Predictors and Correlates of Substance Use among Young Men. The Longitudinal “From a Boy to a Man” Birth Cohort Study.

Substance use is one of our most important public health problems. Studying risk factors in a longitudinal study setting helps to identify subgroups of young people at greater risk for substance-use-related problems, and to facilitate targeted prevention efforts. The aim of this thesis was to study childhood predictors and correlates of substance-use-related outcomes among young men in a longitudinal, nationwide birth cohort study. The study population included 10% of all Finnish-speaking boys born in Finland in 1981 (n=2946, 97% of the target population). In 1989, at age eight, valid measures of psychiatric symptoms (Rutter questionnaires and Children’s Depression Inventory) were obtained from parents, teachers and the boys themselves. In 1999, at age 18, boys were reached at their obligatory military call-up (n=2348, 80% of the boys attending the study in 1989). Self-reports of substance use, psychopathology, adaptive functioning (Young Adult Self-Report), and mental health service use were obtained through questionnaires. Information about psychiatric diagnoses from the Military Register (age 18-23 years) and information about offending from the National Police Register (age 16-20 years) were collected in early adulthood (92% of the 1989sample). Boys with childhood conduct, hyperactive, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems had elevated rates of substance use and substance-use-related crime in early adulthood. Depressive symptoms predicted daily smoking, especially among boys of low-educated fathers. Emotional problems predicted lower occurrence of drunkenness-related alcohol use and smoking. Teacher reports on boys’ problem behaviour had the best predictive power for later substance use. At age 18, frequent drunkenness associated with delinquency, smoking and illicit drug use, and having friends. Occasional drunkenness associated with better psychosocial functioning in general compared to boys with frequent drunkenness or without drunkenness-related alcohol use. Illicit drug use without drug offending was not predicted by childhood psychiatric symptoms, but 22% of boys with illicit drug use had a psychiatric diagnosis in early adulthood. Drug offenders, in turn, had psychiatric problems both in childhood and in adulthood. Psychiatric disorders were common among young men with substance-use-related crime. Recidivist crime associated strongly with having a substance use disorder diagnosis according to the Military Register. At age 18, frequent drunkenness was common among boys entering mental health services, but entering substance use treatment was non-existent. According to the findings of this thesis, substance-use-related outcomes accumulate in boys having psychiatric problems both in childhood and in early adulthood. Targeted early interventions in school health care systems, particularly for boys with childhood hyperactive, conduct, and comorbid conduct-emotional problems are recommended. Psychiatric problems and risky behaviours, such as delinquency should always be assessed alongside substance use. Specialized and multidisciplinary care are required for young men who have multiple or complex needs, for instance, for young men with drug offending and recidivist crime. Integrating a substance use treatment perspective with other services where young men are encountered is emphasized.

Childhood Overweight - Predictors, Consequences and Prevention

Childhood overweight has become more prevalent during the past three decades. The aim of the present study was to examine possible predictors of childhood overweight and to evaluate the effect of individualised, biannual dietary and lifestyle counselling, with onset in infancy and primary aim at decreasing serum LDLcholesterol, on the development of overweight and related comorbidities. The study was part of the Special Turku coronary Risk factor Intervention Project (STRIP), in which 7-month-old children were randomised into an intervention group (N=540) or to a control group (N=522). The children in the control group were followed up along with the intervention group but they did not receive the individualised counselling. At the age of 15 years, 11.9 % of girls and 13.7 % of boys were overweight. The most important predictors of overweight at age 15 years were paternal weight status at the child’s age 7 months, rapid weight gain during the first two years of life, and early adiposity rebound. Leptin, a protein secreted by adipocytes, did not predict the development of overweight. Homozygosity for the overweight-associated FTO gene variant was associated with increased BMI and risk of overweight in children older than 7 years of age. The intervention given in the STRIP trial was not intense enough to overcome the effect of the FTO genotype. Although the intervention given in the STRIP trial had no significant effect on the proportion of overweight girls and boys, it did reduce the number and clustering of overweight-related cardiometabolic risk factors. This study showed that parental weight status, rapid weight gain early in life, and having two risk alleles in the FTO gene are strongly associated with overweight in adolescence. Biannual dietary and lifestyle counselling is not intense enough to prevent overweight but it has beneficial effects on the overweight-related cardiometabolic risk.

