The Effect of Dividend Yield to Stocks’ Performance on Bullish and Bearish Finnish Stock Market

This study examines the relationship between dividend yield and stock return over bullish and bearish Finnish stock market by testing for alpha and beta shifts across bull and bear markets. In addition, this study examines if various factors, such as a standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability have an effect on the size, of the firms’ dividends and systematic risk of the stocks. We divide stocks into five portfolios on the basis of their past average dividend yields and investigate if the highest yielding portfolios outperform the lowest yielding portfolios during the different market conditions. As a result, high yielding stocks were most stable during the examination period and offered downside protection on bear markets. However, a strategy of forming portfolios with past dividend yields led to negative alphas even in bull markets. Standard deviation of dividends, firm size and profitability were found to have no effect on the size of dividends and systematic risk of the stocks.

Portfolion allokointi Euroopan markkinoilla: toimiala- vai maakohtainen strategia?

Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena on selvittää, kumpi on suomalaisen sijoittajan näkökulmasta tehokkaampi tapa allokoida portfolio Euroopan alueelle, maa- vai toimialalähestymistapa. Tätä tutkitaan käyttämällä aineistoa vuosilta 1999-2003. Tilanne ennen vuotta 1999 on aikaisempien tutkimusten perusteella melko hyvin selvillä, joten tutkimus antaa tuoretta tietoa siitä, miten poikkeuksellinen tuottohistoria vaikuttaa portfolion allokointiin. Aihetta tutkitaan käyttämällä 16 Euroopan alueen maaindeksiä ja kymmentä toimialaindeksiä. Indeksit ovat logaritmisia nettotuottoindeksejä, ja niistä on laskettu korrelaatiot, keskihajonnat sekä tehokkaat rintamat. Indekseistä on myös muodostettu 11 esimerkkiportfoliota, joiden avulla on analysoitu erilaisten portfolioiden suorituskykyä. Tuloksien mukaan maakohtaisella sijoitusstrategialla on etenkin laskevilla markkinoilla mahdollisuus saavuttaa parempi riski/tuotto-suhde, vaikka sijoitettaisiin pelkästään toimialoihin, joita yleisen käsityksen mukaan kannattaa suosia laskevilla markkinoilla. Toimialasijoittaminen taas tarjoaa hieman parempia mahdollisuuksia portfolion hajautukseen. Hajautuksen hyödyt suomalaiselle sijoittajalle tulivat tutkimuksessa selvästi esiin. Toimialasijoittamisesta on suomalaiselle sijoittajalle erityistä hyötyä hajautuksen kannalta, koska näin voidaan valita toimialoja, joiden paino Suomen markkinaindeksissä on vähäinen.

Arvo- ja momentum-strategioiden yhdistäminen Suomen osakemarkkinoilla

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää pystytäänkö momentum-strategiaa hyödyntämällä parantamaan arvostrategian tuottoja Suomen osakemarkkinoilla. Yhdistetyn arvo- ja momentum-strategian lisäksi tutkitaan myös arvosrategian menestystä. Tutkimuksessa arvostusmittareina on käytetty P/E-, P/B-, P/CF-, P/S-, P/D-, EV/EBITDA-lukuja sekä kolmea näistä muodostettua yhdistelmätunnuslukua. Tutkimusaineisto koostuu Suomen osakemarkkinoilla julkisesti noteerattujen osakkeiden tuottoaikasarjoista vuosilta 1992-2008. Osakkeet on järjestetty tunnuslukujen ja momentum-indikaattorien perusteella kolmeen tertiiliportfolioon. Sijoitusten pitoaikana on käytetty yhtä ja kolmea vuotta. Portfolioista on raportoitu keskimääräisen vuosituoton lisäksi riskikorjattu tuotto Sharpen luvulla ja Jensenin alfalla mitattuna sekä näiden tilastollinen merkitsevyys. Tulosten perusteella voidaan päätellä, ettei momentum-strategian avulla pystytä parantamaan arvostrategian tuottoja Suomen osakemarkkinoilla. Arvostrategia menestyi kuitenkin erittäin hyvin etenkin yhdistelmätunnuslukujen sekä P/D-, EV/EBITDA- ja P/E-lukujen osalta.

