18 resultados para model selection in binary regression

em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland


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This Master´s thesis investigates the performance of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 APROS model in case of fast transients. The thesis includes a general description of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 nuclear power plants and of the most important safety systems. The theoretical background of the APROS code as well as the scope and the content of the Olkiluoto 1 and 2 APROS model are also described. The event sequences of the anticipated operation transients considered in the thesis are presented in detail as they will form the basis for the analysis of the APROS calculation results. The calculated fast operational transient situations comprise loss-of-load cases and two cases related to a inadvertent closure of one main steam isolation valve. As part of the thesis work, the inaccurate initial data values found in the original 1-D reactor core model were corrected. The input data needed for the creation of a more accurate 3-D core model were defined. The analysis of the APROS calculation results showed that while the main results were in good accordance with the measured plant data, also differences were detected. These differences were found to be caused by deficiencies and uncertainties related to the calculation model. According to the results the reactor core and the feedwater systems cause most of the differences between the calculated and measured values. Based on these findings, it will be possible to develop the APROS model further to make it a reliable and accurate tool for the analysis of the operational transients and possible plant modifications.

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The Travel and Tourism field is undergoing changes due to the rapid development of information technology and digital services. Online travel has profoundly changed the way travel and tourism organizations interact with their customers. Mobile technology such as mobile services for pocket devices (e.g. mobile phones) has the potential to take this development even further. Nevertheless, many issues have been highlighted since the early days of mobile services development (e.g. the lack of relevance, ease of use of many services). However, the wide adoption of smartphones and the mobile Internet in many countries as well as the formation of so-called ecosystems between vendors of mobile technology indicate that many of these issues have been overcome. Also when looking at the numbers of downloaded applications related to travel in application stores like Google Play, it seems obvious that mobile travel and tourism services are adopted and used by many individuals. However, as business is expected to start booming in the mobile era, many issues have a tendency to be overlooked. Travelers are generally on the go and thus services that work effectively in mobile settings (e.g. during a trip) are essential. Hence, the individuals’ perceived drivers and barriers to use mobile travel and tourism services in on-site or during trip settings seem particularly valuable to understand; thus this is one primary aim of the thesis. We are, however, also interested in understanding different types of mobile travel service users. Individuals may indeed be very different in their propensity to adopt and use technology based innovations (services). Research is also switching more from investigating issues of mobile service development to understanding individuals’ usage patterns of mobile services. But designing new mobile services may be a complex matter from a service provider perspective. Hence, our secondary aim is to provide insights into drivers and barriers of mobile travel and tourism service development from a holistic business model perspective. To accomplish the research objectives seven different studies have been conducted over a time period from 2002 – 2013. The studies are founded on and contribute to theories within diffusion of innovations, technology acceptance, value creation, user experience and business model development. Several different research methods are utilized: surveys, field and laboratory experiments and action research. The findings suggest that a successful mobile travel and tourism service is a service which supports one or several mobile motives (needs) of individuals such as spontaneous needs, time-critical arrangements, efficiency ambitions, mobility related needs (location features) and entertainment needs. The service could be customized to support travelers’ style of traveling (e.g. organized travel or independent travel) and should be easy to use, especially easy to take into use (access, install and learn) during a trip, without causing security concerns and/or financial risks for the user. In fact, the findings suggest that the most prominent barrier to the use of mobile travel and tourism services during a trip is an individual’s perceived financial cost (entry costs and usage costs). It should, however, be noted that regulations are put in place in the EU regarding data roaming prices between European countries and national telecom operators are starting to see ‘international data subscriptions’ as a sales advantage (e.g. Finnish Sonera provides a data subscription in the Baltic and Nordic region at the same price as in Finland), which will enhance the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services also in international contexts. In order to speed up the adoption rate travel service providers could consider e.g. more local initiatives of free Wi-Fi networks, development of services that can be used, at least to some extent, in an offline mode (do not require costly network access during a trip) and cooperation with telecom operators (e.g. lower usage costs for travelers who use specific mobile services or travel with specific vendors). Furthermore, based on a developed framework for user experience of mobile trip arrangements, the results show that a well-designed mobile site and/or native application, which preferably supports integration with other mobile services, is a must for true mobile presence. In fact, travel service providers who want to build a relationship with their customers need to consider a downloadable native application, but in order to be found through the mobile channel and make contact with potential new customers, a mobile website should be available. Moreover, we have made a first attempt with cluster analysis to identify user categories of mobile services in a travel and tourism context. The following four categories were identified: info-seekers, checkers, bookers and all-rounders. For example “all-rounders”, represented primarily by individuals who use their pocket device for almost any of the investigated mobile travel services, constituted primarily of 23 to 50 year old males with high travel frequency and great online experience. The results also indicate that travel service providers will increasingly become multi-channel providers. To manage multiple online channels, closely integrated and hybrid online platforms for different devices, supporting all steps in a traveler process should be considered. It could be useful for travel service providers to focus more on developing browser-based mobile services (HTML5-solutions) than native applications that work only with specific operating systems and for specific devices. Based on an action research study and utilizing a holistic business model framework called STOF we found that HTML5 as an emerging platform, at least for now, has some limitations regarding the development of the user experience and monetizing the application. In fact, a native application store (e.g. Google Play) may be a key mediator in the adoption of mobile travel and tourism services both from a traveler and a service provider perspective. Moreover, it must be remembered that many device and mobile operating system developers want service providers to specifically create services for their platforms and see native applications as a strategic advantage to sell more devices of a certain kind. The mobile telecom industry has moved into a battle of ecosystems where device makers, developers of operating systems and service developers are to some extent forced to choose their development platforms.

