Lethal Closeness: The Evolution of a Small-World Drug Trafficking Network

The evolution of the drug trafficking network –so-called– ‘Cartel del Norte del Valle’, is studied using network analysis methods. We found that the average length between any pair of its members was bounded by 4 –an attribute of smallworld networks. In this tightly connected network, informational shocks induce fear and the unleashing of searches of threatening nodes, using available paths. Lethal violence ensues in clusters of increasing sizes that fragment the network, without compromising, however, the survival of the largest component, which proved to be resilient to massive violence. In spite of a success from the point of view of head counting, the US’ socialization program for drug traffickers did not effectively change the cyclical dynamics of the drug dealing business: war survivors took over what was left from the old network initiating a new cycle of business and violence.

Sexual Violence Beyond all Reasonable Doubt

Establishing the pattern of crime is fundamental for the successful investigation ofinternational crimes (genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity). A patternof crime is the aggregate of multiple incidents that share common features related tothe victims, the perpetrators, and the modus operandi. Pattern evidence and analysishave been used successfully, mainly in the investigation of large-scale killings, destruction,and displacement; the use for sexual violence charges has been remarkablymore limited. There is a need to overcome this gap by setting proper methods of datacollection and analysis. At the level of evidence collection, under-reporting should beaddressed through victimization surveys or secondary analysis of data available fromdifferent sources. At the level of analysis, the available evidence needs to be subject toimpartial examination beyond the pre-conceptions of the conflict parties and advocacygroups, in compliance with scientific standards for quantitative, qualitative, andGIS (Geographic Information Systems)methods. Reviewing the different investigativeexperiences and jurisprudence will help to set the right methodology and contribute mostefficiently to putting an end to the impunity regarding sexual crimes.

Violence and social orders: a conceptual framework for interpreting recorded human history

Violencia y órdenes sociales: un marco conceptual para la interpretación de la historia humana registrada

Sexual Violence Against Women as a Strategy to Dispossess Land in the Colombian Armed Conflict

This article reviews the evidence collected by diverse national and international organizations regarding the relationship between sexual violence against women, forced displacement, and dispossession in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. To this end, it uses the concept of “sexual violence regimes” to highlight that the endspursued by sexual violence are not always exhausted by simple consummation (that is, the act of sexual violence itself), but depending on the context, can be connected with broader strategic goals of armed actors. At the same time, this document admits the difficulty of proving this relationship with respect to judicial procedures, and thus sets out the possibility of creating a rebuttable presumption, in the framework of “unconstitutional state of affairs” created by judgment T-025 of 2004, that alleviates the burden of proof of the victims, and serves as a catalyst to promote new genderbased mechanisms of reparations.

Impact de la violence politique sur la santé mentale des jeunes adolescents en Colombie. Analyse des facteurs de risque et de protection

El objetivo de esta investigación es examinar desde una perspectiva ecológica la salud mental de los adolescentes desplazados por la violencia política en Colombia. Se tomó como base el modelo ecológico integrado del impacto del trauma de Elbedour, ten Bensel y Bastien (1993), que estipula la influencia combinada de diferentes niveles de factores unidos a la experiencia traumática, factores individuales y factores proximales que vienen de la familia, y de los factores sociales de la red social familiar. El estudio se realizó con 98 jóvenes en edades entre los 9 a 16 años (M= 12.5 años, dt= 2.18), habitantes de las afueras de Barranquilla, de los cuales 48 son desplazados por la violencia (26 de sexo masculino, 22 de sexo femenino) y 50 son sedentarios pobres (26 de sexo masculino, 24 de sexo femenino). Los cuestionarios se escogieron en función de su utilización en contextos de pobreza y/o violencia (Macksoud, 1992; Macksoud & Aber, 1996; Macksoud, Aber, Dyregrov & Raundalen, 1990). Los resultados muestran que los adolescentes desplazados son más deprimidos y ansiosos que sus pares sedentarios. La ansiedad está unida al número total de eventos traumáticos, mientras que la depresión se explica más bien por la separación de los padres. Las competencias sociales y el ambiente social actúan como factores protectores. Entre los factores del ambiente social se observa el hecho de vivir en una familia extensa y de inscribirse en una red social que incluye a los amigos de la familia.  En su conjunto, la familia y la preservación de su unidad aparecen como elementos cruciales.

