Some Implications of the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates for the Term Structure and Monetary Policy

In an economy where cash can be stored costlessly (in nominal terms), the nominal interest rate is bounded below by zero. This paper derives the implications of this nonnegativity constraint for the term structure and shows that it induces a nonlinear and convex relation between short- and long-term interest rates. As a result, the long-term rate responds asymmetrically to changes in the short-term rate, and by less than predicted by a benchmark linear model. In particular, a decrease in the short-term rate leads to a decrease in the long-term rate that is smaller in magnitude than the increase in the long-term rate associated with an increase in the short-term rate of the same size. Up to the extent that monetary policy acts by affecting long-term rates through the term structure, its power is considerably reduced at low interest rates. The empirical predictions of the model are examined using data from Japan.

Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Local Interactions

Local interactions refer to social and economic phenomena where individuals' choices are influenced by the choices of others who are "close" to them socially or geographically. This represents a fairly accurate picture of human experience. Furthermore, since local interactions imply particular forms of externalities, their presence typically suggests government action. I survey and discuss existing theoretical work on economies with local interactions and point to areas for further research.

L’éthique de la discussion : Portée et limites des propositions de Karl-Otto Apel

Management sciences and corporate practices of companies bring extensive views on the ethics and the corporate responsibility. The practical experiments try to build, and to make appropriate themselves to itself by the actors of companies, the deontological ethics governed by principles. Dialogue and deliberation are the political frame given to this construction. A question seems then central, that of the ultimate rational foundation of the morality and its normative contents. K.O. Apel’s propositions concerning his ethics of the discussion founded in a pragmatico-transcendental way seems to me to allow an essential advance on the subject. According to Apel, this foundation should supply: 1) The bases of an ultimate rational foundation of the morality and its normative contents, 2) The bases of the universal validity of a principle of justice, solidarity and co responsibility, 3) The bases of an ethics of the responsibility, but not an deontological ethics, governed by principles which could come to complete and to legitimize socio organizational processes and systems of relations which, placed in a new ethical context, could continue. In this article, I try to show in what K.O. Apel’s propositions allow to enrich a reflection opened by the research works in business ethics and in organizational behavior.

Rational Choice on Arbitrary Domains: A Comprehensive Treatment

The rationalizability of a choice function on arbitrary domains by means of a transitive relation has been analyzed thoroughly in the literature. Moreover, characterizations of various versions of consistent rationalizability have appeared in recent contributions. However, not much seems to be known when the coherence property of quasi-transitivity or that of P-acyclicity is imposed on a rationalization. The purpose of this paper is to fill this significant gap. We provide characterizations of all forms of rationalizability involving quasi-transitive or P-acyclical rationalizations on arbitrary domains.

Domain Closedness Conditions and Rational Choice

The rationalizability of a choice function on an arbitrary domain under various coherence properties has received a considerable amount of attention both in the long-established and in the recent literature. Because domain closedness conditions play an important role in much of rational choice theory, we examine the consequences of these requirements on the logical relationships among different versions of rationalizability. It turns out that closedness under intersection does not lead to any results differing from those obtained on arbitrary domains. In contrast, closedness under union allows us to prove an additional implication.

Cognition in Seemingly Riskless Choices and Judgments.

We instillate rational cognition and learning in seemingly riskless choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. the theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status quo bias drawn from a field study.

