Kalman Filtering in Online Paper Quality Assessment

Controlling the quality variables (such as basis weight, moisture etc.) is a vital part of making top quality paper or board. In this thesis, an advanced data assimilation tool is applied to the quality control system (QCS) of a paper or board machine. The functionality of the QCS is based on quality observations that are measured with a traversing scanner making a zigzag path. The basic idea is the following: The measured quality variable has to be separated into its machine direction (MD) and cross direction (CD) variations due to the fact that the QCS works separately in MD and CD. Traditionally this is done simply by assuming one scan of the zigzag path to be the CD profile and its mean value to be one point of the MD trend. In this thesis, a more advanced method is introduced. The fundamental idea is to use the signals’ frequency components to represent the variation in both CD and MD. To be able to get to the frequency domain, the Fourier transform is utilized. The frequency domain, that is, the Fourier components are then used as a state vector in a Kalman filter. The Kalman filter is a widely used data assimilation tool to combine noisy observations with a model. The observations here refer to the quality measurements and the model to the Fourier frequency components. By implementing the two dimensional Fourier transform into the Kalman filter, we get an advanced tool for the separation of CD and MD components in total variation or, to be more general, for data assimilation. A piece of a paper roll is analyzed and this tool is applied to model the dataset. As a result, it is clear that the Kalman filter algorithm is able to reconstruct the main features of the dataset from a zigzag path. Although the results are made with a very short sample of paper roll, it seems that this method has great potential to be used later on as a part of the quality control system.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Vaihtosuuntaajan reaaliaikainen lämpömalli

Vaihtosuuntaajan IGBT-moduulin liitosten lämpötiloja ei voida suoraan mitata, joten niiden arviointiin tarvitaan reaaliaikainen lämpömalli. Tässä työssä on tavoitteena kehittää tähän tarkoitukseen C-kielellä implementoitu ratkaisu, joka on riittävän tarkka ja samalla mahdollisimman laskennallisesti tehokas. Ohjelmallisen toteutuksen täytyy myös sopia erilaisille moduulityypeille ja sen on tarvittaessa otettava huomioon saman moduulin muiden sirujen lämmittävä vaikutus toisiinsa. Kirjallisuuskatsauksen perusteella valitaan olemassa olevista lämpömalleista käytännön toteutuksen pohjaksi lämpöimpedanssimatriisiin perustuva malli. Lämpöimpedanssimatriisista tehdään Simulink-ohjelmalla s-tason simulointimalli, jota käytetään referenssinä muun muassa implementoinnin tarkkuuden verifiointiin. Lämpömalli tarvitsee tiedon vaihtosuuntaajan häviöistä, joten työssä on selvitetty eri vaihtoehtoja häviölaskentaan. Lämpömallin kehittäminen s-tason mallista valmiiksi C-kieliseksi koodiksi on kuvattu tarkasti. Ensin s-tason malli diskretoidaan z-tasoon. Z-tason siirtofunktiot muutetaan puolestaan ensimmäisen kertaluvun differenssiyhtälöiksi. Työssä kehitetty monen aikatason lämpömalli saadaan jakamalla ensimmäisen kertaluvun differenssiyhtälöt eri aikatasoille suoritettavaksi sen mukaan, mikä niiden kuvaileman termin vaatima päivitysnopeus on. Tällainen toteutus voi parhaimmillaan kuluttaa alle viidesosan kellojaksoja verrattuna suoraviivaiseen yhden aikatason toteutukseen. Implementoinnin tarkkuus on hyvä. Implementoinnin vaatimia suoritusaikoja testattiin Texas Instrumentsin TMS320C6727- prosessorilla (300 MHz). Esimerkkimallin laskemisen määritettiin kuluttavan vaihtosuuntaajan toimiessa 5 kHz kytkentätaajuudella vain 0,4 % prosessorin kellojaksoista. Toteutuksen tarkkuus ja laskentakapasiteetin vähäinen vaatimus mahdollistavat lämpömallin käyttämisen lämpösuojaukseen ja lisäämisen osaksi muuta jo prosessorilla olemassa olevaa systeemiä.

A quantitative view on fuzzy numbers

Since its introduction, fuzzy set theory has become a useful tool in the mathematical modelling of problems in Operations Research and many other fields. The number of applications is growing continuously. In this thesis we investigate a special type of fuzzy set, namely fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers (which will be considered in the thesis as possibility distributions) have been widely used in quantitative analysis in recent decades. In this work two measures of interactivity are defined for fuzzy numbers, the possibilistic correlation and correlation ratio. We focus on both the theoretical and practical applications of these new indices. The approach is based on the level-sets of the fuzzy numbers and on the concept of the joint distribution of marginal possibility distributions. The measures possess similar properties to the corresponding probabilistic correlation and correlation ratio. The connections to real life decision making problems are emphasized focusing on the financial applications. We extend the definitions of possibilistic mean value, variance, covariance and correlation to quasi fuzzy numbers and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of possibilistic mean value and variance. The connection between the concepts of probabilistic and possibilistic correlation is investigated using an exponential distribution. The use of fuzzy numbers in practical applications is demonstrated by the Fuzzy Pay-Off method. This model for real option valuation is based on findings from earlier real option valuation models. We illustrate the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers and mean value concepts with the method and provide a real life application.

