Core Retionalizability in Two-Agent Exchange Economies.

We provide a characterization of selection correspondences in two-person exchange economies that can be core rationalized in the sense that there exists a preference profile with some standard properties that generates the observed choices as the set of core elements of the economy for any given initial endowment vector. The approach followed in this paper deviates from the standard rational choice model in that a rationalization in terms of a profile of individual orderings rather than in terms of a single individual or social preference relation is analyzed.

Sampling Interval and estimated Betas : Implications for the Presence of Transitory Components in Stock Prices

We provide a theoretical framework to explain the empirical finding that the estimated betas are sensitive to the sampling interval even when using continuously compounded returns. We suppose that stock prices have both permanent and transitory components. The permanent component is a standard geometric Brownian motion while the transitory component is a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The discrete time representation of the beta depends on the sampling interval and two components labelled \"permanent and transitory betas\". We show that if no transitory component is present in stock prices, then no sampling interval effect occurs. However, the presence of a transitory component implies that the beta is an increasing (decreasing) function of the sampling interval for more (less) risky assets. In our framework, assets are labelled risky if their \"permanent beta\" is greater than their \"transitory beta\" and vice versa for less risky assets. Simulations show that our theoretical results provide good approximations for the means and standard deviations of estimated betas in small samples. Our results can be perceived as indirect evidence for the presence of a transitory component in stock prices, as proposed by Fama and French (1988) and Poterba and Summers (1988).

Projection-Based Statistical Inference in Linear Structural Models with Possibly Weak Instruments

It is well known that standard asymptotic theory is not valid or is extremely unreliable in models with identification problems or weak instruments [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Staiger and Stock (1997, Econometrica), Wang and Zivot (1998, Econometrica), Stock and Wright (2000, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. One possible way out consists here in using a variant of the Anderson-Rubin (1949, Ann. Math. Stat.) procedure. The latter, however, allows one to build exact tests and confidence sets only for the full vector of the coefficients of the endogenous explanatory variables in a structural equation, which in general does not allow for individual coefficients. This problem may in principle be overcome by using projection techniques [Dufour (1997, Econometrica), Dufour and Jasiak (2001, International Economic Review)]. AR-types are emphasized because they are robust to both weak instruments and instrument exclusion. However, these techniques can be implemented only by using costly numerical techniques. In this paper, we provide a complete analytic solution to the problem of building projection-based confidence sets from Anderson-Rubin-type confidence sets. The latter involves the geometric properties of “quadrics” and can be viewed as an extension of usual confidence intervals and ellipsoids. Only least squares techniques are required for building the confidence intervals. We also study by simulation how “conservative” projection-based confidence sets are. Finally, we illustrate the methods proposed by applying them to three different examples: the relationship between trade and growth in a cross-section of countries, returns to education, and a study of production functions in the U.S. economy.

Explaining the Transition Between Exchange Rate Regimes

This paper studies the transition between exchange rate regimes using a Markov chain model with time-varying transition probabilities. The probabilities are parameterized as nonlinear functions of variables suggested by the currency crisis and optimal currency area literature. Results using annual data indicate that inflation, and to a lesser extent, output growth and trade openness help explain the exchange rate regime transition dynamics.

Le droit peut-il être un révélateur de transformations profondes des politiques publiques ? : l’exemple de réformes récentes en France

Jacques Commaille, Directeur, GAPP (Groupe d’analyse des politiques publiques), Professeur, École Normale Supérieure de Cachan, Département de Sciences Sociales

The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation.

This paper studies a dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. the model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. the predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era.

Le nouvel article 14a-8(i)(8) du Securities Exchange Act de 1934 ou l’angoisse contemporaine de la démocratie actionnariale dans les entreprises nord-américaines

La Securities and Exchange Commission vient d’étendre la possibilité pour les sociétés américaines cotées de refuser d’inclure dans les sollicitations de procuration les propositions des actionnaires concernant l’élection des administrateurs. Alors que ce thème fait débat et que l’autorité américaine ne s’était que peu prononcée, celle-ci propose une rédaction nouvelle de l’article 14a-8(i)(8) applicable depuis le 10 janvier 2008. Cette prise de position de la Securities and Exchange Commission offre l’opportunité d’analyser l’état de la gouvernance des entreprises américaines en matière d’élection de la direction et de constater que le pouvoir des actionnaires, bien que restreint par cette modification règlementaire, est revigoré en parallèle par le développement du « majority vote system ». La confrontation de ces deux orientations fait apparaître leur complémentarité sous-jacente et le fait que les actionnaires sont, au final, loin d’être dépourvus de moyens efficaces pour mettre en œuvre un activisme. C’est autour des mutations profondes que subit le paysage juridique entourant le pouvoir des actionnaires au moment de l’élection du conseil d’administration que cet écrit est orienté.

Devoirs et responsabilités des administrateurs d’entreprises d’investissement : les récentes précisions de la Securities and Exchange Commission

La Securities and Exchange Commission a proposé au cours de l’été 2008 un guide permettant aux conseils d’administration des entreprises d’investissement d’appréhender plus complètement les devoirs qui s’imposent à eux dans la gestion – dans le meilleur intérêt des investisseurs – de leurs sociétés. Bien que n’entrainant pas de contraintes nouvelles, cette position de l’autorité boursière américaine rappelle non seulement les multiples obligations qui pèsent sur les administrateurs dans leur contrôle des conseillers en investissements, notamment en matière de « best execution » et de « soft dollars », mais encore que ce sont (encore et toujours) les conflits d’intérêts qui demeurent au centre des préoccupations.