Les crimes de cruauté contre les animaux: examen des propositions du législateur

Suite à une consultation publique, la ministre de la Justice Anne McLellan a voulu répondre aux groupes et aux citoyens en intégrant, dans le projet de loi omnibus C-17, des amendements visant le droit criminel quant à la cruauté envers les animaux. Le projet de loi étant devenu caduc aux dernières élections fédérales, ces nouvelles dispositions étaient reprises par le projet de loi C-15 qui a lui-même été prorogé à la fin de la première session de la 37 législature. Les modifications qu'il proposait sont intégralement reprises par le projet de loi C-IO, déposé en octobre 2002. Les membres du Sénat renvoyaient récemment ce dernier devant le Comité permanent des affaires juridiques et constitutionnelles, chargé de le scinder en deux afin qu'un nouveau projet de loi, le ClOB, soit bientôt déposé et porte exclusivement sur la cruauté envers les animaux. Devant l'imminence de telles modifications, il est intéressant de se questionner autant sur leur contexte que sur leur portée. Dans une première partie, nous présentons quelques éléments du contexte philosophique et sociétal justifiant l'intérêt grandissant pour la question animale. L'émergence de nouvelles théories morales accordant plus de valeur à l'animal, les critiques et revendications des groupes de pression et des citoyens en général, ainsi que les récentes études démontrant un lien entre la cruauté envers les animaux et la violence dirigée contre l'homme, exigent une remise en question des rapports homme/animal. Une révision de ces différents facteurs contextuels permet de mieux comprendre à quoi répondent ces projets de loi. Dans une deuxième partie, nous relevons plusieurs incohérences du droit actuel afin d'identifier ce qui devrait être modifié par le législateur. Les incohérences sont à plusieurs niveaux: cohabitation de lois visant à protéger l'animal défini comme un être sensible et de lois portant sur la gestion des animaux considérés comme de simples ressources utiles à l'homme; intégration d'infractions visant à protéger l'animal dans la section du Code criminel portant sur les biens; gravité relativement importante des crimes contre les animaux par comparaison à certaines infractions contre la personne; problèmes 11 liés au libellé des infractions particulières et distinctions quant au degré de protection des animaux en fonction de leur intérêt pour 1'homme. Ensuite, le droit proposé sera examiné pour vérifier s'il règlera ces problèmes. Retirées de la partie concernant les biens, les infractions porteront davantage sur la sensibilité de l'animal plutôt que vers son utilité pour l'homme. Au niveau des régimes de responsabilité, l'ambiguïté constitutionnelle entraînée par la présomption du paragraphe 446(3) C.cr. sera évacuée. Quant aux peines, le durcissement prévu risque de rendre les infractions démesurément sévères par comparaison à certains crimes contre la personne. Bien qu'actualisées, les infractions seront toujours nombreuses et anecdotiques. Finalement, les changements de nature strictement juridique sont surtout cosmétiques, alors que la valeur symbolique des projets de loi est, quant à elle, plus significative. En effet, si quelques considérations anthropocentriques sont à l'origine des projets de loi, une reconnaissance de la valeur intrinsèque de l'animal semble aussi les avoir inspirés. Malheureusement, le paradigme de l'animal proposé, encore plus que celui qui est actuellement reconnu, se concilie difficilement avec l'utilisation des animaux pour les fins égocentriques de l'homme

Growing up expectations. Better understanding the expectations of community partners in participatory action research projects

This paper challenges the assumption that youth and youth agencies are in a condition of equality when entering a participatory action research (PAR). By asserting that it is not a state of equality that practitioners nor youth should assume nor be immediately striving for, but a consistently equitable process, this article draws from and reflects on the relationship between young people and researchers who have used a PAR methodology in action oriented projects. Using the UNESCO Growing up in Cities Canada project as a case example, this review extrapolates from and reflects on challenges faced by the project as a whole. Using semi-structured interviews to explore the roles of adults and youth, a number of strategies are highlighted as the techniques used to overcome these challenges. The discussion concludes with further reflection on the complexities of equality and equity, recommending a number of actions that have the potential to create an equitable environment in PAR projects similar to the one examined.