Prevalence, risk factors, and problems associated with dating violence: A literature review

The physical, psychological and sexual violence among the couples of adolescents and young adults that are not married neither cohabiting (well-known generally as “dating violence”), has been object of a vast number of investigations in the last two decades that show a high prevalence inside the adolescent and juvenile population. The objective of this work was to carry out an analysis of the literature in connection with the prevalence, risk factors and difficulties associated with this partner violence type. This analysis allowed to elaborate an outline of the factors that could favor the acts of violence, including the previous experiences of victimization inside and outside the family, the acceptance of the violence toward the couple, and the relationship with pairs that have exercised this form of violence.

Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who Öght over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians di§er from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the e§ect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two e§ects that go in opposite directions. While a direct e§ect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect e§ect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant e§ect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombiaís civil war.

The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis.

Violence and growth in colombia : a review of the quantitative literature

This is a critical review of the empirical literature on the relationship between violence and economic growth in Colombia: an interesting case study for social scientists studying violence, conflict, crime and development. We argue that, despite the rapid development of this literature and the increasing use of new techniques, there is still much room for research. After assessing the contribution of the most influential papers on the subject, we suggest directions for future research.

Don't make war, make elections : Franchise extension and violence in XIXth-century Colombia

This paper studies the effect of strengthening democracy, as captured by an increase in voting rights, on the incidence of violent civil conflict in nineteenth-century Colombia. Empirically studying the relationship between democracy and conflict is challenging, not only because of conceptual problems in defining and measuring democracy, but also because political institutions and violence are jointly determined. We take advantage of an experiment of history to examine the impact of one simple, measurable dimension of democracy (the size of the franchise) on con- flict, while at the same time attempting to overcome the identification problem. In 1853, Colombia established universal male suffrage. Using a simple difference-indifferences specification at the municipal level, we find that municipalities where more voters were enfranchised relative to their population experienced fewer violent political battles while the reform was in effect. The results are robust to including a number of additional controls. Moreover, we investigate the potential mechanisms driving the results. In particular, we look at which components of the proportion of new voters in 1853 explain the results, and we examine if results are stronger in places with more political competition and state capacity. We interpret our findings as suggesting that violence in nineteenth-century Colombia was a technology for political elites to compete for the rents from power, and that democracy constituted an alternative way to compete which substituted violence.

Behavioral differences in violence: the case of intra-group differences of paramilitaries and guerrillas in Colombia

In most studies on civil wars, determinants of conflict have been hitherto explored assuming that actors involved were either unitary or stable. However, if this intra-group homogeneity assumption does not hold, empirical econometric estimates may be biased. We use Fixed Effects Finite Mixture Model (FE-FMM) approach to address this issue that provides a representation of heterogeneity when data originate from different latent classes and the affiliation is unknown. It allows to identify sub-populations within a population as well as the determinants of their behaviors. By combining various data sources for the period 2000-2005, we apply this methodology to the Colombian conflict. Our results highlight a behavioral heterogeneity in guerrilla’s armed groups and their distinct economic correlates. By contrast paramilitaries behave as a rather homogenous group.

Psycological violence against women in Colombia

Although violence against women has gain attention, there is little evidence of studies about phycological violence against a partner. This paper uses data from Encuesta Nacional de Demografíay Salud (ENDS) to assess empirically models of violence against a partner. One of the main findingsis that the higher the economic independence of the women, the lower the phycologicalviolence against a partner. Some other results show that women with higher education level, belongingto a violent or low income family and living in cities different from Bogotá is correlatedwith higher probability of phycological violence.