Fractures in older people - incidence, predictors and consequences

In older populations, fractures are common and the consequences of fractures may be serious both for an individual and for society. However, information is scarce about the incidence, predictors and consequences of fractures in population-based unselected cohorts including both men and women and a long follow-up. The objective of this study was to analyse the incidence and predictors of fractures as well as functional decline and excess mortality due to fractures, among 482 men and 695 women aged 65 or older in the municipality of Lieto, Finland from 1991 until 2002. In analyses, Poisson’s, Cox proportional Hazards and Cumulative Logistic regression models were used for the control of several confounding variables. During the 12-year follow-up with a total of 10 040 person-years (PY), 307 (26%) persons sustained altogether 425 fractures of which 77% were sustained by women. The total incidence of fractures was 53.4 per 1000 PY (95% confidence intervals [95% CI]: 47.9 - 59.5) in women and 24.9 per 1000 PY (95% CI: 20.4 - 30.4) in men. The incidence rates of fractures at any sites and hip fractures were associated with increasing age. No significant changes in the ageadjusted incidence rates of fractures were found in either gender during the 12-year follow-up. The predictors of fractures varied by gender. In multivariate analyses, reduced handgrip strength and body mass index (BMI) lower than 30 in women and a large number of depressive symptoms in men were independent predictors of fractures. A compression fracture in one or more thoracic or upper lumbar vertebras on chest radiography at baseline was associated with subsequent fractures in both genders. Lower body fractures independently predicted both short- (0-2 years) and long-term (up to 8 years) functional decline in mobility and activities of daily living (ADL) performance during the 8-year follow-up. Upper body fractures predicted decline in ADL performance during longterm follow-up. In the 12-year follow-up, hip fractures in men (Hazard Ratio [HR] 8.1, 95% CI: 4.4-14.9) and in women (HR 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9-4.9), and fractures at the proximal humerus in men (HR 5.4, 95% CI: 1.6-17.7) were independently associated with excess mortality. In addition, leisure time inactivity in physical exercise predicted independently both functional decline and excess mortality. Fractures are common among older people posing serious individual consequences. Further studies about the effectiveness of preventing falls and fractures as well as improving care and rehabilitation after fractures are needed.

Socially Competent Leadership - predictors, impacts and skilling in engineering

Earlier management studies have found a relationship between managerial qualities and subordinate impacts, but the effect of managers‘ social competence on leader perceptions has not been solidly established. To fill the related research gap, the present work embarks on a quantitative empirical effort to identify predictors of successful leadership. In particular, this study investigates relationships between perceived leader behavior and three selfreport instruments used to measure managerial capability: 1) the WOPI Work Personality Inventory, 2) Raven‘s general intelligence scale, and 3) the Emotive Communication Scale (ECS). This work complements previous research by resorting to both self-reports and other-reports: the results acquired from the managerial sample are compared to subordinate perceptions as measured through the ECS other-report and the WOPI360 multi-source appraisal. The quantitative research is comprised of a sample of 8o superiors and 354 subordinates operating in eight Finnish organizations. The strongest predictive value emerged from the ECS self- and other-reports and certain personality dimensions. In contrast, supervisors‘ logical intelligence did not correlate with leadership perceived as socially competent by subordinates. 16 of the superiors rated as most socially competent by their subordinates were selected for case analysis. Their qualitative narratives evidence the role of life history and post-traumatic growth in developing managerial skills. The results contribute to leadership theory in four ways. First, the ECS self-report devised for this research offers a reliable scale for predicting socially competent leader ability. Second, the work identifies dimensions of personality and emotive skills that can be considered predictors of managerial ability and benefited from in leader recruitment and career planning. Third, the Emotive Communication Model delineated on the basis of the empirical data allows for a systematic design and planning of communication and leadership education. Fourth, this workfurthers understanding of personal growth strategies and the role of life history in leader development and training. Finally, this research advances educational leadership by conceptualizing and operationalizing effective managerial communications. The Emotive Communication Model devised directs the pedagogic attention in engineering to assertion, emotional availability and inspiration skills. The proposed methodology addresses classroom management strategies drawing from problem-based learning, student empowerment, collaborative learning, and so-called socially competent teachership founded on teacher immediacy and perceived caring, all constituting strategies moving away from student compliance and teacher modelling. The ultimate educational objective embraces the development of individual engineers and organizational leaders that not only possess traditional analytical and technical expertise and substantive knowledge but are intelligent also creatively, practically, and socially.

