17 resultados para travel time estimation

em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland


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Today cloud computing is the next stage in development information-oriented society in field of information technologies. Great attention is paid to cloud computing in general, but the lack of scientific consideration to components brings to the problem, that not all aspects are well examined. This thesis is an attempt to consider Platform as a Service (a technology of providing development environment through the Internet) from divergent angles. Technical characteristics, costs, time, estimation of effectiveness, risks, strategies that can be applied, migration process, advantages and disadvantages and the future of the approach are examined to get the overall picture of cloud platforms. During the work literature study was used to examine Platform as a Service, characteristics of existent cloud platforms were explored and a model of a typical software development company was developed to create a scenario of migration to cloud technologies. The research showed that besides all virtues in reducing costs and time, cloud platforms have some significant obstacles in adoption. Privacy, security and insufficient legislation impede the concept to be widespread.

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Pulseri on laite, joka tuottaa noin 10 MHz:n taajuudella olevan sähköisen pulssin, joka ohjataan kiteeseen. Kide lähettää korkeataajuuksisen ääniaallon ja toimii samalla vastaanottimena kaikuna heijastuneille ääniaalloille. Kide ja membraanikalvo ovat vedessä. Ääniaalto heijastuu takaisin suodatusmembraanikalvosta, jolla on tarkoitus erotella epäpuhtauksia. Membraanikalvo ja kide ovat millimetrin etäisyydellä toisistaan ja ääniaalloilla kestää noin 1,3 mikrosekuntia kulkea kiteestä membraanikalvon pinnalle ja siitä kaikuna takaisin kiteeseen. Saadaksemme luotettavia tuloksia ääniaallon kulkuajasta, kiteen tulee olla värähtelemättömässä tilassa silloin, kun kaikuna palaava pulssi saapuu takaisin. Työssä keskitytään kiteen vaimentamiseen mahdollisimman nopeasti lähetetyn pulssin jälkeen ja siihen liittyviin ongelmiin.

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This thesis investigates how mobile technology usage could help to bring Information and communication technologies (ICT) to the people in developing countries. Some people in developing countries have access to use ICT while other people do not have such opportunity. This digital divide among people is present in many developing countries where computers and the Internet are difficult to access. The Internet provides information that can increase productivity and enable markets to function more efficiently. The Internet reduces information travel time and provides more efficient ways for firms and workers to operate. ICT and the Internet can provide opportunities for economic growth and productivity in developing countries. This indicates that it is very important to bridge the digital divide and increase Internet connections in developing countries. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how can mobile technology and mobile services help to bridge the digital divide in developing countries. Theoretical background of this thesis consists of a collection of articles and reports. Theoretical material was gathered by going through literature on the digital divide, mobile technology and mobile application development. The empirical research was conducted by sending a questionnaire by email to a selection of application developers located in developing countries. The questionnaire’s purpose was to gather qualitative information concerning mobile application development in developing countries. This thesis main result suggests that mobile phones and mobile technology usage can help to bridge the digital divide in developing countries. This study finds that mobile technology provides one of the best tools that can help to bridge the digital divide in developing countries. Mobile technology can bring affordable ICT to people who do not have access to use computers. Smartphones can provide Internet connection, mobile services and mobile applications to a rapidly growing number of mobile phone users in developing countries. New low-cost smartphones empower people in developing countries to have access to information through the Internet. Mobile technology has the potential to help to bridge the digital divide in developing countries where a vast amount of people own mobile phones.

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Gas-liquid mass transfer is an important issue in the design and operation of many chemical unit operations. Despite its importance, the evaluation of gas-liquid mass transfer is not straightforward due to the complex nature of the phenomena involved. In this thesis gas-liquid mass transfer was evaluated in three different gas-liquid reactors in a traditional way by measuring the volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa). The studied reactors were a bubble column with a T-junction two-phase nozzle for gas dispersion, an industrial scale bubble column reactor for the oxidation of tetrahydroanthrahydroquinone and a concurrent downflow structured bed.The main drawback of this approach is that the obtained correlations give only the average volumetric mass transfer coefficient, which is dependent on average conditions. Moreover, the obtained correlations are valid only for the studied geometry and for the chemical system used in the measurements. In principle, a more fundamental approach is to estimate the interfacial area available for mass transfer from bubble size distributions obtained by solution of population balance equations. This approach has been used in this thesis by developing a population balance model for a bubble column together with phenomenological models for bubble breakage and coalescence. The parameters of the bubble breakage rate and coalescence rate models were estimated by comparing the measured and calculated bubble sizes. The coalescence models always have at least one experimental parameter. This is because the bubble coalescence depends on liquid composition in a way which is difficult to evaluate using known physical properties. The coalescence properties of some model solutions were evaluated by measuring the time that a bubble rests at the free liquid-gas interface before coalescing (the so-calledpersistence time or rest time). The measured persistence times range from 10 msup to 15 s depending on the solution. The coalescence was never found to be instantaneous. The bubble oscillates up and down at the interface at least a coupleof times before coalescence takes place. The measured persistence times were compared to coalescence times obtained by parameter fitting using measured bubble size distributions in a bubble column and a bubble column population balance model. For short persistence times, the persistence and coalescence times are in good agreement. For longer persistence times, however, the persistence times are at least an order of magnitude longer than the corresponding coalescence times from parameter fitting. This discrepancy may be attributed to the uncertainties concerning the estimation of energy dissipation rates, collision rates and mechanisms and contact times of the bubbles.

