Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Estimation of existing cable systems in generator-busbar unit and choice the optimal solution for its modernization

The aim of this master’s thesis is to develop an algorithm to calculate the cable network for heat and power station CHGRES. This algorithm includes important aspect which has an influence on the cable network reliability. Moreover, according to developed algorithm, the optimal solution for modernization cable system from economical and technical point of view was obtained. The conditions of existing cable lines show that replacement is necessary. Otherwise, the fault situation would happen. In this case company would loss not only money but also its prestige. As a solution, XLPE single core cables are more profitable than other types of cable considered in this work. Moreover, it is presented the dependence of value of short circuit current on number of 10/110 kV transformers connected in parallel between main grid and considered 10 kV busbar and how it affects on final decision. Furthermore, the losses of company in power (capacity) market due to fault situation are presented. These losses are commensurable with investment to replace existing cable system.

Design and testing of an armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator for island operation

At present, permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) are of great interest. Since they do not have electrical excitation losses, the highly efficient, lightweight and compact PMSGs equipped with damper windings work perfectly when connected to a network. However, in island operation, the generator (or parallel generators) alone is responsible for the building up of the network and maintaining its voltage and reactive power level. Thus, in island operation, a PMSG faces very tight constraints, which are difficult to meet, because the flux produced by the permanent magnets (PMs) is constant and the voltage of the generator cannot be controlled. Traditional electrically excited synchronous generators (EESGs) can easily meet these constraints, because the field winding current is controllable. The main drawback of the conventional EESG is the relatively high excitation loss. This doctoral thesis presents a study of an alternative solution termed as a hybrid excitation synchronous generator (HESG). HESGs are a special class of electrical machines, where the total rotor current linkage is produced by the simultaneous action of two different excitation sources: the electrical and permanent magnet (PM) excitation. An overview of the existing HESGs is given. Several HESGs are introduced and compared with the conventional EESG from technical and economic points of view. In the study, the armature-reaction-compensated permanent magnet synchronous generator with alternated current linkages (ARC-PMSG with ACL) showed a better performance than the other options. Therefore, this machine type is studied in more detail. An electromagnetic design and a thermal analysis are presented. To verify the operation principle and the electromagnetic design, a down-sized prototype of 69 kVA apparent power was built. The experimental results are demonstrated and compared with the predicted ones. A prerequisite for an ARC-PMSG with ACL is an even number of pole pairs (p = 2, 4, 6, …) in the machine. Naturally, the HESG technology is not limited to even-pole-pair machines. However, the analysis of machines with p = 3, 5, 7, … becomes more complicated, especially if analytical tools are used, and is outside the scope of this thesis. The contribution of this study is to propose a solution where an ARC-PMSG replaces an EESG in electrical power generation while meeting all the requirements set for generators given for instance by ship classification societies, particularly as regards island operation. The maximum power level when applying the technology studied here is mainly limited by the economy of the machine. The larger the machine is, the smaller is the efficiency benefit. However, it seems that machines up to ten megawatts of power could benefit from the technology. However, in low-power applications, for instance in the 500 kW range, the efficiency increase can be significant.

Lightweight, liquid-cooled, direct-drive generator for highpower wind turbines: motivation, concept, and performance

