Modeling and Analysis of Some Heavy Tailed Time Series

The thesis has covered various aspects of modeling and analysis of finite mean time series with symmetric stable distributed innovations. Time series analysis based on Box and Jenkins methods are the most popular approaches where the models are linear and errors are Gaussian. We highlighted the limitations of classical time series analysis tools and explored some generalized tools and organized the approach parallel to the classical set up. In the present thesis we mainly studied the estimation and prediction of signal plus noise model. Here we assumed the signal and noise follow some models with symmetric stable innovations.We start the thesis with some motivating examples and application areas of alpha stable time series models. Classical time series analysis and corresponding theories based on finite variance models are extensively discussed in second chapter. We also surveyed the existing theories and methods correspond to infinite variance models in the same chapter. We present a linear filtering method for computing the filter weights assigned to the observation for estimating unobserved signal under general noisy environment in third chapter. Here we consider both the signal and the noise as stationary processes with infinite variance innovations. We derived semi infinite, double infinite and asymmetric signal extraction filters based on minimum dispersion criteria. Finite length filters based on Kalman-Levy filters are developed and identified the pattern of the filter weights. Simulation studies show that the proposed methods are competent enough in signal extraction for processes with infinite variance.Parameter estimation of autoregressive signals observed in a symmetric stable noise environment is discussed in fourth chapter. Here we used higher order Yule-Walker type estimation using auto-covariation function and exemplify the methods by simulation and application to Sea surface temperature data. We increased the number of Yule-Walker equations and proposed a ordinary least square estimate to the autoregressive parameters. Singularity problem of the auto-covariation matrix is addressed and derived a modified version of the Generalized Yule-Walker method using singular value decomposition.In fifth chapter of the thesis we introduced partial covariation function as a tool for stable time series analysis where covariance or partial covariance is ill defined. Asymptotic results of the partial auto-covariation is studied and its application in model identification of stable auto-regressive models are discussed. We generalize the Durbin-Levinson algorithm to include infinite variance models in terms of partial auto-covariation function and introduce a new information criteria for consistent order estimation of stable autoregressive model.In chapter six we explore the application of the techniques discussed in the previous chapter in signal processing. Frequency estimation of sinusoidal signal observed in symmetric stable noisy environment is discussed in this context. Here we introduced a parametric spectrum analysis and frequency estimate using power transfer function. Estimate of the power transfer function is obtained using the modified generalized Yule-Walker approach. Another important problem in statistical signal processing is to identify the number of sinusoidal components in an observed signal. We used a modified version of the proposed information criteria for this purpose.

A Diagnostic and Modeling Study on the Onset of Summer Monsoon over South Asia

This study focuses on the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a semi-objective method to define monsoon onset. The main objectives of the study are to understand the monsoon onset processes, to simulate monsoon onset in a GCM using as input the atmospheric conditions and Sea Surface Temperature, 10 days earlier to the onset, to develop a method for medium range prediction of the date of onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala and to examine the possibility of objectively defining the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK). It gives a broad description of regional monsoon systems and monsoon onsets over Asia and Australia. Asian monsoon includes two separate subsystems, Indain monsoon and East Asian monsoon. It is seen from this study that the duration of the different phases of the onset process are dependent on the period of ISO. Based on the study of the monsoon onset process, modeling studies can be done for better understanding of the ocean-atmosphere interaction especially those associated with the warm pool in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Modeling of Suspended Sediment Dynamics in Tropical River Basins

It is proposed to study the suspended sediment transport characteristics of river basins of Kerala and to model suspended sediment discharge mechanism for typical micro-watersheds. The Pamba river basin is selected as a representative hydrologic regime for detailed studies of suspended sediment characteristics and its seasonal variation. The applicability of various erosion models would be tested by comparing with the observed event data (by continuous monitoring of rainfall, discharge, and suspended sediment concentration for lower order streams). Empirical, conceptual and physically distributed models were used for making the comparison of performance of the models. Large variations in the discharge and sediment quantities were noticed during a particular year between the river basins investigated and for an individual river basin during the years for which the data was available. In general, the sediment yield pattern follows the seasonal distribution of rainfall, discharge and physiography of the land. This confirms with similar studies made for other Indian rivers. It was observed from this study, that the quantity of sediment transported downstream shows a decreasing trend over the years corresponding to increase in discharge. For sound and sustainable management of coastal zones, it is important to understand the balance between erosion and retention and to quantify the exact amount of the sediments reaching this eco-system. This, of course, necessitates a good length of time series data and more focused research on the behaviour of each river system, both present and past. In this realm of river inputs to ocean system, each of the 41 rivers of Kerala may have dominant yet diversified roles to influence the coastal ecosystem as reflected from this study on the major fraction of transport, namely the suspended sediments