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The three alpha2-adrenoceptor (alpha2-AR) subtypes belong to the G protein-coupled receptor superfamily and represent potential drug targets. These receptors have many vital physiological functions, but their actions are complex and often oppose each other. Current research is therefore driven towards discovering drugs that selectively interact with a specific subtype. Cell model systems can be used to evaluate a chemical compound's activity in complex biological systems. The aim of this thesis was to optimize and validate cell-based model systems and assays to investigate alpha2-ARs as drug targets. The use of immortalized cell lines as model systems is firmly established but poses several problems, since the protein of interest is expressed in a foreign environment, and thus essential components of receptor regulation or signaling cascades might be missing. Careful cell model validation is thus required; this was exemplified by three different approaches. In cells heterologously expressing alpha2A-ARs, it was noted that the transfection technique affected the test outcome; false negative adenylyl cyclase test results were produced unless a cell population expressing receptors in a homogenous fashion was used. Recombinant alpha2C-ARs in non-neuronal cells were retained inside the cells, and not expressed in the cell membrane, complicating investigation of this receptor subtype. Receptor expression enhancing proteins (REEPs) were found to be neuronalspecific adapter proteins that regulate the processing of the alpha2C-AR, resulting in an increased level of total receptor expression. Current trends call for the use of primary cells endogenously expressing the receptor of interest; therefore, primary human vascular smooth muscle cells (SMC) expressing alpha2-ARs were tested in a functional assay monitoring contractility with a myosin light chain phosphorylation assay. However, these cells were not compatible with this assay due to the loss of differentiation. A rat aortic SMC cell line transfected to express the human alpha2B-AR was adapted for the assay, and it was found that the alpha2-AR agonist, dexmedetomidine, evoked myosin light chain phosphorylation in this model.

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The goal of Vehicle Routing Problems (VRP) and their variations is to transport a set of orders with the minimum number of vehicles at least cost. Most approaches are designed to solve specific problem variations independently, whereas in real world applications, different constraints are handled concurrently. This research extends solutions obtained for the traveling salesman problem with time windows to a much wider class of route planning problems in logistics. The work describes a novel approach that:  supports a heterogeneous fleet of vehicles  dynamically reduces the number of vehicles  respects individual capacity restrictions  satisfies pickup and delivery constraints  takes Hamiltonian paths (rather than cycles) The proposed approach uses Monte-Carlo Tree Search and in particular Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation. For the evaluation of the work, real data from the industry was obtained and tested and the results are reported.