The great asymmetry : America's closest allies in times of war

This dissertation focuses on military cooperation between the United States and its special allies. It argues that alliance expectations determine the level of military cooperation, while two intervening variables - the level of government cohesion and military capabilities - determine its implementation. This study also shows how secondary states deploy strategies to overcome power asymmetries through bilateral concessions, international organizations and by appealing to principle. The focus of the research is on special allies, as they have the most to gain or lose by going along with American plans. My contention is that secondary allies can rarely influence the dominant ally decisively, but they can act autonomously and resist to pressures exerted by the stronger alliance partner. The argument builds on three central claims. First, power asymmetries between allies translate into different assessments of international threats. Second, when disagreements over threats arise, the outcome of intra-alliance bargaining is not necessarily dictated by the preferences of the stronger power. Third, secondary states, as opposed to the dominant partner, face unique constraints when facing major foreign policy decisions, i.e. they face a trade-off between establishing a credible reputation as an alliance partner in a politically feasible way while minimizing domestic audience costs. To examine the theoretical puzzle presented by asymmetric military cooperation, I introduce a causal explanation that builds on neoclassical realism, to zone in on the interaction between systemic and domestic variables. My research makes a contribution to alliance theory and foreign policy decision-making by studying how special allies respond to American decisions in times of threat and how systemic constraints are channeled through state-level variables. To investigate the causal link between threat perception, alliance expectations and domestic constraints, this study relies on the method of structured focused comparison with three detailed case studies. The focus is on the initial decision made by special allies regarding whether or not to participle in joint mobilization with the United States. The decision-making process is presented from the perspective of secondary allied states and measures the explanatory factors that motivated the decision on military cooperation. The case studies are the UK, Canada and Australia’s response to the war in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq during the period of 2001 to 2003.

Toward a rational-choice foundation of non-additive theories

A classical argument of de Finetti holds that Rationality implies Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). In contrast, the Knightian distinction between Risk and Ambiguity suggests that a rational decision maker would obey the SEU paradigm when the information available is in some sense good, and would depart from it when the information available is not good. Unlike de Finetti's, however, this view does not rely on a formal argument. In this paper, we study the set of all information structures that might be availabe to a decision maker, and show that they are of two types: those compatible with SEU theory and those for which SEU theory must fail. We also show that the former correspond to "good" information, while the latter correspond to information that is not good. Thus, our results provide a formalization of the distinction between Risk and Ambiguity. As a consequence of our main theorem (Theorem 2, Section 8), behavior not-conforming to SEU theory is bound to emerge in the presence of Ambiguity. We give two examples of situations of Ambiguity. One concerns the uncertainty on the class of measure zero events, the other is a variation on Ellberg's three-color urn experiment. We also briefly link our results to two other strands of literature: the study of ambiguous events and the problem of unforeseen contingencies. We conclude the paper by re-considering de Finetti's argument in light of our findings.

Le vélo à Montréal: propositions adaptées au climat

Affiche de projet terminal, baccalauréat en Urbanisme. Institut d'urbanisme, Université de Montréal.

"Un homme sur deux est une femme" : intégrer le genre dans les manuels d’histoire de la civilisation occidentale au collégial : quelques propositions

L’histoire des femmes et l’histoire du genre se sont développées conjointement depuis plus d’une trentaine d’années. Pourtant, elles ne sont pas encore pleinement reconnues par les institutions universitaires, et encore moins par les institutions collégiales, les progrès historiographiques dans ces domaines étant exclus du cursus enseigné. Du moins, c’est ce que nous avons observé au niveau collégial au Québec, à la suite d’une évaluation de la trame narrative des manuels francophones et anglophones utilisés pour le cours Histoire de la civilisation occidentale. En effet, grâce à une analyse des chapitres couvrant la période moderne, soit de 1500 à 1800 environ, des manuels les plus utilisés pour l’enseignement de ce cours, nous avons pu établir que l’histoire des femmes et l’histoire du genre ne sont pas intégrées et qu’une différence existe entre la trame du manuel francophone et celle du manuel anglophone. Nous avons constaté que le seul cours d’histoire obligatoire au niveau collégial, qui tend à former des citoyens et des citoyennes éclairé(e)s ainsi qu’à transmettre une culture générale de base, exclut la moitié de la population de leurs enseignements. Aussi ce mémoire propose-t-il trois façons de remédier à cette situation.