Stochastic approximation methods in stochastic optimization

Stochastic approximation methods for stochastic optimization are considered. Reviewed the main methods of stochastic approximation: stochastic quasi-gradient algorithm, Kiefer-Wolfowitz algorithm and adaptive rules for them, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) algorithm. Suggested the model and the solution of the retailer's profit optimization problem and considered an application of the SQG-algorithm for the optimization problems with objective functions given in the form of ordinary differential equation.

Partikkelikokojakaumamenetelmän testaus INCA Feature

Tässä työssä testattiin partikkelikokojakaumien analysoinnissa käytettävää kuvankäsittelyohjelmaa INCA Feature. Partikkelikokojakaumat määritettiin elektronimikroskooppikuvista INCA Feature ohjelmaa käyttäen partikkeleiden projektiokuvista päällystyspigmenttinä käytettävälle talkille ja kahdelle eri karbonaattilaadulle. Lisäksi määritettiin partikkelikokojakaumat suodatuksessa ja puhdistuksessa apuaineina käytettäville piidioksidi- ja alumiinioksidihiukkasille. Kuvankäsittelyohjelmalla määritettyjä partikkelikokojakaumia verrattiin partikkelin laskeutumisnopeuteen eli sedimentaatioon perustuvalla SediGraph 5100 analysaattorilla ja laserdiffraktioon perustuvalla Coulter LS 230 menetelmällä analysoituihin partikkelikokojakaumiin. SediGraph 5100 ja kuva-analyysiohjelma antoivat talkkipartikkelien kokojakaumalle hyvin samankaltaisen keskiarvon. Sen sijaan Coulter LS 230 laitteen antama kokojakauman keskiarvo poikkesi edellisistä. Kaikki vertailussa olleet partikkelikokojakaumamenetelmät asettivat eri näytteiden partikkelit samaan kokojärjestykseen. Kuitenkaan menetelmien tuloksia ei voida numeerisesti verrata toisiinsa, sillä kaikissa käytetyissä analyysimenetelmissä partikkelikoon mittaus perustuu partikkelin eri ominaisuuteen. Työn perusteella kaikki testatut analyysimenetelmät soveltuvat paperipigmenttien partikkelikokojakaumien määrittämiseen. Tässä työssä selvitettiin myös kuva-analyysiin tarvittava partikkelien lukumäärä, jolla analyysitulos on luotettava. Työssä todettiin, että analysoitavien partikkelien lukumäärän tulee olla vähintään 300 partikkelia. Liian suuri näytemäärä lisää kokojakauman hajontaa ja pidentää analyysiin käytettyä aikaa useaan tuntiin. Näytteenkäsittely vaatii vielä lisää tutkimuksia, sillä se on tärkein ja kriittisin vaihe SEM ja kuva-analyysiohjelmalla tehtävää partikkelikokoanalyysiä. Automaattisten mikroskooppien yleistyminen helpottaa ja nopeuttaa analyysien tekoa, jolloin menetelmän suosio tulee kasvamaan myös paperipigmenttien tutkimuksessa. Laitteiden korkea hinta ja käyttäjältä vaadittava eritysosaaminen tulevat rajaamaan käytön ainakin toistaiseksi tutkimuslaitoksiin.

Public-Private Partnerships: Managing organizational change for acquiring value creative capabilities

The objective of the dissertation is to examine organizational responses of public actors to customer requirements which drive the transformation of value networks and promote public-private partnership in the electricity distribution industry and elderly care sectors. The research bridges the concept of offering to value networks where capabilities can be acquired for novel product concepts. The research contributes to recent literature, re-examining theories on interactions of customer requirements and supply management. A critical realist case study approach is applied to this abductive the research which directs to describe causalities in the analyzed phenomena. The presented evidence is based on three sources, which are in-depth interviews, archival analysis and the Delphi method. Service provision requires awareness on technology and functionalities of offering. Moreover, service provision includes interactions of multiple partners, which suggests the importance of the co-operative orientation of actors. According to the findings,portfolio management has a key role when intelligent solutions are implemented in public service provision because its concepts involve a variety of resources from multiple suppliers. However, emergent networks are not functional if they lack leaders who have access to the customer interface, have power to steer networks and a capability to build offerings. Public procurement policies were recognized to focus on a narrow scope in which price is a key factor in decisions. In the future, the public sector has to implement technology strategies and portfolio management, which mean longterm platform development and commitment to partnerships. On the other hand, the service providers should also be more aware of offerings into which their products will be integrated in the future. This requires making the customer’s voice in product development and co-operation in order to increase the interconnectivity of products.

