Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

Evaluation of a treatment program for individuals with an intellectual disability who have high risk behaviours

In the past two decades numerous programs have emerged to treat individuals with developmental disabilities who have sexual offending behaviours. There has, however been very few studies that systematically examine the effectiveness of long term treatment with this population. The present research examines the therapeutic outcomes of a multi-modal behaviour approach with six individuals with intellectual disabilities previously charged with sexual assault. The participants also exhibited severe behavioural challenges that included verbal aggression, physical aggression, destruction and self-injury. These six participants (5 males, 1 female) were admitted to a Long Term Residential Treatment Program (LTRTP), due to the severity of their behaviours and due to their lack of treatment success in other programs. Individualized treatment plans focused on the reduction of maladaptive behaviours and the enhancing of skills such as positive coping strategies, socio-sexual knowledge, life skills, recreation and leisure skills. The treatment program also included psychiatric, psychological, medical, behavioural and educational interventions. The participants remained in the Long Term Residential Treatment Program (LTRTP) program from 181 to 932 days (average of 1.5 years). Pre and post treatment evaluations were conducted using the following tools: frequency of target behaviours, Psychopathology Inventory for Mentally Retarded Adults (PIMRA), Emotional Problems Scale (EPS), Socio-Sexual Knowledge and Attitudes Assessment Tool (SSKAAT-R) and Quality of Life Questionnaire (QOL-Q). Recidivism rates and the need for re-hospitalization were also noted for each participant. By offering high levels of individualized interventions, all six participants showed a 37 % rate of reduction in maladaptive behaviours with zero to low rates of inappropriate sexualbehaviour, there were no psychiatric hospitalizations, and there was no recidivism for 5 of 6 participants. In addition, medication was reduced. Mental health scores on the PIMRA were reduced across all participants by 25 % and scores on the Quality of Life Questionnaire increased for all participants by an average of 72 %. These findings add to and build upon the existing literature on long term treatment benefits for individuals with a intellectual disability who sexually offend. By utilizing an individualized and multimodal treatment approach to reduce severe behavioural challenges, not only can the maladaptive behaviours be reduced, but adaptive behaviours can be increased, mental health concerns can be managed, and overall quality of life can be improved.

Six-month outcomes of a multi-campus smoking cessation contest

Background: Up to 40% of North American post-secondary students smoke at least occasionally, and most want to quit. Given students' preferences for free, easy-to-access, self-directed, convenient cessation methods, a motivational, incentive-based cessation contest may be an effective way to assist students to quit. The current study describes 3- and 6-month outcomes experienced by post-secondary student smokers who entered the 'Let's Make A Deal!' contest. Methodology: Contestants from five university campuses who chose to quit completely ('Quit For Good') or reduce their tobacco consumption by 50% ('Keep The Count') were invited to participate in a study of the contest. Three and six months after registration, participants were contacted by phone to assess their smoking and quitting behaviours. Qualitative and quantitative measures were collected, including weekly tobacco consumption, efficacy to resist temptations to smoke, use of quitting aids, and strategies to cope with withdrawal. Quitting was assessed using 7-day point prevalence and continuous abstinence. Results: Seventy-four (64.9%) of the 114 participants recruited for the study completed the follow-ups. Over 31 % of participants who entered Quit For Good and 23.5% of participants who entered Keep The Count were identified as quitters at the 6-month follow-up. Among the quitters, 45.5% experienced sustained abstinence from smoking for the 6-month duration of the study. Keep The Count contestants reduced their tobacco consumption by 57.2% at 3-month follow-up and sustained some of this reduction through to the 6-month follow-up. Qualitative data provides insights into how quitters coped with withdrawal and what hampered continuing smokers' efforts to quit. Significance: A motivational, incentive-based contest for post-secondary students can facilitate both smoking cessation and harm reduction. The contest environment, incentives, resources, and "buddies" provide positive structural and social supports to help smokers overcome potential barriers to quitting, successfully stop smoking, and manage potential triggers to relapse. The contest cessation rates are higher than the typical 5-7% associated with unassisted quitting.

Evaluation of self-esteem before and after preceptorship experience for student nurses

seventy-eight diploma nursing students participated (from a class of 112 students) in completing the Coopersmith Self-Esteem Inventory administered by mailed questionnaire before and at the end of the preceptorship. Also a rating form was completed by 70 preceptors to determine how the observed level of self-confidence compared to self-reported self-esteem at the end of the preceptorship program. As well, four preceptors and five preceptees completed weekly diaries and six preceptors and six preceptees participated in weekly phone interviews with the investigator. Overall, self-esteem went up after the preceptorship. A comparison was made between the pretest and posttest using the t-test (dependent paired samples). Significant difference (p=.05) was demonstrated. Self-confidence ratings by preceptors were inaccurate as they had no relation to the self-reported self-esteem level of students. The diaries and interviews of preceptors and preceptees were a rich source of data as well.

Outcome Evaluation of a Campus-Based Quit and Win Contest

This study examined abstinence outcomes of a provincial, campus-based Quit and Win contest relative to contestants’ assessments of the prize, buddy support, social support network, and emails. Of the 288 participants providing baseline data, 201 self-reported their smoking and quitting behaviours, use of quit aides, and perceptions of contest components. On 5-point scales, perceived values of the contest prize, buddy support, social support network and email were 4.42, 3.95, 3.89, and 3.46 respectively. Intention to treat analysis showed 27.8% of participants achieved 6-week contest-period abstinence; 19.8% achieved 3-month sustained abstinence. Odds of achieving 3-month abstinence were influenced by age (OR = 1.10, CI =1.03, 1.18) and use of pharmacological quit aides (OR = 0.42, CI = 0.20, 0.88), but not smoking behaviours or contest components. Contest prizes and support were valued, but played an uncertain role in quitting success. Future research might examine their roles in contestant recruitment or retention.