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In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

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Machine learning provides tools for automated construction of predictive models in data intensive areas of engineering and science. The family of regularized kernel methods have in the recent years become one of the mainstream approaches to machine learning, due to a number of advantages the methods share. The approach provides theoretically well-founded solutions to the problems of under- and overfitting, allows learning from structured data, and has been empirically demonstrated to yield high predictive performance on a wide range of application domains. Historically, the problems of classification and regression have gained the majority of attention in the field. In this thesis we focus on another type of learning problem, that of learning to rank. In learning to rank, the aim is from a set of past observations to learn a ranking function that can order new objects according to how well they match some underlying criterion of goodness. As an important special case of the setting, we can recover the bipartite ranking problem, corresponding to maximizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in binary classification. Ranking applications appear in a large variety of settings, examples encountered in this thesis include document retrieval in web search, recommender systems, information extraction and automated parsing of natural language. We consider the pairwise approach to learning to rank, where ranking models are learned by minimizing the expected probability of ranking any two randomly drawn test examples incorrectly. The development of computationally efficient kernel methods, based on this approach, has in the past proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is not clear what techniques for estimating the predictive performance of learned models are the most reliable in the ranking setting, and how the techniques can be implemented efficiently. The contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we develop RankRLS, a computationally efficient kernel method for learning to rank, that is based on minimizing a regularized pairwise least-squares loss. In addition to training methods, we introduce a variety of algorithms for tasks such as model selection, multi-output learning, and cross-validation, based on computational shortcuts from matrix algebra. Second, we improve the fastest known training method for the linear version of the RankSVM algorithm, which is one of the most well established methods for learning to rank. Third, we study the combination of the empirical kernel map and reduced set approximation, which allows the large-scale training of kernel machines using linear solvers, and propose computationally efficient solutions to cross-validation when using the approach. Next, we explore the problem of reliable cross-validation when using AUC as a performance criterion, through an extensive simulation study. We demonstrate that the proposed leave-pair-out cross-validation approach leads to more reliable performance estimation than commonly used alternative approaches. Finally, we present a case study on applying machine learning to information extraction from biomedical literature, which combines several of the approaches considered in the thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides the background for the research work and summarizes the most central results, Part II consists of the five original research articles that are the main contribution of this thesis.

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In this thesis, the magnetic field control of convection instabilities and heat and mass transfer processesin magnetic fluids have been investigated by numerical simulations and theoretical considerations. Simulation models based on finite element and finite volume methods have been developed. In addition to standard conservation equations, themagnetic field inside the simulation domain is calculated from Maxwell equations and the necessary terms to take into account for the magnetic body force and magnetic dissipation have been added to the equations governing the fluid motion.Numerical simulations of magnetic fluid convection near the threshold supportedexperimental observations qualitatively. Near the onset of convection the competitive action of thermal and concentration density gradients leads to mostly spatiotemporally chaotic convection with oscillatory and travelling wave regimes, previously observed in binary mixtures and nematic liquid crystals. In many applications of magnetic fluids, the heat and mass transfer processes including the effects of external magnetic fields are of great importance. In addition to magnetic fluids, the concepts and the simulation models used in this study may be applied also to the studies of convective instabilities in ordinary fluids as well as in other binary mixtures and complex fluids.

