ISBN (international standard book number) -an international perspective

Esitelmä Suomen ISBN-keskus 30 vuotta -juhlassa Helsingin yliopistossa 7.11.2002

Linear prediction application for modelling the relationships between a large number of stand characteristics of Norway spruce stands

Abstract

Sähköautojen pikalatauksen verkkovaikutukset

Euroopan unionin energiapolitiikka on luonut paineen parantaa energiatehokkuutta kaikilla energiankäytön aloilla. Merkittävä osa energiasta kulutetaan liikenteessä, joten sähköautojen käyttöönotolla voidaan parantaa energiatehokkuutta merkittävästi. Tämän vuoksi on tarkasteltava sähköautojen laajamittaisen levinneisyyden aiheuttamia vaikutuksia sähköverkolle. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan sähköautojen pikalatauksen verkkovaikutuksia. Tarkastelu painottuu kotilatauksen tarkasteluun taajamissa ja maaseudulla. Kuormituksen kasvu simuloidaan hyödyntäen sähköauton lataukselle laskettua kuormituskäyrää, jonka laskenta perustuu keskimääräiseen henkilöauton liikkumiseen, joka on saatavilla Suomen henkilöliikennetutkimuksesta. Simuloinnin tulosten perusteella sähköauton pikalatauksen verkkovaikutukset ovat merkittäviä keskijänniteverkossa ja pienjänniteverkossa. Suuremmat vaikutukset kohdistuvat pienjänniteverkkoon.

Kernel-Based Ranking. Methods for Learning and Performance Estimation

Machine learning provides tools for automated construction of predictive models in data intensive areas of engineering and science. The family of regularized kernel methods have in the recent years become one of the mainstream approaches to machine learning, due to a number of advantages the methods share. The approach provides theoretically well-founded solutions to the problems of under- and overfitting, allows learning from structured data, and has been empirically demonstrated to yield high predictive performance on a wide range of application domains. Historically, the problems of classification and regression have gained the majority of attention in the field. In this thesis we focus on another type of learning problem, that of learning to rank. In learning to rank, the aim is from a set of past observations to learn a ranking function that can order new objects according to how well they match some underlying criterion of goodness. As an important special case of the setting, we can recover the bipartite ranking problem, corresponding to maximizing the area under the ROC curve (AUC) in binary classification. Ranking applications appear in a large variety of settings, examples encountered in this thesis include document retrieval in web search, recommender systems, information extraction and automated parsing of natural language. We consider the pairwise approach to learning to rank, where ranking models are learned by minimizing the expected probability of ranking any two randomly drawn test examples incorrectly. The development of computationally efficient kernel methods, based on this approach, has in the past proven to be challenging. Moreover, it is not clear what techniques for estimating the predictive performance of learned models are the most reliable in the ranking setting, and how the techniques can be implemented efficiently. The contributions of this thesis are as follows. First, we develop RankRLS, a computationally efficient kernel method for learning to rank, that is based on minimizing a regularized pairwise least-squares loss. In addition to training methods, we introduce a variety of algorithms for tasks such as model selection, multi-output learning, and cross-validation, based on computational shortcuts from matrix algebra. Second, we improve the fastest known training method for the linear version of the RankSVM algorithm, which is one of the most well established methods for learning to rank. Third, we study the combination of the empirical kernel map and reduced set approximation, which allows the large-scale training of kernel machines using linear solvers, and propose computationally efficient solutions to cross-validation when using the approach. Next, we explore the problem of reliable cross-validation when using AUC as a performance criterion, through an extensive simulation study. We demonstrate that the proposed leave-pair-out cross-validation approach leads to more reliable performance estimation than commonly used alternative approaches. Finally, we present a case study on applying machine learning to information extraction from biomedical literature, which combines several of the approaches considered in the thesis. The thesis is divided into two parts. Part I provides the background for the research work and summarizes the most central results, Part II consists of the five original research articles that are the main contribution of this thesis.