Monte Carlo Hypothesis Testing with The Sharpe Ratio

The purpose of this master thesis was to perform simulations that involve use of random number while testing hypotheses especially on two samples populations being compared weather by their means, variances or Sharpe ratios. Specifically, we simulated some well known distributions by Matlab and check out the accuracy of an hypothesis testing. Furthermore, we went deeper and check what could happen once the bootstrapping method as described by Effrons is applied on the simulated data. In addition to that, one well known RobustSharpe hypothesis testing stated in the paper of Ledoit and Wolf was applied to measure the statistical significance performance between two investment founds basing on testing weather there is a statistically significant difference between their Sharpe Ratios or not. We collected many literatures about our topic and perform by Matlab many simulated random numbers as possible to put out our purpose; As results we come out with a good understanding that testing are not always accurate; for instance while testing weather two normal distributed random vectors come from the same normal distribution. The Jacque-Berra test for normality showed that for the normal random vector r1 and r2, only 94,7% and 95,7% respectively are coming from normal distribution in contrast 5,3% and 4,3% failed to shown the truth already known; but when we introduce the bootstrapping methods by Effrons while estimating pvalues where the hypothesis decision is based, the accuracy of the test was 100% successful. From the above results the reports showed that bootstrapping methods while testing or estimating some statistics should always considered because at most cases the outcome are accurate and errors are minimized in the computation. Also the RobustSharpe test which is known to use one of the bootstrapping methods, studentised one, were applied first on different simulated data including distribution of many kind and different shape secondly, on real data, Hedge and Mutual funds. The test performed quite well to agree with the existence of statistical significance difference between their Sharpe ratios as described in the paper of Ledoit andWolf.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend

Purpose of the study is to evaluate performance of active portfolio management and the effect of stock market trend on the performance. Theory of efficient markets states that market prices reflect all available information and that all investors share a common view of future price developments. This view gives little room for the success of active management, but the theory has been disputed – at least the level of efficiency. Behavioral finance has developed theories that identify irrational behavior patterns of investors. For example, investment decisions are not made independent of past market developments. These findings give reason to believe that also the performance of active portfolio management may depend on market developments. Performance of 16 Finnish equity funds is evaluated during the period of 2005 to 2011. In addition two sub periods are constructed, a bull market period and a bear market period. The sub periods are created by joining together the two bull market phases and the two bear market phases of the whole period. This allows for the comparison of the two different market states. Performance of the funds is measured with risk-adjusted performance by Modigliani and Modigliani (1997), abnormal return over the CAPM by Jensen (1968), and market timing by Henriksson and Merton (1981). The results suggested that in average the funds are not able to outperform the market portfolio. However, the underperformance was found to be lower than the management fees in average which suggests that portfolio managers are able to do successful investment decisions to some extent. The study revealed substantial dependence on the market trend for all of the measures. The risk-adjusted performance measure suggested that in bear markets active portfolio managers in average are able to beat the market portfolio but not in bull markets. Jensen´s alpha and the market timing model also showed striking differences between the two market states. The results of these two measures were, however, somewhat problematic and reliable conclusions about the performance could not be drawn.

A performance analysis of conventional and fundamental exchange traded funds: ETFs and their risk-return characteristics in relation to building institutional investor’s passive portfolio