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Työssä tutkittiin kiekkosuodattimeen liittyviä ulkoisia simulointimalleja integroidussa simulointiympäristössä. Työn tarkoituksena oli parantaa olemassa olevaa mekanistista kiekkosuodatinmallia. Malli laadittiin dynaamiseen paperiteollisuuden tarpeisiin tehtyyn simulaattoriin (APMS), jossa olevaan alkuperäiseen mekanistiseen malliin tehtiin ulkoinen lisämalli, joka käyttää hyväkseen kiekkosuodatinvalmistajan mittaustuloksia. Laitetiedon saatavuutta suodattimien käyttäjille parannettiin luomalla Internetissä sijaitsevalle palvelimelle kiekkosuodattimen laitetietomäärittelyt. Suodatinvalmistaja voi palvella asiakkaitaan viemällä laitetiedot palvelimelle ja yhdistämällä laitetiedon simulointimalliin. Tämä on mahdollista Internetin ylitse käytettävän integroidun simulointiympäristön avulla, jonka on tarkoitus kokonaisvaltaisesti yhdistää simulointi ja prosessisuunnittelu. Suunnittelijalle tarjotaan työkalut, joilla dynaaminen simulointi, tasesimulointi ja kaavioiden piirtäminen onnistuu prosessilaitetiedon ollessa saatavilla. Nämä työkalut on tarkoitus toteuttaa projektissa nimeltä Galleria, jossa luodaan prosessimalli- ja laitetietopalvelin Internetiin. Gallerian käyttöliittymän avulla prosessisuunnittelija voi käyttää erilaisia simulointiohjelmistoja ja niihin luotuja valmiita malleja, sekä saada käsiinsä ajan tasalla olevaa laitetietoa. Ulkoinen kiekkosuodatinmalli laskee suodosvirtaamat ja suodosten pitoisuudet likaiselle, kirkkaalle ja superkirkkaalle suodokselle. Mallin syöttöparametrit ovat kiekkojen pyörimisnopeus, sisään tulevan syötön pitoisuus, suotautuvuus (freeness) ja säätöparametri, jolla säädetään likaisen ja kirkkaan suodoksen keskinäinen suhde. Suotautuvuus kertoo mistä massasta on kyse. Mitä suurempi suotautuvuus on, sitä paremmin massa suodattuu ja sitä puhtaampia suodokset yleensä ovat. Mallin parametrit viritettiin regressioanalyysillä ja valmistajan palautetta apuna käyttäen. Käyttäjä voi valita haluaako hän käyttää ulkoista vai alkuperäistä mallia. Alkuperäinen malli täytyy ensin alustaa antamalla sille nominaaliset toimintapisteet virtaamille ja pitoisuuksille tietyllä pyörimisnopeudella. Ulkoisen mallin yhtälöitä voi käyttää alkuperäisen mallin alustamiseen, jos alkuperäinen malli toimii ulkoista paremmin. Ulkoista mallia voi käyttää myös ilman simulointiohjelmaa Galleria-palvelimelta käsin. Käyttäjälle avautuu näin mahdollisuus tarkastella kiekkosuodattimien parametreja ja nähdä suotautumistulokset oman työasemansa ääreltä mistä tahansa, kunhan Internetyhteys on olemassa. Työn tuloksena kiekkosuodattimien laitetiedon saatavuus käyttäjille parani ja alkuperäisen simulointimallin rajoituksia ja puutteita vähennettiin.

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Tutkielman tavoitteena on luoda liiketoimintamalli, joka tukee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden markkinoiden luomista kehittyvillä markkinoilla. Teoreettinen osa tarkastelee langattomien matkaviestintäpalveluiden liiketoimintamallin kehittämisen tärkeimpiä elementtejä CIS maissa. Teoreettisen kappaleen tuloksena saadaan puitteet, jonka avulla liiketoimintamalli matkaviestintäpalveluille voidaan kehittää. Tutkielman empiirinen osa on toteutettu case tutkimuksena, jonka tavoitteena on ollut langattomien matkaviestintäpalvelujen markkinoiden luominen CIS maissa. Pääasiallinen empiirisen tiedon lähde on ollut teemahaastattelut. Tuloksena saatuja empiirisen osan tietoja verrataan teoriakappaleen vastaaviin tuloksiin Tulokset osoittavat, että radikaalin korkean teknologian innovaation markkinoiden luominen on hidas prosessi, joka vaatii kärsivällisyyttä yritykseltä. Markkinoiden, teknologian ja strategian epävarmuustekijät tuovat epävarmuutta kehittyvälle toimialalle ja markkinoille, joka vaikeuttaa liiketoimintamallin kehittämistä. Tärkein tekijä on palvelujen markkinointi ennemmin kuin teknologian. Avain kyvykkyys markkinoiden luomisessa on oppiminen, ei tietäminen.