Metabolic syndrome in young adults – prevalence, childhood predictors and association with subclinical atherosclerosis

Background: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including central obesity, insulin resistance, impaired glucose tolerance, hypertension and dyslipidemia. The prevalence of MetS is increasing worldwide in all age groups. MetS is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Aims: The aim of the present study was to investigate the prevalence, secular trends and childhood predictors of MetS in young adults. Furthermore, the relations between MetS and subclinical atherosclerosis were studied and whether apolipoproteins (apo) B and A-I, C-reactive protein (CRP) and type II secretory phospholipase A2 (sPLA2) were associated with MetS, and to what extent the atherogenicity of MetS was explained by these factors. Participants and Methods: The present thesis is part of the large scale population-based, prospective study, the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. The first cross-sectional study was conducted in 1980 and included 3,596 participants aged 3-18 years. Carotid and brachial ultrasound studies were performed for 2,283 of these participants in 2001 and 2,200 of these participants in 2007. Results: The overall prevalence of MetS in young adults aged 24-39 years in 2001 was 10-15 % and 6 years later in 30-45 year-old adults it was 15-23 % depending on the MetS definition used. Between the years 1986 and 2001, MetS prevalence increased from 1.0 % to 7.5 % (p<0.0001) in 24-year-old participants that was mostly driven by the increased central obesity. Participants with MetS had increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) and decreased carotid elasticity compared to those without the syndrome. Impaired brachial flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) was not related to MetS but it modified the relationship between MetS and cIMT (P for interaction 0.023). High levels of apoB, CRP, sPLA2 and low levels of apoA-I associated with MetS in young adults. In prospective analysis both MetS and high apoB predicted (P<0.0001) incident high cIMT, defined as cIMT>90th percentile and/or plaque. The association between MetS and incident high cIMT was attenuated by ~40 % after adjustment with apoB. Conclusions: MetS is common in young adults and increases with age. Screening for risk factors, especially obesity, at an early life stage could help identify children and adolescents at increased risk of developing MetS and cardiovascular disease later in life. MetS identifies a population of young adults with evidence of increased subclinical atherosclerosis. Impaired brachial endothelial response is not a hallmark of MetS in young adults, but the status of endothelial function modifies the association between metabolic risk factors and atherosclerosis. In addition, the atherogenicity of MetS in this population assessed by incident high cIMT appears to be substantially mediated by elevated apoB.

Pain symptoms and sleep problems among school-aged children. Long-term prevalence changes, and pain symptoms as predictors of later mental health