A Comaparison Study of EM and Physical Equivalent Circuit Modeling for MIM CMOS Capacitors

In this Letter a new physical model for metal-insulatormetal CMOS capacitors is presented. In the model the parameters of the circuit are derived from the physical structural details. Physical behaviors due to metal skin effect and inductance have been considered. The model has been confirmed by 3D EM simulator and design rules proposed. The model presented is scalable with capacitor geometry, allowing designers to predict and optimize quality factor. The approach has been verified for MIM CMOS capacitors

PSWT Based Linear Predictive Coding and Development of a Parallel Multiple Subsequence Structure for DWT Computation

During 1990's the Wavelet Transform emerged as an important signal processing tool with potential applications in time-frequency analysis and non-stationary signal processing.Wavelets have gained popularity in broad range of disciplines like signal/image compression, medical diagnostics, boundary value problems, geophysical signal processing, statistical signal processing,pattern recognition,underwater acoustics etc.In 1993, G. Evangelista introduced the Pitch- synchronous Wavelet Transform, which is particularly suited for pseudo-periodic signal processing.The work presented in this thesis mainly concentrates on two interrelated topics in signal processing,viz. the Wavelet Transform based signal compression and the computation of Discrete Wavelet Transform. A new compression scheme is described in which the Pitch-Synchronous Wavelet Transform technique is combined with the popular linear Predictive Coding method for pseudo-periodic signal processing. Subsequently,A novel Parallel Multiple Subsequence structure is presented for the efficient computation of Wavelet Transform. Case studies also presented to highlight the potential applications.

Hopf bifurcation in parallel polarized Nd:YAG laser

Dynamics of Nd:YAG laser with intracavity KTP crystal operating in two parallel polarized modes is investigated analytically and numerically. System equilibrium points were found out and the stability of each of them was checked using Routh–Hurwitz criteria and also by calculating the eigen values of the Jacobian. It is found that the system possesses three equilibrium points for (Ij, Gj), where j = 1, 2. One of these equilibrium points undergoes Hopf bifurcation in output dynamics as the control parameter is increased. The other two remain unstable throughout the entire region of the parameter space. Our numerical analysis of the Hopf bifurcation phenomena is found to be in good agreement with the analytical results. Nature of energy transfer between the two modes is also studied numerically.

Income modeling using Quantile Functions

Department of Statistics, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Nitrifying Bioreactors Integrated into Shrimp and Prawn Hatchery Systems: Molecular Characterization of the Nitrifying Consortia,Reactor Kinetics, Modeling and Validation

National Centre for Aquatic Animal Health, Cochin University of Science and Technology

Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems and Associated Energetics : Observational and Modeling Studies

The main purpose of the thesis is to improve the state of knowledge and understanding of the physical structure of the TMCS and its short range prediction. The present study principally addresses the fine structure, dynamics and microphysics of severe convective storms.The structure and dynamics of the Tropical cloud clusters over Indian region is not well understood. The observational cases discussed in the thesis are limited to the temperature and humidity observations. We propose a mesoscale observational network along with all the available Doppler radars and other conventional and non—conventional observations. Simultaneous observations with DWR, VHF and UHF radars of the same cloud system will provide new insight into the dynamics and microphysics of the clouds. More cases have to be studied in detail to obtain climatology of the storm type passing over tropical Indian region. These observational data sets provide wide variety of information to be assimilated to the mesoscale data assimilation system and can be used to force CSRM.The gravity wave generation and stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE) processes associated with convection gained a great deal of attention to modem science and meteorologist. Round the clock observations using VHF and UHF radars along with supplementary data sets like DWR, satellite, GPS/Radiosondes, meteorological rockets and aircrafl observations is needed to explore the role of convection and associated energetics in detail.

ARMA modeling of time series based on rational approximation of spectral density function

This study is concerned with Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models of time series. ARMA models form a subclass of the class of general linear models which represents stationary time series, a phenomenon encountered most often in practice by engineers, scientists and economists. It is always desirable to employ models which use parameters parsimoniously. Parsimony will be achieved by ARMA models because it has only finite number of parameters. Even though the discussion is primarily concerned with stationary time series, later we will take up the case of homogeneous non stationary time series which can be transformed to stationary time series. Time series models, obtained with the help of the present and past data is used for forecasting future values. Physical science as well as social science take benefits of forecasting models. The role of forecasting cuts across all fields of management-—finance, marketing, production, business economics, as also in signal process, communication engineering, chemical processes, electronics etc. This high applicability of time series is the motivation to this study.