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Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

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This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

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Bone strain plays a major role as the activation signal for the bone (re)modeling process, which is vital for keeping bones healthy. Maintaining high bone mineral density reduces the chances of fracture in the event of an accident. Numerous studies have shown that bones can be strengthened with physical exercise. Several hypotheses have asserted that a stronger osteogenic (bone producing) effect results from dynamic exercise than from static exercise. These previous studies are based on short-term empirical research, which provide the motivation for justifying the experimental results with a solid mathematical background. The computer simulation techniques utilized in this work allow for non-invasive bone strain estimation during physical activity at any bone site within the human skeleton. All models presented in the study are threedimensional and actuated by muscle models to replicate the real conditions accurately. The objective of this work is to determine and present loading-induced bone strain values resulting from physical activity. It includes a comparison of strain resulting from four different gym exercises (knee flexion, knee extension, leg press, and squat) and walking, with the results reported for walking and jogging obtained from in-vivo measurements described in the literature. The objective is realized primarily by carrying out flexible multibody dynamics computer simulations. The dissertation combines the knowledge of finite element analysis and multibody simulations with experimental data and information available from medical field literature. Measured subject-specific motion data was coupled with forward dynamics simulation to provide natural skeletal movement. Bone geometries were defined using a reverse engineering approach based on medical imaging techniques. Both computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging were utilized to explore modeling differences. The predicted tibia bone strains during walking show good agreement with invivo studies found in the literature. Strain measurements were not available for gym exercises; therefore, the strain results could not be validated. However, the values seem reasonable when compared to available walking and running invivo strain measurements. The results can be used for exercise equipment design aimed at strengthening the bones as well as the muscles during workout. Clinical applications in post fracture recovery exercising programs could also be the target. In addition, the methodology introduced in this study, can be applied to investigate the effect of weightlessness on astronauts, who often suffer bone loss after long time spent in the outer space.

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The Travel and Tourism field is undergoing changes due to the rapid development of information technology and digital services. Online travel has profoundly changed the way travel and tourism organizations interact with their customers. Mobile technology such as mobile services for pocket devices (e.g. mobile phones) has the potential to take this development even further. Nevertheless, many issues have been highlighted since the early days of mobile services development (e.g. the lack of relevance, ease of use of many services). However, the wide adoption of smartphones and the mobile Internet in many countries as well as the formation of so-called ecosystems between vendors of mobile technology indicate that many of these issues have been overcome. Also when looking at the numbers of downloaded applications related to travel in application stores like Google Play, it seems obvious that mobile travel and tourism services are adopted and used by many individuals. However, as business is expected to start booming in the mobile era, many issues have a tendency to be overlooked. Travelers are generally on the go and thus services that work effectively in mobile settings (e.g. during a trip) are essential. Hence, the individuals’ perceived drivers and barriers to use mobile travel and tourism services in on-site or during trip settings seem particularly valuable to understand; thus this is one primary aim of the thesis. We are, however, also interested in understanding different types of mobile travel service users. Individuals may indeed be very different in their propensity to adopt and use technology based innovations (services). Research is also switching more from investigating issues of mobile service development to understanding individuals’ usage patterns of mobile services. But designing new mobile services may be a complex matter from a service provider perspective. Hence, our secondary aim is to provide insights into drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service development from a holistic business model perspective. To accomplish the research objectives seven different studies have been conducted over a time period from 2002 – 2013. The studies are founded on and contribute to theories within diffusion of innovations, technology acceptance, value creation, user experience and business model development. Several different research methods are utilized: surveys, field and laboratory experiments and action research. The findings suggest that a successful mobile travel and tourism service is a service which supports one or several mobile motives (needs) of individuals such as spontaneous needs, time-critical arrangements, efficiency ambitions, mobility related needs (location features) and entertainment needs. The service could be customized to support travelers’ style of traveling (e.g. organized travel or independent travel) and should be easy to use, especially easy to take into use (access, install and learn) during a trip, without causing security concerns and/or financial risks for the user. In fact, the findings suggest that the most prominent barrier to the use of mobile travel and tourism services during a trip is an individual’s perceived financial cost (entry costs and usage costs). It should, however, be noted that regulations are put in place in the EU regarding data roaming prices between European countries and national telecom operators are starting to see ‘international data subscriptions’ as a sales advantage (e.g. Finnish Sonera provides a data subscription in the Baltic and Nordic region at the same price as in Finland), which will enhance the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services also in international contexts. In order to speed up the adoption rate travel service providers could consider e.g. more local initiatives of free Wi-Fi networks, development of services that can be used, at least to some extent, in an offline mode (do not require costly network access during a trip) and cooperation with telecom operators (e.g. lower usage costs for travelers who use specific mobile services or travel with specific vendors). Furthermore, based on a developed framework for user experience of mobile trip arrangements, the results show that a well-designed mobile site and/or native application, which preferably supports integration with other mobile services, is a must for true mobile presence. In fact, travel service providers who want to build a relationship with their customers need to consider a downloadable native application, but in order to be found through the mobile channel and make contact with potential new customers, a mobile website should be available. Moreover, we have made a first attempt with cluster analysis to identify user categories of mobile services in a travel and tourism context. The following four categories were identified: info-seekers, checkers, bookers and all-rounders. For example “all-rounders”, represented primarily by individuals who use their pocket device for almost any of the investigated mobile travel services, constituted primarily of 23 to 50 year old males with high travel frequency and great online experience. The results also indicate that travel service providers will increasingly become multi-channel providers. To manage multiple online channels, closely integrated and hybrid online platforms for different devices, supporting all steps in a traveler process should be considered. It could be useful for travel service providers to focus more on developing browser-based mobile services (HTML5-solutions) than native applications that work only with specific operating systems and for specific devices. Based on an action research study and utilizing a holistic business model framework called STOF we found that HTML5 as an emerging platform, at least for now, has some limitations regarding the development of the user experience and monetizing the application. In fact, a native application store (e.g. Google Play) may be a key mediator in the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services both from a traveler and a service provider perspective. Moreover, it must be remembered that many device and mobile operating system developers want service providers to specifically create services for their platforms and see native applications as a strategic advantage to sell more devices of a certain kind. The mobile telecom industry has moved into a battle of ecosystems where device makers, developers of operating systems and service developers are to some extent forced to choose their development platforms.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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In this work, image based estimation methods, also known as direct methods, are studied which avoid feature extraction and matching completely. Cost functions use raw pixels as measurements and the goal is to produce precise 3D pose and structure estimates. The cost functions presented minimize the sensor error, because measurements are not transformed or modified. In photometric camera pose estimation, 3D rotation and translation parameters are estimated by minimizing a sequence of image based cost functions, which are non-linear due to perspective projection and lens distortion. In image based structure refinement, on the other hand, 3D structure is refined using a number of additional views and an image based cost metric. Image based estimation methods are particularly useful in conditions where the Lambertian assumption holds, and the 3D points have constant color despite viewing angle. The goal is to improve image based estimation methods, and to produce computationally efficient methods which can be accomodated into real-time applications. The developed image-based 3D pose and structure estimation methods are finally demonstrated in practise in indoor 3D reconstruction use, and in a live augmented reality application.