Children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems are among the most common health complaints. They distract children from activities, decrease the quality of life, contribute to a significant economic burden, and have shown continuity into adulthood. The main aims of this thesis were to investigate long-term changes in the prevalence of pain symptoms and sleep problems among Finnish school-aged children, and the later mental health of those who in childhood experience pain. Prevalence, co-occurrence, and associated psychosocial factors of pain symptoms and sleep problems were also assessed. In study I, prevalence changes in eight-year-old children’s pain symptoms and sleep problems were investigated in three cross-sectional population-based samples (years 1989: n=1038, 1999: n=1035, and 2005: n=1030). In study II, cross-sectional associations between pain symptoms, sleep problems, and psychosocial factors were assessed among 13-18-year-old adolescents (n=2476). In studies III and IV, associations between pain symptoms at age eight (n=6017), and register-based data on antidepressant use and severe suicidality by age 24, were examined in a nationwide birth cohort. Pain symptoms and sleep problems were common and often co-occurred. A considerable number of children’s pain symptoms remained unrecognized by the parents. The prevalence of pain symptoms, sleep problems, and multiple concurrent symptoms approximately doubled from 1989 to 2005. Psychiatric difficulties or demographic factors did not explain the increase. Psychosocial factors that were associated with pain, sleep problems, and a higher number of symptoms, were female sex, psychological difficulties, emotional symptoms, smoking, victimization, and feeling not cared about by teachers. In longitudinal analyses, the child’s own report of headache, and to a smaller degree the parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted later antidepressant use. Parental report of the child’s abdominal pain predicted severe suicidality among males. If one of the symptoms is present, health care professionals should inquire about other symptoms as well. Questions should be directed to the children, not only to their parents. Inquiring about psychiatric difficulties, substance use, victimization, and relations with teachers should be included as a part of the assessment. Further studies are needed to clarify the reasons that underlie the increased prevalence rates, and the factors that may increase or decrease the risk for later mental health problems among pain-suffering children.

Determinants of Bone Strength and Predictors of Hip Fracture among Finnish Adults. Results from the Health 2000 Survey and the Mini-Finland Health Survey

The objective of this thesis was to identify the determinants of bone strength and predictors of hip fracture in representative samples of Finnish adults. A secondary objective was to construct a simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction over a 10-year follow-up period. The study was based on the Health 2000 Survey conducted during 2000 to 2001 (men and women aged 30 years or over, n=6 035) and the Mini-Finland Health Survey conducted during 1978 to 1980 (women aged 45 years or over, n=2 039). Study subjects participated in health interviews and comprehensive health examination. In the Health 2000 Survey, bone strength was assessed by means of calcaneal quantitative ultrasound (QUS). The follow-up information about hip fractures was drawn from the National Hospital Discharge Register. In this study, age, weight, height, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (S-25(OH)D), physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption as well as menopause and eventual HRT in women were found to be associated with calcaneal broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) and speed of sound (SOS). Parity was associated with a decreased risk of hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Age, height, weight or waist circumference, quantitative ultrasound index (QUI), S-25(OH)D and fall-related factors, such as maximal walking speed, Parkinson’s disease, and the number of prescribed CNS active medication were significant independent predictors of hip fracture. At the population level, the incremental value of QUS appeared to be minor in hip fracture prediction when the fall-related risk factors were taken into account. A simple multifactorial model for hip fracture prediction presented in this study was based on readily available factors (age, gender, height, waist circumference, and fallrelated factors). Prospective studies are needed to test this model in patient-based study populations.

Quantification of Toxin Biosynthesis Genes In Cyanobacteria and Dinoflagellates - Genetic Factors as Predictors of Toxin Production in the Environment

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are events caused by the massive proliferation of microscopic, often photosynthetic organisms that inhabit both fresh and marine waters. Although HABs are essentially a natural phenomenon, they now cause worldwide concern. Recent anthropogenic effects, such as climate change and eutrophication via nutrient runoff, can be seen in their increased prevalence and severity. Cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates are often the causative organisms of HABs. In addition to adverse effects caused by the sheer biomass, certain species produce highly potent toxic compounds: hepatotoxic microcystins are produced exclusively by cyanobacteria and neurotoxic saxitoxins, also known as paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), by both cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates. Specific biosynthetic genes in the cyanobacterial genomes direct the production of microcystin and paralytic shellfish toxins. Recently also the first paralytic shellfish toxin gene sequences from dinoflagellate genomes have been elucidated. The public health risks presented by HABs are evident, but the monitoring and prediction of toxic events is challenging. Characterization of the genetic background of toxin biosynthesis, including that of microcystins and paralytic shellfish toxins, has made it possible to develop highly sensitive molecular tools which have shown promise in the monitoring and study of potentially toxic microalgae. In this doctoral work, toxin-specific genes were targeted in the developed PCR and qPCR assays for the detection and quantification of potentially toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates in the environment. The correlation between the copy numbers of the toxin biosynthesis genes and toxin production were investigated to assess whether the developed methods could be used to predict toxin concentrations. The nature of the correlation between gene copy numbers and amount of toxin produced varied depending on the targeted gene and the producing organism. The combined mcyB copy numbers of three potentially microcystin-producing cyanobacterial genera showed significant positive correlation to the observed total toxin production. However, the presence of PST-specific sxtA, sxtG, and sxtB genes of cyanobacterial origin was found to be a poor predictor of toxin production in the studied area. Conversely, the dinoflagellate sxtA4 was a good qualitative indicator of a neurotoxic bloom both in the laboratory and in the field, and population densities reflected well the observed toxin concentrations. In conclusion, although the specificity of each potential targeted toxin biosynthesis gene must be assessed individually during method development, the results obtained in this doctoral study support the use of quantitative PCR -based approaches in the monitoring of toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates.