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Työn tavoitteena oli löytää painelajittimen roottorin keskeiset muuttujat ja ajoparametrit, kun pyritään jälkilajittelemaan valkaistua sellumassaa korkeassa sakeudessa, sekä näiden vaikutukset. Tavoitteena oli teknisesti onnistunut lajittelu korkeassa sakeudessa siten, että laitteen puhdistustehokkuus on hyvä, ominaisenergian kulutus on pieni ja kapasiteetti on korkea. Ensin tarkasteltiin kuitenkin teoreettisesti valkaistun sellumassan painelajittelun ongelmakenttää, keskeisten epäpuhtauksien poistoa jälkilajittelussa ja vertailtiin korkea- ja matalasakeuslajittelua. Lisäksi esiteltiin yleisellä tasolla koesuunnittelumenetelmien periaatteita ja menetelmiä sekä analyysiä so. mallinnus. Tätä taustaa vasten haluttiin myös kartoittaa ja esitellä painelajittimen keskeinen muuttujakenttä. Tämän jälkeen selvitettiin kokeellisesti miten ajettavan valkaistun mäntysellumassan sakeus, roottorin kehänopeus ja roottorin rakenteen muutokset vaikuttavat painelajittimen kapasiteettiin, rejektin sakeutumiskertoimeen, ominaisenergian kulutukseen ja puhdistustehokkuuteen. Vaikutusten ja parhaan roottorirakenteen sekä ajosuureiden määritys suoritettiin mallintamalla mittaustulokset lineaarisella regressioanalyysilla. Saatiin tärkeimmät vasteisiin vaikuttavat riippumattomat muuttujat ja niiden matemaattiset esityk-set, malliyhtälöt. Mallinnusta hyväksi käyttäen tarkasteltiin vielä erikseen yhden roottorin ajoa. Tärkeimpinä tuloksina saatiin selville, että puhdistustehokkuus on lähes vakio tietyllä roottorirakenteella riippumatta sakeudesta ja roottorin kehänopeudesta. Edullista puhdistustehokkuuden kannalta on käyttää ensisijaisesti isoa roottorin palaelementin korkeutta ja välystä suhteessa sihtirumpuun. Jälkilajittelu painelajittimella korkeassa sakeudessa kannattaa suorittaa pienellä roottorin kehänopeudella, runko- ja palaelementtivälyksellä suhteessa sihtirumpuun sekä suurella palaelementin korkeudella. Tällöin saavutetaan hyvä kompromissi ominaisenergian kulutuksen ja laitteen ajettavuuden osalta. Iso elementin korkeus ja pieni elementtivälys eivät aja massaa tehokkaasti laitteen alaosaan. Tällöin ei pyöritetä myöskään suurta massamäärää. Pieni elementtivälys mahdollistaa myös massan tehokkaamman leikkauksen, joka parantaa fluidisoitumista. Kitkavoimat ovat luonnollisesti ko. olosuhteissa suuremmat, joten ominais-energian kulutus kasvaa jonkin verran. Ratkaisevinta ominaisenergian kulutuksen kannalta on kuitenkin ajaa laitetta pienellä kehänopeudella.

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This work presents new, efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation methods for statistical analysis in various modelling applications. When using MCMC methods, the model is simulated repeatedly to explore the probability distribution describing the uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. In adaptive MCMC methods based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, the proposal distribution needed by the algorithm learns from the target distribution as the simulation proceeds. Adaptive MCMC methods have been subject of intensive research lately, as they open a way for essentially easier use of the methodology. The lack of user-friendly computer programs has been a main obstacle for wider acceptance of the methods. This work provides two new adaptive MCMC methods: DRAM and AARJ. The DRAM method has been built especially to work in high dimensional and non-linear problems. The AARJ method is an extension to DRAM for model selection problems, where the mathematical formulation of the model is uncertain and we want simultaneously to fit several different models to the same observations. The methods were developed while keeping in mind the needs of modelling applications typical in environmental sciences. The development work has been pursued while working with several application projects. The applications presented in this work are: a winter time oxygen concentration model for Lake Tuusulanjärvi and adaptive control of the aerator; a nutrition model for Lake Pyhäjärvi and lake management planning; validation of the algorithms of the GOMOS ozone remote sensing instrument on board the Envisat satellite of European Space Agency and the study of the effects of aerosol model selection on the GOMOS algorithm.

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The main objective of the study was to identify and evaluate criteria for international partner selection in university-university context. This study attempted at promoting better understanding of how universities should proceed in selecting partners for producing joint research publications. Thus, the aim of the study was to gain an understanding of how research collaborations can be developed and how partners can be selected. The choice of a right partner has been identified as a precondition for partnership success. In international research collaborations partnering scientists with different skills and backgrounds bring together complementary knowledge into research projects, which in most cases results in a higher quality output. Therefore, prior to selecting a partner, the set of criteria should be established. This research examined twelve Russian universities with the status of national research university as potential partners for Lappeenranta University of Technology, and selected the most appropriate universities based on established set of criteria. Potential partners’ evaluation was done using secondary sources by tracking partners’ academic success during the period 2005 – 2010. Based on established criteria, the study calculated the partnership index for each university. The results of the research reveal that among twelve examined universities there are four potential partners who have been rather active in publishing scientific articles during 2005 – 2010.