Spontaneous Focusing on Quantitative Relations and the Development of Rational Number Conceptual Knowledge

The aim of the present set of studies was to explore primary school children’s Spontaneous Focusing On quantitative Relations (SFOR) and its role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. The specific goals were to determine if it was possible to identify a spontaneous quantitative focusing tendency that indexes children’s tendency to recognize and utilize quantitative relations in non-explicitly mathematical situations and to determine if this tendency has an impact on the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in late primary school. To this end, we report on six original empirical studies that measure SFOR in children ages five to thirteen years and the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in ten- to thirteen-year-olds. SFOR measures were developed to determine if there are substantial differences in SFOR that are not explained by the ability to use quantitative relations. A measure of children’s conceptual knowledge of the magnitude representations of rational numbers and the density of rational numbers is utilized to capture the process of conceptual change with rational numbers in late primary school students. Finally, SFOR tendency was examined in relation to the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in these students. Study I concerned the first attempts to measure individual differences in children’s spontaneous recognition and use of quantitative relations in 86 Finnish children from the ages of five to seven years. Results revealed that there were substantial inter-individual differences in the spontaneous recognition and use of quantitative relations in these tasks. This was particularly true for the oldest group of participants, who were in grade one (roughly seven years old). However, the study did not control for ability to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, so it was not clear if these differences were due to ability or SFOR. Study II more deeply investigated the nature of the two tasks reported in Study I, through the use of a stimulated-recall procedure examining children’s verbalizations of how they interpreted the tasks. Results reveal that participants were able to verbalize reasoning about their quantitative relational responses, but not their responses based on exact number. Furthermore, participants’ non-mathematical responses revealed a variety of other aspects, beyond quantitative relations and exact number, which participants focused on in completing the tasks. These results suggest that exact number may be more easily perceived than quantitative relations. As well, these tasks were revealed to contain both mathematical and non-mathematical aspects which were interpreted by the participants as relevant. Study III investigated individual differences in SFOR 84 children, ages five to nine, from the US and is the first to report on the connection between SFOR and other mathematical abilities. The cross-sectional data revealed that there were individual differences in SFOR. Importantly, these differences were not entirely explained by the ability to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, suggesting that SFOR is partially independent from the ability to use quantitative relations. In other words, the lack of use of quantitative relations on the SFOR tasks was not solely due to participants being unable to solve the tasks using quantitative relations, but due to a lack of the spontaneous attention to the quantitative relations in the tasks. Furthermore, SFOR tendency was found to be related to arithmetic fluency among these participants. This is the first evidence to suggest that SFOR may be a partially distinct aspect of children’s existing mathematical competences. Study IV presented a follow-up study of the first graders who participated in Studies I and II, examining SFOR tendency as a predictor of their conceptual knowledge of fraction magnitudes in fourth grade. Results revealed that first graders’ SFOR tendency was a unique predictor of fraction conceptual knowledge in fourth grade, even after controlling for general mathematical skills. These results are the first to suggest that SFOR tendency may play a role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. Study V presents a longitudinal study of the development of 263 Finnish students’ rational number conceptual knowledge over a one year period. During this time participants completed a measure of conceptual knowledge of the magnitude representations and the density of rational numbers at three time points. First, a Latent Profile Analysis indicated that a four-class model, differentiating between those participants with high magnitude comparison and density knowledge, was the most appropriate. A Latent Transition Analysis reveal that few students display sustained conceptual change with density concepts, though conceptual change with magnitude representations is present in this group. Overall, this study indicated that there were severe deficiencies in conceptual knowledge of rational numbers, especially concepts of density. The longitudinal Study VI presented a synthesis of the previous studies in order to specifically detail the role of SFOR tendency in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. Thus, the same participants from Study V completed a measure of SFOR, along with the rational number test, including a fourth time point. Results reveal that SFOR tendency was a predictor of rational number conceptual knowledge after two school years, even after taking into consideration prior rational number knowledge (through the use of residualized SFOR scores), arithmetic fluency, and non-verbal intelligence. Furthermore, those participants with higher-than-expected SFOR scores improved significantly more on magnitude representation and density concepts over the four time points. These results indicate that SFOR tendency is a strong predictor of rational number conceptual development in late primary school children. The results of the six studies reveal that within children’s existing mathematical competences there can be identified a spontaneous quantitative focusing tendency named spontaneous focusing on quantitative relations. Furthermore, this tendency is found to play a role in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge in primary school children. Results suggest that conceptual change with the magnitude representations and density of rational numbers is rare among this group of students. However, those children who are more likely to notice and use quantitative relations in situations that are not explicitly mathematical seem to have an advantage in the development of rational number conceptual knowledge. It may be that these students gain quantitative more and qualitatively better self-initiated deliberate practice with quantitative relations in everyday situations due to an increased SFOR tendency. This suggests that it may be important to promote this type of mathematical activity in teaching rational numbers. Furthermore, these results suggest that there may be a series of spontaneous quantitative focusing tendencies that have an impact on mathematical development throughout the learning trajectory.

