Framing the Gas Market Uncertainty in Russian Gas Export Policy: The Role of Underlying Ideas

Gas suppliers including Russia are facing the gas market uncertainty caused by the fast growing development of shale gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Given that Russia is one of the key energy suppliers in the world, Russian energy policy is intensively studied. However, the majority of the researches focus on the conventional gas sector and very few focus on the unconventional gas sector such as shale gas and LNG. In this light, this thesis aims at examining how the gas market uncertainty is framed in Russian gas export policy as well as discover how the interaction between underlying ideas and the policy frames informs policymaking. After analyzing Russian official documents, three policy frames were identified: shale gas—competition frame, LNG—cooperation frame and cooperation—competition frame. The shale gas—competition frame emphasizes the confrontation with the shale revolution in the USA. The LNG—cooperation frame rests on the idea of building cooperation with the Asia-Pacific region by the LNG trade. The cooperation—competition frame describes the oscillating Russia-EU relationship. Both the economic and ecological dimensions in the policy environment enable these three policy frames. However, the cooperation frame is constrained by the physical dimension since Russia has only one LNG facility in use. The institutional dimension underpins the idea of competition in the cooperation—competition frame. The reason is because of the divergent perspectives between Russia and the EU regarding regulations and market liberalizations. In sum, the result is different from the traditional geopolitical frame which depicts Russia as an energy superpower. Instead, this thesis suggests that Russia is shifting the priority from political interests to business interests in Russian gas export policy, particularly in the domain of shale gas and LNG.

Ruostumattoman teräksen käyttö ja käyttövaatimukset LNG:n varasto- ja kuljetusjärjestelmissä

On arvioitu, että koko maailmaa kattava energiantarve nousee 1,2 % vuosinopeudella. Asiaa ei kaunista se tosiasia, että valtaosa tänä päivänä tuotetusta energiasta (85 %) on lähtöisin fossiilisista polttoaineista. Päästöjen on arvioitu lisääntyvän 2005 – 2030 välisenä aikana noin 30 %, vaikka uusiutuvaa energiaa käytettäisiin ja prosessien hyötysuhteet paranisivat. Vuonna 2015 voimaan tuleva rikkidirektiivi on pakottanut asiantuntijat löytämään korvaavan energialähteen, joka vähentäisi päästöjen määrää, ja jota esiintyisi suurissa määrissä. Nesteytetty maakaasu, LNG, toteuttaa edellä mainitut ehdot. Tässä diplomityössä perehdytään LNG-teollisuuden arvoketjuun Suomessa sekä muualla maailmassa. Työssä pääpainona on selvittää ruostumattoman teräksen käyttömahdollisuuksia nykyisessä LNG-teollisuuden arvoketjussa sekä selvittää sen uusia sovelluskohteita LNG-alalla tulevaisuudessa. Diplomityössä on tehty laaja kirjallisuuskatsaus LNG:n arvoketjuun ja uuden EN 1.4420 ruostumattoman teräksen soveltuvuuteen kryogeenisissä lämpötiloissa. Työn aikana on myös tehty useita haastatteluja LNG-teollisuudessa toimivien henkilöiden kanssa. Menetelmäkokeita ja koehitsauksia on suoritettu näiden haastattelujen perusteella.

Techno-Economic Assessment of LNG and Diesel Production and Global Trading Based on Hybrid PV-Wind Power Plants and PtG, GtL and PtL Technologies

With growing demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquid transportation fuels, and concerns about climate change and causes of greenhouse gas emissions, this master’s thesis introduces a new value chain design for LNG and transportation fuels and respective fundamental business cases based on hybrid PV-Wind power plants. The value chains are composed of renewable electricity (RE) converted by power-to-gas (PtG), gas-to-liquids (GtL) or power-to-liquids (PtL) facilities into SNG (which is finally liquefied into LNG) or synthetic liquid fuels, mainly diesel, respectively. The RE-LNG or RE-diesel are drop-in fuels to the current energy system and can be traded everywhere in the world. The calculations for the hybrid PV-Wind power plants, electrolysis, methanation (H2tSNG), hydrogen-to-liquids (H2tL), GtL and LNG value chain are performed based on both annual full load hours (FLh) and hourly analysis. Results show that the proposed RE-LNG produced in Patagonia, as the study case, is competitive with conventional LNG in Japan for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 87 - 145 USD/barrel (20 – 26 USD/MBtu of LNG production cost) and the proposed RE-diesel is competitive with conventional diesel in the European Union (EU) for crude oil prices within a minimum price range of about 79 - 135 USD/barrel (0.44 – 0.75 €/l of diesel production cost), depending on the chosen specific value chain and assumptions for cost of capital, available oxygen sales and CO2 emission costs. RE-LNG or RE-diesel could become competitive with conventional fuels from an economic perspective, while removing environmental concerns. The RE-PtX value chain needs to be located at the best complementing solar and wind sites in the world combined with a de-risking strategy. This could be an opportunity for many countries to satisfy their fuel demand locally. It is also a specific business case for countries with excellent solar and wind resources to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons, when the decrease in production cost is considerably more than the shipping cost. This is a unique opportunity to export carbon-neutral hydrocarbons around the world where the environmental limitations on conventional hydrocarbons are getting tighter.