Thesis: A liquid-cooled, direct-drive, permanent-magnet, synchronous generator with helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit offers an excellent combination of attributes to reliably provide economic wind power for the coming generation of wind turbines with power ratings between 5 and 20MW. A generator based on the liquid-cooled architecture proposed here will be reliable and cost effective. Its smaller size and mass will reduce build, transport, and installation costs. Summary: Converting wind energy into electricity and transmitting it to an electrical power grid to supply consumers is a relatively new and rapidly developing method of electricity generation. In the most recent decade, the increase in wind energy’s share of overall energy production has been remarkable. Thousands of land-based and offshore wind turbines have been commissioned around the globe, and thousands more are being planned. The technologies have evolved rapidly and are continuing to evolve, and wind turbine sizes and power ratings are continually increasing. Many of the newer wind turbine designs feature drivetrains based on Direct-Drive, Permanent-Magnet, Synchronous Generators (DD-PMSGs). Being low-speed high-torque machines, the diameters of air-cooled DD-PMSGs become very large to generate higher levels of power. The largest direct-drive wind turbine generator in operation today, rated just below 8MW, is 12m in diameter and approximately 220 tonne. To generate higher powers, traditional DD-PMSGs would need to become extraordinarily large. A 15MW air-cooled direct-drive generator would be of colossal size and tremendous mass and no longer economically viable. One alternative to increasing diameter is instead to increase torque density. In a permanent magnet machine, this is best done by increasing the linear current density of the stator windings. However, greater linear current density results in more Joule heating, and the additional heat cannot be removed practically using a traditional air-cooling approach. Direct liquid cooling is more effective, and when applied directly to the stator windings, higher linear current densities can be sustained leading to substantial increases in torque density. The higher torque density, in turn, makes possible significant reductions in DD-PMSG size. Over the past five years, a multidisciplinary team of researchers has applied a holistic approach to explore the application of liquid cooling to permanent-magnet wind turbine generator design. The approach has considered wind energy markets and the economics of wind power, system reliability, electromagnetic behaviors and design, thermal design and performance, mechanical architecture and behaviors, and the performance modeling of installed wind turbines. This dissertation is based on seven publications that chronicle the work. The primary outcomes are the proposal of a novel generator architecture, a multidisciplinary set of analyses to predict the behaviors, and experimentation to demonstrate some of the key principles and validate the analyses. The proposed generator concept is a direct-drive, surface-magnet, synchronous generator with fractional-slot, duplex-helical, double-layer, non-overlapping windings formed from a copper conductor with a coaxial internal coolant conduit to accommodate liquid coolant flow. The novel liquid-cooling architecture is referred to as LC DD-PMSG. The first of the seven publications summarized in this dissertation discusses the technological and economic benefits and limitations of DD-PMSGs as applied to wind energy. The second publication addresses the long-term reliability of the proposed LC DD-PMSG design. Publication 3 examines the machine’s electromagnetic design, and Publication 4 introduces an optimization tool developed to quickly define basic machine parameters. The static and harmonic behaviors of the stator and rotor wheel structures are the subject of Publication 5. And finally, Publications 6 and 7 examine steady-state and transient thermal behaviors. There have been a number of ancillary concrete outcomes associated with the work including the following. X Intellectual Property (IP) for direct liquid cooling of stator windings via an embedded coaxial coolant conduit, IP for a lightweight wheel structure for lowspeed, high-torque electrical machinery, and IP for numerous other details of the LC DD-PMSG design X Analytical demonstrations of the equivalent reliability of the LC DD-PMSG; validated electromagnetic, thermal, structural, and dynamic prediction models; and an analytical demonstration of the superior partial load efficiency and annual energy output of an LC DD-PMSG design X A set of LC DD-PMSG design guidelines and an analytical tool to establish optimal geometries quickly and early on X Proposed 8 MW LC DD-PMSG concepts for both inner and outer rotor configurations Furthermore, three technologies introduced could be relevant across a broader spectrum of applications. 1) The cost optimization methodology developed as part of this work could be further improved to produce a simple tool to establish base geometries for various electromagnetic machine types. 2) The layered sheet-steel element construction technology used for the LC DD-PMSG stator and rotor wheel structures has potential for a wide range of applications. And finally, 3) the direct liquid-cooling technology could be beneficial in higher speed electromotive applications such as vehicular electric drives.

Markov Random Fields in Cancer Mutation Dependencies

Even though a large amount of evidence would suggest that PP2A serine/threonine protein phosphatase acts as a tumour suppressor the genomics data to support this claim is limited. We fit a sparse binary Markov random field with individual sample's total mutational frequency as an additional covariate to model the dependencies between the mutations occurring in the PP2A encoding genes. We utilize the data from recent large scale cancer genomics studies, where the whole genome from a human tumour biopsy has been analysed. Our results show a complex network of interactions between the occurrence of mutations in our twenty examined genes. According to our analysis the mutations occurring in the genes PPP2R1A, PPP2R3A, and PPP2R2B are identified as the key mutations. These genes form the core of the network of conditional dependency between the mutations in the investigated twenty genes. Additionally, we note that the mutations occurring in PPP2R4 seem to be more influential in samples with higher number of total mutations. The mutations occurring in the set of genes suggested by our results has been shown to contribute to the transformation of human cells. We conclude that our evidence further supports the claim that PP2A acts as a tumour suppressor and restoring PP2A activity is an appealing therapeutic strategy.