Energy-efficient control strategies for variable speed driven parallel pumping systems based on pump operation point monitoring with frequency converters

The pumping processes requiring wide range of flow are often equipped with parallelconnected centrifugal pumps. In parallel pumping systems, the use of variable speed control allows that the required output for the process can be delivered with a varying number of operated pump units and selected rotational speed references. However, the optimization of the parallel-connected rotational speed controlled pump units often requires adaptive modelling of both parallel pump characteristics and the surrounding system in varying operation conditions. The available information required for the system modelling in typical parallel pumping applications such as waste water treatment and various cooling and water delivery pumping tasks can be limited, and the lack of real-time operation point monitoring often sets limits for accurate energy efficiency optimization. Hence, alternatives for easily implementable control strategies which can be adopted with minimum system data are necessary. This doctoral thesis concentrates on the methods that allow the energy efficient use of variable speed controlled parallel pumps in system scenarios in which the parallel pump units consist of a centrifugal pump, an electric motor, and a frequency converter. Firstly, the suitable operation conditions for variable speed controlled parallel pumps are studied. Secondly, methods for determining the output of each parallel pump unit using characteristic curve-based operation point estimation with frequency converter are discussed. Thirdly, the implementation of the control strategy based on real-time pump operation point estimation and sub-optimization of each parallel pump unit is studied. The findings of the thesis support the idea that the energy efficiency of the pumping can be increased without the installation of new, more efficient components in the systems by simply adopting suitable control strategies. An easily implementable and adaptive control strategy for variable speed controlled parallel pumping systems can be created by utilizing the pump operation point estimation available in modern frequency converters. Hence, additional real-time flow metering, start-up measurements, and detailed system model are unnecessary, and the pumping task can be fulfilled by determining a speed reference for each parallel-pump unit which suggests the energy efficient operation of the pumping system.

