A Feasibility Study of a Pelleting Plant as an Option for By Product Upgrading in Wood-Processing Industry

Tämän kannattavuustutkimuksen lähtökohtana oli se, että Yhtyneet Sahat Oy:n Kaukaan sahalla ja Luumäen jatkojalostuslaitoksella haluttiin selvittää pellettitehtaan kannattavuus nykyisessä markkinatilanteessa. Tämä työon luonteeltaan teknis-taloudellinen selvitys eli ns. feasibility study. Pelletöintiprosessi on tekniikaltaan yksinkertainen eikä edellytä korkea teknologian laitteita. Toimiala on maailmanlaajuisesti varsin uusi. Suomessa pellettimarkkinat ovat vielä pienet ja kehittymättömät, mutta kasvua on viime vuosina tapahtunut. Valtaosa kotimaan tuotannosta menee vientiin. Investoinnin laskentaprosessissa saadut tuotannon alkuarvot sekä kustannusrakenteen määrittelyt ovat perustana varsinaisille kannattavuuslaskelmille. Laskelmista on selvitetty investointeihin liittyvät yleisimmät taloudelliset tunnusluvut ja herkimpiä muuttujia on tutkittu ja pohdittu herkkyysanalyysiä apuna käyttäen.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Quality management of outsourcing welded structure: case China

For any international companies who wish to enter the Chinese market, quality is base on the fundamental. The companies are coming to realize the importance of quality gradually, thus companies have been put the quality problems on the agenda. The competitiveness of companies comes from quality. Quality is the key to success, and it can decide that the companies can be accepted or eliminated by the market. Due to the obvious benefits, the demand of the method of how to achieve high quality of product keeps growing. During achieving the high quality process, the main troubles come from the impact between Eastern and Western culture. Chinese culture which is different with Western one have lasted as long as five thousand years. Such a culture deeply rooted in the hearts of Chinese people, and effected generation after generation of Chinese people's working style and ways of thinking. This thesis determines how to find a good fit point between Eastern and Western culture. Doing right thing by the right way. The nature of improving quality is improving management level in fact. "How to manage, who should be managed", the thesis explains the basic and best option to achieve those. It describes three-dimension-style management to monitoring the working process. This kind of management style can inspect production process from horizontal and vertical direction. In this management way, it defines effective evaluation system to every subcontractor, and makes the companies to achieve the ultimate goal - satisfy quality. Because of the importance of human factor, the thesis determines the range of training of the inspector and welder due to the current situation of China. The results show that in order to reach reliable training effective evaluation, not only the quality of the human but also the ultimate goal of product quality.

Alusöljyvahingon seurauksena rantautuvan öljyn lajitteluohjeiston muodostaminen

Työn tärkeimpänä päämääränä oli muodostaa öljyvahinkojätejakeille yksityiskohtaiset ja käytännön olosuhteissa mahdollisimman hyvin toimivat lajitteluohjeet. Lähtökohtana oli se, että edeltävien lajitteluohjeiden soveltuvuutta haluttiin tarkastella useista eri näkökulmista, kuten muodostuvien kustannusten kannalta. Työn muut tavoitteet olivat: jäteastioiden määrän ja laadun selvitys sekä lainsäädännön asettamien rajoitteiden selvittäminen. Riskijäte rajattiin työn ulkopuolelle. Tutkimus toteutettiin pääasiassa kirjallisiin lähteisiin, sähköpostikyselyihin ja puhelinhaastatteluihin perustuvien tietojen avulla. Tärkeimmäksi selvitettäväksi seikaksi osoittautui lajittelusta aiheutuvien kustannusten määrittäminen. Etenkin käsittelykustannuksista saatiin viitteitä optimaalisesta lajitteluvaihtoehdosta. Taloudellisessa tarkastelussa käytiin läpi öljyvahinkojätteiden kulkeutuminen rannalta käsittelyyn saakka, jolloin eri vaihtoehtojen eroavaisuudet saatiin selville. Taloudellisen tarkastelun perusteella paras vaihtoehto oli lajitellun jätteen käsittely siirrettävällä termodesorptiolaitoksella yhdistettynä Kotkan hyötyvoimalaitokseen. Tämän perusteella voidaan päätellä, että öljyinen maa-aines ja öljyinen sekajäte kannattaa käsitellä erillisinä jakeina. Tällöin öljyinen maa-aines ja öljyinen sekajäte kannattaa myös lajitella omiin jakeisiinsa. Keräysastioista on vaikeaa antaa suosituksia ilman riittävän kattavia kenttäkokeita. Taloudellisessa tarkastelussa muoviastiat osoittautuivat edullisimmaksi vaihtoehdoksi. Monissa selvityksissä on öljyvahinkojätteiden käsittelyvaihtoehdoksi valittu Riihimäen Ekokem Oy Ab. Se tuli kuitenkin huomattavasti kalliimmaksi kuin siirrettävän termodesorptiolaitoksen sisältävät laskuesimerkit, joten myös muita vaihtoehtoja kannattaisi harkita. Muita kuin muovisia keräysastioita tulisi vielä testata käytännön öljyntorjuntaharjoituksissa, jotta niiden lopullinen käyttökelpoisuus varmistuu. Harjoitukset tulisi suorittaa mahdollisimman vaihtelevissa sää- ja maasto-olosuhteissa, jotta saadaan tarpeeksi kattavaa tutkimustietoa astioiden soveltuvuudesta.