Fabrication and Pseudo-Analog Characteristics of Ta2O5 -Based ReRAM Cell

Memristori on yksi elektroniikan peruskomponenteista vastuksen, kondensaattorin ja kelan lisäksi. Se on passiivinen komponentti, jonka teorian kehitti Leon Chua vuonna 1971. Kesti kuitenkin yli kolmekymmentä vuotta ennen kuin teoria pystyttiin yhdistämään kokeellisiin tuloksiin. Vuonna 2008 Hewlett Packard julkaisi artikkelin, jossa he väittivät valmistaneensa ensimmäisen toimivan memristorin. Memristori eli muistivastus on resistiivinen komponentti, jonka vastusarvoa pystytään muuttamaan. Nimens mukaisesti memristori kykenee myös säilyttämään vastusarvonsa ilman jatkuvaa virtaa ja jännitettä. Tyypillisesti memristorilla on vähintään kaksi vastusarvoa, joista kumpikin pystytään valitsemaan syöttämällä komponentille jännitettä tai virtaa. Tämän vuoksi memristoreita kutsutaankin usein resistiivisiksi kytkimiksi. Resistiivisiä kytkimiä tutkitaan nykyään paljon erityisesti niiden mahdollistaman muistiteknologian takia. Resistiivisistä kytkimistä rakennettua muistia kutsutaan ReRAM-muistiksi (lyhenne sanoista resistive random access memory). ReRAM-muisti on Flash-muistin tapaan haihtumaton muisti, jota voidaan sähköisesti ohjelmoida tai tyhjentää. Flash-muistia käytetään tällä hetkellä esimerkiksi muistitikuissa. ReRAM-muisti mahdollistaa kuitenkin nopeamman ja vähävirtaiseman toiminnan Flashiin verrattuna, joten se on tulevaisuudessa varteenotettava kilpailija markkinoilla. ReRAM-muisti mahdollistaa myös useammin bitin tallentamisen yhteen muistisoluun binäärisen (”0” tai ”1”) toiminnan sijaan. Tyypillisesti ReRAM-muistisolulla on kaksi rajoittavaa vastusarvoa, mutta näiden kahden tilan välille pystytään mahdollisesti ohjelmoimaan useampia tiloja. Muistisoluja voidaan kutsua analogisiksi, jos tilojen määrää ei ole rajoitettu. Analogisilla muistisoluilla olisi mahdollista rakentaa tehokkaasti esimerkiksi neuroverkkoja. Neuroverkoilla pyritään mallintamaan aivojen toimintaa ja suorittamaan tehtäviä, jotka ovat tyypillisesti vaikeita perinteisille tietokoneohjelmille. Neuroverkkoja käytetään esimerkiksi puheentunnistuksessa tai tekoälytoteutuksissa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan Ta2O5 -perustuvan ReRAM-muistisolun analogista toimintaa pitäen mielessä soveltuvuus neuroverkkoihin. ReRAM-muistisolun valmistus ja mittaustulokset käydään läpi. Muistisolun toiminta on harvoin täysin analogista, koska kahden rajoittavan vastusarvon välillä on usein rajattu määrä tiloja. Tämän vuoksi toimintaa kutsutaan pseudoanalogiseksi. Mittaustulokset osoittavat, että yksittäinen ReRAM-muistisolu kykenee binääriseen toimintaan hyvin. Joiltain osin yksittäinen solu kykenee tallentamaan useampia tiloja, mutta vastusarvoissa on peräkkäisten ohjelmointisyklien välillä suurta vaihtelevuutta, joka hankaloittaa tulkintaa. Valmistettu ReRAM-muistisolu ei sellaisenaan kykene toimimaan pseudoanalogisena muistina, vaan se vaati rinnalleen virtaa rajoittavan komponentin. Myös valmistusprosessin kehittäminen vähentäisi yksittäisen solun toiminnassa esiintyvää varianssia, jolloin sen toiminta muistuttaisi enemmän pseudoanalogista muistia.