Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Efecto del flujo del dializado sobre la ganancia interdialítica en hemodiálisis crónica (Estudio FLUGAIN)

Objetivos: Determinar si existe diferencia en la ganancia interdialítica entre los pacientes al ser tratados con flujo de dializado (Qd) de 400 mL/min y 500 mL/min. Diseño: Se realizó un estudio de intervención, cruzado, aleatorizado, doble ciego en pacientes con enfermedad renal crónica en hemodiálisis para determinar diferencias en la ganancia de peso interdialítica entre los pacientes tratados con flujo de dializado (Qd) de 400 ml/min y 500 ml/min. Pacientes: Se analizaron datos de 46 pacientes en hemodiálisis crónica con Qd de 400 ml/min y 45 con Qd de 500 ml/min. Análisis: La prueba de hipótesis para evaluar diferencias en la ganancia interdialítica y las otras variables entre los grupos se realizó mediante la prueba T para muestras pareadas. Para el análisis de correlación se calculó el coeficiente de Pearson. Resultados: No hubo diferencia significativa en ganancia interdialítica usando Qd de 400 ml/min vs 500 ml/min (2.37 ± 0.7 vs 2.41 ± 0.6, p=0.41) ni en Kt/V (1.57 ± 0.25 vs 1.59 ± 0.23, p = 0.45), potasio (4.9 ± 1.1 vs 5.1 ± 1.0, p=0.45), fosforo (4.5 ± 1.2 vs 4.4 ± 1.2, p=0.56) o hemoglobina (11.3 ± 1.8 vs 11.3 ± 1.6, p=0.96). Conclusiones: En pacientes con peso ≤ 65 Kg el uso de Qd de 400 ml/min no se asocia con menor ganancia interdialítica de peso. No hay diferencia en la eficiencia de diálisis lo que sugiere que es una intervención segura a corto plazo.

Impacto en el entrenamiento con simuladores de laparoscopia dentro del programa de Cirugía General-Universidad del Rosario

Introducción: La cirugía laparoscópica ocupa un lugar privilegiado dentro de la cirugía mínimamente invasiva, brindando al paciente y a las instituciones hospitalarias importantes beneficios comparados con la cirugía convencional. Los cirujanos en formación deben contar con un entrenamiento adecuado en cirugía laparoscópica basado en simuladores previo a la práctica con pacientes, disminuyendo la morbimortalidad derivada de la curva de aprendizaje. Este estudio busca describir e identificar los cambios en habilidades y tiempos quirúrgicos antes y después del entrenamiento con simulador de bajo costo y simulador virtual. Metodología: Se realizó un seudoexperimento (antes y después) con 20 residentes de los cuales 18 completaron el estudio, quienes recibieron un entrenamiento dirigido para la realización de procedimientos por vía laparoscópica en simuladores. El análisis estadístico se realiza mediante un análisis uni y bivariado, y se determina la significancia estadística con la medición de X2 y prueba exacta de Fisher así como la prueba T Student para muestras emparejadas y Wilcoxon para las variables numéricas. Resultados: El simulador de bajo costo muestra dependencia en la variable de manejo de tejidos en el ejercicio 3 y 10, con valores de p=0.035, y p=0.028 respectivamente. El 60% de los ejercicios muestra una diferencia estadísticamente significativa en el tiempo empleado en las pruebas. Para simulador virtual, todos los ejercicios mostraron diferencias significativas en al menos una de las variables evaluadas. Conclusiones: El entrenamiento, tanto con el simulador de bajo costo como con el simulador virtual, mejora las habilidades quirúrgicas necesarias para la realización de un procedimiento laparoscópico.

Human papillomavirus detection from human immunodeficiency virus-infected colombian women's paired urine and cervical samples

Infection, coinfection and type-specific human papillomavirus (HPV) distribution was evaluated in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women from paired cervical and urine samples. Paired cervical and urine samples (n = 204) were taken from HIV-positive women for identifying HPV-DNA presence by using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with three generic primer sets (GP5+/6+, MY09/11 and pU1M/2R). HPV-positive samples were typed for six high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) (HPV-16, -18, -31, -33, -45 and -58) and two low-risk (LR-HPV) (HPV-6/11) types. Agreement between paired sample results and diagnostic performance was evaluated. HPV infection prevalence was 70.6% in cervical and 63.2% in urine samples. HPV-16 was the most prevalent HPV type in both types of sample (66.7% in cervical samples and 62.0% in urine) followed by HPV-31(47.2%) in cervical samples and HPV-58 (35.7%) in urine samples. There was 55.4% coinfection (infection by more than one type of HPV) in cervical samples and 40.2% in urine samples. Abnormal Papanicolau smears were observed in 25.3% of the women, presenting significant association with HPV-DNA being identified in urine samples. There was poor agreement of cervical and urine sample results in generic and type-specific detection of HPV. Urine samples provided the best diagnosis when taking cytological findings as reference. In conclusion including urine samples could be a good strategy for ensuring adherence to screening programs aimed at reducing the impact of cervical cancer, since this sample is easy to obtain and showed good diagnostic performance.

Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions

This paper analyzes the measure of systemic importance ∆CoV aR proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009, 2010) within the context of a similar class of risk measures used in the risk management literature. In addition, we develop a series of testing procedures, based on ∆CoV aR, to identify and rank the systemically important institutions. We stress the importance of statistical testing in interpreting the measure of systemic importance. An empirical application illustrates the testing procedures, using equity data for three European banks.

Statistical inference for testing Gini coefficients: an application for Colombia

This paper uses Colombian household survey data collected over the period 1984-2005 to estimate Gini coe¢ cients along with their corresponding standard errors. We Önd a statistically signiÖcant increase in wage income inequality following the adoption of the liberalisation measures of the early 1990s, and mixed evidence during the recovery years that followed the economic recession of the late 1990s. We also Önd that in several cases the observed di§erences in the Gini coe¢ cients across cities have not been statistically signiÖcant.

Testing for Stock Market Integration in a Developing Economy: Colombia

This paper examines the linkage between two parallel stock exchanges trading the same shares in Colombia, namely the Bogotá Stock Exchange and the Medellín Stock Exchange. We provide empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that these two markets can be best described as fully integrated over a period of almost four decades, which is consistent with the view that arbitrage opportunities are only possible in the short but not in the long run. In addition, we find evide

Testing the law of one price in food markets: evidence for Colombia using disaggregated data

This paper applies stationarity tests to examine evidence of market integration for a relatively large sample of food products in Colombia. We Önd little support for market integration when using the univariate KPSS tests for stationarity. However, within a panel context and after allowing for cross sectional dependence, the Hadri tests provide much more evidence supporting the view that food markets are integrated or, in other words, that the law of one price holds for most products.

Genetic testing with primary prevention and moral hazard

We develop a model where a free genetic test reveals whether the individual tested has a low or high probability of developing a disease. A costly prevention effort allows high-risk agents to decrease the probability of developing the disease. Agents are not obliged to take the test, but must disclose its results to insurers. Insurers offer separating contracts which take into account the individual risk, so that taking the test is associated to a discrimination risk. We study the individual decisions to take the test and to undertake the prevention effort as a function of the effort cost and of its e¢ ciency. We obtain that, if effort is observable by insurers, agents undertake the test only if the effort cost is neither too large nor too low. If the effort cost is not observable by insurers, they face a moral hazard problem which induces them to under-provide insurance. We obtain the counterintuitive result that moral hazard increases the value of the test if the effort cost is low enough. Also, agents may perform the test for lower levels of prevention e¢ ciency when effort is not observable