An exchange traded fund (ETF) is a financial instrument that tracks some predetermined index. Since their initial establishment in 1993, ETFs have grown in importance in the field of passive investing. The main reason for the growth of the ETF industry is that ETFs combine benefits of stock investing and mutual fund investing. Although ETFs resemble mutual funds in many ways, also many differences occur. In addition, ETFs not only differ from mutual funds but also differ among each other. ETFs can be divided into two categories, i.e. market capitalisation ETFs and fundamental (or strategic) ETFs, and further into subcategories depending on their fundament basis. ETFs are a useful tool for diversification especially for a long-term investor. Although the economic importance of ETFs has risen drastically during the past 25 years, the differences and risk-return characteristics of fundamental ETFs have yet been rather unstudied area. In effect, no previous research on market capitalisation and fundamental ETFs was found during the research process. For its part, this thesis seeks to fill this research gap. The studied data consist of 50 market capitalisation ETFs and 50 fundamental ETFs. The fundaments, on which the indices that the fundamental ETFs track, were not limited nor segregated into subsections. The two types of ETFs were studied at an aggregate level as two different research groups. The dataset ranges from June 2006 to December 2014 with 103 monthly observations. The data was gathered using Bloomberg Terminal. The analysis was conducted as an econometric performance analysis. In addition to other econometric measures, the methods that were used in the performance analysis included modified Value-at-Risk, modified Sharpe ratio and Treynor ratio. The results supported the hypothesis that passive market capitalisation ETFs outperform active fundamental ETFs in terms of risk-adjusted returns, though the difference is rather small. Nevertheless, when taking into account the higher overall trading costs of the fundamental ETFs, the underperformance gap widens. According to the research results, market capitalisation ETFs are a recommendable diversification instrument for a long-term investor. In addition to better risk-adjusted returns, passive ETFs are more transparent and the bases of their underlying indices are simpler than those of fundamental ETFs. ETFs are still a young financial innovation and hence data is scarcely available. On future research, it would be valuable to research the differences in risk-adjusted returns also between the subsections of fundamental ETFs.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.

The role of alliance capabilities in alliance portfolio management

The question of why some firms perform better in managing their alliances has raised interest among scholars and managers. Whereas inter-firm factors influencing the alliance performance such as strategic fit between partners and the existence of complementarities have been studied extensively, research on firm-level antecedents is rather scarce. Therefore this study investigates the role of firm’s alliance capability in the alliance success equation. Particularly it analyses the specialized mechanisms and processes set up by firm in order to facilitate alliancerelated know-how leverage organization-wise. Evidence from a cross-industry sample of R&D intensive Finnish companies supports the fact that firms which have invested in institutionalizing alliance capabilities outperform their counterparts in alliance portfolio management. Results also suggest that firms need to adjust alliance management tools depending on the alliance portfolio size, prior experience with inter-firm partnerships and the strategic importance of alliances. Furthermore, absorptive capacity is found to be crucial for successful alliance management, its role being complementary to that of alliance capability. Finally, firms that have successful alliances also enjoy higher financial, market and innovation performance.

Chasing performance persistence of hedge funds

The thesis examines the performance persistence of hedge funds using complement methodologies (namely cross-sectional regressions, quantile portfolio analysis and Spearman rank correlation test). In addition, six performance ranking metrics and six different combinations of selection and holding periods are compared. The data is gathered from HFI and Tremont databases covering over 14,000 hedge funds and time horizon is set from January 1996 to December 2007. The results suggest that there definitely exists performance persistence among hedge funds and the strength and existence of persistence vary among fund styles. The persistence depends on the metrics and combination of selection and prediction period applied. According to the results, the combination of 36-month selection and holding period outperforms other five period combinations in capturing performance persistence within the sample. Furthermore, model-free performance metrics capture persistence more sensitively than model-specific metrics. The study is the first one ever to use MVR as a performance ranking metric, and surprisingly MVR is more sensitive to detect persistence than other performance metrics employed.

Mutual Fund Performance and the Market Timing Ability - Finnish Evidence

The purpose of this thesis is to examine the performance of Finnish equity funds and their market timing ability. Fund performance is evaluated by using annual returns and various risk-adjusted measures, including Sharpe ratio, DDSR, SKASR, Treynor ratio and Jensen’s alpha, whereas portfolio manager’s timing ability is examined with Treynor-Mazuy model and Henriksson-Merton model. The data is collected from the Finnish fund market during the sample period from January 1997 to February 2010. Results show that Finnish equity funds have been able to outperform the market return on a risk-adjusted basis, but these results are influenced heavily by the exceptionally good performance during the IT-bubble. Market timing models show that fund managers have been, to some degree, able to time the market but not a single fund have been able to possess security selection ability and market timing ability simultaneously.