Modeling Of Work-Related Musculoskeletal Disorders In Chemical Process Industry In India

In this modern complex world, stress at work is found to be increasingly a common feature in day to day life. For the same reason, job stress is one of the active areas in occupational health and safety research for over last four decades and is continuing to attract researchers in academia and industry. Job stress in process industries is of concern due to its influence on process safety, and worker‘s safety and health. Safety in process (chemical and nuclear material) industry is of paramount importance, especially in a thickly populated country like India. Stress at job is the main vector in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders which in turn can affect the worker health and safety in process industries. In view of the above, the process industries should try to minimize the job stress in workers to ensure a safe and healthy working climate for the industry and the worker. This research is mainly aimed at assessing the influence of job stress in inducing work related musculoskeletal disorders in chemical process industries in India

Numerical Simulation of Two-Part Underwater Towing System

The motion instability is an important issue that occurs during the operation of towed underwater vehicles (TUV), which considerably affects the accuracy of high precision acoustic instrumentations housed inside the same. Out of the various parameters responsible for this, the disturbances from the tow-ship are the most significant one. The present study focus on the motion dynamics of an underwater towing system with ship induced disturbances as the input. The study focus on an innovative system called two-part towing. The methodology involves numerical modeling of the tow system, which consists of modeling of the tow-cables and vehicles formulation. Previous study in this direction used a segmental approach for the modeling of the cable. Even though, the model was successful in predicting the heave response of the tow-body, instabilities were observed in the numerical solution. The present study devises a simple approach called lumped mass spring model (LMSM) for the cable formulation. In this work, the traditional LMSM has been modified in two ways. First, by implementing advanced time integration procedures and secondly, use of a modified beam model which uses only translational degrees of freedoms for solving beam equation. A number of time integration procedures, such as Euler, Houbolt, Newmark and HHT-α were implemented in the traditional LMSM and the strength and weakness of each scheme were numerically estimated. In most of the previous studies, hydrodynamic forces acting on the tow-system such as drag and lift etc. are approximated as analytical expression of velocities. This approach restricts these models to use simple cylindrical shaped towed bodies and may not be applicable modern tow systems which are diversed in shape and complexity. Hence, this particular study, hydrodynamic parameters such as drag and lift of the tow-system are estimated using CFD techniques. To achieve this, a RANS based CFD code has been developed. Further, a new convection interpolation scheme for CFD simulation, called BNCUS, which is blend of cell based and node based formulation, was proposed in the study and numerically tested. To account for the fact that simulation takes considerable time in solving fluid dynamic equations, a dedicated parallel computing setup has been developed. Two types of computational parallelisms are explored in the current study, viz; the model for shared memory processors and distributed memory processors. In the present study, shared memory model was used for structural dynamic analysis of towing system, distributed memory one was devised in solving fluid dynamic equations.

‘Modeling and Analysis of Competing Risks Data’

there has been much research on analyzing various forms of competing risks data. Nevertheless, there are several occasions in survival studies, where the existing models and methodologies are inadequate for the analysis competing risks data. ldentifiabilty problem and various types of and censoring induce more complications in the analysis of competing risks data than in classical survival analysis. Parametric models are not adequate for the analysis of competing risks data since the assumptions about the underlying lifetime distributions may not hold well. Motivated by this, in the present study. we develop some new inference procedures, which are completely distribution free for the analysis of competing risks data.

Analyzing and Modeling a Multiparty Outsourcing Environment.

This paper discusses the complexities involved in managing and monitoring the delivery of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment. The complexities identified are grouped into four categories and are tabulated. A discussion on an attempt to model a multiparty outsourcing scenario using UML is also presented and explained using an illustration. Such a model when supplemented by a performance evaluation tool can enable an organization to manage the provision of IT services in a multiparty outsourcing environment more effectively

A novel Sigma–Delta based parallel analogue-to-residue converter

Animportant step in the residue number system(RNS) based signal processing is the conversion of signal into residue domain. Many implementations of this conversion have been proposed for various goals, and one of the implementations is by a direct conversion from an analogue input. A novel approach for analogue-to-residue conversion is proposed in this research using the most popular Sigma–Delta analogue-to-digital converter (SD-ADC). In this approach, the front end is the same as in traditional SD-ADC that uses Sigma–Delta (SD) modulator with appropriate dynamic range, but the filtering is doneby a filter implemented usingRNSarithmetic. Hence, the natural output of the filter is an RNS representation of the input signal. The resolution, conversion speed, hardware complexity and cost of implementation of the proposed SD based analogue-to-residue converter are compared with the existing analogue-to-residue converters based on Nyquist rate ADCs