Customer satisfaction data utilization: identifying value drivers and information use practices

The objective of this master’s thesis was twofold: first to examine the concept of customer value and its drivers and second to identify information use practices. The first part of the study represents explorative research that was carried out by examining a case company’s customer satisfaction data that was used to identify sales and technical customer service related value drivers on a detailed attribute level. This was followed by an examination of whether these attributes had been commented on in a positive or a negative light and what were the reasons why the case company had received higher or lower ratings than its competitor. As a result a classification of different sales and technical customer service related attributes was created. The results indicated that the case company has performed well, but that the results varied on the company’s business segment level. The case company’s staff, service and the benefits from a long-lasting relationship came up in a positive light whereas attitude, flexibility and reaction time came up in a negative light. The reasons for a higher or lower score in comparison to competitor varied. The results indicated that a customer’s satisfaction with the company’s performance did not always mean that the company was outperforming the competition. The second part of the study focused on customer satisfaction information use from the viewpoints of information access, dissemination and reaction. The study was conducted by running an internal survey among the case company’s staff. The results showed that information use practices varied across the company and some units or teams had taken a more proactive approach to the information use than others.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE LOCAL ADVANTAGE? - Investment value of the analyst local advantage in the Finnish stock market in 2006–2014

An investor can either conduct independent analysis or rely on the analyses of others. Stock analysts provide markets with expectations regarding particular securities. However, analysts have different capabilities and resources, of which investors are seldom cognizant. The local advantage refers to the advantage stemming from cultural or geographical proximity to securities analyzed. The research has confirmed that local agents are generally more accurate or produce excess returns. This thesis tests the investment value of the local advantage regarding Finnish stocks via target price data. The empirical section investigates the local advantage from several aspects. It is discovered that local analysts were more focused on certain sectors generally located close to consumer markets. Market reactions to target price revisions were generally insignificant with the exception to local positive target prices. Both local and foreign target prices were overly optimistic and exhibited signs of herding. Neither group could be identified as a leader or follower of new information. Additionally, foreign price change expectations were more in line with the quantitative models and ideas such as beta or return mean reversion. The locals were more accurate than foreign analysts in 5 out of 9 sectors and vice versa in one. These sectors were somewhat in line with coverage decisions and buttressed the idea of local advantage stemming from proximity to markets, not to headquarters. The accuracy advantage was dependent on sample years and on the measure used. Local analysts ranked magnitudes of price changes more accurately in optimistic and foreign analysts in pessimistic target prices. Directional accuracy of both groups was under 50% and target prices held no linear predictive power. Investment value of target prices were tested by forming mean-variance efficient portfolios. Parallel to differing accuracies in the levels of expectations foreign portfolio performed better when short sales were allowed and local better when disallowed. Both local and non-local portfolios performed worse than a passive index fund, albeit not statistically significantly. This was in line with previously reported low overall accuracy and different accuracy profiles. Refraining from estimating individual stock returns altogether produced statistically significantly higher Sharpe ratios compared to local or foreign portfolios. The proposed method of testing the investment value of target prices of different groups suffered from some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, these results are of interest to investors seeking the advice of security analysts.

Children of Matter: Luxury Value Perceptions of Millennials in Higher Education in Europe

In recent years, the luxury market has entered a period of very modest growth, which has been dubbed the ‘new normal’, where varying tourist flows, currency fluctuations, and shifted consumer tastes dictate the terms. The modern luxury consumer is a fickle mistress. Especially millennials – people born in the 1980s and 1990s – are the embodiment of this new form of demanding luxury consumer with particular tastes and values. Modern consumers, and specifically millennials, want experiences and free time, and are interested in a brand’s societal position and environmental impact. The purpose of this thesis is to investigate what the luxury value perceptions of millennials in higher education are in Europe, seeing as many of the most prominent luxury goods companies in the world originate from Europe. Perceived luxury value is herein examined from the individual’s perspective. As values and value perceptions are complex constructs, using qualitative research methods is justifiable. The data for thesis has been gathered by means of a group interview. The interview participants all study hospitality management in a private college, and each represent a different nationality. Cultural theories and research on luxury and luxury values provide the scientific foundation for this thesis, and a multidimensional luxury value model is used as a theoretical tool in sorting and analyzing the data. The results show that millennials in Europe value much more than simply modern and hard luxury. Functional, financial, individual, and social aspects are all present in perceived luxury value, but some more in a negative sense than others. Conspicuous, status-seeking consumption is mostly frowned upon, as is the consumption of luxury goods for the sake of satisfying social requisites and peer pressure. Most of the positive value perceptions are attributed to the functional dimension, as luxury products are seen to come with a promise of high quality and reliability, which justifies any price premiums. Ecological and ethical aspects of luxury are already a contemporary trend, but perceived even more as an important characteristic of luxury in the future. Most importantly, having time is fundamental. Depending on who is asked, luxury can mean anything, just as much as it can mean nothing.