Natural resource windfalls and efficiency of local government expenditures: evidence from Peru

We study the role of natural resource windfalls in explaining the efficiency of public expenditures. Using a rich dataset of expenditures and public good provision for 1,836 municipalities in Peru for period 2001-2010, we estimate a non-monotonic relationship between the efficiency of public good provision and the level of natural resource transfers. Local governments that were extremely favored by the boom of mineral prices were more efficient in using fiscal windfalls whereas those benefited with modest transfers were more inefficient. These results can be explained by the increase in political competition associated with the boom. However, the fact that increases in efficiency were related to reductions in public good provision casts doubts about the beneficial effects of political competition in promoting efficiency.

Efectividad y seguridad de las emulsiones de pescado en la colestasis asociada a nutrición parenteral en neonatos

El daño hepático asociado a Nutrición Parenteral es una complicación letal en pacientes con nutrición parenteral prolongada. Su etiología no es clara aún, y se cree que las emulsiones lipídicas tradicionales con en base aceite de soya pueden contribuir a su génesis. Recientemente la modificación del contenido de ácidos grasos de las emulsiones lipídicas tradicionalmente de ácidos grasos omega-6 a ricas en omega-3 se postula como terapia prometedora en niños con PNALD. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de la literatura en Cochrane y Pubmed, se seleccionaron ensayos clínicos controlados y estudios de cohorte prospectiva. Se utilizó le metodología SIGN para la calificación de los estudios y evaluación del grado de recomendación basada en la evidencia. El meta-análisis que se llevó a cabo incluyó dos artículos de cohorte prospectiva del grupo de Boston para la variable principal de desenlace considerada: tiempo de reverso de la colestasis. Los pacientes que recibieron emulsiones de lípidos de pescado experimentaron regresión de la colestasis significativamente más rápido que los que recibieron emulsiones de soya (HR=10.3, IC 95%:3.7,29,0, efectos fijos), menor mortalidad y menor necesidad de trasplante hepático. Su utilización no se asocia con deficiencia de ácidos grasos, hipertrigliceridemia, coagulopatía o retraso en el crecimiento. Se evidencio una correlación entre la disminución de los niveles de triglicéridos y aumento de los niveles de albúmina, sugiriendo un beneficio nutricional en los pacientes bajo infusiones de lípidos de pescado.

The environmental impact of civil conflict : the deforestation effect of paramilitary expansion in Colombia

Despite a growing body of literature on how environmental degradation can fuel civil war, the reverse effect, namely that of conflict on environmental outcomes, is relatively understudied. From a theoretical point of view this effect is ambiguous, with some forces pointing to pressures for environmental degradation and some pointing in the opposite direction. Hence, the overall effect of conflict on the environment is an empirical question. We study this relationship in the case of Colombia. We combine a detailed satellite-based longitudinal dataset on forest cover across municipalities over the period 1990-2010 with a comprehensive panel of conflict-related violent actions by paramilitary militias. We first provide evidence that paramilitary activity significantly reduces the share of forest cover in a panel specification that includes municipal and time fixed effects. Then we confirm these findings by taking advantage of a quasi-experiment that provides us with an exogenous source of variation for the expansion of the paramilitary. Using the distance to the region of Urab´a, the epicenter of such expansion, we instrument paramilitary activity in each cross-section for which data on forest cover is available. As a falsification exercise, we show that the instrument ceases to be relevant after the paramilitaries largely demobilized following peace negotiations with the government. Further, after the demobilization the deforestation effect of the paramilitaries disappears. We explore a number of potential mechanisms that may explain the conflict-driven deforestation, and show evidence suggesting that paramilitary violence generates large outflows of people in order to secure areas for growing illegal crops, exploit mineral resources, and engage in extensive agriculture. In turn, these activities are associated with deforestation.

The crime kuznets curve

We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the incidence of crime, as well as to controlling for state and year fixed effects. The Curve is also revealed in nonparametric specifications. The Crime Kuznets Curve exists for property crime and for some categories of violent crime.