Joustavan särmäyssolun kehittäminen

Tässä diplomityössä esitellään robotisoinnin teoria ja robottisolun oheislaitteet, vaihtoehdot, toiminta ja turvallisuus. Joustavalla tuotantosolulla tarkoitetaan automaattista valmistusjärjestelmää, jossa on useita toisiinsa liitettyjä koneita yhteisellä ohjausjärjestelmällä. Solun komponentteja ovat tuotantolaitteet ja -koneet, ohjausjärjestelmät, valvontalaitteet ja anturit, toimi- ja säätölaitteet sekä ohjelmointijärjestelmä. Joustavaa tuotantosolua voidaan kehittää tehostamalla työntekijöiden koulutusta, ohjelmointia, asetusten tekemistä ja layouttia. Diplomityöhön liittyvä kehitystehtävä koskee heinäveteläisen alihankintakonepajan, Metalliset Oy:n, tuotannon tehostamista robotisoinnin avulla. Metalliset Oy:n joustavan särmäyssolun kehittämiskeinoiksi valittiin nykyisen järjestelmän tehostaminen, uuden tuotantosolun luominen olemassa olevia laitteita hyödyntäen ja tulevaisuuden tuotantosolun kehittäminen. Vertailussa parhaimmaksi osoittautui uuden tuotantosolun luominen olemassa olevia laitteita hyödyntäen.

Energiavarastojen mitoitus laivasähköjärjestelmään

Jatkuvasti kiristyvät päästörajoitukset ajavat eri alojen energiatuottajia kehittämään uusia ratkaisuja päästöjen pienentämiseksi. Viime aikoina myös laivojen päästörajoituksia on tiukennettu ja tulevaisuudessa niitä tullaan tiukentamaan lisää. Nämä tiukentuvat päästörajoitukset asettavat myös laivan dieselmoottoreiden valmistajat uusien haasteiden eteen. Yhtenä vaihtoehtona on lisätä dieselmoottorin rinnalle energiavarasto, joka vähentää dieselmoottorin päästöjä varsinkin nopeissa kuormituksen muutoksissa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan sähköisten energiavarastojen mitoitusta laivan sähköjärjestelmään. Energiavarastot mitoitetaan useaan eri toimintatilanteeseen. Mitoituksen lisäksi pohditaan energiavarastoilla saatavaa mahdollista rahallista hyötyä sekä päästöjen vähenemistä.