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More discussion is required on how and which types of biomass should be used to achieve a significant reduction in the carbon load released into the atmosphere in the short term. The energy sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters and thus its role in climate change mitigation is important. Replacing fossil fuels with biomass has been a simple way to reduce carbon emissions because the carbon bonded to biomass is considered as carbon neutral. With this in mind, this thesis has the following objectives: (1) to study the significance of the different GHG emission sources related to energy production from peat and biomass, (2) to explore opportunities to develop more climate friendly biomass energy options and (3) to discuss the importance of biogenic emissions of biomass systems. The discussion on biogenic carbon and other GHG emissions comprises four case studies of which two consider peat utilization, one forest biomass and one cultivated biomasses. Various different biomass types (peat, pine logs and forest residues, palm oil, rapeseed oil and jatropha oil) are used as examples to demonstrate the importance of biogenic carbon to life cycle GHG emissions. The biogenic carbon emissions of biomass are defined as the difference in the carbon stock between the utilization and the non-utilization scenarios of biomass. Forestry-drained peatlands were studied by using the high emission values of the peatland types in question to discuss the emission reduction potential of the peatlands. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential (GWP) values. Based on the results, the climate impact of the peat production can be reduced by selecting high-emission-level peatlands for peat production. The comparison of the two different types of forest biomass in integrated ethanol production in pulp mill shows that the type of forest biomass impacts the biogenic carbon emissions of biofuel production. The assessment of cultivated biomasses demonstrates that several selections made in the production chain significantly affect the GHG emissions of biofuels. The emissions caused by biofuel can exceed the emissions from fossil-based fuels in the short term if biomass is in part consumed in the process itself and does not end up in the final product. Including biogenic carbon and other land use carbon emissions into the carbon footprint calculations of biofuel reveals the importance of the time frame and of the efficiency of biomass carbon content utilization. As regards the climate impact of biomass energy use, the net impact on carbon stocks (in organic matter of soils and biomass), compared to the impact of the replaced energy source, is the key issue. Promoting renewable biomass regardless of biogenic GHG emissions can increase GHG emissions in the short term and also possibly in the long term.

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The aim of this work is to apply approximate Bayesian computation in combination with Marcov chain Monte Carlo methods in order to estimate the parameters of tuberculosis transmission. The methods are applied to San Francisco data and the results are compared with the outcomes of previous works. Moreover, a methodological idea with the aim to reduce computational time is also described. Despite the fact that this approach is proved to work in an appropriate way, further analysis is needed to understand and test its behaviour in different cases. Some related suggestions to its further enhancement are described in the corresponding chapter.

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Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.