates the problem of feature selection in neuroimaging features from structural MRI brain images for the classification of subjects as healthy controls, suffering from Mild Cognitive Impairment or Alzheimer’s Disease. A Genetic Algorithm wrapper method for feature selection is adopted in conjunction with a Support Vector Machine classifier. In very large feature sets, feature selection is found to be redundant as the accuracy is often worsened when compared to an Support Vector Machine with no feature selection. However, when just the hippocampal subfields are used, feature selection shows a significant improvement of the classification accuracy. Three-class Support Vector Machines and two-class Support Vector Machines combined with weighted voting are also compared with the former and found more useful. The highest accuracy achieved at classifying the test data was 65.5% using a genetic algorithm for feature selection with a three-class Support Vector Machine classifier.

Modeling bidding competitiveness and position performance in multi-attribute construction auctions

Currently, multi-attribute auctions are becoming widespread awarding mechanisms for contracts in construction, and in these auctions, criteria other than price are taken into account for ranking bidder proposals. Therefore, being the lowest-price bidder is no longer a guarantee of being awarded, thus increasing the importance of measuring any bidder’s performance when not only the first position (lowest price) matters. Modeling position performance allows a tender manager to calculate the probability curves related to the more likely positions to be occupied by any bidder who enters a competitive auction irrespective of the actual number of future participating bidders. This paper details a practical methodology based on simple statistical calculations for modeling the performance of a single bidder or a group of bidders, constituting a useful resource for analyzing one’s own success while benchmarking potential bidding competitors.

Scoring rules and abnormally low bids criteria in construction tenders: a taxonomic review

In the global construction context, the best value or most economically advantageous tender is becoming a widespread approach for contractor selection, as an alternative to other traditional awarding criteria such as the lowest price. In these multi-attribute tenders, the owner or auctioneer solicits proposals containing both a price bid and additional technical features. Once the proposals are received, each bidder’s price bid is given an economic score according to a scoring rule, generally called an economic scoring formula (ESF) and a technical score according to pre-specified criteria. Eventually, the contract is awarded to the bidder with the highest weighted overall score (economic + technical). However, economic scoring formula selection by auctioneers is invariably and paradoxically a highly intuitive process in practice, involving few theoretical or empirical considerations, despite having been considered traditionally and mistakenly as objective, due to its mathematical nature. This paper provides a taxonomic classification of a wide variety of ESFs and abnormally low bids criteria (ALBC) gathered in several countries with different tendering approaches. Practical implications concern the optimal design of price scoring rules in construction contract tenders, as well as future analyses of the effects of the ESF and ALBC on competitive bidding behaviour.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Variance in male reproductive success and sexual size dimorphism in pinnipeds: testing an assumption of sexual selection theory

The theory of evolution by sexual selection for sexual size dimorphism (SSD) postulates that SSD primarily reflects the adaptation of males and females to their different reproductive roles. For example, competition among males for access to females increases male body size because larger males are better able to maintain dominant status than smaller males. Larger dominant males sire most offspring while smaller subordinate males are unsuccessful, leading to skew in reproductive success. Therefore, species with male-biased SSD are predicted to have greater variance in male reproductive success than those in which both sexes are similar in size. We tested this prediction among the Pinnipedia, a mammalian group with a great variation in SSD. From a literature review, we identified genetic estimates of male reproductive success for 10 pinniped taxa (eight unique species and two subspecies of a ninth species) that range from seals with similarly sized males and females to species in which males are more than four times as large as females. We found no support for a positive relationship between variance in reproductive success and SSD among pinnipeds after excluding the elephant seals Mirounga leonina and Mirounga angustirostris, which we discuss as distinctive cases. Several explanations for these results are presented, including the revival of one of Darwin's original ideas. Darwin proposed that natural selection may explain SSD based on differences in energetic requirements between sexes and the potential for sexual niche segregation. Males may develop larger bodies to exploit resources that remain unavailable to females due to the energetic constraints imposed on female mammals by gestation and lactation. The importance of this alternative explanation remains to be tested.