Behavioral differences in violence: the case of intra-group differences of paramilitaries and guerrillas in Colombia

In most studies on civil wars, determinants of conflict have been hitherto explored assuming that actors involved were either unitary or stable. However, if this intra-group homogeneity assumption does not hold, empirical econometric estimates may be biased. We use Fixed Effects Finite Mixture Model (FE-FMM) approach to address this issue that provides a representation of heterogeneity when data originate from different latent classes and the affiliation is unknown. It allows to identify sub-populations within a population as well as the determinants of their behaviors. By combining various data sources for the period 2000-2005, we apply this methodology to the Colombian conflict. Our results highlight a behavioral heterogeneity in guerrilla’s armed groups and their distinct economic correlates. By contrast paramilitaries behave as a rather homogenous group.

Network externalities across financial institutions

We propose and estimate a financial distress model that explicitly accounts for the interactions or spill-over effects between financial institutions, through the use of a spatial continuity matrix that is build from financial network data of inter bank transactions. Such setup of the financial distress model allows for the empirical validation of the importance of network externalities in determining financial distress, in addition to institution specific and macroeconomic covariates. The relevance of such specification is that it incorporates simultaneously micro-prudential factors (Basel 2) as well as macro-prudential and systemic factors (Basel 3) as determinants of financial distress. Results indicate network externalities are an important determinant of financial health of a financial institutions. The parameter that measures the effect of network externalities is both economically and statistical significant and its inclusion as a risk factor reduces the importance of the firm specific variables such as the size or degree of leverage of the financial institution. In addition we analyze the policy implications of the network factor model for capital requirements and deposit insurance pricing.

Validación de criterio concurrente del sistema de observación de tiempo de instrucción de condición física – SOFIT- para la medición de la actividad física durante las clases de educación física en escolares de 1º A 9º de Bogotá, Colombia

Determinar la validez concurrente del Sistema de Observación de Tiempo de Instrucción de Condición Física (SOFIT) a través de acelerometría, como método para medir los niveles de actividad física (AF) de los escolares de 1º a 9º durante la clase de educación física en tres colegios públicos de Bogotá, Colombia. Estudio transversal entre Octubre de 2014 y Marzo de 2015. La medición se realizó en tres colegios públicos de Bogotá. Participaron 48 estudiantes (25 niñas; 23 niños), entre 5 y 17 años, seleccionados de acuerdo al protocolo de SOFIT. El resultado se categoriza en porcentaje de tiempo en comportamiento sedentario, AF moderada, AF vigorosa, y AF moderada a vigorosa. Se validó utilizando como patrón de oro la acelerometría en las mismas categorías. Se realizó diferencia de medias, regresión lineal y modelo de efectos fijos. La correlación entre SOFIT y acelerometría fue buena para AF moderada (rho=,958; p=0,000), AF vigorosa (rho=,937; p=0,000) y AF de moderada a vigorosa (rho=0,962; p=0,000). Al igual que utilizando un modelo de efectos fijos, AF moderada (β1=0,92; p=0,00), vigorosa (β1=0,94; p=0,00) y AF de moderada a vigorosa (β1=0,95; p=0,00), mostrando ausencia de diferencias significativas entre los dos métodos para la medición de los niveles de AF. El comportamiento sedentario correlacionó positivamente en Spearman (rho=,0965; p=0,000), El sistema SOFIT demostró ser válido para medir niveles de AF en clases de educación física, tras buena correlación y concordancia con acelerometría. SOFIT es un instrumento de fácil acceso y de bajo costo para la medición de la AF durante las clases de educación física en el contexto escolar y se recomienda su uso en futuros estudios.

"Tell me who you hang out with": Classroom peer effects on psychoactive substances consumption

I look for classroom peer effects for psychoactive substance consumption among Colombian high school students and attempt to identify channels that rationalize for these effects. To do so, I use data for Colombian schools from 2011. I identify peer effects using household consumption behavior to instrument average classroom consumption. I find that an increase of 10% in the proportion of classroom users of alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine increases the probability of students to use alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine in 3.14%, 4.29%, and 2.38% respectively. I find no significant effect on cigarette smoking for the full sample but after exploring heterogeneous effects I find suggestive evidence that the effect is positive in some grades. I find some evidence that indicate that peer effects on alcohol, cannabis, and cocaine consumption operate through risk perception and easiness of access to psychoactive substances, meaning that the increase of likelihood of consumption could be explained because it is easier to access to drugs for students that interact with consumers or because a decrease in the risk students perceive of consuming these substances. Finally, through the use of a SUR and a 3SLS estimator I find strong correlations between smoking cigarettes and consuming cannabis (55 %), and cocaine (60 %).