Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.

Rasitusten älykäs seuranta

Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään monikappalesysteeminä mallinnetun toimilaitteen tai mekaanisen systeemin kappaleissa vaikuttavien rasitusten, siirtymien ja jännitysten laskentamenetelmiä. Työhön sisällytettyjen menetelmien valinta on toteutettu 2000-luvulla virtuaalisuunnittelua käsittelevissä tiedelehdissä julkaistujen artikkelien pohjalta. Työn tarkoituksena on muodostaa kirjallisuuskatsaus uusien laskentamenetelmien ominaisuuksista ja metodiikasta, mitä voidaan tarvittaessa soveltaa virtuaalisuunnittelun tarpeisiin. Kaksi esiteltävistä menetelmistä on optimointimenetelmiä (RBDO ja ESL). Muissa menetelmissä käsitellään muun muassa venymien rekonstruointia ja hankauskitkasta komponentteihin kohdistuvia jännityksiä. Moving frame-menetelmässä sovelletaan kelluvan koordinaatiston periaatetta, yksi menetelmistä perustuu selkeästi osarakennetekniikkaan ja yhdessä kappaleiden joustokäyttäytymistä mallinnetaan muotofunktioiden avulla. Lisäksi on kolme soveltavaa esimerkkiä rasitusten seurannasta teollisuuskoneissa. Laskentamenetelmät ovat luonteeltaan ja sovelluskelpoisuudeltaan erilaisia. Optimointimenetelmät ovat parhaimmillaan rakenteiden jatkokehitystyössä, siinä missä muut menetelmät soveltuvat joko olemassa olevien rakenteiden mallintamiseen tai kokonaan uusien systeemien suunnittelutyökaluiksi. Tätä eroavuutta voidaan pitää hyvänä asiana, jotta voidaan valita parhaiten omiin tarkoituksiin soveltuva menetelmä.

Analysis of Crankshaft Using Multibody Dynamics

Työn tavoitteena oli löytää tarkka menetelmä kampiakselin vaurioitumisriskin laskentaan vertailemalla eri laskentamenetelmiä. Lopuksi suoritettiin simulointi monikappalejärjestelmälle käyttäen elastisia malleja todellisista rakenteista. Simulointiohjelmana käytettiin AVL:n kehittämää Excite:ia.

Real-Time Simulation of Mobile and Industrial Machines Using the Multibody Simulation Approach

This thesis introduces a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody simulation approach. The environment consists of components that are used in conventional product development, including computer aided drawing, visualization, dynamic simulation and finite element software architecture, data transfer and haptics. These components are combined to perform as a coupled system on one platform. The environment is used to simulate mobile and industrial machines at different stages of a product life time. Consequently, the demands of the simulated scenarios vary. In this thesis, a real-time simulation environment based on the multibody approach is used to study a reel mechanism of a paper machine and a gantry crane. These case systems are used to demonstrate the usability of the real-time simulation environment for fault detection purposes and in the context of a training simulator. In order to describe the dynamical performance of a mobile or industrial machine, the nonlinear equations of motion must be defined. In this thesis, the dynamical behaviour of machines is modelled using the multibody simulation approach. A multibody system may consist of rigid and flexible bodies which are joined using kinematic joint constraints while force components are used to describe the actuators. The strength of multibody dynamics relies upon its ability to describe nonlinearities arising from wearing of the components, friction, large rotations or contact forces in a systematic manner. For this reason, the interfaces between subsystems such as mechanics, hydraulics and control systems of the mechatronic machine can be defined and analyzed in a straightforward manner.

A multibody dynamic model of the cross-country ski-skating technique

The objective of this thesis is the development of a multibody dynamic model matching the observed movements of the lower limb of a skier performing the skating technique in cross-country style. During the construction of this model, the formulation of the equation of motion was made using the Euler - Lagrange approach with multipliers applied to a multibody system in three dimensions. The description of the lower limb of the skate skier and the ski was completed by employing three bodies, one representing the ski, and two representing the natural movements of the leg of the skier. The resultant system has 13 joint constraints due to the interconnection of the bodies, and four prescribed kinematic constraints to account for the movements of the leg, leaving the amount of degrees of freedom equal to one. The push-off force exerted by the skate skier was taken directly from measurements made on-site in the ski tunnel at the Vuokatti facilities (Finland) and was input into the model as a continuous function. Then, the resultant velocities and movement of the ski, center of mass of the skier, and variation of the skating angle were studied to understand the response of the model to the variation of important parameters of the skate technique. This allowed a comparison of the model results with the real movement of the skier. Further developments can be made to this model to better approximate the results to the real movement of the leg. One can achieve this by changing the constraints to include the behavior of the real leg joints and muscle actuation. As mentioned in the introduction of this thesis, a multibody dynamic model can be used to provide relevant information to ski designers and to obtain optimized results of the given variables, which athletes can use to improve their performance.

