Seguros de desempleo: revisión de literatura y propuesta para Colombia

En este artículo se estudia la posibilidad de introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. En una primera parte, se propone una revisión de literatura de los seguros de desempleo en la cual se exponen las ventajas generadas por una cobertura contra este riesgo, así como sus inconvenientes. En una segunda parte, se estudian varios escenarios para introducir seguros de desempleo en Colombia. Después de haber presentado el contexto del mercado laboral y de las normas que lo vigilan, se proponen varios diseños que abordan la gestión y la administración del riesgo de desempleo en Colombia. Igualmente se presentan algunas consideraciones teóricas para la valoración del costo del aseguramiento, las cuales incorporan los efectos del riesgo moral sobre la duración y la incidencia del desempleo.

Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Cambios en el régimen de pensiones en Colombia y su efecto en el margen intensivo de la oferta laboral

En Colombia, como en muchos países de América Latina, en los años 80 y 90 se hicieron cambios importantes en los regímenes de pensiones. Este trabajo hace un análisis de uno de esos cambios en Colombia. El cambio consistió en aumentar el tiempo de cotización necesario para reclamar los beneficios pensionales y la inclusión del salario dentro de la fórmula del monto de pensiones. Para este propósito se estudia el impacto sobre la oferta laboral de un cambio exógeno en estas condiciones usando un diseño de regresión discontinua. Se encuentra un efecto positivo sobre las horas promedio trabajadas en la semana.

Mixed oligopoly in education

This paper studies oligopolistic competition in education markets when schools can be private and public and when the quality of education depends on ìpeer groupî e§ects. In the Örst stage of our game schools set their quality and in the second stage they Öx their tuition fees. We examine how the (subgame perfect Nash) equilibrium allocation (qualities, tuition fees and welfare) is a§ected by the presence of public schools and by their relative position in the quality range. When there are no peer group e§ects, e¢ ciency is achieved when (at least) all but one school are public. In particular in the two school case, the impact of a public school is spectacular as we go from a setting of extreme di§erentiation to an e¢ cient allocation. However, in the three school case, a single public school will lower welfare compared to the private equilibrium. We then introduce a peer group e§ect which, for any given school is determined by its student with the highest ability. These PGE do have a signiÖcant impact on the results. The mixed equilibrium is now never e¢ cient. However, welfare continues to be improved if all but one school are public. Overall, the presence of PGE reduces the e§ectiveness of public schools as regulatory tool in an otherwise private education sector.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

Parametric pension reform and the intensive margin of labor supply, evidence from Colombia

We analyze the effect of a parametric reform of the fully-funded pension regime in Colombia on the intensive margin of the labor supply. We take advantage of a threshold defined by law in order to identify the causal effect using a regression discontinuity design. We find that a pension system that increases retirement age and the minimum weeks during which workers must contribute to claim pension benefits causes an increase of around 2 hours on the number of weekly worked hours; this corresponds to 4% of the average number of weekly worked hours or around 14% of a standard deviation of weekly worked hours. The effect is robust to different specifications, polynomial orders and sample sizes.

Stock return comovements and integration within the Latin American integrated market

Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.

Salud sexual y reproductiva: aspectos de análisis para el departamento de Casanare

La sexualidad y la reproducción están íntimamente ligadas a la calidad de vida, tanto en el ámbito de lo individual como de lo social, por tanto la salud sexual y reproductiva representa un componente esencial para la evaluación de desarrollo de un país, y un tema prioritario en la agenda política mundial y nacional como lo evidencian los objetivos del milenio y de desarrollo sostenible; aunque el país ha dado enormes avances en el tema, aun se presentan grandes retos para el logro y goce efectivo de los derechos sexuales y reproductivos en la población. El objetivo del presente estudio es describir y analizar algunos indicadores de salud sexual y reproductiva en el departamento de Casanare, en el periodo 2008- 2015. Como metodología se usó un diseño descriptivo trasversal, los datos fueron tomados de Sivigila departamental, Estadísticas DANE y del Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se usó SPSS versión 18 y Excel para el análisis de los datos. Como resultados se encontraron altas tasas de prevalencia e incidencia para VIH, sífilis gestacional, y fecundidad en adolescentes en el departamento de Casanare que sobrepasan los indicadores nacionales y presentan tendencia creciente

The differential effect on dropout of increasing grades' supply by integrating or expanding schools: evidence from a quasi-experiment in Bogotá

En el año 2002, la Secretaría de Educación de Bogotá estipuló la Resolución 2101 que tenía por objeto asegurar el ciclo de la educación completo en los colegios públicos. El propósito de este trabajo es evaluar el impacto de los mecanismos seguidos a la aplicación de esta política sobre la tasa de deserción escolar. Las escuelas tenían tres mecanismos diferentes para alcanzar el objetivo de la presente resolución: expandir los grados escolares ofertados, integrarse con otros colegios de la zona, o ambos. Para ello, utilizo variables instrumentales para resolver el sesgo causado por el hecho de que los colegios que siguen determinada estrategia eran los que tenían altas tasas de deserción inicialmente. Usando datos sobre las características institucionales y las características socio-demográficas de la población cerca del colegio, evalúo el impacto de estos tres mecanismos sobre las tasas de deserción escolar. Los resultados sugieren que las instituciones que aumentaron los grados experimentan un aumento en el número de estudiantes que abandonan el colegio en 12.1 puntos porcentuales, mientras que las instituciones que complementaron este mecanismo con la integración de un colegio próximo pre existente mostraron una reducción en la tasa de deserción escolar de 9.8 puntos porcentuales.

Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

Natural resources, redistribution and Human capital formation

How do resource booms affect human capital accumulation? We exploit time and spatial variation generated by the commodity boom across local governments in Peru to measure the effect of natural resources on human capital formation. We explore the effect of both mining production and tax revenues on test scores, finding a substantial and statistically significant effect for the latter. Transfers to local governments from mining tax revenues are linked to an increase in math test scores of around 0.23 standard deviations. We find that the hiring of permanent teachers as well as the increases in parental employment and improvements in health outcomes of adults and children are plausible mechanisms for such large effect on learning. These findings suggest that redistributive policies could facilitate the accumulation of human capital in resource abundant developing countries as a way to avoid the natural resources curse.