The supermassive binary black hole system OJ287

Abstract This doctoral thesis concerns the active galactic nucleus (AGN) most often referred to with the catalogue number OJ287. The publications in the thesis present new discoveries of the system in the context of a supermassive binary black hole model. In addition, the introduction discusses general characteristics of the OJ287 system and the physical fundamentals behind these characteristics. The place of OJ287 in the hierarchy of known types of AGN is also discussed. The introduction presents a large selection of fundamental physics required to have a basic understanding of active galactic nuclei, binary black holes, relativistic jets and accretion disks. Particularly the general relativistic nature of the orbits of close binaries of supermassive black holes is explored with some detail. Analytic estimates of some of the general relativistic effects in such a binary are presented, as well as numerical methods to calculate the effects more precisely. It is also shown how these results can be applied to the OJ287 system. The binary orbit model forms the basis for models of the recurring optical outbursts in the OJ287 system. In the introduction, two physical outburst models are presented in some detail and compared. The radiation hydrodynamics of the outbursts are discussed and optical light curve predictions are derived. The precursor outbursts studied in Paper III are also presented, and tied into the model of OJ287. To complete the discussion of the observable features of OJ287, the nature of the relativistic jets in the system, and in active galactic nuclei in general, is discussed. Basic physics of relativistic jets are presented, with additional detail added in the form of helical jet models. The results of Papers II, IV and V concerning the jet of OJ287 are presented, and their relation to other facets of the binary black hole model is discussed. As a whole, the introduction serves as a guide, though terse, for the physics and numerical methods required to successfully understand and simulate a close binary of supermassive black holes. For this purpose, the introduction necessarily combines a large number of both fundamental and specific results from broad disciplines like general relativity and radiation hydrodynamics. With the material included in the introduction, the publications of the thesis, which present new results with a much narrower focus, can be readily understood. Of the publications, Paper I presents newly discovered optical data points for OJ287, detected on archival astronomical plates from the Harvard College Observatory. These data points show the 1900 outburst of OJ287 for the first time. In addition, new data points covering the 1913 outburst allowed the determination of the start of the outburst with more precision than was possible before. These outbursts were then successfully numerically modelled with an N-body simulation of the OJ287 binary and accretion disc. In Paper II, mechanisms for the spin-up of the secondary black hole in OJ287 via interaction with the primary accretion disc and the magnetic fields in the system are discussed. Timescales for spin-up and alignment via both processes are estimated. It is found that the secondary black hole likely has a high spin. Paper III reports a new outburst of OJ287 in March 2013. The outburst was found to be rather similar to the ones reported in 1993 and 2004. All these outbursts happened just before the main outburst season, and are called precursor outbursts. In this paper, a mechanism was proposed for the precursor outbursts, where the secondary black hole collides with a gas cloud in the primary accretion disc corona. From this, estimates of brightness and timescales for the precursor were derived, as well as a prediction of the timing of the next precursor outburst. In Paper IV, observations from the 2004–2006 OJ287 observing program are used to investigate the existence of short periodicities in OJ287. The existence of a _50 day quasiperiodic component is confirmed. In addition, statistically significant 250 day and 3.5 day periods are found. Primary black hole accretion of a spiral density wave in the accretion disc is proposed as the source of the 50 day period, with numerical simulations supporting these results. Lorentz contracted jet re-emission is then proposed as the reason for the 3.5 day timescale. Paper V fits optical observations and mm and cm radio observations of OJ287 with a helical jet model. The jet is found to have a spine–sheath structure, with the sheath having a much lower Lorentz gamma factor than the spine. The sheath opening angle and Lorentz factor, as well as the helical wavelength of the jet are reported for the first time. Tiivistelmä Tässä väitöskirjatutkimuksessa on keskitytty tutkimaan aktiivista