L'intérêt politique chez les adolescents selon les sexes

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

L'échec du Benelux : problème d'intérêt ou d'identité ?

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

Évaluation du prix et de la variance de produits dérivés de taux d'intérêt dans un modèle de Vasiček

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

L'implication de l'autophagie dans la chimiorésistance du neuroblastome et l'intérêt de son inhibition

Le neuroblastome (NB) est une tumeur fréquente et agressive du jeune enfant. Les tumeurs de haut grade de forme métastatique, généralement développées chez l'enfant de plus de 1 an, sont associées à une importante mortalité malgré un traitement lourd incluant une chimiothérapie à haute dose. La chimiorésistance est donc un problème majeur qui caractérise ces NB de haut grade. Une des hypothèses pour expliquer cette chimiorésistance est celle de l’activation de l’autophagie, un mécanisme auquel recourent les cellules afin de faire face aux situations de stress. D’ailleurs, plusieurs études ont démontré que l'autophagie était activée à la suite des thérapies anticancéreuses. Son inhibition pourrait donc représenter une stratégie thérapeutique très intéressante pour le traitement de cancers. Le but de ce projet de recherche a été de mettre en évidence l'importance de l'autophagie dans les cellules du NB ainsi que l'effet de son inhibition sur la sensibilité des cellules du NB à la chimiothérapie conventionnelle. La présence d'autophagie dans les cellules de NB et sa valeur pronostic ont été évaluées par une étude immunohistochimique et par western blot sur 184 tumeurs patient. Ensuite, dans le but de déterminer l'effet de la chimiothérapie conventionnelle sur le niveau d'autophagie, des études in vitro sur 6 lignées cellulaires ont été effectuées utilisant des tests de mesure d'autophagie (MDC, monodanylcadaverine), de viabilité cellulaire (MTT) et de western blot. Celles ci ont été suivies par des tests d'inhibition de l'autophagie par deux méthodes: l’inactivation du gène ATG5 par un lentivirus contenant un shRNA ciblant ATG5 ou de l'hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), un inhibiteur pharmacologique de l’autophagie. Cette inhibition a été testée seule ou en combinaison avec une chimiothérapie conventionnelle dans le but de déterminer le rôle de l'autophagie dans la sensibilisation des cellules de NB à la chimiothérapie. Ensuite, l’intérêt de l’inhibition de l’autophagie a été évalué sur des modèles murins. Enfin, le niveau d'autophagie a été testé dans des cellules souches de NB. Notre étude a démonté que l'autophagie est présente à un niveau basal dans une majorité des NB mais qu'elle ne représentait pas un facteur pronostic dans ce type de tumeur. Les différentes chimiothérapies testées induisent une augmentation de l'autophagie dans les cellules du NB. Les deux tests d'inhibition ont démontré in vitro que l'autophagie participe à la résistance des cellules aux traitements chimiothérapeutiques classiques du NB. Le blocage de l’autophagie in vivo augmente l’efficacité de la chimiothérapie, cependant certaines données associées au traitement par HCQ devront être complétées. Cette étude démontre que l'inhibition de l'autophagie en combinaison avec la chimiothérapie classique représente une approche thérapeutique prometteuse dans le traitement du NB.

Intérêt et droit à la liberté des animaux non‐humains

Dans le cadre d’une théorie des droits basée sur les intérêts, la question du droit à la liberté des animaux non-humains nécessite de déterminer préalablement si ces animaux ont un intérêt intrinsèque à être libres. Cet article vise à faire le point sur le lien entre liberté et bien-être animal au moyen d’une analyse détaillée de deux positions opposées sur la question, celles d’Alasdair Cochrane et de Valéry Giroux. Après avoir soulevé les faiblesses de chacune des argumentations présentées par ces auteurs, je soutiendrai que, pour les animaux sentients, la liberté n’est qu’un bien instrumental à l’absence de souffrance et donc, qu’un droit à ne pas souffrir suffirait à protéger leur intérêt à être libres.

Latent Variable Models for Stochastic Discount Factors.

Latent variable models in finance originate both from asset pricing theory and time series analysis. These two strands of literature appeal to two different concepts of latent structures, which are both useful to reduce the dimension of a statistical model specified for a multivariate time series of asset prices. In the CAPM or APT beta pricing models, the dimension reduction is cross-sectional in nature, while in time-series state-space models, dimension is reduced longitudinally by assuming conditional independence between consecutive returns, given a small number of state variables. In this paper, we use the concept of Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) or pricing kernel as a unifying principle to integrate these two concepts of latent variables. Beta pricing relations amount to characterize the factors as a basis of a vectorial space for the SDF. The coefficients of the SDF with respect to the factors are specified as deterministic functions of some state variables which summarize their dynamics. In beta pricing models, it is often said that only the factorial risk is compensated since the remaining idiosyncratic risk is diversifiable. Implicitly, this argument can be interpreted as a conditional cross-sectional factor structure, that is, a conditional independence between contemporaneous returns of a large number of assets, given a small number of factors, like in standard Factor Analysis. We provide this unifying analysis in the context of conditional equilibrium beta pricing as well as asset pricing with stochastic volatility, stochastic interest rates and other state variables. We address the general issue of econometric specifications of dynamic asset pricing models, which cover the modern literature on conditionally heteroskedastic factor models as well as equilibrium-based asset pricing models with an intertemporal specification of preferences and market fundamentals. We interpret various instantaneous causality relationships between state variables and market fundamentals as leverage effects and discuss their central role relative to the validity of standard CAPM-like stock pricing and preference-free option pricing.

Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters.