The Impact of National Innovation System on Entrepreneurial Venture Creation Process

The important role of entrepreneurship in countries’ economic development and overall society well-being is widely recognized by researchers, experts as well as policy makers. Every phase of the process of starting a new business is related to the interaction with at least one player of country innovation system and therefore the efficiency of this interaction may have an influence on the success of whole entrepreneurial process and consequently on the willingness of potential entrepreneurs to engage into this process. The study proposes a System Dynamics model for studying the impact of National Innovation System (NIS) on the entrepreneurial venture creation process. The developed model also takes country population aspect into account and provides results for estimation the effect various demographic tendencies on the process performance. The special impact is made on possible ways to facilitate the development of entrepreneurial framework conditions. Business incubators are seen as one of the effective tool for accomplishing such task. The study also provides the result for estimation of possible impact arising from properly functioned Business Incubators.

Maastotyökoneen ajomoottorin hybridisointiin soveltuvan napavaihteiston dynamiikan mallinnus.

Työn tavoitteena oli mallintaa maastotyökoneen ajomoottorin hybridisointiin soveltuvan napavaihteiston dynamiikka. Työ tehtiin osana Saimaan ammattikorkeakoulun tutkimusprojektia, jonka tarkoituksena oli ajomoottorin ja integroidun napavaihteiston kaupallistaminen maastotyökoneisiin. Maastotyökoneena simulointimallissa käytettiin tyypillistä maataloustraktoria, johon kytkettiin vielä peräkärry. Traktorin renkaiden napaan oli kytketty ajomoottorina toimiva sähkömoottori, jonka sisään simuloitu napavaihteisto oli integroitu. Napavaihteiston dynamiikan mallintamiseen käytettiin monikappaledynamiikan simulointiohjelmistoa (Adams). Ohjelmalle määritettiin napavaihteiston komponenttien parametrit, joista voitiin simuloida vaihteiston dynaaminen käyttäytyminen. Simuloidusta mallista saatiin kytkimiin kohdistuvat voimat kytkentätilanteessa sekä sähkömoottorin väännön suunnanvaihtotilanteessa eri akselin pituuksilla, eri kytkinten nopeuseroilla, eri traktorin painoilla ja eri kuormilla ajettaessa. Mallissa simuloitiin myös sähkömoottorin käyttäytyminen vaihteenvaihtotilanteessa eri pyörimisnopeuden säätimen kertoimilla. Työssä huomattiin, että akselin mitoituksella voitiin vaikuttaa vaihteistossa ilmeneviin voimiin kytkimen kytkentähetkellä. Myös kytkimen hammastuksessa olevalla hammasvälyksellä voitiin vaikuttaa kytkimiin kohdistuviin voimiin suunnanvaihtotilanteissa. Vaihteistoon kohdistuvista voimista voidaan jatkossa suunnitella kytkimen ja akselin profiili, jotta vaihteisto kestää siihen kohdistuvat voimat.

Structural dynamics in the global pulp and paper industry

The pulp and paper industry is currently facing broad structural changes due to global shifts in demand and supply. These changes have significant impacts on national economies worldwide. Planted forests (especially eucalyptus) and recovered paper have quickly increased their importance as raw material for paper and paperboard production. Although advances in information and communication technologies could reduce the demand for communication papers, and the growth of paper consumption has indeed flattened in developed economies, particularly in North America and Western Europe, the consumption is increasing on a global scale. Moreover, the focal point of production and consumption is moving from the Western world to the rapidly growing markets of Southeast Asia. This study analyzes how the so-called megatrends (globalization, technological development, and increasing environmental awareness) affect the pulp and paper industry’s external environment, and seeks reliable ways to incorporate the impact of the megatrends on the models concerning the demand, trade, and use of paper and pulp. The study expands current research in several directions and points of view, for example, by applying and incorporating several quantitative methods and different models. As a result, the thesis makes a significant contribution to better understand and measure the impacts of structural changes on the pulp and paper industry. It also provides some managerial and policy implications.

Designing Digital Filters for Servo Systems

The aim of this work was to select an appropriate digital filter for a servo application and to filter the noise from the measurement devices. Low pass filter attenuates the high frequency noise beyond the specified cut-off frequency. Digital lowpass filters in both IIR and FIR responses were designed and experimentally compared to understand their characteristics from the corresponding step responses of the system. Kaiser Windowing and Equiripple methods were selected for FIR response, whereas Butterworth, Chebyshev, InverseChebyshev and Elliptic methods were designed for IIR case. Limitations in digital filter design for a servo system were analysed. Especially the dynamic influences of each designed filter on the control stabilityof the electrical servo drive were observed. The criterion for the selection ofparameters in designing digital filters for servo systems was studied. Control system dynamics was given significant importance and the use of FIR and IIR responses in different situations were compared to justify the selection of suitableresponse in each case. The software used in the filter design was MatLab/Simulink® and dSPACE's DSP application. A speed controlled Permanent Magnet Linear synchronous Motor was used in the experimental work.