galaksiydintä OJ287. Väitöskirjan osana olevat tieteelliset julkaisut esittelevät OJ287-systeemistä saatuja uusia tuloksia kaksoismusta-aukkomallin kontekstissa. Väitöskirjan johdannossa käsitellään OJ287:n yleisiä ominaisuuksia ja niitä fysikaalisia perusilmiöitä, jotka näiden ominaisuuksien taustalla vaikuttavat. Johdanto selvittää myös OJ287-järjestelmän sijoittumisen aktiivisten galaksiytimien hierarkiassa. Johdannossa käydään läpi joitakin perusfysiikan tuloksia, jotka ovat tarpeen aktiivisten galaksiydinten, mustien aukkojen binäärien, relativististen suihkujen ja kertymäkiekkojen ymmärtämiseksi. Kahden toisiaan kiertävän mustan aukon keskinäisen radan suhteellisuusteoreettiset perusteet käydään läpi yksityiskohtaisemmin. Johdannossa esitetään joitakin analyyttisiä tuloksia tällaisessa binäärissä havaittavista suhteellisuusteoreettisista ilmiöistä. Myös numeerisia menetelmiä näiden ilmiöiden tarkempaan laskemiseen esitellään. Tuloksia sovelletaan OJ287-systeemiin, ja verrataan havaintoihin. OJ287:n mustien aukkojen ratamalli muodostaa pohjan systeemin toistuvien optisten purkausten malleille. Johdannossa esitellään yksityiskohtaisemmin kaksi fysikaalista purkausmallia, ja vertaillaan niitä. Purkausten säteilyhydrodynamiikka käydään läpi, ja myös ennusteet purkausten valokäyrille johdetaan. Johdannossa esitellään myös Julkaisussa III johdettu prekursoripurkausten malli, ja osoitetaan sen sopivan yhteen OJ287:n binäärimallin kanssa. Johdanto esittelee myös relativististen suihkujen fysiikkaa sekä OJ287- systeemiin liittyen että aktiivisten galaksiydinten kontekstissa yleisesti. Relativististen suihkujen perusfysiikka esitellään, kuten myös malleja kierteisistä suihkuista. Julkaisujen II, IV ja V OJ287-systeemin suihkuja koskevat tulokset esitellään binäärimallin kontekstissa. Kokonaisuutena johdanto palvelee suppeana oppaana, joka esittelee tarvittavan fysiikan ja tarpeelliset numeeriset menetelmät mustien aukkojen binäärijärjestelmän ymmärtämiseen ja simulointiin. Tätä tarkoitusta varten johdanto yhdistää sekä perustuloksia että joitakin syvällisempiä tuloksia laajoilta fysiikan osa-alueilta kuten suhteellisuusteoriasta ja säteilyhydrodynamiikasta. Johdannon sisältämän materiaalin avulla väitöskirjan julkaisut, ja niiden esittämät tulokset, ovat hyvin ymmärrettävissä. Väitöskirjan julkaisuista ensimmäinen esittelee uusia OJ287-systeemistä saatuja havaintopisteitä, jotka on paikallistettu Harvardin yliopiston observatorion arkiston valokuvauslevyiltä. OJ287:n vuonna 1900 tapahtunut purkaus nähdään ensimmäistä kertaa näissä havaintopisteissä. Uudet havaintopisteet mahdollistivat myös vuoden 1913 purkauksen alun ajoittamisen tarkemmin kuin aiemmin oli mahdollista. Havaitut purkaukset mallinnettiin onnistuneesti simuloimalla OJ287-järjestelmän mustien aukkojen paria ja kertymäkiekkoa. Julkaisussa II käsitellään mekanismeja OJ287:n sekundäärisen mustan aukon spinin kasvamiseen vuorovaikutuksessa primäärin kertymäkiekon ja systeemin magneettikenttien kanssa. Julkaisussa arvioidaan maksimispinin saavuttamisen ja spinin suunnan vakiintumisen aikaskaalat kummallakin mekanismilla. Tutkimuksessa havaitaan sekundäärin spinin olevan todennäköisesti suuri. Julkaisu III esittelee OJ287-systeemissä maaliskuussa 2013 tapahtuneen purkauksen. Purkauksen havaittiin muistuttavan vuosina 1993 ja 2004 tapahtuneita purkauksia, joita kutsutaan yhteisnimityksellä prekursoripurkaus (precursor outburst). Julkaisussa esitellään purkauksen synnylle mekanismi, jossa OJ287-systeemin sekundäärinen musta aukko osuu primäärisen mustan aukon kertymäkiekon koronassa olevaan kaasupilveen. Mekanismin avulla johdetaan arviot prekursoripurkausten kirkkaudelle ja aikaskaalalle. Julkaisussa johdetaan myös ennuste seuraavan prekursoripurkauksen ajankohdalle. Julkaisussa IV käytetään vuosina 2004–2006 kerättyjä havaintoja OJ287- systeemistä lyhyiden jaksollisuuksien etsintään. Julkaisussa varmennetaan systeemissä esiintyvä n. 50 päivän kvasiperiodisuus. Lisäksi tilastollisesti merkittävät 250 päivän ja 3,5 päivän jaksollisuudet havaitaan. Julkaisussa esitetään malli, jossa primäärisen mustan aukon kertymäkiekossa oleva spiraalitiheysaalto aiheuttaa 50 päivän jaksollisuuden. Mallista tehty numeerinen simulaatio tukee tulosta. Systeemin relativistisen suihkun emittoima aikadilatoitunut säteily esitetään aiheuttajaksi 3,5 päivän jaksollisuusaikaskaalalle. Julkaisussa V sovitetaan kierresuihkumalli OJ287-systeemistä tehtyihin optisiin havaintoihin ja millimetri- sekä senttimetriaallonpituuden radiohavaintoihin. Suihkun rakenteen havaitaan olevan kaksijakoinen ja koostuvan ytimestä ja kuoresta. Suihkun kuorella on merkittävästi pienempi Lorentzin gamma-tekijä kuin suihkun ytimellä. Kuoren avautumiskulma ja Lorentztekijä sekä suihkun kierteen aallonpituus raportoidaan julkaisussa ensimmäistä kertaa.