In this paper, we characterize the asymmetries of the smile through multiple leverage effects in a stochastic dynamic asset pricing framework. The dependence between price movements and future volatility is introduced through a set of latent state variables. These latent variables can capture not only the volatility risk and the interest rate risk which potentially affect option prices, but also any kind of correlation risk and jump risk. The standard financial leverage effect is produced by a cross-correlation effect between the state variables which enter into the stochastic volatility process of the stock price and the stock price process itself. However, we provide a more general framework where asymmetric implied volatility curves result from any source of instantaneous correlation between the state variables and either the return on the stock or the stochastic discount factor. In order to draw the shapes of the implied volatility curves generated by a model with latent variables, we specify an equilibrium-based stochastic discount factor with time non-separable preferences. When we calibrate this model to empirically reasonable values of the parameters, we are able to reproduce the various types of implied volatility curves inferred from option market data.

La finance islamique: fondements, theorie et realite.

L’Islam interdit le riba , mot arabe signifiant à la fois usure et intérêt. L’interdiction du rib figure dans la loi islamique, née dans l’Arabie du Moyen Âge. Elle est à la base de la finance islamique qui connut une expansion remarquable durant la deuxième moitié du XX e siècle. Nous nous interrogeons sur les origines de cette interdiction, sur les problèmes que connaît actuellement la finance islamique et sur ses perspectives d’avenir.

On the Political Economy of Sequential Reforms

This paper proposes an explanation for why efficient reforms are not carried out when losers have the power to block their implementation, even though compensating them is feasible. We construct a signaling model with two-sided incomplete information in which a government faces the task of sequentially implementing two reforms by bargaining with interest groups. The organization of interest groups is endogenous. Compensations are distortionary and government types differ in the concern about distortions. We show that, when compensations are allowed to be informative about the government’s type, there is a bias against the payment of compensations and the implementation of reforms. This is because paying high compensations today provides incentives for some interest groups to organize and oppose subsequent reforms with the only purpose of receiving a transfer. By paying lower compensations, governments attempt to prevent such interest groups from organizing. However, this comes at the cost of reforms being blocked by interest groups with relatively high losses.

Explaining the Persistence of Commodity Prices

This paper extends the Competitive Storage Model by incorporating prominent features of the production process and financial markets. A major limitation of this basic model is that it cannot successfully explain the degree of serial correlation observed in actual data. The proposed extensions build on the observation that in order to generate a high degree of price persistence, a model must incorporate features such that agents are willing to hold stocks more often than predicted by the basic model. We therefore allow unique characteristics of the production and trading mechanisms to provide the required incentives. Specifically, the proposed models introduce (i) gestation lags in production with heteroskedastic supply shocks, (ii) multiperiod forward contracts, and (iii) a convenience return to inventory holding. The rational expectations solutions for twelve commodities are numerically solved. Simulations are then employed to assess the effects of the above extensions on the time series properties of commodity prices. Results indicate that each of the features above partially account for the persistence and occasional spikes observed in actual data. Evidence is presented that the precautionary demand for stocks might play a substantial role in the dynamics of commodity prices.

Uncovering Financial Markets Beliefs About Inflation Targets

This paper exploits the term structure of interest rates to develop testable economic restrictions on the joint process of long-term interest rates and inflation when the latter is subject to a targeting policy by the Central Bank. Two competing models that econometrically describe agents’ inferences about inflation targets are developed and shown to generate distinct predictions on the behavior of interest rates. In an empirical application to the Canadian inflation target zone, results indicate that agents perceive the band to be substantially narrower than officially announced and asymmetric around the stated mid-point. The latter result (i) suggests that the monetary authority attaches different weights to positive and negative deviations from the central target, and (ii) challenges on empirical grounds the assumption, frequently made in the literature, that the policy maker’s loss function is symmetric (usually a quadratic function) around a desired inflation value.

Non-Commitment and Savings in Dynamic Risk-Sharing Contracts

We characterize the solution to a model of consumption smoothing using financing under non-commitment and savings. We show that, under certain conditions, these two different instruments complement each other perfectly. If the rate of time preference is equal to the interest rate on savings, perfect smoothing can be achieved in finite time. We also show that, when random revenues are generated by periodic investments in capital through a concave production function, the level of smoothing achieved through financial contracts can influence the productive investment efficiency. As long as financial contracts cannot achieve perfect smoothing, productive investment will be used as a complementary smoothing device.

The Backing of Government Debt and the Price Level

This paper studies the interdependence between fiscal and monetary policies, and their joint role in the determination of the price level. The government is characterized by a long-run fiscal policy rule whereby a given fraction of the outstanding debt, say d, is backed by the present discounted value of current and future primary surpluses. The remaining debt is backed by seigniorage revenue. The parameter d characterizes the interdependence between fiscal and monetary authorities. It is shown that in a standard monetary economy, this policy rule implies that the price level depends not only on the money stock, but also on the proportion of debt that is backed with money. Empirical estimates of d are obtained for OECD countries using data on nominal consumption, monetary base, and debt. Results indicate that debt plays only a minor role in the determination of the price level in these economies. Estimates of d correlate well with institutional measures of central bank independence.

Finite-Sample Simulation-Based Inference in VAR Models with Applications to Order Selection and Causality Testing

Statistical tests in vector autoregressive (VAR) models are typically based on large-sample approximations, involving the use of asymptotic distributions or bootstrap techniques. After documenting that such methods can be very misleading even with fairly large samples, especially when the number of lags or the number of equations is not small, we propose a general simulation-based technique that allows one to control completely the level of tests in parametric VAR models. In particular, we show that maximized Monte Carlo tests [Dufour (2002)] can provide provably exact tests for such models, whether they are stationary or integrated. Applications to order selection and causality testing are considered as special cases. The technique developed is applied to quarterly and monthly VAR models of the U.S. economy, comprising income, money, interest rates and prices, over the period 1965-1996.