Bank Income Diversification and its Impact on Profitability and Risk: Evidence from Nordic Markets

Financial industry has recently encountered many changes in the business environment. Increased regulation together with growing competition is forcing commercial banks to rethink their business models. In order to maintain profitability in the new environment, banks are focusing more into activities that yield noninterest income. This is a shift away from the traditional intermediation function of banks. This study aims to answer the question if the shift from traditional income yielding activities to more innovative noninterest activities is logical in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. This study also aims to answer the question if diversification within the noninterest income categories has impact on profitability and risk and if there are certain categories of noninterest income that are better than others in terms of profitability and risk in Nordics. Results show that diversification between interest and noninterest activities and increase in the share of noninterest income have a negative impact on the risk adjusted returns and risk profile. Results also show that further diversification within the noninterest income categories has negative impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk while an increase of the share of commission and fee income category of total noninterest income has a positive impact on risk adjusted profitability and risk. Results are logical and in line with previous research (De Young & Roland, 2001; Stiroh, 2004). Results provide useful information to banks and help them better evaluate outcomes of different income diversification strategies.

PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF A TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION – Evidence from the Black–Litterman model based fixed income portfolio

Over time the demand for quantitative portfolio management has increased among financial institutions but there is still a lack of practical tools. In 2008 EDHEC Risk and Asset Management Research Centre conducted a survey of European investment practices. It revealed that the majority of asset or fund management companies, pension funds and institutional investors do not use more sophisticated models to compensate the flaws of the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio optimization. Furthermore, tactical asset allocation managers employ a variety of methods to estimate return and risk of assets, but also need sophisticated portfolio management models to outperform their benchmarks. Recent development in portfolio management suggests that new innovations are slowly gaining ground, but still need to be studied carefully. This thesis tries to provide a practical tactical asset allocation (TAA) application to the Black–Litterman (B–L) approach and unbiased evaluation of B–L models’ qualities. Mean-variance framework, issues related to asset allocation decisions and return forecasting are examined carefully to uncover issues effecting active portfolio management. European fixed income data is employed in an empirical study that tries to reveal whether a B–L model based TAA portfolio is able outperform its strategic benchmark. The tactical asset allocation utilizes Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to create return forecasts from lagged values of asset classes as well as economic variables. Sample data (31.12.1999–31.12.2012) is divided into two. In-sample data is used for calibrating a strategic portfolio and the out-of-sample period is for testing the tactical portfolio against the strategic benchmark. Results show that B–L model based tactical asset allocation outperforms the benchmark portfolio in terms of risk-adjusted return and mean excess return. The VAR-model is able to pick up the change in investor sentiment and the B–L model adjusts portfolio weights in a controlled manner. TAA portfolio shows promise especially in moderately shifting allocation to more risky assets while market is turning bullish, but without overweighting investments with high beta. Based on findings in thesis, Black–Litterman model offers a good platform for active asset managers to quantify their views on investments and implement their strategies. B–L model shows potential and offers interesting research avenues. However, success of tactical asset allocation is still highly dependent on the quality of input estimates.