Military empowerment and civilian targeting in civil war

Civilians constitute a large share of casualties in civil wars across the world. They are targeted to create fear and punish allegiance with the enemy. This maximizes collaboration with the perpetrator and strengthens the support network necessary to consolidate control over contested regions. I develop a model of the magnitude and structure of civilian killings in civil wars involving two armed groups who Öght over territorial control. Armies secure compliance through a combination of carrots and sticks. In turn, civilians di§er from each other in their intrinsic preference towards one group. I explore the e§ect of the empowerment of one of the groups in the civilian death toll. There are two e§ects that go in opposite directions. While a direct e§ect makes the powerful group more lethal, there is an indirect e§ect by which the number of civilians who align with that group increases, leaving less enemy supporters to kill. I study the conditions under which there is one dominant e§ect and illustrate the predictions using sub-national longitudinal data for Colombiaís civil war.

Incidencia del proyecto “ASEAN community” en el desarrollo humano de Tailandia (2004-2014)

Esta investigación se interesa en evaluar los logros y retos que ha presentado el proyecto ASEAN Community en cada una de sus tres áreas de acción (Comunidad económica, comunidad de política y seguridad, y comunidad socio-cultural) ante su aplicación en Tailandia. De esta manera, se busca analizar la incidencia que ha tenido el proyecto en el Desarrollo Humano de Tailandia durante el periodo 2004-2014. A través del análisis del estatus actual a la luz del concepto de libertades instrumentales se realiza la evaluación de los resultados de los proyectos y su conveniencia o no para el desarrollo humano de la sociedad tailandesa.