Estimating the Price and Demand Development of Some Paperboard Grades

Työn tavoitteena oli luoda malli, jonka avulla voitaisiin ennustaa kartonkituotteiden hinnan ja kysynnän kehitystä. Työssä kerättiin aluksi tietoa kartonkimarkkinoista haastattelujen ja tilastotietojen avulla. Näiden perusteella luotiin malli, joka kuvaa kartonkimarkkinoiden ja -teollisuuden rakennetta. Erityisesti kiinnitettiin huomiota asiakkaiden tilauskäyttäytymiseen, tuotannonohjaukseen sekä hinnan muodostumiseen. Työssä käytettiin ennustemenetelmänä systeemidynamiikkaa. Oleellista oli löytää systeemissä esiintyvät tärkeimmät takaisinkytkennät ja systeemin avainmuuttujat. Kun kaikille mallin muuttujille oli määritetty yhtälöt ja vakioille annettu arvot, voitiin mallia simuloida, ja saada ennusteet halutuille muuttujille. Työssä esitettiin ennusteet kartonkimarkkinoiden tärkeimmille parametreille kahden vuoden päähän. Työssä tarkasteltiin myös, miten muutokset mallin käyttäytymistä säätelevissä muuttujissa vaikuttavat tuloksiin. Jotta pystyttäisiin paremmin selvittämään koko kartonkiteollisuuden dynamiikka, lisätutkimusta tarvittaisiin vielä eri kartonkilajien substituutiomahdollisuuksista ja hintojen riippuvuuksista. Mielenkiintoista olisi myös tietää, miten tuotannon käyttöasteiden muutokset ja hinnan vaihtelut vaikuttavat liiketoiminnan kannattavuuteen valmistajien näkökulmasta.

Etelä-Karjalan aluebarometri

Tutkimuksen päätavoitteena oli rakentaa Etelä-Karjalan maakunnan alueellinen suhdannebarometri. Aluebarometrilla kuvataan ja analysoidaan alueen toimialojen tuotannon ja työllisyyden kehitystä sekä nykytilannetta tuoreilla, havainnollisilla ja luotettavilla indikaattoreilla. Tutkimusmenetelmänä on konstruktiivinen tutkimus. Aluebarometri toteutettiin kyselytutkimuksena 454:ltä yritykseltä Etelä-Karjalan alueella keväällä 2002. Tulokset on raportoitu toimialoittain sisältäen kyselytutkimuksen 11 indikaattoria sekä kaksi tilastollista muuttujaa. Teoriaosassa tarkasteltiin aluetalouden rakentumista, aluekehitystä, yritysten sijaintiteorioita ja systeemidynamiikkaa. Barometrin konstruoinnin lisäksi empiirisessä osassa analysoitiin maakunnan yritystoiminnan ja toimialarakenteen tyypillisiä piirteitä sekä selvitettiin barometrin käyttäjäkunnan tietotarpeita. Tutkimustulosten mukaan Etelä-Karjalan yritykset odottavat aluebarometrin indikaattoreiden kehittyvän seuraavan kuuden kuukauden ajanjaksolla lievästi myönteiseen suuntaan. Myönteisintä kehitystä odotetaan myynnin ja Venäjän yleisen suhdannetilanteen suhteen. Toimialoista positiivisimmat odotukset ovat informaatioteknologian, liike-elämän palveluiden, muiden palveluiden sekä kaupan aloilla, heikoimmat puolestaan rakentamisen alalla.

Studies on the Multifaceted Interaction of Atoms and an Electromagnetic Field

In this Thesis the interaction of an electromagnetic field and matter is studied from various aspects in the general framework of cold atoms. Our subjects cover a wide spectrum of phenomena ranging from semiclassical few-level models to fully quantum mechanical interaction with structured reservoirs leading to non-Markovian open quantum system dynamics. Within closed quantum systems, we propose a selective method to manipulate the motional state of atoms in a time-dependent double-well potential and interpret the method in terms of adiabatic processes. Also, we derive a simple wave-packet model, based on distributions of generalized eigenstates, explaining the finite visibility of interference in overlapping continuous-wave atom lasers. In the context of open quantum systems, we develop an unraveling of non-Markovian dynamics in terms of piecewise deterministic quantum jump processes confined in the Hilbert space of the reduced system - the non-Markovian quantum jump method. As examples, we apply it for simple 2- and 3-level systems interacting with a structured reservoir. Also, in the context of ion-cavity QED we study the entanglement generation based on collective Dicke modes in experimentally realistic conditions including photonic losses and an atomic spontaneous decay.