Novel Methods for Error Modeling and Parameter Identification of a Redundant Serial-Parallel Hybrid Robot

To obtain the desirable accuracy of a robot, there are two techniques available. The first option would be to make the robot match the nominal mathematic model. In other words, the manufacturing and assembling tolerances of every part would be extremely tight so that all of the various parameters would match the “design” or “nominal” values as closely as possible. This method can satisfy most of the accuracy requirements， but the cost would increase dramatically as the accuracy requirement increases. Alternatively, a more cost-effective solution is to build a manipulator with relaxed manufacturing and assembling tolerances. By modifying the mathematical model in the controller, the actual errors of the robot can be compensated. This is the essence of robot calibration. Simply put, robot calibration is the process of defining an appropriate error model and then identifying the various parameter errors that make the error model match the robot as closely as possible. This work focuses on kinematic calibration of a 10 degree-of-freedom (DOF) redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. The robot consists of a 4-DOF serial mechanism and a 6-DOF hexapod parallel manipulator. The redundant 4-DOF serial structure is used to enlarge workspace and the 6-DOF hexapod manipulator is used to provide high load capabilities and stiffness for the whole structure. The main objective of the study is to develop a suitable calibration method to improve the accuracy of the redundant serial-parallel hybrid robot. To this end, a Denavit–Hartenberg (DH) hybrid error model and a Product-of-Exponential (POE) error model are developed for error modeling of the proposed robot. Furthermore, two kinds of global optimization methods, i.e. the differential-evolution (DE) algorithm and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, are employed to identify the parameter errors of the derived error model. A measurement method based on a 3-2-1 wire-based pose estimation system is proposed and implemented in a Solidworks environment to simulate the real experimental validations. Numerical simulations and Solidworks prototype-model validations are carried out on the hybrid robot to verify the effectiveness, accuracy and robustness of the calibration algorithms.

Fuzzy real option analysis in patent related decision making and patent valuation

The shift towards a knowledge-based economy has inevitably prompted the evolution of patent exploitation. Nowadays, patent is more than just a prevention tool for a company to block its competitors from developing rival technologies, but lies at the very heart of its strategy for value creation and is therefore strategically exploited for economic pro t and competitive advantage. Along with the evolution of patent exploitation, the demand for reliable and systematic patent valuation has also reached an unprecedented level. However, most of the quantitative approaches in use to assess patent could arguably fall into four categories and they are based solely on the conventional discounted cash flow analysis, whose usability and reliability in the context of patent valuation are greatly limited by five practical issues: the market illiquidity, the poor data availability, discriminatory cash-flow estimations, and its incapability to account for changing risk and managerial flexibility. This dissertation attempts to overcome these impeding barriers by rationalizing the use of two techniques, namely fuzzy set theory (aiming at the first three issues) and real option analysis (aiming at the last two). It commences with an investigation into the nature of the uncertainties inherent in patent cash flow estimation and claims that two levels of uncertainties must be properly accounted for. Further investigation reveals that both levels of uncertainties fall under the categorization of subjective uncertainty, which differs from objective uncertainty originating from inherent randomness in that uncertainties labelled as subjective are highly related to the behavioural aspects of decision making and are usually witnessed whenever human judgement, evaluation or reasoning is crucial to the system under consideration and there exists a lack of complete knowledge on its variables. Having clarified their nature, the application of fuzzy set theory in modelling patent-related uncertain quantities is effortlessly justified. The application of real option analysis to patent valuation is prompted by the fact that both patent application process and the subsequent patent exploitation (or commercialization) are subject to a wide range of decisions at multiple successive stages. In other words, both patent applicants and patentees are faced with a large variety of courses of action as to how their patent applications and granted patents can be managed. Since they have the right to run their projects actively, this flexibility has value and thus must be properly accounted for. Accordingly, an explicit identification of the types of managerial flexibility inherent in patent-related decision making problems and in patent valuation, and a discussion on how they could be interpreted in terms of real options are provided in this dissertation. Additionally, the use of the proposed techniques in practical applications is demonstrated by three fuzzy real option analysis based models. In particular, the pay-of method and the extended fuzzy Black-Scholes model are employed to investigate the profitability of a patent application project for a new process for the preparation of a gypsum-fibre composite and to justify the subsequent patent commercialization decision, respectively; a fuzzy binomial model is designed to reveal the economic potential of a patent licensing opportunity.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.